Lots of changes are coming over the next few days, but overall, we’re not expecting anything too significant.
We’ve got a sunny and warm afternoon in progress, with a frontal boundary stalled out to the south and high pressure trying to build in from the north. That front will start to lift northward again tonight, bringing some clouds back in along with the threat for a few showers and possibly a rumble of thunder. It will also bring more humid air back in. This will set up a very warm and humid Friday. A few showers and thunderstorms may pop up during the afternoon, but they’ll be widely scattered, and probably won’t be that strong.
Saturday could be a different story. It will be another warm and humid day to start, but a cold front will move across the region. This front will likely produce showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong, but a lot will depend on the timing of the front. If it moves through in the morning or around midday, we’ll just have some garden-variety showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then we’ll start to dry out in the afternoon. If the front doesn’t move through until mid-to-late afternoon, then the atmosphere may have more time to destabilize, and we’ve got a better shot at some stronger thunderstorms. Right now, we’re leaning towards an earlier passage of the front, but obviously we’ll keep an eye on it. High pressure then builds in for Sunday and Monday with much drier and cooler conditions, though some low clouds may move in from the ocean on Saturday.
As for the tropics, Cristobal is still over land, southern Mexico to be specific, and has weakened to a tropical depression. It will continue to produce heavy rain and flooding across the area, but the current forecast calls for it to move back over water on Friday or Saturday, and head northward while strengthening. It will become an increasing threat to the central Gulf Coast by late in the weekend. We’ll have a full blog post about Cristobal and the threat to the Gulf Coast tomorrow.
Thursday night: Becoming mostly cloudy with a chance for some showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Low 60-67.
Friday: More clouds than sunshine, showers and thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon. High 79-86.
Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, some lingering showers along the south coast. Low 62-69.
Saturday: A mix of sunshine and clouds, chance for some more showers and thunderstorms. High 79-86, cooler along the south coast.
Saturday night: Becoming mostly clear and less humid. Low 53-60.
Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 66-73, coolest along the coast.
Sunday night: Becoming mostly clear. Low 49-56.
Monday: Sun, sun, and more sun. High 72-79, a little cooler along the coast.
Storm HQ 