Once again, most of this week will be fair quiet weather-wise. The tropics, however, are not going to be quiet.
High pressure remains in control for the first half of the week with warm and increasingly humid conditions. While the humidity levels will be on the rise, it won’t be oppressive, certainly not like it was earlier in the summer. Temperatures will likely be near or over 90 degrees for the next few days inland, but a seabreeze will keep coastal areas cooler each afternoon. We could see a shower or thunderstorm across inland areas Wednesday, but otherwise, it should remain dry. A cold front will move in on Thursday, likely producing some showers and thunderstorms, along with some cooler weather. Temperatures on Thursday will be dependent on the timing of the front and the associated thunderstorms. A later arriving front likely means another day of 90-degress temperatures inland, but and earlier-arriving front would prevent that. High pressure builds back in with drier and cooler conditions on Friday. As the high slides off to the east, warmer weather will return for the weekend.
Now we’ll talk about the tropics. As you may have seen from all the Facebook Forecasters out there, Major Hurricane Erin is going to wipe out the East Coast in about 10 days. Well, that’s what a few of the models have shown at times over the past several days, and since the models show it, that’s what’s going to happen, because the models are always spot on 10 or more days in advance, right? Now, we’ll give you some real data. There is a strong tropical wave that moved off the west coast of Africa a few days ago. It has been fighting off some dry air and is over water that isn’t quite warm enough to sustain a tropical system, but it has shown some signs of organization in the past day or so. In fact, by the time some of you read this the National Hurricane Center may have already declared the system Tropical Depression 5. It will pass close to or over the Cabo Verde Islands today and then head in a general westward direction, likely strengthening as it does. The strengthening should be slow and steady as the system spending the next 5 day or so over the open waters of the Atlantic, and it will probably get upgraded to Tropical Storm Erin over the next day or two. It could become a hurricane later this week or next weekend. At that point, it should be approaching the longitude roughly near the Lesser Antilles. Most (but not all) of the models show the system passing north of the Islands, but that does not mean they are safe yet. However, around that point is an important spot to watch what the storm is doing. Some models show it turning more toward the northwest or even north at that point and heading out to sea (though possibly threatening Bermuda), while other models show it continuing off toward the west-northwest or even west. This would increase the threat to the Bahamas (and possibly the Greater Antilles). Of course, this is all still a week away, at which point the average error in the models is several hundred miles, so this really is just pure speculation. We won’t even get into how strong it might be, as intensity forecasts in the models are notoriously poor. For now, we’ll just say that it’s something to keep an eye on, but don’t worry about yet. *IF* it were to become a threat to the East Coast (and that’s a very big IF), we’ll give you plenty of advance notice. We’re not here for hype or page clicks (like the Facebook Forecasters), we’re here to give you a true look at what’s going on. We’ll likely be writing special blogs about this system (and the rest of the tropics) at various times this week. For now, ignore the noise, and listen to a trusted source, not one that picks out the scariest looking forecast model for 10 days from now and insists that is exactly what is going to happen (because it almost certainly won’t).
Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 88-95, a little cooler along the coast.
Monday night: Clear skies. Low 65-72.
Tuesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 90-97, cooler along the coast.
Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 65-72.
Wednesday: Sunshine gives way to increasing afternoon clouds, chance for a late-day shower or thunderstorm, humid. High 86-93, cooler along the coast.
Wednesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 67-74.
Thursday: Partly sunny, showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. High 83-90, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Thursday night: Becoming clear. Low 62-69.
Friday: Sunny, drier. High 78-85, coolest near the coast.
Saturday: More sunshine. High 81-88, a little cooler along the coast.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 86-93, cooler along the coast.
Storm HQ 