A pair of storm systems will impact our weather over the next few days, but mostly with rain, not snow.
It’s been fairly dry so far this winter, so we’re still experiencing drought conditions across much of the region. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.
High pressure will slide off to the east tonight, with winds shifting into the southwest, bringing some milder air in. Friday will be relatively mild (by January standards), but clouds will be streaming in ahead of a low pressure system headed for the Great Lakes. As that system moves into Quebec some showers are likely ahead of it Friday evening before a cold front moves through overnight. That front will stall out south of New England allowing some cooler air to move back in. Meanwhile, another low pressure system will head towards the Great Lakes, trying to bring that front back northward as a warm front. As that system moves into Ontario, a secondary low pressure system will develop off the Mid-Atlantic coastline., preventing that warm front from moving in, and giving the new low pressure area a path eastward. This will bring more substantial and widespread rain in for late Saturday into Sunday morning. However, with the cold air in place, precipitation may start as some sleet or freezing rain well north and west of Boston, mainly interior southern New Hampshire and northern Worcester County, as the rain moves in later Saturday. A few additional rain or snow showers in the afternoon as an upper-level low pressure area crosses the Northeast, then high pressure builds in for Monday with cooler and drier conditions. For the Patriots game Sunday evening, it should be mostly cloudy at kickoff, winds out of the northwest at 5-10 mph, with a game time temperature around 37, dropping into the lower 30s by the end of the game.
Much of the area could receive between half an inch and one inch of rainfall this weekend. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Thursday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 22-29.
Friday: More clouds than sun, becoming breezy in the afternoon, showers possible towards evening. High 41-48.
Friday night: Cloudy with showers likely, mainly before midnight. Temperatures continue to rise until midnight, then drop to 33-40 by daybreak.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with rain developing from southwest to northeast, possibly starting as some sleet or freezing rain well north and west of Boston. High 40-47.
Saturday night: Any mixed precipitation changes to all well rain north and west of Boston, periods of rain elsewhere. Low 33-40.
Sunday: Rain ends by midday, mostly cloudy with a few more rain or snow showers possible late in the day. High 38-45.
Despite the wet start to the weekend, drier weather is expected for much of the time.
A healthy drink of water tonight will help put a dent on the drought. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Low pressure moving up the Appalachians will bring some rain into the region this evening, possibly heavy at times for a while. As the system lifts northward, the rain will taper off and end from south to north before daybreak as temperatures rise thanks to increasing southwest winds. Temperatures may top 60 Friday morning in many areas before the storm drags a cold front across the region. Gusty west winds will usher cooler air in, with temperatures dropping through the afternoon. High pressure builds in for the weekend, but with an upper-level low moving through we’ll still have some clouds at times, and winds will remain gusty on Saturday. By Monday, we’ll see clouds start to move back in ahead of a fast-moving storm system moving out of the Great Lakes, with some showers possible at night.
Wind gusts of 30-40 mph or higher are likely across the region Friday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Thursday night: Rain likely, possibly heavy for a while through the evening, ending before daybreak, breezy. Low 48-55.
Friday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, windy. High 54-61 in the morning, temperatures drop in the afternoon.
Friday night: Partly cloudy, breezy. Low 39-46.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy. High 50-57.
Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 31-38, a little milder across Cape Cod.
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 48-55.
Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 30-37, a little milder across Cape Cod.
Despite last week’s heavy rain, we’re still in a drought for much of the region and really need more rain. Well, we are going to get some today.
A cold front will produce showers and thunderstorms this morning as it moves through. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com
A strong cold front will cross the region this morning. Ahead of this front we can expect some heavy rain, maybe a rumble of thunder, and some gusty winds. While this could have some impacts on the morning commute, it will be short-lived, as the rain should end with the front moving offshore by early afternoon. Gusty west winds behind the front will send temperatures downward through the afternoon. We’ll clear out at night as high pressure builds in, giving us some sunshine on Tuesday, but clouds will quickly return Tuesday night ahead of another cold front. This one will produce more showers Wednesday morning, but it will also move through fairly quickly, with skies starting to clear out in the afternoon. High pressure then builds in with cooler weather for the end of the week, but with an upper-level low moving in, we’ll see some clouds each day, and possibly a few showers at times. The upper-level low lifts out over the weekend as high pressure moves overhead with dry and cool conditions.
Temperatures will be below normal for the end of the week and the weekend. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Monday: Rain likely during the morning, possibly heavy at times, ending from west to east by early afternoon, skies start to clear out late in the day, breezy, especially during the morning and early afternoon. High 60-67 in the morning, temperatures start falling in the afternoon.
Monday night: Becoming partly cloudy to clear with diminishing winds. Low 44-51.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, some clouds start to move back in late in the day. High 58-65.
Tuesday night: Becoming mostly cloudy with showers developing before daybreak. Low 47-54, temperatures may rise a little overnight.
Wednesday: Showers likely during the morning, ending by early afternoon, followed by clearing late in the day, breezy. High 60-67.
Wednesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 40-47.
Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, a sprinkle is possible, breezy, cooler. High 54-61.
Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 37-44.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a shower. High 52-59.
Some nice weather is on the way for most of the weekend, but more rain is in our future.
Low pressure south of Nova Scotia continues to send clouds into eastern New England. loop provided by College of DuPage.
Our stubborn ocean storm will finally lose its influence on the region tonight with winds diminishing as high pressure builds in from the west. There might still be a few showers across parts of Cape Cod, but otherwise it will remain dry with skies becoming clear across the area. As the high slowly crosses the region we’ll have sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures on Friday. By Saturday, we’ll see temperatures start to moderate, but also some clouds starting to move in ahead of a low pressure area moving into the Great Lakes. Sunday looks like the pick of the weekend with some sunshine in the morning, but clouds start to increase and thicken up during the afternoon. Increasing southwest winds will send temperatures well into the 60s with some spots possibly topping 70. As the front continues to advance eastward, we’ll see some showers developing late Sunday night, likely continuing for a good chunk of Monday until the front pushes offshore.
Monday’s rainfall will be helpful, but we need a lot more to break the drought. Image provided by weathermodels.com
Thursday night: Plenty of clouds with a few showers across Cape Cod, becoming clear elsewhere, breezy along the coast. Low 37-44, milder across Cape Cod.
Friday: Clearing across Cape Cod, plenty of sunshine elsewhere. High 55-62.
Friday night: Clear skies. Low 36-43, milder across Cape Cod.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with some afternoon high clouds. High 57-64.
Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Low 41-48.
Sunday: Some morning sun, then increasing and thickening clouds, breezy and milder. High 62-69.
Sunday night: Cloudy with showers developing. Low 50-57.
Monday: Periods of rain and showers, breezy. High 58-65.
Some slow improvement is expected as the week goes on, but the start of the week will be rather nasty.
Low pressure will remain off the East Coast for much of the week. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
Low pressure continues to meander around off the Mid-Atlantic coast today, with more rain, some of it heavy, strong winds, especially near the coast, and coastal flooding around the time of high tide, especially along east and northeast-facing coastlines. The low will start to drift eastward on Tuesday, with rain tapering off to showers and eventually ending, and winds slowly dying down, but it still won’t be a great day. By Wednesday the system will be south of Nova Scotia, but an upper-level low will move into the Northeast, keeping the clouds and cool temperatures around, with a few showers or some drizzle possible, especially near the coast, as north to northeast winds will remain gusty off the Atlantic. Thursday won’t be that much different than Wednesday as the upper low only slowly moves eastward.
Much of the region will pick up another 1-2″ (or more) of much needed rain before it ends. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
We finally start to see some improvement by Friday as high pressure continues to build in at the surface, but also aloft. Saturday looks to be the pick of the week with sunshine and milder temperatures with high pressure in control. Sunday will be a warmer day, but we won’t see as much sunshine. Low pressure moving into the Great Lakes will send some clouds into the region. Whether we see any showers before the end of the day is still a question mark, but for now, it looks like most of the day should remain dry.
Temperatures could approach or exceed 70 on Sunday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Monday: Windy with rain, heavy at times. High 51-58, a little milder across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod.
Monday night: Breezy, rain tapers off to showers. Low 46-53, a little milder across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod.
Tuesday: Cloudy and breezy with more showers, tapering off during the afternoon from west to east. High 55-62.
Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers ending in the evening in eastern areas, winds diminish. Low 45-52.
Wednesday: More clouds than sun, breezy, chance for a few showers or drizzle near the coast. High 58-65.
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy, breezy, a few showers are drizzle along the coast. Low 37-44.
Thursday: Intervals of clouds and sun, breezy, another shower or some drizzle possible near the coast. High 51-58.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy, breezy. Low 36-43.
Friday: Mostly sunny, breezy in the morning. High 55-62.
Saturday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 58-65.
Sunday: Partly sunny, showers possible late in the day. High 64-71.
We’ve had warm and dry weather for much of the past few months, but that is going to change this weekend.
Freeze Warnings (dark blue) and Frost Advisories (light blue) are in effect for much of the Northeast. Image provided by the National Weather Service.
A large area of high pressure will settle across the region tonight, bringing us clear skies and light winds – the ideal setup for radiational cooling. As a result, we’re looking at the coolest night so far this fall, with widespread frost away from the coast and urban areas, with a freeze expected in the normally colder locations. Friday will feature plenty of sunshine, but we’ll remain on the cool side. As the high starts to slide off to the south and east, winds will shift into the southwest Friday night, so we won’t be as chilly as tonight. Saturday should be a milder day, but we’ll see clouds starting to move in as moisture streams northward from a low pressure area developing off the Carolina coast. That system will drift northward Sunday and Monday, but won’t get this far north, though it will still have a significant impact on the region.
A developing low pressure will impact much of the East Coast this weekend. Loop provided by WeatherBell.
We’ll see rain spreading northward from the system, likely moving in from south to north Sunday afternoon and evening. How far north the rain gets is still a bit of a question mark, but it looks like most of the region should receive some much-needed rainfall. How much rainfall is also a question, but at this point it looks like the heaviest rain will be near the South Coast and also east-facing coastal areas, which some spots could see 1-2 inches of rain, possibly more, before everything starts to wind down on Tuesday.
Some models show the potential for very heavy rainfall with this system. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Rain isn’t the only impact from this system though. The pressure gradient between the developing low to the south and high pressure to the north will result in gusty east to northeast winds, especially near the coast, where some gusts in excess of 40 mph are possible, especially later Sunday into Monday. In addition, with tides still near the astronomical high for the month, persistent onshore gusty winds will result in some areas of coastal flooding, especially along east and northeast facing locations. Oh, and the combination of cloudcover, rainfall, and winds, will keep temperatures on the cool side again, especially on Monday.
Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are possible, especially near the coast, Sunday night and Monday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Thursday night: Clear and chilly. Low 29-36, milder along the coast and in urban areas.
Friday: Plenty of sunshine. High 56-63.
Friday night: Clear during the evening, some clouds start to filter in from south to north after midnight. Low 38-45, a little milder along the coast and in urban areas.
Saturday: Partly sunny, clouds start to thicken up late in the day. High 60-67.
Saturday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 44-51.
Sunday: Cloudy and becoming windy with rain developing from south to north. High 57-64.
Sunday night: Cloudy and windy with rain likely, possibly heavy at times. Low 48-55.
Monday: Cloudy and windy with more rain, possibly heavy at times. High 54-61, a little milder near the South Coast and Cape Cod.
It’s going to feel like summer for a few more days, but you’ll be trading the flip-flops for sweatshirts later this week.
Temperatures should reach the lower to middle 80s this afternoon well away from the South Coast. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
High pressure remains on control to start the week with more sunshine and unseasonably warm temperatures. Many locations away from the South Coast will top 80 again today, with a seabreeze keeping the South Coast and Cape Cod in the 70s. Tuesday looks like another warm day with gusty southwest winds, but clouds will be on the increase ahead of an approaching cold front. That front will bring in some much-needed rain late Tuesday night into Wednesday, with temperatures getting back closer to normal for early October thanks to the cloudcover and rain. The front settles offshore later Wednesday and high pressure starts to build back in. Much cooler air moves in for Thursday, with many spots likely staying in the 50s all day.
Temperatures Thursday morning will be 15-20 degrees cooler than Wednesday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.
We’ll stay on the cooler side for Friday and Saturday, but temperatures will be a little closer to normal, as winds shift back into the southwest with the high sliding offshore. Sunday is a bit of a question mark at this point. A low pressure area will be developing off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Some models try and bring it northward, bringing in some additional much-needed rain, while other models have it stay off to the south with the high to the north blocking it. We’re going to lean toward the latter scenario for now (“When in drought, leave it out”), but this is something we’ll be keeping an eye on as the week progresses.
Will Sunday be wet or dry? It’s too early to tell. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Patchy morning fog, otherwise plenty of sunshine with a few afternoon clouds. High 79-86, except 71-78 across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy with a little patchy fog again. Low 53-60.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, increasing and thickening clouds in the afternoon, breezy. High 74-81, a little cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy, showers developing after midnight. Low 57-64.
Wednesday: Rain likely during the morning, tapering off from northwest to southeast during the afternoon, some clearing late in the day, especially north and west of Boston, breezy. High 63-70 in the morning, temperatures start dropping in the afternoon.
Wednesday night: Becoming clear. Low 38-45, a little milder across Cape Cod.
Thursday: Lots of sunshine. High 54-61.
Thursday night: Clear skies. Low 33-40, a little milder in urban areas and across Cape Cod.
Friday: Mostly sunny. High 57-64.
Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 60-67.
Sunday: More clouds than sun with a chance for showers, especially late in the day, becoming breezy. High 58-65.
We’ve got some absolutely glorious weather coming up for the weekend.
It’s been very dry across the region over the past 3 months, and that won’t change this weekend. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.
A large area of high pressure will sink southward over the next few days. With it right overhead tonight, we’ll have clear skies and light winds – the recipe for radiational cooling. It will be quite chilly tonight, with lows mainly in the 40s with upper 30s in the cold spots. A few patches of frost are possible in spots as well. After that, as the high continues to move southward we’ll see winds shift into the west and southwest, bringing warmer air in for the entire weekend with plenty of sunshine each day. Coastal areas may still a little cooler with afternoon seabreezes, but inland temperatures could top 80 during Saturday, Sunday and Monday.
Temperatures will be well above normal this weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy and chilly. Low 39-46.
There’s a four letter word that begins with the letter R and rhymes with main that we really need, but you won’t find it in our forecast for the next week.
None of the models are forecasting any rain around here for the next 7 days. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
The week starts off with high pressure in control, keeping us rather mild for the end of the September. A cold front will move through on Tuesday, but only a few clouds will accompany it. Behind it, strong high pressure builds in with gusty north to northeast winds bringing much cooler air in for Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, with Hurricane Humberto and Tropical Storm Imelda well offshore (more on them in a moment), the gradient between the large high and those systems will result in gusty winds towards the middle of the week. By the end of the week and the weekend, the high will slide off to the south, keeping us dry, but with temperatures getting back to near to above normal levels.
Temperatures will turn above normal once again for the end of the week and the weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Meanwhile, as previously mentioned, we have both Hurricane Humberto and Tropical Storm Imelda in the Atlantic at this time. While both storms could bring some adverse weather to Bermuda over the next few days, and they will both generate rough surf for the East Coast, they should both stay offshore, much to dismay of the Facebook Forecasters everywhere who were tossing around phrases like “Fujiwara Effect” without actually understanding what it meant.
Tropical Storm Imelda (lower left) and Hurricane Humberto (lower right) continue to churn up the Atlantic. Loop provided by NOAA.
As of 2am Monday, Hurricane Humberto was centered about 400 miles south-southwest of Bermuda, moving toward the northwest at 14 mph. After reaching Category 5 strength over the weekend, the storm was still a Category 4 system with maximum sustained winds near 140 mph. Humberto should turn northward passing west of Bermuda Monday night and Tuesday before turning northeastward. Humberto may produce some gusty winds and heavy rain across Bermuda, which is why a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. By Wednesday, Humberto will transition into an extratropical storm as it heads east-northeastward into the open waters of the Atlantic.
Forecast track for Hurricane Humberto. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Closer to the East Coast is Tropical Storm Imelda, crossing the Bahamas early this morning while moving northward at 8 mph. Imelda has maximum sustained winds near 45 mph, and has been very slow to get organized. It will continue to bring squally conditions to the northwestern and central Bahamas on Monday where a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. As Imelda heads northward, some heavy rain may impact coastal portions of the Carolinas. By Tuesday, the storm should make a hard right turn and pull away from the coast, while strengthening, possibly becoming a hurricane by midweek. The current forecast calls for Imelda to pass very close to Bermuda Wednesday night or Thursday as a hurricane, making for a very rough week for the British Overseas Territory. After that, it should also become an extratropical storm over the open waters of the Central Atlantic.
Imelda could become a threat to Bermuda later this week. Image provided by Polar Wx.
Monday: Sunshine dimmed by some afternoon high clouds. High 73-80.
Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 54-61.
Tuesday: Partly sunny. High 70-77.
Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy, becoming breezy. Low 44-51.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, breezy, cooler. High 59-66.
Wednesday night: Clear skies, breezy along the coast. Low 38-45.
Thursday: Plenty of sunshine, breezy in the morning. High 57-64.
Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 38-45.
Quieter weather is on the way for the weekend around here, but the Atlantic is anything but quiet right now.
There are two active storms in the Atlantic, and a third one could form soon. Loop provided by NOAA.
A cold front will push offshore tonight, with the much-needed rain finally coming to an end. However, that front is going to stall out south of New England, so skies will only slowly start to clear out on Friday as high pressure builds in. Saturday looks to be a pretty nice day with sunshine and mild temperatures, however, another wave riding along that stalled out front will send some clouds back in by late in the day. While most of the rain associated with that wave will stay offshore, there is the chance that some showers could reach the South Coast Saturday night and early Sunday. As that wave starts to pull away on Sunday skies will only slowly clear out. High pressure returns on Monday with more sunshine and mild temperatures.
Most of the models keep the rain near or off the South Coast Saturday night and early Sunday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Meanwhile, in the Atlantic, we have two named storms and a third that likely will be named in the next few days. We’ll start with Hurricane Gabrielle, which still has maximum sustained winds near 75 mph. It is centered about 385 miles west of the Azores, moving toward the east at 31 mph. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Azores at this time. Gabrielle will cross the Azores tonight and early Friday, then will likely become extratropical and weaken over cooler waters as it approaches the coast of Portugal this weekend.
Radar from the Azores shows Hurricane Gabrielle approaching the islands. Loop provided by Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School.
A little closer to home is Tropical Storm Humberto, which now has maximum sustained winds near 50 mph. It is centered about 465 miles east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving toward the northwest at 8 mph. Humberto is expected to strengthen into a hurricane on Friday, and could become a pretty potent storm this weekend as it passes well north of the Greater Antilles. The current forecast shows that it should turn more toward the northwest and eventually north as it reaches the western edge of a ridge of high pressure, passing west of Bermuda early next week. However, Humberto’s future isn’t quite that simple. We’ll get into that a bit more later.
Forecast track for Tropical Storm Humberto. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
The more immediate concern is with a tropical wave crossing Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos this afternoon. This system has been producing squally conditions across the northeastern Caribbean for the past day or two, and will continue to do so as it moves northwestward over the next few days. The system could consolidate into an area of low pressure tonight or Friday as it moves into the Bahamas. The storm may become a tropical depression or tropical storm this weekend, and if it does, it would be named Imelda. The future of this system is a lot murkier than the others. It will be traversing the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and upper-level conditions should be favorable, so the system could intensify pretty rapidly, but where it goes is still a giant question mark. Forecast models always struggle with systems that haven’t developed yet, and they already have a wide range of solutions for this system. Complicating that is the fact the Humberto will not be that far away, and there is the potential for the storms to interact with each other. This could alter the tracks of both storms,, making for even higher uncertainty that usual.
There is a considerable amount of uncertainty where the system goes once it gets past the Bahamas. Image provided by Polar Wx.
While the track will obviously dictate what effects this system would have on land, there are bigger concerns. A frontal system will stall out near the region, bringing some heavy rain into parts of the Mid-Atlantic states and the Carolinas. With this system likely to be at least nearby for a couple of days to start the week, there is the potential for some very heavy rain across parts of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states. In fact, some models show the potential for as much as 5-10 inches (or more) of rain over the next week. While the region has been in a drought, that much rain at once will likely lead to widespread significant flooding. Parts of this region experienced devastating flooding just one year ago from Hurricane Helene, and still have not recovered. This would be a significant setback to those recovery efforts.
Most of the models show some significant rainfall for the Carolinas over the next week. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Friday: Morning clouds give way to some afternoon sunshine. High 74-81.
Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 55-62.
Saturday: Morning sun, then clouds return in the afternoon. High 71-78, coolest along the coast.
Saturday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers, mainly near the South Coast. Low 55-62.
Sunday: Any linger showers near the South Coast end early, otherwise plenty of clouds with some afternoon sun developing, especially north of the Mass Pike. High 73-80.
Storm HQ 