This week will be the coolest week we’ve had around here in the past six months.
Temperatures will be below normal for much of the upcoming week. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
We’re starting the week off on a damp note with a low pressure system crossing the region, generating a few more showers, mainly during the morning hours today. We’ll start to clear out behind a cold front this afternoon, with gusty northwest winds developing. We may turn mild this afternoon, with parts of the region topping 60, especially south of Boston, but much cooler air will settle in behind the front tonight. High pressure builds in with dry and cool conditions for Tuesday into Thursday, but with an upper-level low moving across the Northeast, it will remain breezy, with a few clouds around at times. In addition, the onshore flow around the high pressure area may bring a few clouds and even a shower or two into coastal areas. To our north, this upper-level low will generate some snow showers across parts of Northern New England, especially in the mountains, but that’s not a concern around here. As the high slides off to the east, temperatures should start to moderate at the end of the week. Another frontal system may move in for the end of the weekend, but for now, it doesn’t look like it will have much moisture to work with.
It’s getting toward that time of year. Some snow is likely in the mountains this week. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Monday: Cloudy and becoming breezy with showers ending by early afternoon, skies start to clear out late in the day. High 52-59 north of the Mass Pike, 60-67 south of the Pike.
Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 34-41.
Tuesday: Sunshine with some afternoon clouds, breezy, and cooler, slight chance for an afternoon shower near the coast. High 49-56.
Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 34-41.
Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a shower along the coast. High 48-55.
Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny, another shower possible near the coastline. High 52-59.
A good portion of the upcoming week will feature cool and dry weather. Meanwhile, all eyes are turning to Hurricane Milton in the Gulf of Mexico.
Temperatures will be below normal for the next several days across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.
A cold front will cross the region today with some showers likely. While we need the rain, as we’re starting to slip into a drought, this will not be nearly enough rain to alleviate it. The front moves offshore late today, then we’ll clear out and turn cooler for Tuesday. With clear skies and light winds Tuesday night, some patchy frost is possible in the normally colder locations, especially well north and west of Boston. Another front moves through on Wednesday with little fanfare, but it will bring even cooler weather in for Thursday, when many locations likely won’t reach 60 for a high temperature. High pressure then slides offshore, allowing temperatures to moderate a little on Friday, and even more on Saturday, when many places may top 70 again. Another system may bring in some cooler and unsettled conditions for late Sunday and Columbus Day.
Rainfall has been well below normal for a few months now, and we’re not going to get much help this week. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Meanwhile, the tropics remain active with three hurricanes, but one of them is a significant threat to land. As of 5am, Hurricane Milton was centered about 750 miles west-southwest of Tampa, Florida, moving toward the east-southeast at 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 100 mph. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for parts of the Yucatan Peninsula, and Hurricane Watches are in effect for much of western Florida. Milton is expected to continue to strengthen for the next day or so, likely reaching Category 4 intensity as it turns more toward the northeast. However, by later Tuesday, upper-level conditions will become more hostile, and Milton should start to weaken, and in fact, could weaken rather quickly. However, it will still likely make landfall along the Florida Gulf Coast late Wednesday or early Thursday, but exactly where landfall will happen is still a question mark, and a fairly significant one. The strongest winds and highest storm surge will be to the right of the center. Some models bring the storm in near or north of Tampa, others to the south. A track south of Tampa means offshore winds for Tampa Bay, and not only would the storm surge be a lot less, it could actually send much of the water out of the Bay. However, a track just to the north of Tampa sends all the surge into the Bay, which would be very bad for the Tampa area. No matter where it makes landfall, it will bring additional heavy rain to much of Florida, with strong winds well inland. Once it makes landfall, it should continue to steadily weaken, and become extratropical as it moves off the east coast of Florida and into the Atlantic.
Hurricane Milton continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Loop provided by NOAA.
Well out in the Atlantic, we have Hurricanes Kirk and Leslie. As of 5am, Kirk still had maximum sustained winds near 75 mph, and was centered about 765 miles west-northwest of the Azores, moving toward the northeast at 30 mph. Kirk is expected to become extratropical later today as it heads eastward, and will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of northwestern Europe later this week. Meanwhile, Hurricane Leslie is centered about 1065 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, heading northwestward at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 90 mph. Leslie is expected to continue northwestward over open water this week while slowly weakening.
The tropics remain active today. Image provided by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.
Monday: Cloudy with showers likely, ending late in the day. High 60-67.
Monday night: Clearing. Low 43-50.
Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 59-66.
Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 38-45.
Wednesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 58-65.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and cool. High 54-61.
Friday: Lots of sunshine. High 58-65.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and milder. High 66-73.
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, showers possible at night. High 61-68.
Columbus Day: Partly to mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance for showers. High 53-60.
We’re flipping the calendar to October, but it will remain fairly mild around here this week and pretty active in the tropics.
Friday looks like the pick of the week with temperatures well into the 70s for much of the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.
The week starts off with high pressure in control, keeping us dry and seasonably cool, but sunshine will be limited. The combination of east to northeast winds off the Atlantic and high clouds streaming in from what’s left of Helene will result in gray skies for the most part, with a little fog developing each morning as well. A cold front moves in on Wednesday, but it will only be accompanied by a few showers, so much of the region may remain dry once again, but temperatures should turn milder with southwest winds ahead of the front. High pressure builds in behind the front with clearing and mild temperatures for Thursday and Friday. Another cold front will move early in the weekend with some more showers, then high pressure returns for the end of the weekend.
The tropics remain active to start the week. Images provided by the National Hurricane Center.
As for the tropics, we have three active systems right now, and another could be on the way. Tropical Storm Isaac was centered about 515 miles north-northwest of the Azores as of 5am Monday, moving toward the east-northeast at 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds were down to 65mph. Isaac should become extratropical later today while heading northeastward over the open waters of the North Atlantic. Tropical Depression Joyce is centered about 910 miles east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving toward the west at 2mph. Maximum sustained winds were down to 35 mph, and the storm is expected to turn northward and dissipate over open water in the next day or two. Tropical Depression 12 is centered about 690 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving toward the west at 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph. The system should quickly strengthen, becoming a tropical storm later today, and a hurricane in the next couple of days. It could become a rather potent storm later this week, but it should turn more toward the northwest, not impacting any land areas at all.
Tropical Depression 12 is getting better organized this morning. Loop provided by NOAA.
There are two other areas we’re keeping an eye on this week. The first is the western Caribbean, where there is a mass of disorganized showers and thunderstorms this morning, but forecast models show the potential for them to organize into a system over the next few days. Assuming it develops, it could move into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, but it’s far too early to speculate on where it may go beyond that, or how strong it might be, as there isn’t a system yet to track. The other area is a tropical wave that just moved off the west coast of Africa. There’s not much too it right now, but forecast models show the potential for it to develop as it moves westward across the Atlantic later this week.
The various members of the ECMWF Ensemble show the Atlantic remaining active over the next two weeks. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com.
Monday: Areas of morning fog, then intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 67-74.
Monday night: Mostly cloudy with some patchy fog. Low 51-58.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy. High 62-69.
Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 49-56.
Wednesday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a shower. High 62-69.
Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 68-75.
Friday: Partly sunny, showers possible at night. High 71-78.
Saturday: Chance for morning showers, then becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 66-73.
Sunday was the first day of fall, and we’ll have some fall weather for most of the upcoming week.
Temperatures will be a little cooler than normal over the next several days. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
The low pressure system that brought all the rain and cool weather to the region over the weekend has drifted off to the south, and high pressure has built in from the north, which will bring us some drier weather for the next few days. However, the flow in between the two systems will result in northeast winds, keeping us cool, while also keeping some clouds around. By Wednesday, we’ll see a frontal system start to approach from the west, bringing more clouds in. It looks like most of the rain should hold off until night time, so Wednesday should be another dry day. That system will be a slow mover though, so another wet day is likely on Thursday. High pressure builds in for Friday and the weekend with drier air, but it’s not as simple as that may sound.
The models are in good agreement that we should get some beneficial rainfall Wednesday night and Thursday. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
A tropical system is likely to develop in the Gulf of Mexico over the next day or two, and forecast models show it becoming a formidable system before landfall somewhere between New Orleans and Tampa later this week. Once inland, it will rapidly weaken, but the moisture from it will stream northward. Some models have the high pressure area block that moisture from getting up here, while other models have it get close, possibly to the South Coast, before the high blocks any farther progress northward. So, for now, our forecast is for dry weather next weekend, but that could change by the time we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.
Most of the Ensemble members are in good agreement on a track toward the Florida Panhandle later this week with a developing tropical system. Loop provided by Tomer Burg.
Monday: More clouds than sunshine, breezy near the coast. High 60-67.
Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 48-55.
Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sun, breezy near the coast. High 61-68.
Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 50-57.
Wednesday: Plenty of clouds, slight chance for a shower during the day, more likely at night. High 62-69.
Thursday: Cloudy with showers likely, ending late in the day. High 64-71.
A couple more dry and warm days are coming up, but changes are coming later this week.
Much cooler weather is expected to move in by next weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
High pressure remains in control to start the week with more sunshine and warm temperatures, though a seabreeze will keep coastal areas a little cooler. We’ll also see some high clouds start to filter the sunshine today as they stream northward from a low pressure system near the Carolinas. Clouds will continue to increase and thicken on Tuesday as that system pushes farther inland across the Carolinas, but we’ll remain dry and warm. On Wednesday, the high moves out, but it should keep enough dry air in place to prevent the rain from moving in as the low pressure system continues moving into the Mid-Atlantic states. That low will start to head eastward, spreading some rain in for Wednesday night and Thursday, but how far north the rain gets is still a big question mark. There’s a decent chance that areas north of the Mass Pike could remain dry the entire time, while there is the potential for some heavy rain as you get close to the South Coast. Exactly where this battlezone sets up will be the key to the forecast, as we’ll go from dry to very wet in just a short distance. How quickly the low pulls away is also a question mark, with the potential for rain to linger into early Friday near the South Coast. High pressure should build back in for the weekend with dry and much cooler conditions, but we could have another low pressure area lurking to the south, so we’ll need to keep an eye on that as well.
We’ll go from little to no rain to a lot over a short distance later this week. Exactly where remains to be seen. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Sunshine starts to get dimmed by some afternoon high clouds. High 77-84, cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 50-57.
Tuesday: Increasing and thickening clouds. High 79-86, cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 54-61.
Wednesday: More clouds than sun, showers possible at night, mainly near the South Coast. High 74-81.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy, showers likely, mainly south of the Mass Pike. High 70-77.
Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for more showers, mainly during the morning near the South Coast, breezy, cooler. High 66-73.
Quiet weather is expected for most of the upcoming week.
Much of the region could receive no rain at all this week. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
We start the week off with a weak system moving through. We’ll start the day with some sunshine, but clouds will move in this afternoon, with a few showers late in the day and tonight. After that, high pressure builds in with dry weather for most of the week. Temperatures will turn warm, especially for the second half of the week when the high is offshore. We’re not expecting any records, but much of the region may see highs in the 80s toward the end of the week. A weak front may bring in some cooler weather in during the second half of the weekend, but we’ll have a better idea on that when we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.
Mid to upper 80s Friday? Don’t take the AC out of the window just yet. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Monday: Morning sunshine, then increasing afternoon clouds, chance for a few late-day showers. High 68-75.
Monday night: Mostly cloudy with a few showers around, some clearing late at night. Low 52-59.
We’ve got some rather nice weather coming up for much of the first week of September.
Meteorological Summer will go in the books as one of the Top 10 warmest on record across much of the Northeast. Image provided by the Southeastern Regional Climate Center.
High pressure builds into the Great Lakes today and slowly moves eastward this week. That means we’ve got dry weather through at least Friday, with cool temperatures for the first half of the week, turning milder for the second half, as the high moves offshore and winds shift into the south and southwest. As we get to the end of the week, a slow-moving frontal system will approach the region, bringing an end to our extended stretch of dry weather. Showers are likely on Saturday as a frontal system makes its way into the region. A wave of low pressure may ride along the front, which could bring in some heavier rain, but it’s too early to determine whether that will happen or not. High pressure should build back in for Sunday, but how quickly we clear out will be determined by how quickly the low pressure area pulls away from the region.
Some models show the potential for a very wet Saturday around here. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Some lingering morning clouds, especially near the South Coast, then becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 72-79.
Monday night: Clear and cool. Low 46-53.
Tuesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 67-74.
Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 48-55.
Wednesday: More sunshine. High 72-79.
Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 72-79.
Friday: Partly sunny. High 72-79.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with showers likely, possibly thunderstorms. High 68-75.
Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, any lingering showers end early. High 68-75.
The final week of August could feature some active weather, but Labor Day weekend may not be that bad.
Temperatures could get well into the 80s around here on Wednesday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
We start the week off with what could be a very active day. A weak system will move across the region today, but with a warm and humid airmass present, and some cooler air aloft thanks to a nearby upper-level low pressure system, we’ve got the ingredients in place for showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe this afternoon. Activity should begin to develop towards midday, and become more widespread and potent as it gets into our region. Some of the storms that develop could produce strong to damaging winds, hail, and heavy downpours. Once we get past sunset, activity should diminish and dissipate.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.
High pressure briefly builds in for Tuesday with some sunshine and mild temperatures, but it won’t last too long. Another cold front moves in on Wednesday. How warm we get will depend on the timing of the front, but the potential exists for a very warm and humid day, if the front holds off long enough. The front will be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be strong, again depending on the timing of the front.
Another round of severe storms is possible on Wednesday. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.
Once that front moves through, high pressure builds in with cooler and drier weather for Thursday and Friday. Another system will move in during the weekend with a few showers and thunderstorms possible late Saturday or early Sunday. Behind that front, high pressure returns with sunshine and warm temperatures later Sunday and Labor Day. Another cold front may move in late in the day on Labor Day, with a few showers or thunderstorms possible, but don’t go cancelling any plans just yet. We’ll have a better idea on the timing of that front when we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.
Showers and thunderstorms could move in late Saturday or wait until Saturday night – the models don’t agree on the timing right now. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: A little fog early, otherwise some morning sun, then clouds move in with showers and thunderstorms develop, some could be strong to severe. High 74-81.
Monday night: Showers and storms end in the evening, becoming partly cloudy, patchy fog develops. Low 57-64.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 77-84.
Tuesday night: Clear during the evening, some clouds move in after midnight, showers possible toward daybreak. Low 61-68.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and humid with showers and thunderstorms likely. High 82-89.
Thursday: Morning clouds, then gradual clearing and less humid. High 68-75.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 69-76.
Saturday: More clouds than sun, chance for some late-day showers. High 73-80.
Sunday: Any showers end early, becoming partly sunny. High 76-83.
Labor Day: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a late-day shower or thunderstorm. High 75-82.
That line from “Time Stand Still” by Rush, often describes late August or September around here, and it will for at least part of this week.
Temperatures will be below normal for the next several days. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
We’re starting the week off with a slow-moving cold front making its way across the region, resulting in aa fairly damp Monday with occasional showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. The front moves offshore early Tuesday, with showers coming to an end, and some clearing behind the front by late in the day as high pressure starts to build in. However, an upper-level low pressure system will then settle into the Northeast for Wednesday and Thursday. As a result, both days will start off with some sunshine, then clouds will develop, with a few showers possible each afternoon. Temperatures will be quite cool, with many places likely staying in the 60s for highs. We could even see a few of the normally cooler locations drop into the 40s at night. As the upper low moves out and high pressure slides offshore, we’ll start to warm up for the end of the week and the weekend, with temperatures getting back to near to above normal levels. Another system could move in by the end of the weekend with some unsettled weather, but the more likely scenario is that it holds off until the start of next week.
There may be some downpours today, but most of the models do not show significant rainfall for our area. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Hurricane Ernesto will continue to generate large swells at the beaches for a few more days, so use caution if you have plans near the coast. As of 11pm Sunday, Ernesto was centered about 435 south-southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia, moving off toward the north-northeast at 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 80 mph. Ernesto is expected to turn more toward the northeast and east-northeast today, passing south of Newfoundland tonight as it becomes extratropical.
Ernesto will continue to generate large waves in the North Atlantic for a few more days. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com
Finally, we’d like to acknowledge that today marks the 33rd anniversary of Hurricane Bob making landfall along the South Coast. We’ve had some close calls in the years since then, but have not had a hurricane make landfall in New England or Long Island since Bob. This is the 2nd longest landfall drought on record for the region. Since 1851, 18 hurricanes have made landfall in this area, or one every 9.6 years, so we are very overdue. Of the 18 hurricanes that made landfall in New England or Long Island since 1851, 15 of them have done so between August 19 and September 27, so this is the time of year that we need to be especially vigilant, though the Atlantic looks to remain quiet for at least the next week or so.
Track of Hurricane Bob, August 16-19, 1991. Image provided by the National Weather Service.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with occasional showers, a rumble or two of thunder, and a few breaks of sunshine. High 74-81.
Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a few more showers. Low 57-64.
Tuesday: Any lingering showers end early, some clearing develops late in the day. High 67-74.
Tuesday night: Becoming clear. Low 50-57.
Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few showers. High 65-72.
Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, chance for a shower or two. High 67-74.
If you picked this week to take a vacation, then you’re in luck, because most of the week will feature some fantastic mid-August weather.
Temperatures this week will be pretty close to where they should be in mid-August. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Most of the week will feature seasonably warm temperatures, moderate humidity, and dry weather, with high pressure in control. There are a few exceptions though. One of them is today, when a weak upper-level disturbance moves across the Northeast. It will generate a few more clouds, and possibly a few showers, but they shouldn’t be too widespread. Thursday will be similar with another disturbance generating a few pop-up showers, but again, nothing to cancel outdoor plans over. The weekend is when things become a little more uncertain. A cold front will be moving in from the west. Saturday should be another dry, but likely warm and a bit more humid, day. Sunday, however, may not be as nice, depending on the timing of the front. We could see more clouds and a better chance for showers and thunderstorms, though at least one model delays the front until the beginning of next week, so there’s a chance Sunday could end up dry as well.
Sunday may feature showers or thunderstorms, or maybe it won’t. Depends which model your trust. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Finally, we’ll touch on the tropics. The hype train is already rolling down the tracks about “soon-to-be Ernesto”, and the threat is presents to the East Coast. Well, that’s not exactly the case. Yes, a couple of models a few days ago showed the potential for the storm to threaten the East Coast in about 10 days, but as of now, there is no actual storm to begin with. Sunday evening, the National Hurricane Centered designated the system as “Potential Tropical Cylone Five”. It still has a broad circulation, but it could become a tropical depression later today, assuming it can develop a low-level circulation. Conditions are not that favorable at the moment, but should become more conducive for development later today and Tuesday. The forecast calls for it to cross the Leeward Islands on Tuesday, then across the Virgin Islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, before turning northwestward and then northward. Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the Leeward Islands and the British and US Virgin Islands as well as Puerto Rico. The forecasts calls for it to become a hurricane toward the middle of the week, and with additional strengthening possible, it could become a significant threat to Bermuda by next weekend. Of course, a lot can change between now and then, but at this point, the threat to the East Coast is minimal, despite all the recent hype. We’ll go into more detail on this system in a separate blog post once it has actually developed.
Forecast track for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Monday: A sunny start, then some clouds move in with a few showers possible in the afternoon. High 75-82.
Monday night: Any lingering showers end in the evening, then skies become clear. Low 56-63.
Tuesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 77-84.
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 58-65.
Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 78-85.
Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few showers. High 76-83.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 77-84.
Saturday: Partly sunny, a little more humid, chance for some late-day showers. High 76-83.
Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. High 74-81.
Storm HQ 