The first half of the week will feature some fantastic early fall weather, but the weekend isn’t looking as great.
Temperatures will average 5-10 degrees above normal between now and Friday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
High pressure will dominate the region for the next several days. The result will be sunshine and unseasonably warm temperatures through Wednesday, with clear skies, areas of fog, and mild temperatures at night. Thursday looks warm as well, but we’ll see clouds start to stream in as a cold front begins to approach from the west. Friday will feature a lot of clouds, but it will remain mild. We may see a few showers by late in the day, but most of them should hold off until after dark. Low pressure passes north of the region Friday night and Saturday, dragging the cold front through with some rain likely, but temperatures will turn cooler with the cloudcover and rain. The front moves through late Saturday, bringing an end to the rain, then high pressure builds in for Sunday with much cooler conditions. With an upper-level low also moving in, we’ll still see plenty of clouds, with a few pop-up showers possible.
The potential exists for another rather wet Saturday across the region. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Some clouds and a little fog to start the day, then mostly sunny. High 68-75, coolest near the coast.
Monday night: Clear skies, patchy fog develops. Low 47-54.
Tuesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 77-84.
Tuesday night: Clear skies, more fog developing. Low 55-62.
Wednesday: Sunshine with some afternoon clouds. High 75-82, a little cooler near the coast.
Thursday: A sunny start, clouds start to move in during the afternoon. High 71-78.
Friday: Mostly cloudy, not as warm, a few showers possible in the day, more likely at night. High 67-74.
Saturday: Cloudy and cooler with periods of rain and showers likely, ending overnight. High 64-71.
Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun, breezy, much cooler, chance for a few showers. High 58-65.
We’ve got another complicated forecast coming up for the start of the weekend, but the end isn’t complicated at all.
In between the wildfire smoke to the north and east, and all the moisture to the south, we’ve actually got a rather nice day in progress. Loop provided by NOAA.
High pressure will remain in place across southeastern Canada through the weekend. An upper-level low will move from the Great Lakes toward the Northeast, keeping us on the cool side through Saturday. A disturbance rotating around that low will help spawn a low pressure system off the Mid-Atlantic coastline, where there is still plenty of moisture hanging around, some of it being the remains of Ophelia. While the low should stay well to our south, a trough extended from the low towards southern New England will help draw some of that moisture northward, generating plenty of clouds tonight and Friday. The question becomes, how far north does the rain get, and how heavy will it be. There is still a lot of disagreement among the models, but based on the trends in the models and their known biases, we’re thinking that most of the rain will be south of the Mass Pike, with the steadiest and likely heaviest rain mainly south of Route 44. It wouldn’t be a surprise if no rain falls at all from the Merrimack Valley into southern New Hampshire. The rain winds down Saturday morning, and we may see some clearing by late in the day. After that, high pressure builds back in for Sunday and Monday with sunshine and warmer temperatures.
The models still don’t agree on how much rain much of our area will see tomorrow and Saturday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Becoming mostly cloudy, patchy fog may develop once again. Low 46-53.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with showers developing, mainly south of the Mass Pike. High 60-67.
Friday night: Cloudy with periods of rain and showers, mainly south of the Mass Pike. Some of the rain could be heavy near the South Coast. Low 50-57.
Saturday: Showers ending around midday, some breaks of sun possible by late afternoon, especially from the Merrimack Valley northward. High 62-69.
Drier weather is on the way, but the week will start off cool and wet.
Normal high temperatures for the end of September are in the upper 60s. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
The remains of Tropical Storm Ophelia will pass south of the region today, with more clouds, some rain showers, especially south of the Mass Pike, and mainly through early afternoon, and breezy conditions, due to the gradient between what’s left of Ophelia and the large high pressure area well to the north. An upper-level low swings through on Tuesday with more clouds, and possibly a few showers,, but most of us will remain dry. High pressure then builds in for the rest of the week and the weekend with dry and seasonably cool conditions. There will be some disturbed weather hanging around to the south during the end of the week and the weekend, but for now at least, it looks like the high pressure area should keep us dry.
We need to keep an eye on some moisture associated with a disturbance that should remain south of the region at the end of the week. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Cloudy breezy, and cool with more showers, mainly south of the Mass Pike, tapering off in the afternoon. Some sunny breaks may develop by late afternoon in southern New Hampshire. High 58-65.
Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, a few lingering showers near the South Coast. Low 48-55.
Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sun, slight chance for a shower. High 58-65.
Tuesday night: Becoming clear to partly cloudy. Low 42-49, a little milder near the coast from Boston southward.
Another rainy Monday is on the way, but much of the upcoming week will feature dry weather.
A frontal system will move into the region today while an area of low pressure develops off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. The low will ride up the front, passing close to or across southeastern New England later today. The result will be periods of rain and showers through the day today, some of which could be heavy at times. Some localized flooding is possible in spots, but we should have any flooding to the magnitude we saw last Monday. Everything winds down tonight as the system pulls away, then high pressure builds in with dry and seasonably mild conditions for Tuesday through Friday and probably Saturday as well.
The models are all forecasting heavy rain across the region today. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Late Saturday and Sunday is when things get complicated again. Low pressure will begin to develop off the Southeast coast later this week. As our high pressure system moves off to the east, moisture from the low to the south will start to head northward, and may result in some wet weather around here for Saturday night and Sunday. The forecast models don’t all have the same timing and evolution of this system, so we’ll likely be refining this part of the forecast when we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.
Normal high temperatures for late-September are in the lower 70s.
Monday: Periods of rain and showers, some of the rain may be heavy at times. High 64-71.
Monday night: Showers ending, then areas of fog develop. Low 54-61.
Tuesday: Becoming mostly sunny and breezy. High 68-75.
Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 50-57.
Wednesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 69-76.
Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 68-75.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 68-75.
Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sun, rain possible at night. High 65-72.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. High 65-72.
Remember that weather pattern we had for most of the summer where it seemed to rain nearly every day? Yeah, it’s back for the first half of this week.
Some spots could pick up more heavy rain today. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
A frontal boundary remains stalled out nearby, meaning another day with warm and humid conditions along with showers and thunderstorms, some of which will produce heavy downpours. The front finally pushes offshore tonight, with some slightly drier air settling in for Tuesday. However, there will still be some moisture around, so cloudcover will be prevalent, but showers will be few and far between. A stronger cold front moves in on Wednesday, with more showers and thunderstorms likely, again some could be heavy, during the day Wednesday and into Wednesday night, ending early Thursday. High pressure builds in behind the front with drier and cooler conditions later Thursday into Friday. The weekend forecast will be dictated by the track that Hurricane Lee eventually takes.
Where will Lee be on Saturday? The answer to that question has a big impact on the forecast. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
As of 11pm, Hurricane Lee, with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph, was centered about 690 miles south-southeast of Bermuda, moving toward the northwest at 8 mph. Lee may strengthen a little more over the next day or so as it continues northwestward. By mid-week, it should be turning northward as a trough of low pressure moves off the East Coast. Lee will also begin weakening as wind shear starts to increase again and it moves over cooler water that was brought to the surface in the wake of Hurricane Franklin. The question becomes – what does Franklin do at the end of the week? Does the combination of another trough of low pressure at upper levels and the high building in at the surface help to steer Lee more toward the northeast, toward Atlantic Canada or even out to sea, or does it keep Lee on a northward track, bringing in much closer to New England? The former is still the more likely scenario, but there are enough models showing the latter, or at least something similar, that it can’t be ruled out just yet. One thing is fairly certain, once Lee gets this far north, it will be much weaker than it is now, likely only tropical storm strength, but it could also be undergoing the start of a transition into an extratropical system. If there are to be any impacts across New England this weekend, they’d be most likely near the coast, with heavy rain the main threat. High surf is likely for much of the week along our shoreline no matter the track that Lee takes.
The vast majority of the ensemble members still keep Lee well offshore of New England. Image provided by Tomer Burg.
Tropical Storm Margot continues to slowly strengthen in the eastern Atlantic. As of 11pm Sunday, Margot had top winds near 65 mph, and was centered about 1185 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving toward the north at 8 mph. Margot should continue northward while strengthening for the next few days, likely reaching hurricane strength. By later in the week, high pressure building in to the north may slow Margot down, but it should remain over open water for much of the week.
Forecast track for Tropical Storm Margot. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
We also need to keep a close eye on a tropical wave that just moved off the west coast of Africa. Conditions will be favorable for development as it makes its way across the Atlantic. If it continues to organize, it could become a tropical depression later this week. While it is still at least a week away from potentially impacting any land areas, some models show the potential for this system to continue developing into next week.
Monday: More clouds than sun with showers and thunderstorms developing, some could produce heavy rainfall. High 74-81.
Monday night: Mostly cloudy, showers ending, areas of fog likely. Low 62-69.
Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sun, just a chance for a stray shower or two. High 72-79.
Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 62-69.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, showers and thunderstorms developing, again some could be heavy. High 72-79.
Thursday: Showers ending early, becoming partly sunny. High 70-77.
Friday: Partly sunny, breezy. High 67-74.
Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for showers, especially near the coast, breezy. High 65-72.
Meteorological summer ended last Thursday. Pumpkin everything has arrived, college football has begun, the NFL starts the regular season this week, kids are back in school, Christmas stuff has even started showing up in stores. Summer is over, right? Astronomical summer doesn’t end until the autumnal equinox, which occurs at 2:49AM on September 23. Mother Nature will remind you this week that it’s still summer.
The forecast for the first half of the week is fairly simple. High pressure will remain in control with sunny days, warm to hot temperatures, coastal seabreezes, and increasing humidity. With the humidity, we’ll also have some patchy fog developing during the next few nights. Temperatures will get well into the 80s during the afternoons, with some spots topping 90, though coastal locations will likely drop into the 70s during the afternoons. The latter half of the week is where things get tricky.
Thursday looks quite toasty away from the coastline. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Thursday is likely to be another very warm to hot and humid day, but clouds will be moving in ahead of an approaching frontal system. Some showers and thunderstorms may move in late in the day, but it is just as likely that Thursday remains rain-free. Showers and thunderstorms look more likely on Friday, but temperatures will be highly dependent on the timing of the front. A frontal passage earlier in the day means cooler temperatures, but a later frontal passage could mean another day with temperatures topping 80. Some models don’t show the front moving through until Saturday, which could mean yet another warm day, but also more showers and thunderstorms. The front may stall out nearby, which means the unsettled weather could even linger into Sunday. With the Patriots set to open their season in Foxborough at 4:25pm next Sunday, fans are hoping for nice weather for the game itself and pregame tailgating.
The quest for a record 7th Lombardi trophy begins on Sunday.
Monday: Patchy morning fog, otherwise sunshine with a few afternoon clouds. High 82-89, cooler along the coast.
Monday night: Partly cloudy, areas of fog develop. Low 61-68.
Tuesday: Becoming mostly sunny. High 84-91, cooler along the coast.
Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy, patchy fog possible again. Low 65-72.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 85-92, cooler along the coast.
Thursday: Morning sun, increasing afternoon clouds, showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day. High 87-94, cooler along the coast.
Friday: More clouds than sun with some showers and thunderstorms likely. High 81-88.
Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance for more showers and thunderstorms. High 78-85.
Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for another shower or two. High 75-82.
A tropical wave way out in the Atlantic has a high likelihood of becoming a tropical depression in the next few days. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Finally, a word about the tropics. There is a tropical wave way out in the Atlantic that is slowly getting better organized. It could become a tropical depression in the next few days. It is at least 5 days away from potentially impacting the islands in the eastern Caribbean, if at all, and assuming it actually develops. There have been a few of the forecast models that have been showing that this storm could be a threat to the East Coast. At this point in time, that is pure hype and nothing else. These same models have done a horrible job forecasting actual tropical systems this season, let alone ones that haven’t even developed yet. Could this system impact the East Coast? Sure, anything is possible, but that’s a minimum of 8-10 days away from even potentially happening. This is not something you should be too concerned about at this point in time. If there is a time to be concerned, we’ll let you know well in advance. For now, ignore the hype.
The final days of meteorological summer feature more rain, which is pretty much keeping to the theme we had all summer.
Rainfall has been well above normal across New England this summer. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.
The week starts off with a rather complex forecast, but today should be mainly dry with high pressure moving offshore. With the high centered mainly north and then east of us, we’ll have onshore winds, keeping temperatures on the cooler side of normal near the coastline. Moisture will begin streaming northward in the form of high clouds today, though they will thicken up and lower later in the day. Here’s where things start to get complicated. A frontal system is currently stalled out across the Southeast, it will gradually lift northward tonight and Tuesday, allowing some tropical moisture to follow. As moisture rides northward along the front, some rain is expected to move in late tonight and Tuesday, especially across southeastern New England. Some of this rain could be quite heavy, but how far north and west the rain shield extends, and how far northward the heavy rain gets is still a question mark. Right now, it looks like it’ll be mainly across the South Coast and parts of southeastern Massachusetts, but that is obviously subject to change. At the same time, we’ll also have another cold front approaching from the northwest. We’ll also be keeping a close eye on Hurricane Franklin well offshore and Tropical Storm (possibly Hurricane) Idalia in the Gulf of Mexico (more on these two below). Franklin will be helping to push the front to our south northward, while the other front moves in from the west. In between, we’ll have another round of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday, especially during the morning hours, before the approaching front finally moves through the region. Again, some heavy rain is possible in spots, but probably not with coverage or intensity expected across the South Coast on Tuesday.
More heavy rain is possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
High pressure builds in behind the cold front for Wednesday night, and remains in place into the weekend, keeping us mostly on the dry side, with temperatures starting cool, but gradually warming up as we get to the weekend. There is a potential fly in that ointment though. Idalia is expected to make landfall near the Big Bend area of Florida Tuesday night or early Wednesday, then head into the Carolinas and offshore on Thursday. The high building in here should block its northward progress and steer it out to sea well to our south. However, if the timing is off a bit, say Idalia slows down and makes landfall later than currently expected, then perhaps some of the moisture from it or its remnants ends up being dragged farther north, and ruins our forecast of drier weather into Labor Day Weekend. While this isn’t likely right now, it’s several days away, and things can change quickly, especially when tropical systems are involved. Either way, between Franklin and Idalia, we’ll have some rough surf across the beaches and coastal waters for much of the upcoming week, so keep that in mind if that’s where your plans bring you.
The GFS model shows high pressure building in for the end of the week and the weekend, shunting Idalia out to sea well to the south. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
By the weekend and into Labor Day, another cold front will approach the region, but aside from a few showers as it moves in on Sunday, it looks to remain mostly dry and warm.
As for the tropics, here’s the latest on our two named systems:
Satellite loop showing Tropical Storm Idalia in the northwestern Caribbean and Hurricane Franklin northeast of the Bahamas. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits
Hurricane Franklin was centered about 530 miles southwest of Bermuda as of 11pm Sunday, moving toward the north-northwest at 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 105 mph. Franklin continues to get better organized and will continue to strengthen for another day or two as it heads northward and then northeastward over warm waters. While it will pass west and northwest of Bermuda late Tuesday and Wednesday, it will likely be close enough to produce tropical storm conditions on the island, with some locally heavy showers, and winds gusting upwards of 40-60 mph. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be issued for Bermuda on Monday. After that, Franklin will likely head northeastward out into the open Atlantic while gradually losing tropical characteristics.
Forecast track for Hurricane Franklin. Image provided by the Bermuda Weather Service.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Idalia formed on Sunday in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. As of 2am Monday, it was centered about 150 miles south of the western tip of Cuba and barely moving. Maximum sustained winds were up to 60 mph. The forecast for Idalia calls for it to start heading northward, passing close to or across extreme western Cuba on Monday before heading into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Steady strengthening is expected, and Idalia will likely become a hurricane on Monday. Once into the Gulf, the water is very warm, and the warm water extends rather deeply under the surface, which is one of the main ingredients that feeds tropical systems. While the upper-level environment may not be perfect, the potential is there for Idalia to rapidly strengthen on Monday and Tuesday, possibly into a major hurricane as it approaches the Gulf Coast of Florida. Eventually it will start turning more toward the northeast, but when that turn occurs will be crucial for pinpointing landfall. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Florida Gulf Coast from Englewood to Indian Pass, which includes the Tampa Bay area. Once inland, it will start to weaken, but it should start to turn more toward the east-northeast and eventually east, as the high building in up here should block its northward progress. How quick that turn occurs will determine how long it stays over land before moving into the Atlantic, which in turn will determine how strong it still is when it reaches the Atlantic, if it survives that long. We’ll have a much more detailed post about the tropics on Tuesday as Idalia nears the Gulf Coast and Franklin makes its closest pass to Bermuda.
Forecast track for Tropical Storm Idalia. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny in the morning after some patchy fog burns off, clouds increase and thicken in the afternoon. High 73-80.
Monday night: Mostly cloudy, showers developing near the South Coast, Cape, and Islands late at night. Low 58-65.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with showers likely, possibly a thunderstorm, except some locally heavy rain and thunderstorms possible across parts of Rhode Island, southeastern Massachusetts, Cape Cod, and Islands. High 71-78.
Tuesday night: Cloudy with scattered showers, possibly a rumble of thunder. Low 61-68.
Wednesday: Cloudy with more showers, possibly a thunderstorm, ending in the afternoon, followed by clearing in the evening. High 72-79.
Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy. High 69-76.
Friday: Plenty of sunshine. High 72-79.
Saturday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 74-81.
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, chance for a shower. High 75-82.
The week will start off warm and somewhat humid, but cooler air is on the way.
Normal high temperatures for late August are right around 80. Images provided by Weathermodels.com
A cold front will approach the region today, with warm and humid conditions likely ahead of it. We’ll also have plenty of clouds, though there will be some sunny breaks. The front won’t have much moisture with it, but there may be enough for a few showers along the front during the late afternoon and evening hours. Once the front moves through, high pressure builds in for Tuesday through Thursday with cooler temperatures (they’ll be below normal for late August), and lower humidity, so you can open all the windows and let some fresh air back in once again.
Dewpoints could drop into the upper 40s Tuesday night across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Things turn unsettled for the end of the week. Low pressure moves into southeastern Canada, dragging a couple of frontal systems across the region. This will result in more clouds, higher humidity, and some episodes of showers, possibly some thunderstorms, between late Thursday night into Friday. A secondary system moves in for Saturday, but whether it crosses the region or stays offshore is still up for debate among the models, which has an impact not only on the weather we’ll expect, but the temperatures as well. Temperatures will remain on the cool side for late-August, thanks to the cloudcover and rainfall. By Sunday, high pressure builds back in with dry and cool weather returning.
The models have different ideas for what to expect on Saturday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for a late-day shower. High 80-87.
Monday night: Mostly cloudy with a shower possible during the evening, skies start to clear late at night. Low 58-65.
Tuesday: Becoming mostly sunny and less humid. High 71-78.
Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 53-60.
Wednesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 71-78.
Thursday: Morning sun fades behind increasing clouds, showers possible at night. High 73-80.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. High 70-77.
Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance for showers. High 71-78.
An active weather pattern will continue across the region this week.
The first 12 days of August have been much cooler than normal, and this week won’t change that much. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.
We start the week off with high pressure providing us with a dry and warm day today. Humidity levels will begin creeping back up as well. High clouds will filter the sunshine today, and then they will thicken up late in the day as the next storm system moves toward the region. A warm front will likely stall out near or just south of the region, with showers moving in ahead of it tonight. Occasional showers are likely on Tuesday, and with the front stalled out to the south, it will likely be a rather cool day. Showers end Tuesday night, then high pressure builds back in for Wednesday and part of Thursday with dry and seasonably warm conditions. The next system moves in later Thursday into Friday with some more showers and thunderstorms. High pressure returns for the week with dry and warm to potentially hot conditions.
Tuesday afternoon could be rather cool if the warm front doesn’t make enough progress northward. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Sunshine filtered through increasing and thickening clouds. High 78-85.
Monday night: Becoming mostly cloudy with showers developing. Low 63-70.
Tuesday: Plenty of clouds with showers and some thunderstorms likely. High 72-79, though areas North of the Mass Pike could stay in the 60s all day.
Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy, showers and thunderstorms ending. Low 61-68.
Wednesday: Partly sunny. High 75-82.
Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, a few showers possible late in the day. High 76-83.
Friday: Partly sunny with some showers and thunderstorms around. High 77-84.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 76-83.
Sunday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 80-87.
“Everything in moderation, including moderation” – Oscar Wilde
Mother Nature is taking that quote to heart this week, as we’ll have moderately high temperatures at times, moderate humidity at times, and some moderate rain at times.
Dewpoints will jump into the 70s across the region on Tuesday. Images provided by WeatherBell.
A low pressure system will move across the Ohio Valley, passing north and west of the region over the next day or two. Some showers will develop ahead of the system today as it sends a warm front in, with a very noticeable spike in the humidity. The showers will be mostly on the light side, and not everyone will get them. We’ll have a bit of a lull in the activity during the afternoon, then an area of steadier rain will likely move in by evening, and continue overnight into Tuesday morning. We could be looking at a second round of showers and thunderstorms later in the day as the cold front trailing the low pressure system finally moves through and pushes offshore. Wednesday looks like the pick of the week, with high pressure building in, providing sunshine, warm temperatures and lower humidity. The latter half of the week and the weekend look unsettled at this time, with a series of disturbances moving through. These will generate showers and thunderstorms at times, but the timing of these disturbances is still in question. None of the days will be a washout, but if you’ve got outdoor plans, keep an eye on updated forecasts as the week goes on.
A few models show the potential for some heavy downpours tonight across the region, but most of the models do not. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Plenty of clouds with a few breaks of sunshine, some showers around, especially during the morning and early afternoon. High 72-79.
Monday night: Mostly cloudy and breezy with some showers and thunderstorms likely. Low 63-70.
Tuesday: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms during the morning, some clearing in the afternoon, then another round of showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day. High 76-83.
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