Weekend Outlook

Weekend/Tropical Outlook: August 22-25, 2025

wxmanscottkLeave a comment

Hurricane Erin will pass well offshore over the next 24 hours while we enjoy some rather nice weather for most of the upcoming weekend.

Average high temperatures in late August are around 80. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

High pressure will slowly build into the region this evening, allowing skies to gradually clear out tonight. With the high in control on Friday we’ll have lots of sunshine, with temperatures getting back close to where they should be in the latter half of August. It will remain breezy, especially during the morning, due to the gradient between the high building in and distant Hurricane Erin pulling away offshore (more on that in a moment). As the high moves off to the east on Saturday, southwest winds will usher warmer air in, with many areas away from the coast likely topping 80 degrees. We’ll see things start to change on Sunday as a cold front begins to slowly approach the region. Clouds will increase, and gusty southerly winds will develop, increasing humidity levels across the area. Some showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front, but they should hold off until evening, so don’t cancel any outdoor plans for Sunday. The front will take its time moving through, with showers and thunderstorms expected for Sunday night into Monday. We’ll also be watching a small area of low pressure moving up the East Coast on Monday. While most of the models keep it far enough offshore to have little to no impact here, some bring it close enough to bring in a periods of steadier rain to Cape Cod and possibly southeastern Massachusetts Monday afternoon and evening. We’re leaning towards it staying too far offshore to impact us, but we are keeping an eye on it just in case.

Low pressure should remain offshore on Monday, but that doesn’t mean we’ll stay dry. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Hurricane Erin was centered about 400 miles northwest of Bermuda as of early Thursday afternoon, moving off toward the northeast at 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 100 mph. Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for parts of the Mid-Atlantic coast as well as Bermuda. As Erin accelerates northeastward and steadily weakens conditions will improve across Bermuda and the East Coast, though rough seas and rip currents will still be a significant hazard into the weekend. With astronomically high tides, some minor coastal flooding is also still possible for the next day or two in parts of New England and Atlantic Canada.

Hurricane Erin remains a large and potent storm off the East Coast. Loop provided by NOAA.

There are two other tropical waves we’re keeping an eye on this afternoon, but neither is a significant threat to land at this time. A tropical wave is approaching the Leeward Islands this afternoon. It remains disorganized, but as it heads northwestward, conditions will become more favorable for development, and it could become a tropical depression over the weekend or early next week as it turns northward out over the open Atlantic. It will bring squally conditions to the Leeward Islands as well as the Virgin Islands and possibly Puerto Rico over the next few days, but otherwise won’t be a threat to land areas, though it could threaten Bermuda by early next week. Another wave is in the central Atlantic, and shows some signs of organization. While conditions are favorable for some development right now, they will become more hostile by this weekend, which would effectively end any further chances for development.

Hurricane Erin is pulling away from the East Coast but there are other areas we’re watching in the Atlantic. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Thursday night: Skies clear out from northwest to southeast, still breezy across Rhode Island, southeastern Massachusetts, and Cape Cod. Low 51-58, a little milder on Cape Cod.

Friday: Plenty of sunshine, winds diminish by early afternoon. High 77-84, a little cooler across Cape Cod.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 54-61.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 80-87, a little cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Saturday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 60-67.

Sunday: Morning sunshine fades behind increasing clouds, becoming breezy and more humid. High 76-83.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy with showers and a few thunderstorms developing. Low 61-68.

Monday: More clouds than sun with some additional showers and thunderstorms. High 75-82.

Weekend/Tropical Outlook: August 15-18, 2025

wxmanscottkLeave a comment

A good portion of the upcoming weekend should feature some very nice mid-summer weather. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Erin continues to gather strength in the central Atlantic.

Temperatures will average close to normal through the weekend despite some ups and downs. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

A cold front will slide offshore this evening, taking any remaining shower and thunderstorm activity with it. Behind it, high pressure builds in with sunshine, cooler temperatures and lower humidity for Friday. As the high moves off to the east, temperatures will start to creep back up on Saturday, but will be pretty close to where they should be in mid-August. Sunday looks to be another hot and humid day, though it won’t be anywhere near as oppressive as some days we had earlier in the summer. A cold front will be approaching the region though, and it may produce some showers and thunderstorms late in the day and into the evening. High pressure then builds back in with much cooler and drier air for Monday.

Tropical Storm Erin continues to slowly intensify in the central Atlantic. Loop provided by NOAA.

Out in the central Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Erin continues to slowly get its act together. As of 11am Thursday, Erin was centered about 890 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving toward the west at 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 60 mph. Conditions are becoming more favorable for Erin to intensify, as wind shear is limited at this time, the atmosphere ahead of Erin is more moist, and sea surface temperatures gradually increase as you head westward. Erin is expected to become a hurricane on Friday. As for the track, that’s fairly simple for now. A large ridge of high pressure remains in place to the north, so Erin should continue in a general west to west-northwest direction for the next few days, likely passing north of the Caribbean this weekend. It may be close enough that some of the outer bands from the storm will bring squally conditions to parts of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, but a direct hit is unlikely at this time. Erin should continue to intensify this weekend, likely become a major hurricane.

Beyond this weekend, things become a little less clear. Erin will encounter a weakness in the ridge to the north, which should allow the storm to turn more toward the northwest and then north. However, when that turn occurs and how quickly it will make the turn are still very uncertain. Most of the models show the storm passing in between Bermuda and the East Coast, eventually turning northeastern and heading out into the Atlantic, but that is far from a lock at this point. The earlier the turn happens, the bigger the threat to Bermuda. The later the turn happens, the more likely that the storm could impact parts of the Bahamas. The storm will produce rough surf and increase the chances for riptides along the East Coast next week, but for now at least, that looks to be the only impact from the storm. That could change if the turn happens later, but we’ll worry about that if it happens.

Ensemble forecasts for the track of Erin. Loop provided by Tomer Burg.

There’s also a system we’re keeping an eye on in the Bay of Campeche. A cluster of thunderstorms has been slowing organizing over the past day or so, and as it heads northwestward, conditions are favorable for some development over the next day or so. The system doesn’t have a lot of time, as it will likely move inland somewhere close to the Texas/Mexico border late Friday or Friday night, but it could become a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm before moving inland. Whether it develops of not, heavy rain, gusty winds, and coastal flooding are possible in this region for the next few days.

We’re also keeping an eye on a developing system in the western Gulf of Mexico. Loop provided by NOAA.

Thursday night: Any lingering showers or thunderstorms end in the evening, becoming clear to partly cloudy overnight. Low 62-69.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny, not as humid. High 76-83, coolest along the coast.

Friday night: Partly cloudy, some patchy fog may develop. Low 57-64.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 81-88, cooler near the coast.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 62-69.

Sunday: Morning sun, then increasing clouds, chance for a late-day shower or thunderstorm, humid. High 85-92, a little cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Sunday night: Any showers or thunderstorms end in the evening, becoming partly cloudy overnight. Low 59-66.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, cooler and less humid. High 72-79.

Weekend Outlook: August 7-12, 2025

wxmanscottkLeave a comment

Remember how it rained nearly every weekend through the Spring? That won’t be the case this weekend.

It’s been quite dry across much of the area since June 1. Image provided by WeatherBell.

High pressure will dominate our weather right through the weekend. The high, currently centered over southeastern Canada will slowly drop southward, settling off the East Coast this weekend. Not only will we stay dry through this time, but temperatures will trend upward, and by the end of the weekend, so will humidity levels. The smoke and haze that has plagued us for the past few days from Canadian wildfires will thin out and drift away, so we’ll have sunshine for most of the time as well (during the daylight hours).

Monday is looking like a hot and humid day across the region. Image provided by weathermodels.com

Wednesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with some patchy fog in spots. Low 57-64.

Thursday: A cloudy start, gradually becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 75-82.

Thursday night: Clear skies. Low 54-61.

Friday: Mostly sunny. High 78-85, a little cooler along the coast.

Friday night: Clear skies. Low 55-62.

Saturday: Plenty of sunshine. High 79-86, a little cooler along the coast.

Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 58-65.

Sunday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds, a little more humid. High 85-92, a little cooler along the coast.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 62-69.

Monday: Mostly sunny, humid. High 88-95, a little cooler along the coast.

Weekend Outlook: August 1-4, 2025

wxmanscottkLeave a comment

As we flip the calendar we’ve some absolutely fantastic weather on tap for much of the upcoming weekend.

It’s going to be a rather wet night across the region. Loop provided by WeatherBell.

We’re starting off with some rain as a wave of low pressure rides along a stalled out frontal system just south of New England. Some of the rain could be heavy this evening and tonight, but the bulk of the heavy rain will stay southwest of our area, mainly across the Mid-Atlantic states. We do need the rain that we are getting though, as it has been on the dry side for the past couple of months, with drought conditions starting to re-emerge in spots. Once the rain ends Friday morning we’ll see skies start to clear out by late in the day, then high pressure builds in for the weekend with lots of sunshine. Temperatures will be a little below normal for Saturday but still rather mild, with a warming trend back to near normal on Sunday and a little above normal on Monday, but humidity levels will remain comfortable the entire time.

High temperatures should be in the lower to middle 80s in early August. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.

Thursday night: Periods of rain and showers, possibly heavy at times, tapering off late at night, breezy. Low 56-63.

Friday: Any lingering showers end in the morning, skies start to clear out in the afternoon, breezy. High 68-75.

Friday night: Becoming clear. Low 53-60.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 73-80.

Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 54-61.

Sunday: Plenty of sunshine. High 79-86, a little cooler across Cape Cod.

Sunday night: Clear skies. Low 58-65.

Monday: Mostly sunny. High 82-89, a little cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Weekend Outlook: July 25-28, 2025

wxmanscottk1 Comment

Lots of changes coming up this weekend, but the humidity will probably hang around.

It will feel like it is near or over 100 degrees Friday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

High pressure settles offshore, keeping us on the warm and humid side. In fact, Friday will be downright hot with many places away from the South Coast getting into the 90s. When you factor the humidity it, it may feel like it is close to or a little over 100 in the afternoon. However, we’ll also see clouds moving in ahead of a cold front. That front will trigger some showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. We’re not expecting widespread severe weather, but some of the storms could produce gusty winds and heavy downpours. The front settles offshore before stalling out, with somewhat cooler and drier air moving in for Saturday. By somewhat, we mean temperatures in the 80s instead of 90s, and dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s instead of upper 60s and lower 70s. So, it’ll be a typical summer day across the region. Sunday may not be as nice. A wave of low pressure will ride along the front and bring the humidity back in, along with the possibility some showers and thunderstorms, mostly during the afternoon and evening. However, some models keep the showers offshore, so we may end up with a decent day. High pressure returns for Monday with sunshine, warmer temperatures, and moderate humidity levels.

Will Sunday be wet or dry? It depends on which model you trust. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Clear skies. Low 66-73.

Friday: Some morning sun, then clouds move in with some showers and thunderstorms likely during the afternoon. High 88-95, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Friday night: Showers and thunderstorms ending in the evening, becoming clear to partly cloudy after midnight. Low 63-70.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 80-87, a little cooler near the coast.

Saturday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 60-67.

Sunday: More clouds than sunshine, showers and thunderstorms may develop in the afternoon. High 75-82.

Sunday night: Cloudy with any showers and thunderstorms ending during the evening, becoming partly cloudy late at night. Low 62-69.

Monday: Becoming mostly sunny. High 84-91, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Weekend Outlook: July 18-21, 2025

wxmanscottkLeave a comment

Cooler and drier weather is on the way, but there’s also more rain coming.

A cold front will bring in some showers and thunderstorms later today. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com

High pressure remains in control with hot and humid conditions lingering again today, but changes are on the way. A cold front will move in this evening, with some showers and thunderstorms likely ahead of it. While widespread severe weather is not expected, a few storms could produce strong winds, hail, and heavy downpours that could lead to flash flooding, especially across the interior. The front moves through at night, then drier air moves in for both Friday and Saturday as high pressure builds back in. Temperatures will be in the 70s and lower 80s, with dewpoints dropping into the 50s and lower 60s, making for a much more comfortable airmass. Unfortunately, it won’t last too long. By Saturday night, we’ll see clouds moving back in ahead of the next system, with humidity levels creeping back up. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will accompany this system, but for now, the day doesn’t look like a complete washout, with most of the activity likely coming during the morning. High pressure returns for later Sunday and Monday with cooler and drier air once again.

Dewpoints will drop into the 50s on Monday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday: Partly sunny, breezy, a few showers and thunderstorms likely late in the day. High 85-92.

Thursday night: Any showers or thunderstorms end in the evening, becoming clear to partly cloudy. Low 65-72.

Friday: Mostly sunny, less humid. High 77-84.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 55-62.

Saturday: Sunshine gives way to increasing high clouds. High 79-86.

Saturday night: Becoming mostly cloudy, showers and thunderstorms develop after midnight. Low 64-71.

Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms likely in the morning, becoming partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 77-84.

Sunday night: Clear skies. Low 59-66.

Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 73-80.

Weekend Outlook: July 11-14, 2025

wxmanscottkLeave a comment

Drier and warmer weather is expected as we head through much of the upcoming weekend.

High temperatures are generally in the lower to middle 80s around here in mid-July. Image provided by weathermodels.com

The last of the rain that brought flooding to the southern suburbs of Boston this morning will move offshore this evening, then high pressure builds in north of the area. This will result in drier weather for the next few days, with temperatures near or a little below normal, especially at the coast, thanks to onshore winds. There is still a chance for a few widely scattered pop-up showers and thunderstorms each afternoon, especially on Friday, but these will be confined to the interior, and the vast majority of the region won’t see any at all. Temperatures will rise a little on Monday as will humidity levels, making it a bit more uncomfortable than the previous few days. We’ll also see a cold front starting to approach on Monday, and this will give us a better chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.

Showers and thunderstorms could be moving into the region later on Monday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Any lingering showers end in the evening, mostly cloudy with areas of fog overnight. Low 59-66.

Friday: Morning clouds, then becoming partly sunny, slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, mainly across the interior. High 78-85, a little cooler at the coast.

Friday night: Partly cloudy, patchy fog redevelops. Low 61-68.

Saturday: Partly sunny, a stray shower or thunderstorm possible across the interior during the afternoon. High 79-86, a little cooler at the coast.

Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, more fog possible. Low 61-68.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, just a very slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 78-85, a little cooler across Cape Cod.

Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 61-68.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sun, showers and thunderstorms may develop in the afternoon. High 79-86, a little cooler across Cape Cod.

Weekend Outlook: July 4-7, 2025

wxmanscottkLeave a comment

Some fantastic weather is on the way for the holiday weekend.

Dewpoints will drop into the 50s for the Fourth of July. Image provided by WeatherBell.

A cold front will cross the region this evening, bringing an end to the heat and humidity, and taking any lingering showers and thunderstorms offshore. High pressure then builds in for the Fourth of July with sunshine and a few clouds, much lower humidity, and seasonably warm temperatures. You won’t have any weather-related issues for outdoor activities during the day or at night. Saturday will be similar, perhaps a few degrees warmer, and maybe a touch more humid, but still very comfortable. For Sunday and Monday, the high will start to move offshore, so both temperatures and humidity will start to creep up, with temperatures above 90 in many areas.

Heat and humidity return on Sunday. Image provided by weathermodels.com

A cold front will also be starting to approach on Monday, so we’ll see clouds starting to move in, but it looks like any shower or thunderstorm activity associated with the front should hold off during the daylight hours. However, that’s not the only thing we’re keeping an eye on for Monday. There’s a cluster of showers and thunderstorms currently sitting off the Southeast coast along a decaying front. Forecast models show the potential for a little development this weekend and given NHC’s track record so far this year, it wouldn’t be a surprise it they decided to call it a Tropical Depression or even a Tropical Storm. It will bring some heavy rain and gusty winds to parts of the Carolinas this weekend before either dissipating or heading out to sea well south of New England. However, some of the moisture from that storm will move up the East Coast. If it does, it will interact with the aforementioned cold front coming through here on Tuesday, but some models show the potential for it to get up here as soon as Monday afternoon or evening. We’re not convinced that will be the case just yet, but we’re not ruling it out either. We’ll have more on that in our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning, and potentially in a special blog post this weekend if the system does develop.

Will a system to the south send in some rain late Monday? It’s a possibility. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Any lingering showers or thunderstorms end in the evening, clearing overnight. Low 58-65.

Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds, much less humid. High 76-83.

Friday night: Clear during the evening, becoming partly cloudy late at night. Low 54-61.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 79-86.

Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Low 62-69.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy in the afternoon, becoming humid. High 87-94, cooler along the South Coast and across Cape Cod.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 66-73.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, chance for a late-day shower or thunderstorm, humid. High 88-95, cooler along the South Coast and across Cape Cod.

Weekend Outlook: June 27-30, 2025

wxmanscottkLeave a comment

The heat and humidity are gone, with cool and damp weather return, the hot and humid weather could make a return by the end of the weekend.

Temperatures are 20-30 degrees colder this afternoon than they were at this time yesterday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

The front that ended the heat wave moved through yesterday and has settled offshore, with high pressure building in to the north. This has shifted winds into the east and northeast, bringing much cooler air in, and it will hang around into Friday. As disturbances ride along the front, we’ll have episodes of showers into Saturday, though the vast majority of the time will remain dry. As the high slides offshore, winds will start to shift into south and southwest on Saturday, allowing temperatures to warm into the 70s in many areas, especially south of the Mass Pike, though we’ll still have plenty of clouds and a few showers, especially north of the Mass Pike, but dewpoints will climb back into the 60s, perhaps even lower 70s across the region. We should see a little more in the way of sunshine on Sunday, allowing temperatures to get back into the 80s in many areas. By Monday, the very warm and humid weather will return, with highs well into the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s and lower 70s across much of the region resulting in another moderately uncomfortable day.

Most (but not all) of the models show drier weather moving in Saturday afternoon. Images provided by Pivotal Weather,

Thursday night: Plenty of clouds with a few showers possible. Low 56-63.

Friday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, slight chance for a shower. High 66-73.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy with some showers likely. Low 55-62.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for more showers, mainly in the morning. High 73-80 south of the Mass Pike, 65-72 north of the Pike.

Saturday night: More clouds with a few more showers possible. Low 60-67.

Sunday: Becoming partly sunny. High 75-82.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 58-66.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 81-88, cooler across Cape Cod.

Weekend Outlook: June 19-23, 2025

wxmanscottkLeave a comment

We’ve got a fairly complicated forecast for the final days of Spring and initial days of Summer.

The heat index will reach the middle to upper 90s across much of the region on Thursday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

A warm and humid airmass has settled into the region, and it will be here into Thursday. We’ll have plenty of clouds through the evening with a few showers and possibly a rumble of thunder as a weak disturbance moves across the region. These showers should end before midnight, then we’ll see some fog developing. Once the fog burns off Thursday morning a hot and humid day is expected under partly to mostly sunny skies. Gusty southwest winds will help send temperatures into the upper 80s and lower 90s in much of the region, except along the South Coast and Cape Cod, where winds off the water will keep temperatures a little cooler. Dewpoints well get into the 60s and lower 70s, resulting in the heat index reaching the middle to upper 90s in many areas. A Heat Advisory has been issued for parts of the region as a result.

Severe weather is possible in the Northeast Thursday with damaging winds the greatest threat. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

A cold front will move across the region late in the day, triggering some showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening. A few of these storms may produce strong winds, heavy downpours and some hail, but it looks like the best chance for severe storms will be off to our west. If the front were to move in a little faster than we currently expect, the odds for severe weather would rise, since it would be arriving around the time of maximum heating. Behind the front, drier air settles in for Friday, and while it won’t be as hot, it will still be quite warm. As we get to Saturday, it looks like we will finally break our streak of wet Saturdays with sunshine, mild temperatures, and lower humidity, but that doesn’t mean the entire weekend will be dry.

A cluster of thunderstorms could rumble across the region before daybreak Sunday, Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Forecast models have been showing the potential for a cluster of potent thunderstorms to develop across the Northern Plains Friday evening which would then race across the Northern Great Lakes on Saturday before diving into New England after midnight Saturday night. While they should be weakening by the time they get here, don’t be surprised if you’re awakened early Sunday morning by frequent lightning and some heavy downpours. Once those storms move offshore, skies will become partly to mostly sunny again with another dry and warm day expected. Things change again by Monday. A ridge of high pressure will start to build in, resulting in heat and humidity returning on Monday, and possibly for at least a few more days beyond that heading into next week. We’ll have more on that in our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning.

The first half of next week could be quite toasty around here. Image provided by weathermodels.com

Wednesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers during the evening, areas of fog develop overnight, muggy. Low 61-68.

Thursday: Becoming mostly sunny, hot, and humid, showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day, breezy. High 87-94, cooler along the South Coast and across Cape Cod.

Thursday night: Showers and thunderstorms expected during the evening, clearing overnight, breezy. Low 61-68.

Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds, not as humid, still breezy. High 76-83.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 58-65.

Saturday: Sunshine with some afternoon clouds. High 80-87, cooler across Cape Cod.

Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers and thunderstorms possible after midnight. Low 61-68.

Sunday: Showers and storms end early, then a mix of sun and clouds. High 81-88, cooler across Cape Cod.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 63-70.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny, hot, and humid. High 87-94, cooler along the South Coast and across Cape Cod.