The first half of the week is looking quite toasty, but the second half looks quite unsettled. There’s also the chance the first tropical depression of the season in the Atlantic could develop.
A large ridge of high pressure will bring heat and humidity to much of the East to start the week. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
A ridge of high pressure will remain in place across the Eastern US to start the week, resulting in some very warm to hot and humid conditions. Temperatures will soar well into the 90s in many areas today with sunny skies, but a seabreeze will keep coastal areas a little cooler, mainly in the 80s. When you factor in dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s, it’s going to feel like it is over 100 degrees outside, away from the coastline. Temperatures only drop into the 70s at night, setting us a brutally hot and humid day on Tuesday. Temperatures should be well into the 90s across much of the region, and it isn’t out of the question that a few places get close to 100 degrees. Again, with the humidity factored in, it will feel likely 100 to 110 once again. Wednesday is the transition day, as a weak backdoor cold front begins to drop down from the north. Inland areas will still be hot, likely topping 90 once again, but coastal areas may stay in the 80s as winds become onshore. A few showers or thunderstorms may accompany the front, bringing some relief from the heat.
The heat index will be over 100 across much of the region Tuesday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.
That front should settle off to the south later Wednesday before stalling out, bringing an end to the heat and allowing much cooler air to settle into the region. As weak disturbances ride along the front, we’ll have episodes of showers and times between Thursday and Sunday. None of the days should be a washout, but it will definitely be cooler and wetter than the first half of the week, with temperatures likely below normal for the end of June. Sunday may actually turn out to be a decent day, with a lesser chance for showers and the potential for some milder temperatures.
The latter half of the week and the weekend will feature below normal temperatures. Image provided by weathermodels.com
Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 90-97 inland, 82-89 along the coast, a little cooler across the Outer Cape.
Monday night: Mostly clear, a little patchy fog possible near the South Coast and Cape Cod. Low 69-76, a little cooler across Cape Cod.
Tuesday: Sunny, hot, and humid, just a slight chance for a late-day shower or thunderstorm. High 93-100, cooler across Cape Cod and the immediate South Coast.
Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 71-78, cooler across Cape Cod.
Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a shower. High 87-94, cooler along the immediate coast and across Cape Cod.
Wednesday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers. Low 62-69.
Thursday: More clouds than sunshine with some showers possible. High 71-78.
Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a shower. Low 57-64.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with some showers likely. High 68-75.
Saturday: Plenty of clouds, chance for more showers. High 71-78.
Sunday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a shower. High 75-82.
Meanwhile, in the tropics, there is the chance that our first tropical depression of the season could be forming. A weak area of low pressure has developed a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. It is generating some thunderstorms, and conditions are marginally favorable for a little development today, then conditions become a little more hostile after that. Given that we are past the average date of the first tropical storm in the Atlantic (June 20), and there hasn’t been anything even resembling an organized system yet, the folks at the National Hurricane Center are probably bouncing off the walls with nothing to do, so they’ll probably end up naming this, even though it’s not purely tropical and won’t be around for more than 12-24 hours.
Low pressure east of Bermuda is being monitored for development. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on Sunday June 1 and runs through November 30, and indications are that it shouldn’t be as active as last year.
List of names for storms that form during the 2025 Hurricane Season. Image provided by NOAA.
The 2024 season was an above normal season by the numbers, with 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. The season got off to a slower start than recent years, with only 3 storms through the beginning of August, and 5 through Labor Day, but 8 named storms formed in a 4 week span between September 9 and October 5. Hurricane Helene made the most headlines, hitting the Big Bend region of Florida area as a Category 4 hurricane on September 27, producing catastrophic wind damage and flooding in parts of the Carolinas. Hurricane Milton was the strongest storm of the season, reaching Category 5 intensity. The estimated minimum pressure in the storm of 895mb tied it with 2005’s Hurricane Rita for the 4th lowest pressure in the Atlantic Basin. Milton made landfall near Siesta Key, Florida on October 9 as a Category 3 hurricane. The other storms to make landfall in the US were Hurricane Beryl in central Texas on July 8, Hurricane Debby which hit the Florida Big Bend on August 5, and Hurricane Francine, which hit Louisiana on September 11. The 5 US hurricane landfalls is the most since 2020, when 6 hurricanes struck the United States. That year also featured 2 major hurricane landfalls, just like 2024. In 2021, a total of 8 tropical systems made landfall in the United States, but only 2 at hurricane strength. That includes 2 tropical storms that made landfall in New England that summer – Elsa and Henri. Both Elsa and Henri each made landfall near Westerly, Rhode Island about 6 weeks apart. This was just the 5th time since 1851 that two tropical systems made landfall in Southern New England or Long Island in the same year, and only the 2nd time (1961 being the other), that both storms were only tropical storm strength. (We’ll have more info on New England tropical systems a little later in this post).
2024 was another active hurricane season. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Forecasts for the upcoming season are calling for a season that features near to above normal activity, though conditions are not nearly as favorable as they were at this time last year. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are considerably cooler, especially in the Main Development Region. In terms of ENSO, last year’s La Nina has faded and we are now in a neutral phase, which is not as favorable for storm development. NOAA issued their seasonal hurricane outlook on May 22, and it calls for a 60 percent chance for an above normal season, a 30 percent chance for a near normal season, and a 10 percent chance for a below normal season. Most of the other hurricane outlooks issued by various outlets are also expecting an above normal season, due to the signals mentioned above. An average season consists of 14.4 named storms, of which 7.2 become hurricanes and 3.2 become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale). NOAA’s forecast for this season calls for 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State, the first group to forecast how active a hurricane season would be, originally led by the late Dr. Bill Gray, will issue their updated forecast on June 11. Their initial forecast from April called for an above average season, with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. They also pegged the chance at a storm making landfall in the Massachusetts at 40% (33% is the average in any given year), and the odds of a hurricane making landfall in Massachusetts at 18% (14% is the average). Overall, 8 of the past 9 hurricane seasons have featured above normal activity across the Atlantic.
Forecasters are expecting another active hurricane season. Image provided by NOAA.
Despite the early start for the many of the past several years, the average date for the first named storm in the Atlantic is still June 20, and the average date for the first hurricane is August 11. Over 97% of all named storms in the Atlantic form between June 1 and November 30. Most early season storms tend to be on the weaker side. A hurricane hasn’t made landfall in the United States before July 1 since Hurricane Bonnie came ashore as a minimal hurricane near the Texas/Louisiana border on June 26, 1986.
Based on climatology, the most likely spots for an early season storm are off the Southeast coast, in the Gulf of Mexico, or the northwestern Caribbean. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
The number of storms that form in any given season has no correlation on how many storms (if any) will impact the United States. In 2010, 19 named storms were observed in the Atlantic, 12 of them became hurricanes, and 5 were major hurricanes. Only one storm made landfall in the United States, and that was Bonnie, which was a minimal tropical storm at landfall. In 1990, there were a total 14 named storms, 8 of them hurricanes and 1 major hurricane. Not a single one of them made landfall in the United States. On the flip side, only 7 named storms formed in 1992, and the first one didn’t develop until August 16. That storm, however, was named Andrew, and it made landfall just south of Miami as a category 5 storm. It only takes one storm to ruin your entire year.
Map showing the track of all of the hurricanes that crossed New England since 1851. Image provided by NOAA.
Here in New England, we should always pay attention when a storm is nearing the Bahamas, as those are the ones that have the potential to impact us, and we are extremely overdue for a hurricane to make landfall. Using the HURDAT database which has data back to 1851, here are some stats that show exactly how overdue we are:
Since 1851, 39 storms of tropical storm strength of greater have made landfall in New England or Long Island, an average of one every 4.5 years. The longest we’ve ever gone without one is 11 years, between 1897 and 1908 and also between 1923 and 1934. In 2021, we had two tropical storms (Elsa and Henri) make landfall in the region, so it’s been 4 years, which means we are due for another.
Since 1851, 32 strong tropical storms (maximum sustained winds of 60 mph or more) have made landfall in New England or Long Island, an average of one every 5.4 years. The longest we’ve ever gone without one is 19 years, between 1897 and 1916. In 2021, we had two strong tropical storms (Elsa and Henri) make landfall in the region.
Since 1851, a hurricane has made landfall in New England or Long Island 18 times, an average of one every 9.7 years. The longest we’ve ever gone between hurricane landfalls is 38 years, between 1896 and 1934. It’s now been 34 years since Hurricane Bob, our 2nd longest drought on record.
Since 1851, 8 hurricanes of Category 2 intensity or stronger have made landfall in New England or Long Island, an average of one every 21.8 years. The longest we’ve gone between hits by storms of that intensity is 69 years, between 1869 and 1938. We’re at 34 years since Bob, the last one to do so.
Since 1851, New England/Long Island has had 3 Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) make landfall – an unnamed storm in October of 1869 that grazed the eastern tip of Long Island before making landfall just west of Charlestown, RI; the infamous 1938 Long Island Express that made landfall near Brookhaven, NY and then again near New Haven, CT; and Hurricane Carol in 1954 which crossed East Hampton, NY and then made a 2nd landfall near Groton, CT. That’s an average of 1 every 58 years, and we’re now at 71 years since Carol, making this the longest stretch on record. There are also 3 documented storms from before 1851 – The Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635, the 1815 New England Hurricane, and the Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane of 1821. That’s it. That changes the numbers to 6 in 390 years, or one every 65 years, with a longest drought of 180 years.
Satellite photo of Hurricane Bob approaching New England. Bob was the last hurricane to make landfall in New England – 34 years ago. Image provided by NOAA.
We all saw what Sandy did back in 2012, and that was a minimal hurricane that eventually made landfall in southern New Jersey (technically as an extratropical storm), though there were other factors that led to the amount of damage it caused. When (not if) the next big storm comes up the coast, much of this region will not be prepared for the storm or its aftermath. A storm doesn’t need to make a direct hit on New England to have significant impacts. In addition to Sandy, the so-called “Perfect Storm” in 1991 was an offshore system that became a hurricane and battered the coastline with strong winds and significant coastal impacts for a few days around Halloween. In 1955, Hurricane Connie and Tropical Storm Diane both made landfall in North Carolina 5 days apart. Connie tracked into the eastern Great Lakes, but still produced some heavy rain in New England, especially western New England. A few days later, Diane passed just south of New England on its way out to sea, but produced widespread rainfall totals of 5-15 inches across most of southern New England, with 19.75″ in Westfield, Massachusetts. The combination of these back-to-back storms resulted in some of the worst flooding this region has ever seen.
Rainfall totals from Tropical Storm Diane in August, 1995. Image provided by NOAA.
The Atlantic is quiet right now, but even if something were to form off the East Coast in the next few weeks and head this way, the waters off of New England are still much too cold to sustain a tropical system, so we’d see something more like a typical nor’easter. Only two tropical storms have ever made landfall in the Northeast before the end of June. The first was an unnamed minimal tropical storm that crossed extreme eastern Long Island and went into southeastern Connecticut on May 30, 1908. The other was Tropical Storm Agnes, which made landfall near New York City on June 22, 1972, then caused devastating flooding across parts of the Mid-Atlantic states. In terms of hurricanes, the earliest one to ever make landfall up this way was Hurricane Belle, which slammed into Long Island as a minimal hurricane with 75 mph winds on August 9, 1976. We did have Hurricane Arthur pass just offshore of Nantucket on July 4, 2014. While it did not make landfall, it made for a rather wet and cool holiday, especially across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts. Statistically, the most likely time for a hurricane to hit New England is between the middle of August and late September. Of the 18 hurricanes that made landfall in New England or Long Island since 1851, 15 of them have done so between August 19 and September 27.
The most likely time for a tropical system to impact our area is August of September. Image provided by the National Weather Service office in Norton, MA.
As always, you should get your weather information from a trusted source (hopefully you trust us), especially when dealing with tropical systems. Much like with snowstorms in the winter, there will be plenty of hype and exaggeration on Twitter and Facebook, as well as people posting doom and gloom maps showing how a thunderstorm near the coast of Africa will develop into a Category 5 storm and head right for the East Coast in the next 2 weeks. We’re not among that group, we give you facts and our best forecasts, without any hype. If there’s reason to worry, we’ll let you know with plenty of advance warning. It’s always best to prepare ahead of the season. Chances are, you won’t have anything to worry about, but in case you do, it’s always good to be prepared.
Hurricane Milton remains a Category 4 storm as it begins to close in on the Florida Gulf Coast.
Hurricane Milton is heading toward western Florida. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
After peaking as a Category 5 hurricane twice over the past few days, Hurricane Milton is starting to weaken, and will continue to do so right up until landfall along the Florida Gulf Coast tonight. As of 3pm EDT Milton still had maximum sustained winds near 130 mph, and was centered about 110 miles west of Ft. Myers, Florida, moving toward the northeast at 16 mph. A variety of watches and warnings are in effect for most of Florida as well as parts of the Bahamas and Southeast coastline.
Milton’s eye shows up on the radar from Tampa. Loop provided by the College of DuPage.
At this point, the forecast for Milton is fairly straightforward. Upper-level conditions are becoming increasingly hostile, so Milton should continue to weaken, but will likely still be a Category 3 or Category 2 hurricane at landfall around or just after midnight tonight. It should turn a bit more toward the east-northeast this evening, with landfall likely south of Tampa Bay, probably somewhere in the vicinity of Sarasota. Once inland, it will move east-northeastward across Florida while continuing to weaken, likely emerging in the Atlantic Thursday morning as a Category 1 hurricane. It should then continue out into the open Atlantic. This track should keep the strongest winds south of Interstate 4, sparing the Tampa/Orlando/Daytona Beach areas from the worst of the conditions.
Milton should cross central Florida tonight then move into the Atlantic. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Milton has already begun to transition into an extratropical system, and by the time it moves into the Atlantic Thursday morning, that transition should be nearly complete. Unfortunately, this will result in Milton becoming and even larger storm, and the strong winds, albeit weaker than they are now, spread out over a much larger area. While the winds will result in widespread damage, especially near landfall, the strongest winds should stay south of Tampa, Orlando, and Daytona Beach. These areas may see gusts to hurricane strength, especially in Tampa, but wind will not be the biggest concern here.
The strongest winds are expected to stay just south of the Interstate-4 corridor. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Heavy rain has been falling across parts of Florida, especially central Florida for a few days now, and Milton will only worsen that. Much of the region has received 1-4 inches of rain already this week, and along and north of the track, additional rainfall totals of 10-15 inches or more are likely by Thursday morning, resulting in widespread significant flooding. This does include the metro areas of Tampa, Orlando, and Daytona.
Torrential rainfall is expected along and north of Milton’s track. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
The biggest concern is along the Florida Gulf Coast, where a large storm surge is expected near and south of where the center makes landfall. Milton has been piling up the water in the Gulf for a couple of days now, and even though it has begun weakening, the seas will not subside much, if at all, before landfall. A storm surge if 10-14 feet is expected from the mouth of Tampa Bay southward to the Charlotte Harbor area. With landfall expected near or just before high tide, it will exacerbate the storm surge a bit more. Much of the remainder of the Florida Gulf Coast can still expect a significant storm surge, especially southward, including the Naples and Fort Myers areas, but with the storm passing south of Tampa Bay, we were spared the worst-case scenario of a storm passing just to the north, sending a 15-foot storm surge right up the Bay and into downtown Tampa. Storm surge will also be a concern, but to a lesser degree along the Atlantic coast, mainly across central and northeastern Florida from Melbourne to Jacksonville, where a 3-5 foot storm surge is still expected.
Storm Surge is the biggest concern along the Florida Gulf Coast. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
If that wasn’t enough, Milton will also produce numerous tornadoes across parts of central and southern Florida today and tonight. There have already been more than half a dozen reports of tornadoes across parts of the area, and a Tornado Watch remains in effect through this evening for much of central and southern Florida. It will almost certainly be extended through the night.
Tornadoes are likely across central and southern Florida ahead of Milton. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.
Hurricane Milton peaked as a Category 5 storm on Monday with a central pressure of 897mb. The lower the pressure the stronger the storm. This made it the 5th strongest storm on record in the Atlantic Basin, and one of just 7 storms to have a central pressure of 900mb or lower. The last storm to do so was Hurricane Wilma in October of 2005. Wilma’s pressure bottomed out at 882mb, which is the lowest sea-level pressure recorded in the Atlantic, and second lowest in the western hemisphere (Hurricane Patricia in the Eastern Pacific had a pressure of 872mb in 2015).
Storm
Pressure
Year
Wilma
882mb
2005
Gilbert
888mb
1988
Labor Day
892mb
1935
Rita
895mb
2005
Milton
897mb
2024
Strongest hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin by pressure.
Milton isn’t the only active storm right now. We also have Hurricane Leslie, centered about 985 miles east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving toward the northwest at 10 mph. Leslie weakened to a tropical storm on Tuesday, but has regained hurricane strength, with maximum sustained winds near 85 mph. Leslie may strengthen a little more tonight and Wednesday before a weakening trend commences. Leslie should turn more toward the north and northeast, remaining over open water while steadily weakening over the next few days, before becoming extratropical this weekend.
Forecast track for Hurricane Leslie. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
We’re also keeping an eye on an area of low pressure a few hundred miles west-southwest of Bermuda. It’s not tropical in origin, but it does have a small window over the next day or so where it could acquire some tropical characteristics, before upper-level conditions become unfavorable once again. Hurricane Season doesn’t officially end until November 30, so chances are, there will be more storms forming over the coming weeks.
A good portion of the upcoming week will feature cool and dry weather. Meanwhile, all eyes are turning to Hurricane Milton in the Gulf of Mexico.
Temperatures will be below normal for the next several days across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.
A cold front will cross the region today with some showers likely. While we need the rain, as we’re starting to slip into a drought, this will not be nearly enough rain to alleviate it. The front moves offshore late today, then we’ll clear out and turn cooler for Tuesday. With clear skies and light winds Tuesday night, some patchy frost is possible in the normally colder locations, especially well north and west of Boston. Another front moves through on Wednesday with little fanfare, but it will bring even cooler weather in for Thursday, when many locations likely won’t reach 60 for a high temperature. High pressure then slides offshore, allowing temperatures to moderate a little on Friday, and even more on Saturday, when many places may top 70 again. Another system may bring in some cooler and unsettled conditions for late Sunday and Columbus Day.
Rainfall has been well below normal for a few months now, and we’re not going to get much help this week. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Meanwhile, the tropics remain active with three hurricanes, but one of them is a significant threat to land. As of 5am, Hurricane Milton was centered about 750 miles west-southwest of Tampa, Florida, moving toward the east-southeast at 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 100 mph. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for parts of the Yucatan Peninsula, and Hurricane Watches are in effect for much of western Florida. Milton is expected to continue to strengthen for the next day or so, likely reaching Category 4 intensity as it turns more toward the northeast. However, by later Tuesday, upper-level conditions will become more hostile, and Milton should start to weaken, and in fact, could weaken rather quickly. However, it will still likely make landfall along the Florida Gulf Coast late Wednesday or early Thursday, but exactly where landfall will happen is still a question mark, and a fairly significant one. The strongest winds and highest storm surge will be to the right of the center. Some models bring the storm in near or north of Tampa, others to the south. A track south of Tampa means offshore winds for Tampa Bay, and not only would the storm surge be a lot less, it could actually send much of the water out of the Bay. However, a track just to the north of Tampa sends all the surge into the Bay, which would be very bad for the Tampa area. No matter where it makes landfall, it will bring additional heavy rain to much of Florida, with strong winds well inland. Once it makes landfall, it should continue to steadily weaken, and become extratropical as it moves off the east coast of Florida and into the Atlantic.
Hurricane Milton continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Loop provided by NOAA.
Well out in the Atlantic, we have Hurricanes Kirk and Leslie. As of 5am, Kirk still had maximum sustained winds near 75 mph, and was centered about 765 miles west-northwest of the Azores, moving toward the northeast at 30 mph. Kirk is expected to become extratropical later today as it heads eastward, and will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of northwestern Europe later this week. Meanwhile, Hurricane Leslie is centered about 1065 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, heading northwestward at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 90 mph. Leslie is expected to continue northwestward over open water this week while slowly weakening.
The tropics remain active today. Image provided by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.
Monday: Cloudy with showers likely, ending late in the day. High 60-67.
Monday night: Clearing. Low 43-50.
Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 59-66.
Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 38-45.
Wednesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 58-65.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and cool. High 54-61.
Friday: Lots of sunshine. High 58-65.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and milder. High 66-73.
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, showers possible at night. High 61-68.
Columbus Day: Partly to mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance for showers. High 53-60.
Changes are on the way as we head through the weekend. Meanwhile, the tropics remain active.
Drought conditions are beginning to develop across our area. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.
High pressure remains in control into Friday with dry and mild conditions. A cold front will start to move our way on Friday, with clouds streaming in ahead of it in the afternoon. The front will produce a few showers late Friday night and early Saturday, then skies clear out in the afternoon behind the front. We’ll remain fairly mild behind the front on Saturday, but as high pressure slowly moves in, we’ll turn a little cooler on Sunday despite more sunshine. Clouds start to filter in later Sunday ahead of a stronger cold front. That front will bring in some rain late Sunday night and Monday, but its bigger impact will be even cooler weather moving in behind it for the middle part of next week.
Cooler than normal temperatures are expected across the region next week. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.
The Atlantic remains active with two named storms, though neither is expected to impact land over the next week or so. Hurricane Kirk is now a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 125 mph. It is centered about 1130 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving toward the northwest at 10 mph. Kirk may strengthen a bit more, likely reaching Category 4 strength, but it will turn more toward the north and then northeast, crossing the open waters of the North Atlantic. It should start to weaken over the weekend, and become extratropical early next week. It could impact parts of western Europe with strong winds and heavy rain toward the middle to latter part of next week. We also have Tropical Storm Leslie, which has maximum sustained winds near 45 mph. Leslie is centered about 540 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving toward the west at 5 mph. Forecasts call for Leslie to steadily strengthen, likely becoming a hurricane in the next day or two. Leslie could become a rather potent storm by early next week, but it should be turning more toward the northwest, and will likely not impact any land areas.
Both Kirk and Leslie should remain over open water for the next several days. Image provided by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy, areas of patchy fog may develop. Low 47-54.
Friday: Some morning sun, then clouds increase and thicken up in the afternoon. High 67-74.
Friday night: Mostly cloudy with some showers developing, mostly after midnight. Low 52-59.
Saturday: Showers end in the morning, skies clear out in the afternoon. High 67-74.
Saturday night: Clear skies, cooler. Low 44-51.
Sunday: Lots of sunshine, clouds start to move in by late in the day. High 62-69.
We’re flipping the calendar to October, but it will remain fairly mild around here this week and pretty active in the tropics.
Friday looks like the pick of the week with temperatures well into the 70s for much of the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.
The week starts off with high pressure in control, keeping us dry and seasonably cool, but sunshine will be limited. The combination of east to northeast winds off the Atlantic and high clouds streaming in from what’s left of Helene will result in gray skies for the most part, with a little fog developing each morning as well. A cold front moves in on Wednesday, but it will only be accompanied by a few showers, so much of the region may remain dry once again, but temperatures should turn milder with southwest winds ahead of the front. High pressure builds in behind the front with clearing and mild temperatures for Thursday and Friday. Another cold front will move early in the weekend with some more showers, then high pressure returns for the end of the weekend.
The tropics remain active to start the week. Images provided by the National Hurricane Center.
As for the tropics, we have three active systems right now, and another could be on the way. Tropical Storm Isaac was centered about 515 miles north-northwest of the Azores as of 5am Monday, moving toward the east-northeast at 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds were down to 65mph. Isaac should become extratropical later today while heading northeastward over the open waters of the North Atlantic. Tropical Depression Joyce is centered about 910 miles east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving toward the west at 2mph. Maximum sustained winds were down to 35 mph, and the storm is expected to turn northward and dissipate over open water in the next day or two. Tropical Depression 12 is centered about 690 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving toward the west at 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph. The system should quickly strengthen, becoming a tropical storm later today, and a hurricane in the next couple of days. It could become a rather potent storm later this week, but it should turn more toward the northwest, not impacting any land areas at all.
Tropical Depression 12 is getting better organized this morning. Loop provided by NOAA.
There are two other areas we’re keeping an eye on this week. The first is the western Caribbean, where there is a mass of disorganized showers and thunderstorms this morning, but forecast models show the potential for them to organize into a system over the next few days. Assuming it develops, it could move into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, but it’s far too early to speculate on where it may go beyond that, or how strong it might be, as there isn’t a system yet to track. The other area is a tropical wave that just moved off the west coast of Africa. There’s not much too it right now, but forecast models show the potential for it to develop as it moves westward across the Atlantic later this week.
The various members of the ECMWF Ensemble show the Atlantic remaining active over the next two weeks. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com.
Monday: Areas of morning fog, then intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 67-74.
Monday night: Mostly cloudy with some patchy fog. Low 51-58.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy. High 62-69.
Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 49-56.
Wednesday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a shower. High 62-69.
Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 68-75.
Friday: Partly sunny, showers possible at night. High 71-78.
Saturday: Chance for morning showers, then becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 66-73.
Once the rain ends, we’ve got some rather nice weather coming up for the weekend. Meanwhile, the tropics are getting active again with Major Hurricane Helene heading for the Florida Panhandle, Tropical Storm Isaac in the North Atlantic, and potentially another system this weekend.
Some much-needed rainfall is expected across the region tonight. Image provided by WeatherBell.
A cold front will cross the region tonight, taking the rain with it by morning as it moves offshore. High pressure will then build in, and remain in control through Monday, keeping us dry and mild, but don’t expect bright sunshine the entire time. We’ll have some slow clearing behind the front on Friday, especially near the South Coast and the Cape. After that, some high-level moisture from Hurricane Helene and its remnants (more on that in a minute) will stream up here. This will result in filtered sunshine for Saturday and likely part of Sunday too. We’ll also have northeast winds around the high pressure area to our north bringing in some clouds at times from the Atlantic. Monday will probably feature the most sunshine, but there will still be some clouds around.
The tropics are getting active again with both Hurricane Helene and Tropical Storm Isaac. Image provided by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.
Hurricane Helene continues to strength as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. As of 4pm EDT, Helene was centered about 145 miles west-southwest of Tampa, Florida, moving toward the north-northeast at 21 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 120 mph, making Helene at Category 3 Hurricane. Helene’s future is fairly simple at this point. It will continue north-northeastward, with a little more strengthening likely, then it will make landfall in the Florida Big Bend area tonight. This is a sparsely populated region of Florida, which is the only “good” news we have with this storm. A storm surge of 15-20 feet is likely near and to the right of where the center makes landfall. Helene is a very large storm, with tropical storm force winds up to 350 miles from the center of the storm. With this in mind, strong winds are likely well inland after landfall, likely into southern or central Georgia, with widespread wind damage expected.
Hurricane Helene is marching toward the Florida Big Bend. Loop provided by the College of DuPage.
The biggest threat will be heavy rain well inland. Much of the Southeast has already received 3-6 inches of rain in the past day or two from a frontal system, and Helene will add another 5-10 inches or more to that. While this region has been in a drought and needs rainfall, too much rainfall doesn’t help as much and creates widespread flooding. An upper-level low pressure system over the Mississippi Valley will capture the remains of Helene this weekend, slowing it down across the Tennessee Valley before it finally dissipates, bringing even more rain to this region as well.
Helene will produce heavy rain over a very large area over the next few days. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Helene isn’t the only show in town though. We also have Tropical Storm Isaac, centered about 820 miles east-northeast of Bermuda as of 11am EDT, moving toward the east at 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph. Isaac is expected to steadily strengthen, and could become a hurricane this weekend. It should continue eastward or east-northeastward over the open waters of the North Atlantic, becoming extratropical early next week, at which point it could be heading towards Europe.
Tropical Storm Isaac is gradually organizing in the North Atlantic. Loop provided by NOAA.
But wait, there’s more! Another area of low pressure in the central Atlantic, several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to get better organized this afternoon, and conditions are favorable for it to become a tropical depression later today or Friday. The system could become a tropical storm over the weekend, but should eventually turn more toward the north and head out into the open Atlantic without impacting any land areas for the next week or so.
The next system should head out to sea without impacting land. Loop provided by Tomer Burg.
Thursday night: Cloudy with rain gradually ending, some clearing late at night, mainly from the Merrimack Valley northward, some patchy fog may also develop. Low 54-61.
Friday: A few lingering showers early across Cape Cod and the South Coast, otherwise, skies become mostly sunny in the morning, then high clouds stream back in during the afternoon. High 69-76.
Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 51-58.
Saturday: Sunshine filtered through high clouds. High 66-73.
Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 50-57.
Sunday was the first day of fall, and we’ll have some fall weather for most of the upcoming week.
Temperatures will be a little cooler than normal over the next several days. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
The low pressure system that brought all the rain and cool weather to the region over the weekend has drifted off to the south, and high pressure has built in from the north, which will bring us some drier weather for the next few days. However, the flow in between the two systems will result in northeast winds, keeping us cool, while also keeping some clouds around. By Wednesday, we’ll see a frontal system start to approach from the west, bringing more clouds in. It looks like most of the rain should hold off until night time, so Wednesday should be another dry day. That system will be a slow mover though, so another wet day is likely on Thursday. High pressure builds in for Friday and the weekend with drier air, but it’s not as simple as that may sound.
The models are in good agreement that we should get some beneficial rainfall Wednesday night and Thursday. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
A tropical system is likely to develop in the Gulf of Mexico over the next day or two, and forecast models show it becoming a formidable system before landfall somewhere between New Orleans and Tampa later this week. Once inland, it will rapidly weaken, but the moisture from it will stream northward. Some models have the high pressure area block that moisture from getting up here, while other models have it get close, possibly to the South Coast, before the high blocks any farther progress northward. So, for now, our forecast is for dry weather next weekend, but that could change by the time we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.
Most of the Ensemble members are in good agreement on a track toward the Florida Panhandle later this week with a developing tropical system. Loop provided by Tomer Burg.
Monday: More clouds than sunshine, breezy near the coast. High 60-67.
Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 48-55.
Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sun, breezy near the coast. High 61-68.
Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 50-57.
Wednesday: Plenty of clouds, slight chance for a shower during the day, more likely at night. High 62-69.
Thursday: Cloudy with showers likely, ending late in the day. High 64-71.
That line from “Time Stand Still” by Rush, often describes late August or September around here, and it will for at least part of this week.
Temperatures will be below normal for the next several days. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
We’re starting the week off with a slow-moving cold front making its way across the region, resulting in aa fairly damp Monday with occasional showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. The front moves offshore early Tuesday, with showers coming to an end, and some clearing behind the front by late in the day as high pressure starts to build in. However, an upper-level low pressure system will then settle into the Northeast for Wednesday and Thursday. As a result, both days will start off with some sunshine, then clouds will develop, with a few showers possible each afternoon. Temperatures will be quite cool, with many places likely staying in the 60s for highs. We could even see a few of the normally cooler locations drop into the 40s at night. As the upper low moves out and high pressure slides offshore, we’ll start to warm up for the end of the week and the weekend, with temperatures getting back to near to above normal levels. Another system could move in by the end of the weekend with some unsettled weather, but the more likely scenario is that it holds off until the start of next week.
There may be some downpours today, but most of the models do not show significant rainfall for our area. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Hurricane Ernesto will continue to generate large swells at the beaches for a few more days, so use caution if you have plans near the coast. As of 11pm Sunday, Ernesto was centered about 435 south-southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia, moving off toward the north-northeast at 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 80 mph. Ernesto is expected to turn more toward the northeast and east-northeast today, passing south of Newfoundland tonight as it becomes extratropical.
Ernesto will continue to generate large waves in the North Atlantic for a few more days. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com
Finally, we’d like to acknowledge that today marks the 33rd anniversary of Hurricane Bob making landfall along the South Coast. We’ve had some close calls in the years since then, but have not had a hurricane make landfall in New England or Long Island since Bob. This is the 2nd longest landfall drought on record for the region. Since 1851, 18 hurricanes have made landfall in this area, or one every 9.6 years, so we are very overdue. Of the 18 hurricanes that made landfall in New England or Long Island since 1851, 15 of them have done so between August 19 and September 27, so this is the time of year that we need to be especially vigilant, though the Atlantic looks to remain quiet for at least the next week or so.
Track of Hurricane Bob, August 16-19, 1991. Image provided by the National Weather Service.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with occasional showers, a rumble or two of thunder, and a few breaks of sunshine. High 74-81.
Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a few more showers. Low 57-64.
Tuesday: Any lingering showers end early, some clearing develops late in the day. High 67-74.
Tuesday night: Becoming clear. Low 50-57.
Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few showers. High 65-72.
Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, chance for a shower or two. High 67-74.
Most of the weekend should feature some nice weather, thanks to Hurricane Ernesto.
Monday will feature some rather cool temperatures thanks to some rain. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
An upper-level low over Atlantic Canada will lift back out tonight, with any lingering showers or thunderstorms ending this evening. High pressure then builds in for Friday and Saturday with drier weather, though smoke drifting down from Canadian wildfires will dim the sun at times. Another upper-level low will settle into the Great Lakes, with a surface low pressure and its associated cold front slowly making their way eastward over the next few days. Hurricane Ernesto will be heading north and then northeastward well east of the region this weekend, but it will act to slow down the front, keeping us on the dry side. Some clouds will move in ahead of it, but it looks like the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the front will hold off until late Sunday. As the front moves in, showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread Sunday night and Monday before the front moves offshore later Monday.
A slowing moving cold front will produce heavy rain at the end of the weekend, but the heaviest will stay to our west. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
As for Hurricane Ernesto, it has Bermuda in its crosshairs at the moment. As of 5pm, Ernesto was centered about 495 miles south-southwest of Bermuda, moving toward the north at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 85 mph. The forecast calls for Ernesto to strengthen a little more tonight and Friday while heading northward, passing very close to Bermuda Friday night and early Saturday as it slows down. Beyond that, it will start to turn more toward the northeast, gradually weakening as it loses its tropical characteristics this weekend while passing south of Atlantic Canada. It could bring some heavy rain and gusty winds to parts of Newfoundland, but the bigger impact it will have, except for what it does to Bermuda, will be the large swells it generates. Rough seas are likely this weekend, with large waves smashing into the East Coast from the Carolinas northward to Atlantic Canada, resulting in hazardous conditions at the beaches and a high risk for rip currents, as well as the threat for some coastal flooding near the time of high tide, as we are approaching the astronomical high tides for the month.
Forecast track for Hurricane Ernesto. Image provided by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.
Thursday night: Showers and thunderstorms end this evening, partly to mostly cloudy overnight with areas of fog developing. Low 59-66.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, smoke from Canadian wildfires will dim the sun at times. High 77-84, coolest along the coast.
Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, patchy fog possible again. Low 60-67.
Saturday: Hazy sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 77-84.
Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 62-69.
Sunday: More clouds than sun, some showers and thunderstorms may develop in the afternoon. High 75-82.
Sunday night: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms becoming more likely. Low 62-69.
Monday: Plenty of clouds with more showers and thunderstorms. High 73-80.
Storm HQ 