We’re about to flip the calendar to June, which marks the start of meteorological summer. It also marks the start of Hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin (North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico).

Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs from June 1 through November 30, but it got off to an extraordinarily early start again in 2017 when Tropical Storm Arlene formed back in April. Alex became the second tropical storm on record during the month of April in the Atlantic when it strengthened on April 20. Arlene stayed out in the open Atlantic without affecting any land areas, before merging with a larger extratropical storm on April 23. The next storm that forms will be given the name Bret.

In a normal season, the Atlantic Basin sees 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes and 3 become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale). While there are plenty of hurricane forecasts out there, these were pioneered by Dr. William Gray. His research team at Colorado State University continues his work, and for this season is calling for 11 named storms, of which 4 could become hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. They are scheduled to release an updated forecast on Thursday.

Of course, an active season doesn’t guarantee that a storm will make landfall in the United States though. In 2010, there were 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. Only 1 storm, Tropical Storm Bonnie, made landfall in the United States. On the flip side, 1992 was a quiet season, with just 7 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane, with the first named storm not forming until August 16. Of course, that first storm was Andrew, which slammed into South Florida on August 24 as a Category 5 hurricane, one of just 3 Category 5 storms to ever make landfall in the United States.

The peak of the season usually occurs from mid-August through late September, but an early start isn’t unusual. On average, the first named storm of the season occurs on July 9, with the first hurricane forming around August 10. In 2015, there were two tropical storms during May and June (Ana and Bill), while 2012 saw 4 named systems (Alberto, Beryl, Chris, and Debby) with 1 hurricane (Chris) forming before the end of June. Last year, 2 storms formed before the end of May (Hurricane Alex in January, Tropical Storm Bonnie in late May), then 2 more tropical storms in June (Colin and Danielle)

Here in New England, we should always pay attention when a storm is nearing the Bahamas, as those are the ones that have the potential to impact us. Using data back to 1851, a tropical storm makes landfall in Southern New England or Long Island once every 4 years, while a hurricane makes landfall once every 8 years. The last tropical storm to make landfall was Irene, which passed right over New York City in 2011, so we’re about due for another one. As for hurricanes, while we’ve been threatened several times in the past few years, the last one to make landfall was Hurricane Bob in 1991. That 26-year gap is the 2nd longest on record, second only to the 28 year gap between 1896 and 1924. In other words, we are very overdue.

The Atlantic remains fairly quiet right now, and we’re not expecting anything for form in the next few days. Even if something were to form soon and head this way, the waters off of New England are too cold to sustain a tropical system, so we’d see something more like a typical nor’easter. Only two tropical storms have ever made landfall in the Northeast before the end of June. The first was an unnamed minimal tropical storm that crossed Long Island and went into southern Connecticut on May 30, 1908. The other was Tropical Storm Agnes, which made landfall near New York City on June 22, 1972, then caused devastating flooding across parts of the Mid-Atlantic states. In terms of hurricanes, the earliest one to ever make landfall up this way was Hurricane Belle, which slammed into Long Island with 90 mph winds on August 9, 1976. We did have Hurricane Arthur pass just offshore of Nantucket on July 4 in 2014. While it did not make landfall, it made for a rather wet and cool holiday, especially across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts. Statistically, the most likely time for a hurricane to hit New England is between the middle of August and late September. Of the 23 hurricanes that made landfall in New England or Long Island since 1851, 20 of them have done so between August 19 and September 27.

Some of the statistics in this post were supplied by Gary Gray and David Vallee. David is probably the local expert in Southern New England on tropical systems and their impacts on the region. He’s written several papers on them including a nice review of 20th Century storms.

“Just when they think they got the answers, I change the questions!” – Roddy Piper

At this time yesterday, we were gaining more and more confidence in our forecast for Matthew. Then the midday models started rolling in, and we started scratching our heads. Instead of coming close to Florida and then heading up the coast, passing south and east of New England, the models started doing some wacky things. First, one of them had it menace the Southeast, then do a big loop back into the Bahamas before hitting Florida again in a much-weakened state. Then, another model did something similar. “It’s just two outliers” is what we thought, the rest still bring it up the coast. We were still fairly confident in our forecast. Then, the GFS model came out around midnight:

At that point, our forecast went right out the window.What seemed like an anomaly from one or two models, was quickly becoming the consensus. The GFS model, which had been very consistent with a track up the East Coast, suddenly changed gears, and had Matthew threaten Florida and the Bahamas not once, but twice. Oh, it still brought Matthew up the coast, bringing rain and gusty winds to parts of New England for the weekend, but now it was doing it NEXT weekend, not this weekend.

Not all of the models are showing this loop, but as you can see in the image above, there are several that do now. Before we get into what we think might happen, we’ll get into what is causing this peculiar forecast. Looking at the upper atmosphere this morning, we see a trough of low pressure across much of the West, and a ridge of high pressure in the East. There’s also a pretty strong jet stream moving into the West Coast and into the Rockies, before it makes a sharp left turn in the Mississippi Valley.

As this trough of low pressure moves eastward, the models had been projecting that it would strengthen and sharpen up, in effect “capturing” Matthew as the trough neared the East Coast. The southerly winds ahead of the trough would drive Matthew northward or northeastward, and bring it up the coast. Instead, the models are now showing that this trough will actually weaken as it moves eastward, and flatten out. As a result, high pressure will build back in, blocking Matthew from moving northward. This would turn Matthew back towards the south and let it mill around in the Bahamas. Not all of the models are showing this scenario. Some still have the trough just strong enough to draw Matthew northward enough that the westerly winds of the jet stream are able to push it out to sea once it gets up towards the Carolinas.

This leads us to more questions, which is where the quote at the top of the post comes in.If Matthew does not get pulled north and head out to sea, then what does its future hold? Some models have it loop around, back into the Bahamas, then back towards Florida before turning northeast and heading up the coast again next week. Another one sends it back into Florida as a much weaker tropical storm, then across the state and into the Gulf of Mexico where it eventually weakens and dissipates. At this point, we’re back to “wait and see” mode.

What we do know is this: There are hurricane warnings in effect for much of Florida and the Bahamas. Hurricane Matthew is still a Category 3 storm with top winds near 120 mph this afternoon. It is going to move through the Bahamas over the next 24 hours, and then come dangerously close to the Atlantic coast of Florida, with landfall a possibility, but not definite. It will likely head northward, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to much of eastern Florida, southeastern Georgia, South Carolina, and southeastern North Carolina over the next few days. After that? That’s a really good question that we just can’t answer right now.

By now you’ve probably heard, there’s a new storm in the Atlantic, and it’s named Matthew. OK, you probably knew that, because the hype machine from the media has gone into overdrive for the past few days. Why has that happened? Some of the computer forecast models have indicated that there’s a possibility that Matthew could hit the East Coast? How likely is that? We’ll delve into that shortly. First, we’ll get into what we do know.

As of 2pm EDT on Friday, Matthew was a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph.The storm was centered a little less than 100 miles off the northern coast of Colombia, and was moving off towards the west-southwest at 12 mph. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha.

It is actually pretty rare to have a storm impact the ABC Islands (Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao) and northern South America. There have been a few wind gusts to near tropical storm force in Aruba and Bonaire today, but for the most part, it’s just been a breezy and cloudy day in an area that usually is sunny and warm. When Matthew crossed the island of Martinique a few nights ago, it produced sustained winds of 40 mph and a gust to 60 mph at the airport in St. Pierre, with reports of gusts of up to 89 mph on the island. There was several reports of damage across the island.

OK, that’s what we know. Here’s what we’re fairly sure about. Matthew should turn more towards the northwest and eventually north this weekend with some more strengthening possible. It may become a category 4 hurricane. Unfortunately, it is also going to pass very close to Jamaica late Sunday and early Monday. It may even make landfall on the island. Even a glancing blow will likely result in widespread damage across the island. After that, Matthew should continue northward, and it will pass very near or over extreme western Haiti or eastern Cuba before heading into the Bahamas. Some slight weakening is possible due to interaction with the land areas, but Matthew should still be a strong hurricane (Category 2 or 3) when it enters the Bahamas.

Now, the part that nobody knows with any certainty – what happens after Matthew gets into the Bahamas. This is the big question, and a lot of it has to do with what the upper-level pattern looks like. A trough of low pressure will be starting to move out of the Northeast while another one moves into the Great Plains. In between, a ridge of high pressure will be moving into the East. Exactly how quickly these features move eastward will determine which way Matthew goes.

As you can see from the images above, there are dozens of possibilities as to where Matthew can go. Based on the most recent model runs, a track through the Bahamas and then northward off the Carolinas is the most likely outcome, but there are still some models that have the storm stall in the Bahamas or even drift closer to Florida or possibly into the Gulf of Mexico. Once it gets up towards the Carolinas, there are even more possibilities to consider. The storm could continue up the coast and threaten the Northeast. It could start to turn northeastward and threaten Atlantic Canada. It could head harmlessly out to sea. At least one model shows it doing nearly all of the above! This model has it head out to sea, then hook back northwestward, and head towards eastern New England and Nova Scotia/New Brunswick.

At this point, we really have to wait and see how the pattern evolves before we’ll have a better idea as to what Matthew is going to do. If it is going to impact the Northeast, the time frame would be towards next weekend.So, keep an eye on Matthew’s progress if you have plans for that time frame.

Labor Day Weekend is here, and the big question on everyone’s mind is “What is Hermine going to do?” We’ll try to answer that as best as we can right now.

First, we’ll give you the facts. As of 2pm EDT, Hermine was centered about 90 miles east of Duck, North Carolina, moving toward the east at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph. Hermine is now a “post-tropical” storm. What does that mean? Well, to start with, it means that’s it’s no longer tropical. It’s more like a typical Nor’easter that we see throughout the fall, winter, and spring. As you can see in the satellite loop above, most of the thunderstorm activity is now well north of the center of circulation. Tropical systems contain thunderstorm activity concentrated near the center of the storm.

Despite the fact that Hermine is no longer tropical, Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for the East Coast from Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina to Watch Hill, Rhode Island. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Watch Hill up to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, which includes all of Cape Cod, the Islands, and the coast of Rhode Island.

So, if it’s no longer tropical, why are there tropical storm watches and warnings in effect? There are two reasons for this. The first, and simplest one, is the fact that there is a chance Hermine could re-acquire tropical characteristics as it sits over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream over the next few days. The other reason is related to Sandy. As you may recall, when Sandy slammed into New Jersey in 2012, there were no hurricane warnings in effect, despite the fact that Sandy was still a Category 1 hurricane while offshore. The reason there were not warnings was because Sandy was expected to become “post-tropical” before landfall, and the rules that the Hurricane Center had to abide by at the time did not allow them to issue watches/warnings if the system was not expected to impact the coast as a tropical system. (Yeah, we think it was stupid too.) So, they changed those rules, and this is the first test of them.

So, what does the future actually hold for Hermine? Hermine will stall out east of the Delmarva Peninsula tonight and Sunday as it gets stuck under an upper-level low pressure system. It will then drift around south of Long Island for a few days. While it’s sitting over the warm water there, it could become a tropical system again (possibly even a hurricane), but that won’t last too long. Why? As it sits over the same area, it will churn up the waters, which will bring cooler water to the surface through a mechanism called “upwelling.” As this cooler water comes up, the system will lose the warm water it needs to sustain a tropical system, and then lose any tropical characteristics it may have gotten back. In other words, it’ll be “post-tropical” again.

In terms of sensible weather, Hermine is going to lay the smack down on the Mid-Atlantic states. Rough surf will pound the coast, especially in New Jersey, for several days, along with strong winds right along the coast. Wind gusts of 40-60 mph are expected along the Mid-Atlantic coast, along with some periods of rain, though the heaviest rain should stay off shore for the most part.

What about here in New England? We’re going to escape the brunt of it. There will be some very rough seas, starting on Sunday and likely continuing through at least Wednesday. It’s probably a good idea to stay out of the water if you’re heading to the beach, as the risk for rip currents will be high. Likewise, you probably don’t want to be heading out on a boat, with seas of 10-20 feet expected. If you’re taking one of the ferries to the Vineyard, Nantucket, or Block Island, there will likely be times where they have to cancel them due to rough seas. In terms of winds, the strong winds are likely right along the South Coast and across the Cape and Islands. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph or more are likely at times right through at least Tuesday. The bulk of the rain will stay to our south, but periodic showers and occasional batches of steady rain will come through at times over the next several days. The graphic above might be overdone in terms of how much rainfall we’ll get, but there will likely be some rain at times, especially the farther south you head.

Hermine likely won’t start to move out of the picture until the latter half of the week. Until then, we’ll just head to deal with clouds, periodic showers, occasionally strong winds, and rough surf for several days. In other words, it’ll feel like a typical April week, expect temperatures will be in the upper 60s and 70s instead of 40s and 50s.

(Note: This post was edited to reflect the fact that Hermine was upgraded to a hurricane at 3pm EDT)

We’re just about to start the Labor Day Weekend, traditionally summer’s last gasp around here, and the big question on everyone’s mind is “Will Hurricane Hermine ruin my plans?” The short answer is “maybe.”

First, let’s start off with the basic facts. As of 3pm EDT, Hurricane Hermine was centered about 115 miles south-southwest of Apalachicola, Florida, and was moving towards the north-northeast at 14 mph. The storm has maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, and some more strengthening is possible before landfall just east of Apalachicola tonight.A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the coast of Florida from Mexico Beach to the mouth of the Suwanee River. Hurricane watches and Tropical Storm Warnings are also in effect for much of the remainder of the Florida Gulf Coast, as well as much of the Atlantic Coast from northeastern Florida up to North Carolina.

OK, now that we’ve got the facts spelled out, here’s what we’re fairly sure about: Hermine will likely make landfall a little east of Apalachicola, Florida tonight. This will be the 1st hurricane to make landfall in Florida since Hurricane Wilma on October 24, 2005, ending Florida’s record 11-year “hurricane drought.” Once it makes landfall it will move up across Georgia and into the Carolinas, slowly weakening while dropping heavy rainfall on the region. Flooding is almost a certainty in some areas. The center of Hermine should move back out into the Atlantic off the North Carolina coastline, possibly as far north as Norfolk, Virginia by late Saturday. Once off the coast, the storm will likely drift northward and then stall east of the Delmarva Peninsula on Sunday. This is where things get tricky.

We’ve gone over what is going on currently, and what we’re fairly sure will happen over the next 2-3 days. Now, we’ll delve into the parts that we don’t have a handle on yet. Once the storm stalls east of the Delmarva Peninsula, we have a lot of questions that just can’t be answered right now. Where does it actually stall? How long does it stall? Which way does it drift once it does stall? How strong will it be? How large will the wind field be? How large will the precipitation field be? These are all important details that have a HUGE effect on the forecast. Unfortunately, we won’t have a better idea of these details for another 24 or even 48 hours.

While we’re not expecting Hermine to be a hurricane once its off the Delmarva Peninsula, it could still be a tropical storm once it is east of the Delmarva Peninsula. More likely, it will become extratropical. What does that mean? To put it in simple terms, it will be more like a typical Nor’easter around here.

If you’ve got Labor Day Weekend plans, don’t scrap them just yet, but have a backup plan ready. The farther north your plans are, the less likely that you’ll be impacted. However, the closer you are to the South Coast or the Cape, the greater the chance that you may be dealing with gusty winds and/or rainfall. (Rough surf is a virtual lock at this point, so staying out of the water is probably a good idea).

We should be able to provide an update this weekend, once things become a little more certain.

The peak of hurricane season is normally a 6-week period from late August until late September. This year is no exception. We currently have five active tropical systems that we’re tracking, and more may be on the way. Of the five that are currently out there, all of them are a threat to some land areas, four of them to parts of the United States.

We’ll start in the Central Pacific where Hurricane Madeline is bearing down on parts of the Hawaiian Islands. As of 8am HST Tuesday, Hurricane Madeline was centered about 415 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii, moving towards the west at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph, making Madeline a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning have been issued for the Big Island of Hawaii, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Molokai, and Lanai. It is extremely rarely for a storm impact Hawaii as a hurricane when moving in from the east. The current forecast calls for Madeline to pass just south of the Big Island with some weakening expected. Most hurricanes that impact Hawaii are traveling from south to north. Madeline should pass close enough to Hawaii to bring strong winds and heavy rain to some of the southernmost islands. Rainfall totals of 5-10 inches and locally heavier are possible, especially in the windward sides of the islands. Rough surf will pound most of the islands for the next several days.

Next up is Hurricane Lester, which was centered about 1350 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii at midday, moving toward the west at 14 mph. Lester has top winds near 120 mph, is expected to steadily weaken over the next few days while continuing in a general westward direction. While Lester is not a threat to land for the next few days, that could change by the end of the week. The current track calls for Lester to gradually turn more towards the west-northwest and northwest by Friday and Saturday, passing a little north of the Hawaiian Islands. While this track would likely spare the islands from most of the wind and rain, if Lester makes that turn a bit later, it would pass a lot closer to the islands. Residents of Hawaii should make sure to keep tabs on Lester’s progress once Madeline moves away from the region.

Closer to the mainland we find Tropical Depression Eight. The storm was centered about 70 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina early Tuesday afternoon and was nearly stationary. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph. A slow drift toward the north is expected tonight and Wednesday, with some strengthening possible as the storm moves over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of North Carolina from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet. Wins gusts to 30-40 mph and locally heavy rainfall are expected over the Outer Banks of North Carolina tonight and Wednesday. After that, the system should start to head out into the Atlantic and dissipate by later in the week.

Finally, we get to Tropical Depression Nine, which was centered about 340 miles west of Key West, Florida at midday Tuesday. The storm has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, and was moving towards the west-northwest at 7 mph. This is the same storm we’ve been watching for a week-and-a-half that was supposed to be the next “Storm of the Century”. Well, it might finally be starting to get its act together. The forecast for this system calls for a turn more towards the north and eventually northeast as an upper-level trough of low pressure starts to steer the system. Strengthening is expected, and the depression could become a tropical storm tonight or early Wednesday. Tropical Storm Watches will likely be issued for parts of the Gulf Coast later today or tonight. Some of the models show the possibility of the storm becoming a hurricane before making landfall along the Florida Gulf Coast later this week. Once it makes landfall, it should quickly cross the Southeast, then emerge into the Atlantic, where some re-strengthening is possible. The system will likely bring heavy rain and gusty winds to parts of the Carolinas, but beyond that its future is uncertain. Some models indicate that it will continue northeastward, out into the Atlantic, while others try to slow it down and head northward up the East Coast in a much-weakened state. Since this could have an adverse impact on the Labor Day Weekend up here, we need to pay close attention to it.

Finally, a new tropical wave has emerged from the coast of Africa. This wave will cross the Cape Verde Islands tonight, then head westward across the Atlantic. Conditions are favorable for further development, and many of the forecast models show the possibility of this system strengthening over the next several days. It is still at least 5 days away from impacting the eastern Caribbean, so there is plenty of time to monitor its progress before it threatens any land areas. If it does do what the models are showing, expect the hype machine to get cranked up to maximum again, as the next “Storm of the Century of the Week” could be a threat to the East Coast.

As we get into the end of August, we are moving into the peak of hurricane season. As expected, the tropics have awakened, with plenty of activity to watch, but thus far, much of it remains disorganized.

Starting in the Atlantic, we have Tropical Storm Gaston. Gaston was centered about 900 miles east-southeast of Bermuda Friday evening, moving towards the northwest at 15 mph. While Gaston was briefly upgraded to a hurricane earlier in the week, it currently has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. Conditions are favorable for Gaston to strengthen this weekend and become a hurricane once again. The storm should turn more toward the north and eventually northeast, remaining over open waters into the start of the upcoming week.

A disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms is moving across the Central Bahamas this evening. This is the same storm that everyone on the Internet has been hyping up as next “Storm of the Century” for the past week. As you can see, it still hasn’t done anything, but that hasn’t stopped the hype at all. Conditions will be unfavorable into the weekend for any development of this system. Several models are still showing the potential for the system to develop once it gets into the Gulf of Mexico. Water temperatures are very warm across the Gulf, which would help to fuel any developing system. Will it ever develop? We’ll find out one way or the other in the next few days. Anyone with interests in and around the Gulf Coast should still keep an eye on the progress of this system, just in case it finally gets its act together.

Meanwhile, there is a weak trough of low pressure already located in the northern Gulf of Mexico this is being watched. Upper-level conditions are not favorable for development of this system, but it will bring heavy rainfall to portions of Louisiana and Texas this weekend. This is not good news for areas that were hit hard by flooding just a few weeks ago.

Another disturbance has developed just south of Bermuda this evening. This system is expected to remain weak for the next few days while moving very little. Eventually it should start drifting westward, and some slow development is possible. This system may bring some showers and thunderstorms to Bermuda this weekend and parts of eastern North Carolina during the early part of the upcoming week, but otherwise should not have much of an impact on any land areas.

While the Atlantic is filled with potential tropical systems, the Pacific has a couple of named systems, one of which could be a threat to land.

Hurricane Lester was centered about 550 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico Friday evening. Lester has maximum sustained winds near 75 mph, and additional strengthening is expected. Lester is currently moving toward the west at 9 mph, and a general westerly track is expected to continue through the weekend. Lester is not a threat to land for the next several days, however, some models are showing that it could have some impacts of Hawaii towards next weekend.

Tropical Storm Madeline could be a more immediate threat to Hawaii. Tropical Depression 14-E developed earlier on Friday about 1250 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, and was upgraded to Tropical Storm Madeline Friday evening. Madeline has maximum sustained winds near 40 mph, and additional strengthening is expected. Madeline could become a hurricane by the end of the weekend or beginning of next week. The storm is expected to track towards the northwest this weekend before turning more towards the west. On this track, Madeline could approach the Hawaiian Islands towards midweek. Residents of the region should keep an eye on Madeline’s progress during the next few days.

In the Western Pacific, Typhoon 12W Lionrock (Is that not the coolest name you’ve seen in a while for a tropical system?) has been slowly meandering around south of Japan for much of the past week, but that looks like it is about to change. As of Friday evening, the storm has maximum sustained winds near 110 mph, and some additional strengthening is possible this weekend. A track toward the northeast is expected this weekend, but a turn more toward the north and eventually northwest is likely by Sunday or Monday. On this track, the typhoon would make landfall in southeastern or eastern Japan on Monday.