Weekly Outlook: February 21-27, 2022

We’ve got a little bit of everything coming this week, unseasonably warm air (again), a snowstorm (again), some rain (again).

The week starts off with high pressure sliding offshore, allowing mild weather to return to the region today, with high temperatures likely topping 50 in many areas. Clouds start to stream in by late in the day though as low pressure heads toward the region. That low pressure system will pass north and west of the area later Tuesday, with gusty southwest winds bringing in very warm conditions in for Tuesday into Wednesday, with many places possibly topping 60 degrees on Wednesday. There are some indications that the warm air may struggle to move into southern and central New Hampshire on Tuesday, possibly holding off until Tuesday night, which may allow for a little freezing rain Tuesday evening. With the warm air comes some rain later Tuesday and Tuesday night, into early Wednesday morning. The rain ends when a strong cold front moves through, with skies clearing in the afternoon. High pressure builds in for Thursday with dry and cold conditions.

Wednesday could be a very mild day across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell

Another storm system moves into the Ohio Valley before redeveloping off the Mid-Atlantic coastline for Thursday night and Friday. There are still plenty of variables to be determined, but with colder air in place, we’ll likely see some snow to start. How much snow, and whether it changes over to sleet, freezing rain, and/or rain are questions that we cannot answer yet, but there is the chance for several inches of snow for at least part of the region. High pressure builds back in next weekend with dry and chilly conditions.

Thursday is looking wintry for at least part of the region for now. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Sunshine filtered through some high clouds at times. High 47-54.

Monday night: Increasing clouds. Low 26-33.

Tuesday: Some sunny breaks early, otherwise mostly cloudy and becoming breezy with showers developing in the afternoon. High 47-54, except possibly cooler across central and southern New Hampshire.

Tuesday night: Cloudy and windy with rain likely, possibly some freezing rain in parts of central or even southern New Hampshire for a while during the evening. Temperatures holding steady or rising overnight.

Wednesday: Lingering showers end early, clearing in the afternoon, breezy, and warm. High 58-65.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy and much colder, snow develops at night. High 31-38.

Friday: Breezy with snow likely, possibly mixing with or changing to sleet, freezing rain and plain rain, ending in the evening. High 30-37.

Saturday: Partly sunny and cold. High 25-32.

Sunday: Sunshine gives way to afternoon clouds. High 31-38.

Weekend Outlook: February 18-21, 2022

We’ve got a little bit of everything coming up over the next several days.

Temperatures are in the upper 50s and lower 60s across most of the region this afternoon. Image provided by NOAA.

We’re starting off with unseasonably mild temperatures in place. Some records were set during the afternoon, and it will remain quite mild tonight as low pressure passes north and west of the region. As that system passes by, it will drag a strong cold front toward the region. A period of rain is likely tonight, and some of it could be heavy. Could there be a rumble of thunder? It’s certainly possible. The combination of rain and mild temperatures should just about take care of any remaining snow on the ground for the most part. We’ll also have some strong winds tonight ahead of that front. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph are likely across the region, with gusts of 40-60 mph expected, possibly even stronger across the Cape and Islands as well as southeastern Massachusetts.

Strong wind gusts are expected across the region tonight. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The front moves through Friday morning, bringing an end to the rain, and also our mild weather. In fact, temperatures will likely drop during the day as gusty northwest winds usher colder air in, though the winds should diminish during the afternoon. High pressure briefly builds in for Friday night with clear skies and chilly temperatures. Another system will quickly follow for Saturday though. Clouds will stream back in, with some snow showers or squalls possible during the day, possibly mixed with rain across the South Coast and Cape Cod. We’re not expecting much, if any, accumulation for the most part, but a few of these snow showers or squalls could drop a quick 1/2 inch and coat the ground, so keep that in mind if you’ll be out driving. High pressure builds back in for Saturday night and Sunday with clear and chilly conditions once again. However, as that high slides off to the east, temperatures will moderate again for Monday.

Monday is looking like another mild day. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Thursday night: Cloudy and windy with rain likely, possibly heavy. Temperatures hold steady overnight.

Friday: Showers end early, skies start to clear out in the afternoon. Breezy early, but winds diminish during the afternoon. High 53-60 in the morning, temperatures drop during the day.

Friday night: Clear skies, but some clouds may start to move back in late at night. Low 13-20.

Saturday: More clouds than sunshine and becoming breezy with some snow showers or squalls possible, mixed with a little rain near the South Coast. High 33-40.

Saturday night: Becoming mostly clear. Low 12-19.

Sunday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 31-38.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 23-30.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, milder. High 46-53.

Weekly Outlook: February 14-20, 2022

We’ve got quite the week coming up with everything from some snow and bitterly cold temperatures to heavy rain and possibly more record highs by the end of the week.

Snow showers will come to an end this morning, then skies will start to clear out this afternoon as high pressure starts to build in. Despite the developing sunshine, temperatures will only be in the 20s, which is 10-15 degrees below normal for mid-February. As skies become clear tonight and winds diminish, combined with the fresh snowcover, we’ll have some radiational cooling. Temperatures will likely drop into the single numbers, with some sub-zero readings possible. Tuesday remains chilly, but not quite as cold as today as the high pressure area continues to build in. By Wednesday, that high shifts offshore, and a significant temperature moderation develops. The milder air will be accompanied by clouds though as a storm system begins to move toward the region.

Tuesday morning looks quite chilly across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

By Thursday, that system draws nearer, with gusty southwest winds sending temperatures well into the 50s and possibly 60s, with more record highs possible. While temperatures will be mild during the day, it looks like the warmest temperatures will be at night. We could be near or above 60 degrees at midnight Thursday night across the region. We’ll also have some heavy rain as the system gets closer, which combined with the mild weather, will help melt much of the snow that remains on the ground. A widespread soaking rainfall is likely, with rainfall totals of more than an inch possible. We wouldn’t even be surprised if there’s a rumble of thunder. This storm will likely produce some severe weather across the South, and while that’s not likely here, a few thunderstorms are possible. Friday likely starts off warm and wet with temperatures still in the 50s at daybreak, but as a strong cold front comes through during the morning, the rain will end, and temperatures will drop during the day. High pressure builds back in for the weekend with dry and seasonably cool conditions for Saturday, but we may start to turn milder again on Sunday.

Some record highs are possible on Thursday across the Northeast. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Snow showers ending in the morning, skies start to clear out by late in the day, breezy. High 18-25.

Monday night: Becoming mostly clear. Low -2 to +5.

Tuesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 23-30.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 6-13.

Wednesday: Sunny in the morning, clouds start to stream in during the afternoon, becoming breezy and milder. High 38-45.

Thursday: Plenty of clouds with some sunny breaks, especially in the morning, showers developing in the afternoon, becoming windy. Wind-swept rain likely at night, possibly some thunder as well. High 56-63. The warmest temperatures are likely at night.

Friday: Windy with rain ending in the morning, clearing during the afternoon. High 47-54 at daybreak, temperatures drop during the day.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 34-41.

Sunday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 35-42.

Back to Reality in a Hurry

Hope you enjoyed the record warmth today, because Mother Nature is going to quickly remind you that it is still February.

Temperatures got well into the 50s and lower 60s across the region Saturday afternoon. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Unseasonably mild temperatures continued across the region on Saturday, with a few records set, but a cold front moved through around midday, and a stronger one will move through this evening, bringing an abrupt end to the mild weather. Temperatures will quickly drop tonight as the front pushes offshore, and on Sunday, most places will likely be in the 30s or even upper 20s during the daytime. That’s not the big story though.

A wave of low pressure will ride along the front on Sunday, passing south and east of the region. It will be close enough to produce some light snow and snow showers across parts of eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, possibly even into southern New Hampshire, during Sunday morning and early afternoon. Most of the snow will remain light, with accumulations of an inch or two possible, mainly from Boston southward. The story doesn’t end there. As the low passes by, winds will shift into the northeast, which will result in some ocean-effect snow across parts of Cape Cod and coastal Plymouth County, and possibly Cape Ann as well. The areas that receive snow will be highly dependent on the wind direction. Northeast winds will spread the snow inland across southeastern Massachusetts, but as winds shift into the north Sunday night, the bands of ocean-effect snow will retreat closer to the coast of Plymouth County and across Cape Cod. By Monday morning, winds will shift into the northwest, bringing an end to the snow for most of us.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands as well as Plymouth County. Image provided by the National Weather Service office in Norton, MA.

How much snow may fall? North and West of I-495, just a dusting to perhaps a half an inch. From 495 to I-95, some spots could see an inch, possibly 2 inches. It’s areas south of Boston (and Cape Ann), that may need shovels (and possibly plows). Across interior portions of southeastern Massachusetts as well as Cape Ann, we could see 2-4 inches of snow. The “jackpot” is likely to be across coastal Plymouth County as well as parts of Cape Cod, where as much as 4-7 inches could accumulate.

The heavy snow is likely from coastal Plymouth County into Cape Cod Sunday into early Monday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

High pressure builds in behind this system on Monday with much colder weather. Despite sunshine developing in the afternoon, temperatures will only rise into the lower to middle 20s for highs, with single numbers and lower teens likely Monday night as skies clear out and winds die down. Tuesday also looks chilly, though likely a few degrees milder, but a big warmup is likely for the middle to latter half of the week. In fact, we could make a run at 60 again on Thursday, before another system brings in some rain.

Tuesday morning looks rather chilly across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.

There are some indications that this arctic blast for Monday and Tuesday could be the last really cold blast of the winter. Oh, it’ll still be cold, it’s only mid-February after all, but days with highs in the 20s and lows in the single numbers or below zero may be done for the year, though this is far from a guarantee. We’ve been known to have arctic blasts into March and even early April, though with the increasing sun angle, they tend to lose their staying power. This does not mean that winter is over, not by a longshot. We still can get snow around here well into April and even May if things set up properly. The longer range models are indicating that a milder pattern should start to take hold soon, and last into March. However, these same models also still show the threat for snow well into March, so don’t go putting away the winter gear just yet.

Weekend Outlook: February 11-14, 2022

A couple of relatively mild days are expected, but changes are on the way again.

A couple of weak systems will cross the region over the next couple of days, but aside from some clouds, the most noticeable impacts will be mild temperatures ahead of each of the systems. In fact, many parts of the region could top 50 degrees on Saturday. However, a stronger cold front will move through late Saturday, bringing an end to our mild weather. As that front moves offshore and colder air settles in, a wave of low pressure will ride along the front on Sunday. While it will stay well south and east of us, it should be close enough to spread in some light snow or snow showers during the day on Sunday, especially south of Boston. This won’t be a major snowstorm, but an inch or two may accumulate across parts of southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod. As the system pulls away, snow will end Sunday night, and we’ll clear out on Monday, setting up a very chilly day despite increasing sunshine.

A little snow is possible on Sunday, especially south of Boston. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Clear skies. Low 24-31.

Friday: Sunshine to start the clear, clouds start to move in during the afternoon. High 42-49.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 34-41 during the evening, temperatures rise a little overnight.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 49-56, a little cooler across Cape Cod.

Saturday night: Becoming cloudy again, light snow or snow showers may develop towards daybreak. Low 21-28.

Sunday: Cloudy and colder with light snow or snow showers expected, especially south of Boston. High 27-34.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy, light snow or snow showers ending. Low 8-15.

Monday: Cloudy early, skies start to clear out in the afternoon. High 18-25.

Weekly Outlook: February 7-13, 2022

Much of the upcoming week will be dry and mild, but there are some exceptions.

A weak low pressure system will pass south and east of New England later today and tonight. It will spread some light rain into the area, though temperatures will be marginally cold enough for some light snow across the interior, mainly north and west of I-495. Rain ends late tonight, followed by gradual clearing on Tuesday. After that, we’ll have generally dry and mild weather through the remainder of the week, though some disturbances will spread in some clouds and possibly a few showers at times. We may turn colder again next weekend, but there are no big storms in sight.

Any snow today and tonight will be across the interior. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Cloudy with showers developing, mixed with snow across the interior. High 35-42.

Monday night: Cloudy with rain or snow showers gradually ending. Low 29-36.

Tuesday: Any lingering showers end early, skies start to clear out late in the day. High 38-45.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 17-24.

Wednesday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds. High 35-42.

Thursday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, slight chance for a shower. High 42-49.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 37-44.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 42-49.

Sunday: More clouds than sun, much cooler. High 28-35.

Weekend Outlook: February 4-7, 2022

It’s mild today, but a messy Friday is on the way.

A strong cold is making its way toward the region this afternoon. We’ll have some rain ahead of it tonight, and the rain may be quite heavy. The combination of rain and mild temperatures will help to melt a lot of the snow that remains from last weekend’s blizzard. The front moves through this evening, and colder air will slowly make its way into the region early on Friday, first at the surface, then aloft. As temperatures drop, the rain will change to freezing rain and then sleet from north to south. With the roads already wet from the rain and temperatures dropping, a flash freeze is likely, and it will unfortunately be timed for the morning commute. If you’re going to be out in the morning, use plenty of caution, as untreated surfaces will become very icy quickly.

Much of the region will receive 1.5-2.0 inches of rain tonight and Friday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Temperatures will continue to drop during the day, with the freezing rain and sleet likely ending as some wet snow, mainly north of the Mass Pike. Everything winds down in the evening, then skies gradually clear out at night as high pressure builds in. This sets up a sunny but cold Saturday across the region. The high slides off to the east for Sunday and Monday, keeping us dry, but allowing temperatures to begin to moderate once again.

Saturday night looks quite chilly across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Rain, possibly heavy at times, changing to freezing rain and sleet late at night, mainly across southern New Hampshire and northern Massachusetts. Low 26-33 north of the Mass Pike, 34-44 south of the Pike.

Friday: Rain and freezing rain changing to sleet, and eventually some wet snow north of the Mass Pike. Temperatures dropping during the day.

Friday night: Wintry mix ending, some clearing late at night. Low 12-19.

Saturday: Becoming mostly sunny, breezy, and cold. High 19-26.

Saturday night: Clear and cold. Low -7 to 0 north and west of Boston, 1-8 south of Boston.

Sunday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 24-31.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 9-16.

Monday: Partly sunny. High 34-41.

Weekly Outlook: January 31 – February 6, 2022

After a snowy weekend, quiet weather will settle in for a few days.

The week starts off on a rather chilly note with high pressure in control, but as it slides off to the east, temperatures will moderate for the next few days. By Wednesday, many locations could top 40 degrees. This will help to melt some of the mounds of snow across the region, but remember, with temperatures dropping below freezing at night, anything that melts will ice back up.

Wednesday could be relatively mild by early February standards. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The next storm system approaches on Thursday, and it looks a bit complicated. A cold front will bring colder air back into the region and a wave of low pressure will ride along it, possibly passing south of the region. With warmer air in place to start, we will likely see precipitation start as rain, but a change to sleet and/or freezing rain is possible, especially across the interior during Thursday night and Friday. We could see a change to snow before everything winds down Friday afternoon. We’ll obviously have a better handle on this storm later this week. High pressure then builds in for the weekend with cold and dry conditions.

Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 24-31.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 4-11.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. High 30-37.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 21-28.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. High 38-45.

Thursday: Cloudy with rain developing, changing to sleet and/or freezing rain across the interior. High 39-46.

Friday: Wintry mix possibly ending as snow. Temperatures dropping into the 20s and 30s during the day.

Saturday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 18-25.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 25-32.

Storm Update: Blizzard Warnings

Saturday is not going to be a pretty day around here, but most of you already knew that. There are some changes to our forecast though. Once again, we’ll start with the basics (which really haven’t changed), then work our way into the details (which have changed a bit).

Blizzard Warnings are in effect from coastal Maine to the Delmarva Peninsula. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Low pressure will develop off the Southeast coast this afternoon and will head up the Eastern Seaboard tonight and Saturday, rapidly intensifying as it does so. The system will likely pass just south and east of Nantucket Saturday night, and pull away from the region on Sunday. A few snow showers are possible today as a cold front moves through, completely unrelated to the storm. What that front will do is bring colder air back in, so that we’ll be dealing with all snow across nearly all of the region, except possibly Nantucket and Outer Cape Cod.

OK, let’s get to the details. We’ll start with temperatures. North and west of Boston, temperatures will likely be in the teens for much of the storm, resulting in a fluffy snow. This will make cleanup easier, but also make it easier for accumulations to pile up quicker. South of Boston, temperatures will be in the 20s to start, but will drop during the day, so we’re also looking at a fluffier snow here as well. Across Cape Cod, temperatures will be closer to freezing, so it’ll be a wetter snow, with the possibility of rain mixing in, depending on how close the storm actually tracks. The general rule is that 1 inch of liquid equals about 10 inches of snow, which works fine with temperatures close to freezing. The colder you get, the higher the ratio gets. When temperatures drop into the teens, the ratio can get to 20:1, which means 1 inch of liquid results in 20 inches of snow. We’re not sure it’ll get that high, as there are other factors involved beyond the temperature at the ground, but it is certainly possible. The other thing to keep in mind is that the temperatures, combined with strong winds (see next paragraph), will result in very cold wind chills, so keep this in mind if you’re heading outside to do some shoveling during the storm.

Wind chills will be near or below zero across the region by Saturday evening. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Next, we’ll get to the winds and coastal flooding. As the storm gets cranked up south of the region, winds will pick up on Saturday. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph are likely inland, with sustained winds of 20-40 mph along the coast. Wind gusts of 40-50 mph are likely inland, but along the coast, wind gusts of 50-70 mph seem likely, with higher gusts possible, especially across Cape Cod. Some trees and power lines could come down, so be prepared for power outages, but with a fluffier snow, there might be less widespread than you’d normally expect. The winds, combined with astronomical high tides, will result in some coastal flooding, especially at northeast and north-facing coastal areas during both the morning and evening high tides on Saturday.

Wind gusts could exceed 50 mph across much of the coastal plain. Image provided by WeatherBell.

With strong winds and heavy snow (more on that in a moment), blizzard conditions are expected on Saturday. If you don’t have to go out, then don’t. Whiteout conditions will make travel nearly impossible during the afternoon and evening. The National Weather Service has issued a Blizzard Warning for most of eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, as well as the New Hampshire Seacoast and coastal Maine.

Sustained winds or frequent gusts ≥ 35 mph AND considerable falling and/or blowing snow frequently reducing visibility < ¼ for ≥ 3 hours.

Blizzard conditions need to be the predominant condition over a 3 hour period.

Official definition of a Blizzard Warning from the National Weather Service

Now to the part that you’ve all been waiting for – how much snow is going to fall? If you read our Weekend Outlook yesterday, or are a regular reader of the blog, then you know that we are normally very conservative in our snowfall forecasts – no hype here. Well, many of the forecast models continue to forecast insane snowfall totals, and most of the guys on TV are buying in. With that in mind, we are issuing an Extreme Hype Warning.

When an Extreme Hype Warning has been issued, it means you’ll see blanket coverage from the network stations around here, hourly updates even when they go to regular programming, and of course, obligatory live shots from (take your pick):

  • The side of an Interstate
  • Logan Airport
  • A local DPW salt pile
  • A beach showing the rough surf and coastal flooding
  • A Dunkin Donuts where they are talking to a plow operator
  • All of the above

You’ll also get network reports about how the snow is creating chaos in New York City, how it put Washington at a standstill (due to the 1-3 inches they’ll get), and possibly how it dumped heavy snow (a.k.a. 1 inch) on parts of the Southeast.

As for our forecast? We’re going to raise forecast amounts from what we had yesterday, but not to the levels that most of the media is forecasting. Light snow may develop by midnight along the South Coast, spreading northward over the ensuing few hours, reaching southern and central New Hampshire and southern Maine by 3-5am. Between about 10am and 7pm, it’s going to snow rather heavily. Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour will be likely in many areas. However, there will be some embedded bands of intense snowfall, with snowfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour. If you’re under one of these bands for any length of time, your totals may end up higher than our forecast, while areas outside the band a few miles away have significantly less snowfall.

OK, we’ve rambled on enough, let’s go to the actual forecast totals:

Central NH (Lebanon/Laconia): 4-8″
Southern NH/Central MA (Concord/Manchester/Nashua/Fitchburg): 10-15″
Merrimack Valley/495 Belt/NH Seacoast (Portsmouth/Haverhill/Lowell/Framingham): 15-20″
I-95 corridor (Beverly/Boston/Providence): 18-24″
Southeastern MA/Cape Cod (Brockton/Weymouth/Plymouth/Taunton/Fall River): 20-26″ with some totals in excess of 30″ possible.

The National Blend of Models continues to be closest to our thinking for snowfall totals. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Once the storm pulls away, dry and colder conditions settle in for Sunday and Monday, before temperatures start to moderate. There are some indications for a big warmup late-week and a storm that will bring in rain, but it’s still several days away, so we wouldn’t put too much stock into that just yet,

Weekend Outlook: January 28-31, 2022

We’ve certainly got an eventful weekend coming up across the region.

Another chilly night is expected as high pressure slides offshore, but clouds will start to move in, and temperatures may actually start to rise after midnight as winds shift into the south and southwest. Friday will feature plenty of clouds and somewhat milder temperatures, but an approaching cold front may produce a few snow showers during the afternoon. This brings us to the main event.

Winter Storm Watches are in effect for much of the coastal plain in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

We’ll give you the general idea first, then get into specifics in the next paragraph or four. Low pressure will move up the East Coast Friday night and Saturday. There are still some questions as to exact track and strength, but we are narrowing the possibilities. At this point, it looks like the storm will track just south and east of Nantucket, which means that this will be all snow for everyone, except possibly Nantucket and the Outer Cape. The storm should pull away before daybreak Sunday, with clearing Sunday afternoon, then high pressure builds in with sunshine and colder weather on Monday.

There is still disagreement among the models as to how close the low gets to Nantucket. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Now, let’s get to the details of the storm. As winds shift into the northeast Friday evening, the onshore flow may produce some flurries or snow showers across the region, but these won’t do much more than whiten the ground. The steady snow will spread across the region between 2 and 5am. Between about 10am and 10pm, we’ll have snow falling moderate to heavy at times, especially near the coast and south of Boston. There will be some embedded bands of intense snowfall, falling at the rate of 1-3 inches an hour, but picking out where those will develop is a fool’s errand at this point. The snow should taper off in the evening, and end from west to east between 3 and 6am Sunday. We’ll detail the amounts in a bit, as snow is not the only concern with this system.

As the storm rapidly intensifies, winds will ramp up, with sustained winds of 15-25 mph inland, and 20-40 mph along the coast and south of Boston. Wind gusts in excess of 50-60 mph are possible, especially across Cape Cod and the Islands. This will result in significant blowing and drifting snow, with blizzard conditions possible. It also will increase the threat for power outages, with trees and power lines coming down. The winds, combined with astronomical high tides (Tuesday is the New Moon), will result in coastal flooding, possibly moderate to major coastal flooding, especially at east and northeast-facing coastlines.

Wind gusts of 40-50 mph are likely across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Another factor will be temperatures. We mentioned that this will be all snow for nearly all of the region, but it’s looking like it’ll be a fluffy snow for many of us. This is both good and bad. It’s good, because it makes it a lot easier to clean up, but bad, because it allows the snow to pile up even faster. The reason it will be a fluffy snow is because it’s going to be quite chilly. Areas north and west of Boston may stay in the teens all day Saturday, with 20s from Boston southward. Add in the strong winds, and you’re looking at wind chills in the single numbers and below zero. Keep that in mind if you’re going to try and clean up the driveway a few times during the storm.

OK, we’ve gone over the timing, the winds, the coastal flooding, the temperatures, did we miss anything? Oh yeah, how much to expect. You’ve probably seen or heard that there are many models forecasting some outrageous amounts of snow. Well, as is usually the case, you won’t find that here. Oh, we’re still expecting a rather potent storm, but if you really expect widespread 2-3 feet, then we’re going to disappoint you. Since we’re still 36 hours from the start of the storm, this could still change, and we’ll likely issue another blog post tomorrow, but here’s our current thinking:

Central NH (Lebanon/Concord): 2-6″
Southern NH/Central MA (Manchester/Nashua/Fitchburg): 5-10″
Merrimack Valley/495 Belt/NH Seacoast (Portsmouth/Haverhill/Lowell/Framingham): 8-12″
I-95 corridor (Beverly/Boston/Providence): 10-15″
Southeastern MA/Cape Cod (Brockton/Plymouth/Taunton/Fall River): 12-18″ with some totals in excess of 20″ possible.

The National Blend of Models is fairly close to our thoughts in terms of snowfall. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Thursday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 15-22, but temperatures may start to rise after midnight.

Friday: Cloudy with a chance of snow showers. High 30-37.

Friday night: Snow showers becoming a steady light snow, becoming breezy. Low 18-25 north and west of Boston, 26-33 south.

Saturday: Windy with snow, heavy at times. Temperatures will hold steady or drop during the day.

Saturday night: Snow tapers off, ending before daybreak, winds gradually diminish. Low 3-10.

Sunday: Gradual clearing, still breezy. High 19-26.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 2-9.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 25-32.