The tropics in the Pacific and Atlantic can be described using the titles of two of Shakespeare’s plays – “The Tempest” for the Eastern Pacific Ocean, and “Much Ado About Nothing” for the Atlantic Ocean.
Hurricane Hilary has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm as it continues northward very close to the coast of the Baja California peninsula. As of 11am EDT, Hilary was centered about 220 miles south-southeast of San Diego, moving toward the north-northwest at 25 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph. Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for northern portions of the Baja California peninsula, as well as the southern California coast from the Mexican border northward to Point Mugu, including Catalina Island.
Hilary is expected to continue weakening today as it passes very close to the Baja coastline and into southern California. Despite the hype over the past few days, Hilary will probably not make landfall in southern California, but instead across extreme northwestern Mexico, with the center moving into southern California farther inland, but still as a tropical storm. Hilary will produce gusty winds and storm surge along the coast, with a few tornadoes possible across parts of the Southwest, but heavy rain and the resultant flooding are the most significant threat with this storm. Rainfall totals of 3-6 inches are likely across many locations in southern California and Nevada, with some totals in excess of 10 inches possible. In some of the desert locations, including Death Valley, this is more rain than they normally receive in an entire year. Widespread flooding is likely, including the San Diego, Los Angeles, and Las Vegas metropolitan areas. As Hilary continues to push northward and weakens, heavy rain will spread across the Great Basin, and Inland Northwest, with rainfall totals of 1-3 inches possible, likely producing some flooding in these areas as well.
In the Atlantic, Saharan Dust has suppressed activity for the past few weeks, but now that it has moved out, there are several areas of interest, including a pair of storms.
Tropical Storm Emily has developed about 1000 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving toward the west-northwest at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph. Emily is expected to continue toward the west-northwest for the next day or two, but conditions will become increasingly hostile, with wind shear increasing over the next few days, which will basically rip the system apart. This will result in steady weakening of Emily, with it likely become extratropical on Monday or Tuesday. After that it will turn toward the northwest and north, heading out into the open waters of the Atlantic, without impacting any land areas.
Tropical Depression Six is barely hanging on as an organized system about 625 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Top winds are near 35 mph, and it is moving toward the west at 12 mph. Wind shear is ripping this system apart, and it is expected to dissipate over open water later today or tonight. At least the Hurricane Center didn’t waste a name on this piece of junk.
Another area of low pressure is moving across the southeastern Caribbean Sea this afternoon, producing numerous showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Caribbean. It should continue toward the west-northwest for the next day or two, and conditions are favorable for it to continue to develop. Reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to investigate this system during the afternoon to check on the structure and strength of the system. It will continue to produce heavy rain and gusty winds across the northern and eastern Caribbean for the next few days, but it should turn more toward the north early this week, which will increase the threat to some of the islands, depending on when the turn occurs. Right now, it looks like Hispaniola will have the biggest threat, but this is predicated on when (or if) that turn occurs. It should eventually move north of the islands, possibly near the Turks and Caicos Islands, before heading out into the Atlantic. Once into the open waters of the Atlantic, it could become a potent storm system, but again, this is dependent on what it does in the next few days first.
An area of low pressure that brought heavy rain and thunderstorms to the Bahamas and southern Florida has moved into the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. It is expected to continue westward across the Gulf over the next few days, with some development possible. It could become a tropical depression toward midweek before approaching the Texas coastline. Whether it develops or not, it should bring some much-needed heavy rain to parts of central and southern Texas later this week, helping to not only put a dent in the ongoing drought in the region, but also provide some relief from the heat. Of course, places like Dallas and Austin, where temperatures will be in the 100-110 range for the next few days won’t get any relief.
Yet another tropical wave has moved off the African coast and into the eastern Atlantic. Conditions will be favorable for development over the next several days, and it could become a tropical depression later this week. If it does actually develop, it is expected to remain over open water, with no impact to land areas through at least next weekend.
Storm HQ 