Despite last week’s heavy rain, we’re still in a drought for much of the region and really need more rain. Well, we are going to get some today.
A cold front will produce showers and thunderstorms this morning as it moves through. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com
A strong cold front will cross the region this morning. Ahead of this front we can expect some heavy rain, maybe a rumble of thunder, and some gusty winds. While this could have some impacts on the morning commute, it will be short-lived, as the rain should end with the front moving offshore by early afternoon. Gusty west winds behind the front will send temperatures downward through the afternoon. We’ll clear out at night as high pressure builds in, giving us some sunshine on Tuesday, but clouds will quickly return Tuesday night ahead of another cold front. This one will produce more showers Wednesday morning, but it will also move through fairly quickly, with skies starting to clear out in the afternoon. High pressure then builds in with cooler weather for the end of the week, but with an upper-level low moving in, we’ll see some clouds each day, and possibly a few showers at times. The upper-level low lifts out over the weekend as high pressure moves overhead with dry and cool conditions.
Temperatures will be below normal for the end of the week and the weekend. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Monday: Rain likely during the morning, possibly heavy at times, ending from west to east by early afternoon, skies start to clear out late in the day, breezy, especially during the morning and early afternoon. High 60-67 in the morning, temperatures start falling in the afternoon.
Monday night: Becoming partly cloudy to clear with diminishing winds. Low 44-51.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, some clouds start to move back in late in the day. High 58-65.
Tuesday night: Becoming mostly cloudy with showers developing before daybreak. Low 47-54, temperatures may rise a little overnight.
Wednesday: Showers likely during the morning, ending by early afternoon, followed by clearing late in the day, breezy. High 60-67.
Wednesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 40-47.
Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, a sprinkle is possible, breezy, cooler. High 54-61.
Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 37-44.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a shower. High 52-59.
Some nice weather is on the way for most of the weekend, but more rain is in our future.
Low pressure south of Nova Scotia continues to send clouds into eastern New England. loop provided by College of DuPage.
Our stubborn ocean storm will finally lose its influence on the region tonight with winds diminishing as high pressure builds in from the west. There might still be a few showers across parts of Cape Cod, but otherwise it will remain dry with skies becoming clear across the area. As the high slowly crosses the region we’ll have sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures on Friday. By Saturday, we’ll see temperatures start to moderate, but also some clouds starting to move in ahead of a low pressure area moving into the Great Lakes. Sunday looks like the pick of the weekend with some sunshine in the morning, but clouds start to increase and thicken up during the afternoon. Increasing southwest winds will send temperatures well into the 60s with some spots possibly topping 70. As the front continues to advance eastward, we’ll see some showers developing late Sunday night, likely continuing for a good chunk of Monday until the front pushes offshore.
Monday’s rainfall will be helpful, but we need a lot more to break the drought. Image provided by weathermodels.com
Thursday night: Plenty of clouds with a few showers across Cape Cod, becoming clear elsewhere, breezy along the coast. Low 37-44, milder across Cape Cod.
Friday: Clearing across Cape Cod, plenty of sunshine elsewhere. High 55-62.
Friday night: Clear skies. Low 36-43, milder across Cape Cod.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with some afternoon high clouds. High 57-64.
Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Low 41-48.
Sunday: Some morning sun, then increasing and thickening clouds, breezy and milder. High 62-69.
Sunday night: Cloudy with showers developing. Low 50-57.
Monday: Periods of rain and showers, breezy. High 58-65.
Some slow improvement is expected as the week goes on, but the start of the week will be rather nasty.
Low pressure will remain off the East Coast for much of the week. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
Low pressure continues to meander around off the Mid-Atlantic coast today, with more rain, some of it heavy, strong winds, especially near the coast, and coastal flooding around the time of high tide, especially along east and northeast-facing coastlines. The low will start to drift eastward on Tuesday, with rain tapering off to showers and eventually ending, and winds slowly dying down, but it still won’t be a great day. By Wednesday the system will be south of Nova Scotia, but an upper-level low will move into the Northeast, keeping the clouds and cool temperatures around, with a few showers or some drizzle possible, especially near the coast, as north to northeast winds will remain gusty off the Atlantic. Thursday won’t be that much different than Wednesday as the upper low only slowly moves eastward.
Much of the region will pick up another 1-2″ (or more) of much needed rain before it ends. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
We finally start to see some improvement by Friday as high pressure continues to build in at the surface, but also aloft. Saturday looks to be the pick of the week with sunshine and milder temperatures with high pressure in control. Sunday will be a warmer day, but we won’t see as much sunshine. Low pressure moving into the Great Lakes will send some clouds into the region. Whether we see any showers before the end of the day is still a question mark, but for now, it looks like most of the day should remain dry.
Temperatures could approach or exceed 70 on Sunday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Monday: Windy with rain, heavy at times. High 51-58, a little milder across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod.
Monday night: Breezy, rain tapers off to showers. Low 46-53, a little milder across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod.
Tuesday: Cloudy and breezy with more showers, tapering off during the afternoon from west to east. High 55-62.
Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers ending in the evening in eastern areas, winds diminish. Low 45-52.
Wednesday: More clouds than sun, breezy, chance for a few showers or drizzle near the coast. High 58-65.
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy, breezy, a few showers are drizzle along the coast. Low 37-44.
Thursday: Intervals of clouds and sun, breezy, another shower or some drizzle possible near the coast. High 51-58.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy, breezy. Low 36-43.
Friday: Mostly sunny, breezy in the morning. High 55-62.
Saturday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 58-65.
Sunday: Partly sunny, showers possible late in the day. High 64-71.
We’ve had warm and dry weather for much of the past few months, but that is going to change this weekend.
Freeze Warnings (dark blue) and Frost Advisories (light blue) are in effect for much of the Northeast. Image provided by the National Weather Service.
A large area of high pressure will settle across the region tonight, bringing us clear skies and light winds – the ideal setup for radiational cooling. As a result, we’re looking at the coolest night so far this fall, with widespread frost away from the coast and urban areas, with a freeze expected in the normally colder locations. Friday will feature plenty of sunshine, but we’ll remain on the cool side. As the high starts to slide off to the south and east, winds will shift into the southwest Friday night, so we won’t be as chilly as tonight. Saturday should be a milder day, but we’ll see clouds starting to move in as moisture streams northward from a low pressure area developing off the Carolina coast. That system will drift northward Sunday and Monday, but won’t get this far north, though it will still have a significant impact on the region.
A developing low pressure will impact much of the East Coast this weekend. Loop provided by WeatherBell.
We’ll see rain spreading northward from the system, likely moving in from south to north Sunday afternoon and evening. How far north the rain gets is still a bit of a question mark, but it looks like most of the region should receive some much-needed rainfall. How much rainfall is also a question, but at this point it looks like the heaviest rain will be near the South Coast and also east-facing coastal areas, which some spots could see 1-2 inches of rain, possibly more, before everything starts to wind down on Tuesday.
Some models show the potential for very heavy rainfall with this system. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Rain isn’t the only impact from this system though. The pressure gradient between the developing low to the south and high pressure to the north will result in gusty east to northeast winds, especially near the coast, where some gusts in excess of 40 mph are possible, especially later Sunday into Monday. In addition, with tides still near the astronomical high for the month, persistent onshore gusty winds will result in some areas of coastal flooding, especially along east and northeast facing locations. Oh, and the combination of cloudcover, rainfall, and winds, will keep temperatures on the cool side again, especially on Monday.
Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are possible, especially near the coast, Sunday night and Monday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Thursday night: Clear and chilly. Low 29-36, milder along the coast and in urban areas.
Friday: Plenty of sunshine. High 56-63.
Friday night: Clear during the evening, some clouds start to filter in from south to north after midnight. Low 38-45, a little milder along the coast and in urban areas.
Saturday: Partly sunny, clouds start to thicken up late in the day. High 60-67.
Saturday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 44-51.
Sunday: Cloudy and becoming windy with rain developing from south to north. High 57-64.
Sunday night: Cloudy and windy with rain likely, possibly heavy at times. Low 48-55.
Monday: Cloudy and windy with more rain, possibly heavy at times. High 54-61, a little milder near the South Coast and Cape Cod.
It’s going to feel like summer for a few more days, but you’ll be trading the flip-flops for sweatshirts later this week.
Temperatures should reach the lower to middle 80s this afternoon well away from the South Coast. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
High pressure remains on control to start the week with more sunshine and unseasonably warm temperatures. Many locations away from the South Coast will top 80 again today, with a seabreeze keeping the South Coast and Cape Cod in the 70s. Tuesday looks like another warm day with gusty southwest winds, but clouds will be on the increase ahead of an approaching cold front. That front will bring in some much-needed rain late Tuesday night into Wednesday, with temperatures getting back closer to normal for early October thanks to the cloudcover and rain. The front settles offshore later Wednesday and high pressure starts to build back in. Much cooler air moves in for Thursday, with many spots likely staying in the 50s all day.
Temperatures Thursday morning will be 15-20 degrees cooler than Wednesday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.
We’ll stay on the cooler side for Friday and Saturday, but temperatures will be a little closer to normal, as winds shift back into the southwest with the high sliding offshore. Sunday is a bit of a question mark at this point. A low pressure area will be developing off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Some models try and bring it northward, bringing in some additional much-needed rain, while other models have it stay off to the south with the high to the north blocking it. We’re going to lean toward the latter scenario for now (“When in drought, leave it out”), but this is something we’ll be keeping an eye on as the week progresses.
Will Sunday be wet or dry? It’s too early to tell. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Patchy morning fog, otherwise plenty of sunshine with a few afternoon clouds. High 79-86, except 71-78 across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy with a little patchy fog again. Low 53-60.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, increasing and thickening clouds in the afternoon, breezy. High 74-81, a little cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy, showers developing after midnight. Low 57-64.
Wednesday: Rain likely during the morning, tapering off from northwest to southeast during the afternoon, some clearing late in the day, especially north and west of Boston, breezy. High 63-70 in the morning, temperatures start dropping in the afternoon.
Wednesday night: Becoming clear. Low 38-45, a little milder across Cape Cod.
Thursday: Lots of sunshine. High 54-61.
Thursday night: Clear skies. Low 33-40, a little milder in urban areas and across Cape Cod.
Friday: Mostly sunny. High 57-64.
Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 60-67.
Sunday: More clouds than sun with a chance for showers, especially late in the day, becoming breezy. High 58-65.
We’ve got some absolutely glorious weather coming up for the weekend.
It’s been very dry across the region over the past 3 months, and that won’t change this weekend. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.
A large area of high pressure will sink southward over the next few days. With it right overhead tonight, we’ll have clear skies and light winds – the recipe for radiational cooling. It will be quite chilly tonight, with lows mainly in the 40s with upper 30s in the cold spots. A few patches of frost are possible in spots as well. After that, as the high continues to move southward we’ll see winds shift into the west and southwest, bringing warmer air in for the entire weekend with plenty of sunshine each day. Coastal areas may still a little cooler with afternoon seabreezes, but inland temperatures could top 80 during Saturday, Sunday and Monday.
Temperatures will be well above normal this weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy and chilly. Low 39-46.
Quieter weather is on the way for the weekend around here, but the Atlantic is anything but quiet right now.
There are two active storms in the Atlantic, and a third one could form soon. Loop provided by NOAA.
A cold front will push offshore tonight, with the much-needed rain finally coming to an end. However, that front is going to stall out south of New England, so skies will only slowly start to clear out on Friday as high pressure builds in. Saturday looks to be a pretty nice day with sunshine and mild temperatures, however, another wave riding along that stalled out front will send some clouds back in by late in the day. While most of the rain associated with that wave will stay offshore, there is the chance that some showers could reach the South Coast Saturday night and early Sunday. As that wave starts to pull away on Sunday skies will only slowly clear out. High pressure returns on Monday with more sunshine and mild temperatures.
Most of the models keep the rain near or off the South Coast Saturday night and early Sunday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Meanwhile, in the Atlantic, we have two named storms and a third that likely will be named in the next few days. We’ll start with Hurricane Gabrielle, which still has maximum sustained winds near 75 mph. It is centered about 385 miles west of the Azores, moving toward the east at 31 mph. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Azores at this time. Gabrielle will cross the Azores tonight and early Friday, then will likely become extratropical and weaken over cooler waters as it approaches the coast of Portugal this weekend.
Radar from the Azores shows Hurricane Gabrielle approaching the islands. Loop provided by Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School.
A little closer to home is Tropical Storm Humberto, which now has maximum sustained winds near 50 mph. It is centered about 465 miles east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving toward the northwest at 8 mph. Humberto is expected to strengthen into a hurricane on Friday, and could become a pretty potent storm this weekend as it passes well north of the Greater Antilles. The current forecast shows that it should turn more toward the northwest and eventually north as it reaches the western edge of a ridge of high pressure, passing west of Bermuda early next week. However, Humberto’s future isn’t quite that simple. We’ll get into that a bit more later.
Forecast track for Tropical Storm Humberto. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
The more immediate concern is with a tropical wave crossing Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos this afternoon. This system has been producing squally conditions across the northeastern Caribbean for the past day or two, and will continue to do so as it moves northwestward over the next few days. The system could consolidate into an area of low pressure tonight or Friday as it moves into the Bahamas. The storm may become a tropical depression or tropical storm this weekend, and if it does, it would be named Imelda. The future of this system is a lot murkier than the others. It will be traversing the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and upper-level conditions should be favorable, so the system could intensify pretty rapidly, but where it goes is still a giant question mark. Forecast models always struggle with systems that haven’t developed yet, and they already have a wide range of solutions for this system. Complicating that is the fact the Humberto will not be that far away, and there is the potential for the storms to interact with each other. This could alter the tracks of both storms,, making for even higher uncertainty that usual.
There is a considerable amount of uncertainty where the system goes once it gets past the Bahamas. Image provided by Polar Wx.
While the track will obviously dictate what effects this system would have on land, there are bigger concerns. A frontal system will stall out near the region, bringing some heavy rain into parts of the Mid-Atlantic states and the Carolinas. With this system likely to be at least nearby for a couple of days to start the week, there is the potential for some very heavy rain across parts of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states. In fact, some models show the potential for as much as 5-10 inches (or more) of rain over the next week. While the region has been in a drought, that much rain at once will likely lead to widespread significant flooding. Parts of this region experienced devastating flooding just one year ago from Hurricane Helene, and still have not recovered. This would be a significant setback to those recovery efforts.
Most of the models show some significant rainfall for the Carolinas over the next week. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Friday: Morning clouds give way to some afternoon sunshine. High 74-81.
Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 55-62.
Saturday: Morning sun, then clouds return in the afternoon. High 71-78, coolest along the coast.
Saturday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers, mainly near the South Coast. Low 55-62.
Sunday: Any linger showers near the South Coast end early, otherwise plenty of clouds with some afternoon sun developing, especially north of the Mass Pike. High 73-80.
Summer officially ends at the Autumnal Equinox at 2:19 this afternoon, but summer-like weather will continue beyond that.
Astronomical Fall begins with the Autumnal Equinox at 2:19pm today. Image provided by EarthSky.org
High pressure remains in control for today and part of Tuesday, keeping us dry, as has been the case for much of the summer. After a cool weekend, temperatures will start to moderate a bit today, but Tuesday will be rather warm and somewhat humid, with many locations likely topping 80. Clouds will start to move in during the day as a frontal system approaches the region. This will bring in some showers and possibly some thunderstorms late in the day and at night. As the front slows down, a wave of low pressure will ride along it on Wednesday, bringing in some additional showers along with much cooler temperatures. We do need the rain, and some models show the potential for some very beneficial amounts. However, for the most part, they have overestimated rainfall with several recent systems, plus there’s an old adage that usually holds true when talking about rainfall forecasts during a drought – “When in Drought, Leave it Out”. So, even though Wednesday will be a cool and damp day, it’s likely not going to be the widespread heavy rain that we need.
Temperatures could top 80 in many areas on Tuesday. Image provided by weathermodels.com.
High pressure builds in for Wednesday night and early Thursday with some drier air, but it won’t last long. An upper-level low pressure system and its surface reflection over the Great Lakes will start to slowly move into southeastern Canada toward the end of the week. The models are all over the place with the timing and strength of this system, but it looks like a second period of rainfall is expected possibly starting as early as Thursday afternoon, continuing into Friday night or possibly Saturday. Temperatures on Friday could be tricky. Several models show the system sending a warm front across the region, so even though we’re expecting more showers, temperatures could get well into the 70s. Of course, if the front gets hung up south of New England, temperatures may stay stuck in the 60s. We’re leaning towards the warmer scenario for now, but it is far from a lock. The system pulls away on Saturday then high pressure builds back in with drier air for Sunday.
Many models show the potential for a decent amount of rain between our two systems this week. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 68-75.
Monday night: Clear skies during the evening, becoming partly cloudy overnight. Low 54-61.
Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds through midday, then clouds thicken up in the afternoon with some late-day showers and thunderstorms develop. High 76-83.
Tuesday night: Cloudy with showers likely. Low 58-65.
Wednesday: Cloudy and cooler with more showers. High 66-73.
Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy, showers ending in the evening. Low 54-61.
Thursday: More clouds than sun, showers may redevelop in the afternoon. High 64-71.
Thursday night: Cloudy with showers likely. Low 55-62.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with additional showers, mainly in the morning. High 70-77.
Saturday: Morning clouds and a few showers across the Cape and Islands give way to some afternoon sunshine. High 70-77.
Astronomical Summer ends on Monday, and the final weekend of summer will feature quiet but cooler weather.
Drought conditions continue to worsen across the region. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.
Skies clear out tonight as low pressure pulls away from the region, setting us up for a rather nice day on Friday. A cold front will cross the region with just a few clouds accompanying it, but ahead of it temperatures will get well into the 70s, with 80s in some spots. High pressure builds in with much cooler conditions for Friday night and Saturday. Saturday night will be rather chilly, with some of the normally colder spots dropping into the 30s. As the high slides off to the east temperatures will slowly moderate for Sunday and Monday with sunshine continuing. Summer officially ends and Fall begins on Monday at 2:19pm with the Autumnal Equinox.
Sunday morning could be on the chilly side. Image provided by weathermodels.com
Thursday night: Clear skies. Low 55-62.
Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 72-79.
Friday night: Clear and cooler. Low 44-51, milder in urban areas and right along the coast.
Saturday: Plenty of sunshine. High 63-70.
Saturday night: Clear and chilly. Low 40-47, milder in urban areas and right along the coast
We’re not going to get much, if any, relief for the drought this week across the majority of the region, but temperatures should remain comfortable.
Over the past 90 days, rainfall totals across the region are roughly 2-5 inches below average normal. Image provided by WeatherBell.
We start the week off with high pressure in control, giving us a couple of dry and warm days for Monday and Tuesday, with a seabreeze keeping coastal areas a little cooler, especially today. Wednesday and Thursday are the days with the most uncertainty at this point. We’ll still have high pressure to the north, but a low pressure area will be passing offshore. This will send in some clouds, but similar to last week’s system the question is how far north the rain shield will get. Some models keep it all offshore, several bring it up to the South Coast, some bring in farther inland. Given then the models overestimated how far inland it would get with the system last week, we’re inclined to think that the rain probably won’t get much farther inland than the South Coast, with most of it falling Wednesday night into early Thursday. The system pulls away later Thursday, then a cold front drops down from the north on Friday. The models show most of the rain with the front drying up before it gets here, so the front should move through with little fanfare on Friday. Behind it, high pressure returns with much cooler air on Saturday, though temperatures should start to moderate a bit on Sunday.
Most of the models keep what little rain we’re expecting close to the South Coast late Wednesday into Thursday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Areas of morning fog, otherwise partly to mostly sunny. High 71-78, a little cooler along the coast.
Monday night: Partly cloudy, areas of fog developing. Low 50-57.
Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 70-77, a little cooler along the coast.
Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 50-57.
Wednesday: More clouds than sun, chance for a few showers, mainly near the South Coast. High 69-76.
Wednesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers near the South Coast. Low 54-61.
Thursday: Morning clouds, maybe a shower near the South Coast, becoming mostly sunny during the afternoon. High 75-82, a little cooler across Cape Cod.
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