Heat and humidity return for the first half of the week, but the latter half will tell a different story.
Heat Advisories are in effect for the first half of the week. Image provided by the National Weather Service office in Norton, MA.
We start the week off with high pressure moving offshore, resulting in hot and humid conditions into Wednesday. Tuesday looks the be the hottest day of this stretch, with temperatures well into the 90s, and only a stray shower or thunderstorm providing minimal relief. Wednesday could also be quite hot, but we’ll have a cold front moving in, with clouds and a few showers and thunderstorms ahead of it during the afternoon. The front moves through and then stalls out near or just off the South Coast, which is where things get tricky.
It will feel like it is near or over 100 degrees Tuesday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.
A wave of low pressure will ride along that front, bringing some rain and cooler air into the region. What’s uncertain is where the front stalls out, and the timing of the wave. For now, it looks like the bulk of the rain will be South of the Mass Pike, but that is highly uncertain. The rain could get all the way into southern New Hampshire, or it could be confined to the South Coast. This will be dependent om where the front actually is. How much rain will be dependent on how strong the wave is. Some models have light to moderate rain in spots, some show the potential for some hefty amounts. The other question is the timing. Some models show most of the rain Thursday and Thursday night, some have the heavier rain Thursday night into Friday, some even have it linger into Friday night. What you’ll see below is our best estimate on all these variables at this time, but it is obviously very low confidence. Behind the system high pressure builds in with cooler and drier weather for the weekend.
There’s a lot of uncertainty with the rainfall potential for the end of the week. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Patchy morning fog, otherwise mostly sunny, hot, and humid. High 85-92, cooler along the coast.
Monday night: Clear skies, a little patchy fog again. Low 65-72.
Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds, slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 90-97, cooler across Cape Cod.
Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 66-73.
Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for some late-day showers and thunderstorms. High 88-95, cooler across Cape Cod.
Wednesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers and thunderstorms possible. Low 65-72.
Thursday: More clouds than sun with showers and thunderstorms likely. High 75-82.
Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with more showers and thunderstorms. Low 58-65.
Friday: Showers and thunderstorms ending, becoming partly sunny. High 70-77.
Lots of changes coming up this weekend, but the humidity will probably hang around.
It will feel like it is near or over 100 degrees Friday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.
High pressure settles offshore, keeping us on the warm and humid side. In fact, Friday will be downright hot with many places away from the South Coast getting into the 90s. When you factor the humidity it, it may feel like it is close to or a little over 100 in the afternoon. However, we’ll also see clouds moving in ahead of a cold front. That front will trigger some showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. We’re not expecting widespread severe weather, but some of the storms could produce gusty winds and heavy downpours. The front settles offshore before stalling out, with somewhat cooler and drier air moving in for Saturday. By somewhat, we mean temperatures in the 80s instead of 90s, and dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s instead of upper 60s and lower 70s. So, it’ll be a typical summer day across the region. Sunday may not be as nice. A wave of low pressure will ride along the front and bring the humidity back in, along with the possibility some showers and thunderstorms, mostly during the afternoon and evening. However, some models keep the showers offshore, so we may end up with a decent day. High pressure returns for Monday with sunshine, warmer temperatures, and moderate humidity levels.
Will Sunday be wet or dry? It depends on which model you trust. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Clear skies. Low 66-73.
Friday: Some morning sun, then clouds move in with some showers and thunderstorms likely during the afternoon. High 88-95, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Friday night: Showers and thunderstorms ending in the evening, becoming clear to partly cloudy after midnight. Low 63-70.
Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 80-87, a little cooler near the coast.
Saturday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 60-67.
Sunday: More clouds than sunshine, showers and thunderstorms may develop in the afternoon. High 75-82.
Sunday night: Cloudy with any showers and thunderstorms ending during the evening, becoming partly cloudy late at night. Low 62-69.
Monday: Becoming mostly sunny. High 84-91, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Quiet weather will dominate much of the upcoming work week.
It could get rather chilly tonight in some areas. Image provided by weathermodels.com
High pressure builds in for Monday and Tuesday with sunshine, low humidity and temperatures that are a little below normal for late July. Highs will only be in the 70s and lower 80s both days. With clear skies and diminishing winds tonight we could have ideal conditions for radiational cooling, resulting in low temperatures dropping into the 50s, with some 40s in the normally colder locations. As the high slides offshore on Wednesday temperatures will start to moderate, but the heat and humidity will really make a comeback for Thursday, and especially on Friday. Temperatures will get well into the 90s on Friday, but when the humidity is factored in it will feel like it is over 100 degrees in the afternoon. An approaching cold front may trigger some showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon, but it looks like the front will stall out nearby and remain there for the weekend. That means it will remain humid with a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will likely stay quite warm, but how hot it gets each day will depend on the amount of sunshine we see.
The heat index will be near or over 100 Friday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell,
Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy. High 73-80.
Monday night: Clear and cool. Low 51-58, a little warmer across Cape Cod.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 72-79.
Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 51-59.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 78-85.
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 62-69.
Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, more humid. High 86-93, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 67-74.
Friday: Sunshine with afternoon clouds, showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day, humid. High 91-98, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Saturday: Partly sunny, chance for late-day showers and thunderstorms. High 83-90.
Sunday: Partly sunny, a few late-day showers and thunderstorms possible. High 79-86.
Cooler and drier weather is on the way, but there’s also more rain coming.
A cold front will bring in some showers and thunderstorms later today. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com
High pressure remains in control with hot and humid conditions lingering again today, but changes are on the way. A cold front will move in this evening, with some showers and thunderstorms likely ahead of it. While widespread severe weather is not expected, a few storms could produce strong winds, hail, and heavy downpours that could lead to flash flooding, especially across the interior. The front moves through at night, then drier air moves in for both Friday and Saturday as high pressure builds back in. Temperatures will be in the 70s and lower 80s, with dewpoints dropping into the 50s and lower 60s, making for a much more comfortable airmass. Unfortunately, it won’t last too long. By Saturday night, we’ll see clouds moving back in ahead of the next system, with humidity levels creeping back up. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will accompany this system, but for now, the day doesn’t look like a complete washout, with most of the activity likely coming during the morning. High pressure returns for later Sunday and Monday with cooler and drier air once again.
Dewpoints will drop into the 50s on Monday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Thursday: Partly sunny, breezy, a few showers and thunderstorms likely late in the day. High 85-92.
Thursday night: Any showers or thunderstorms end in the evening, becoming clear to partly cloudy. Low 65-72.
Friday: Mostly sunny, less humid. High 77-84.
Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 55-62.
Saturday: Sunshine gives way to increasing high clouds. High 79-86.
Saturday night: Becoming mostly cloudy, showers and thunderstorms develop after midnight. Low 64-71.
Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms likely in the morning, becoming partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 77-84.
We’ve got a fairly complicated forecast for the final days of Spring and initial days of Summer.
The heat index will reach the middle to upper 90s across much of the region on Thursday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
A warm and humid airmass has settled into the region, and it will be here into Thursday. We’ll have plenty of clouds through the evening with a few showers and possibly a rumble of thunder as a weak disturbance moves across the region. These showers should end before midnight, then we’ll see some fog developing. Once the fog burns off Thursday morning a hot and humid day is expected under partly to mostly sunny skies. Gusty southwest winds will help send temperatures into the upper 80s and lower 90s in much of the region, except along the South Coast and Cape Cod, where winds off the water will keep temperatures a little cooler. Dewpoints well get into the 60s and lower 70s, resulting in the heat index reaching the middle to upper 90s in many areas. A Heat Advisory has been issued for parts of the region as a result.
Severe weather is possible in the Northeast Thursday with damaging winds the greatest threat. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
A cold front will move across the region late in the day, triggering some showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening. A few of these storms may produce strong winds, heavy downpours and some hail, but it looks like the best chance for severe storms will be off to our west. If the front were to move in a little faster than we currently expect, the odds for severe weather would rise, since it would be arriving around the time of maximum heating. Behind the front, drier air settles in for Friday, and while it won’t be as hot, it will still be quite warm. As we get to Saturday, it looks like we will finally break our streak of wet Saturdays with sunshine, mild temperatures, and lower humidity, but that doesn’t mean the entire weekend will be dry.
A cluster of thunderstorms could rumble across the region before daybreak Sunday, Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
Forecast models have been showing the potential for a cluster of potent thunderstorms to develop across the Northern Plains Friday evening which would then race across the Northern Great Lakes on Saturday before diving into New England after midnight Saturday night. While they should be weakening by the time they get here, don’t be surprised if you’re awakened early Sunday morning by frequent lightning and some heavy downpours. Once those storms move offshore, skies will become partly to mostly sunny again with another dry and warm day expected. Things change again by Monday. A ridge of high pressure will start to build in, resulting in heat and humidity returning on Monday, and possibly for at least a few more days beyond that heading into next week. We’ll have more on that in our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning.
The first half of next week could be quite toasty around here. Image provided by weathermodels.com
Wednesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers during the evening, areas of fog develop overnight, muggy. Low 61-68.
Thursday: Becoming mostly sunny, hot, and humid, showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day, breezy. High 87-94, cooler along the South Coast and across Cape Cod.
Thursday night: Showers and thunderstorms expected during the evening, clearing overnight, breezy. Low 61-68.
Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds, not as humid, still breezy. High 76-83.
Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 58-65.
Saturday: Sunshine with some afternoon clouds. High 80-87, cooler across Cape Cod.
Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers and thunderstorms possible after midnight. Low 61-68.
Sunday: Showers and storms end early, then a mix of sun and clouds. High 81-88, cooler across Cape Cod.
Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 63-70.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny, hot, and humid. High 87-94, cooler along the South Coast and across Cape Cod.
Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on Sunday June 1 and runs through November 30, and indications are that it shouldn’t be as active as last year.
List of names for storms that form during the 2025 Hurricane Season. Image provided by NOAA.
The 2024 season was an above normal season by the numbers, with 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. The season got off to a slower start than recent years, with only 3 storms through the beginning of August, and 5 through Labor Day, but 8 named storms formed in a 4 week span between September 9 and October 5. Hurricane Helene made the most headlines, hitting the Big Bend region of Florida area as a Category 4 hurricane on September 27, producing catastrophic wind damage and flooding in parts of the Carolinas. Hurricane Milton was the strongest storm of the season, reaching Category 5 intensity. The estimated minimum pressure in the storm of 895mb tied it with 2005’s Hurricane Rita for the 4th lowest pressure in the Atlantic Basin. Milton made landfall near Siesta Key, Florida on October 9 as a Category 3 hurricane. The other storms to make landfall in the US were Hurricane Beryl in central Texas on July 8, Hurricane Debby which hit the Florida Big Bend on August 5, and Hurricane Francine, which hit Louisiana on September 11. The 5 US hurricane landfalls is the most since 2020, when 6 hurricanes struck the United States. That year also featured 2 major hurricane landfalls, just like 2024. In 2021, a total of 8 tropical systems made landfall in the United States, but only 2 at hurricane strength. That includes 2 tropical storms that made landfall in New England that summer – Elsa and Henri. Both Elsa and Henri each made landfall near Westerly, Rhode Island about 6 weeks apart. This was just the 5th time since 1851 that two tropical systems made landfall in Southern New England or Long Island in the same year, and only the 2nd time (1961 being the other), that both storms were only tropical storm strength. (We’ll have more info on New England tropical systems a little later in this post).
2024 was another active hurricane season. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Forecasts for the upcoming season are calling for a season that features near to above normal activity, though conditions are not nearly as favorable as they were at this time last year. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are considerably cooler, especially in the Main Development Region. In terms of ENSO, last year’s La Nina has faded and we are now in a neutral phase, which is not as favorable for storm development. NOAA issued their seasonal hurricane outlook on May 22, and it calls for a 60 percent chance for an above normal season, a 30 percent chance for a near normal season, and a 10 percent chance for a below normal season. Most of the other hurricane outlooks issued by various outlets are also expecting an above normal season, due to the signals mentioned above. An average season consists of 14.4 named storms, of which 7.2 become hurricanes and 3.2 become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale). NOAA’s forecast for this season calls for 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State, the first group to forecast how active a hurricane season would be, originally led by the late Dr. Bill Gray, will issue their updated forecast on June 11. Their initial forecast from April called for an above average season, with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. They also pegged the chance at a storm making landfall in the Massachusetts at 40% (33% is the average in any given year), and the odds of a hurricane making landfall in Massachusetts at 18% (14% is the average). Overall, 8 of the past 9 hurricane seasons have featured above normal activity across the Atlantic.
Forecasters are expecting another active hurricane season. Image provided by NOAA.
Despite the early start for the many of the past several years, the average date for the first named storm in the Atlantic is still June 20, and the average date for the first hurricane is August 11. Over 97% of all named storms in the Atlantic form between June 1 and November 30. Most early season storms tend to be on the weaker side. A hurricane hasn’t made landfall in the United States before July 1 since Hurricane Bonnie came ashore as a minimal hurricane near the Texas/Louisiana border on June 26, 1986.
Based on climatology, the most likely spots for an early season storm are off the Southeast coast, in the Gulf of Mexico, or the northwestern Caribbean. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
The number of storms that form in any given season has no correlation on how many storms (if any) will impact the United States. In 2010, 19 named storms were observed in the Atlantic, 12 of them became hurricanes, and 5 were major hurricanes. Only one storm made landfall in the United States, and that was Bonnie, which was a minimal tropical storm at landfall. In 1990, there were a total 14 named storms, 8 of them hurricanes and 1 major hurricane. Not a single one of them made landfall in the United States. On the flip side, only 7 named storms formed in 1992, and the first one didn’t develop until August 16. That storm, however, was named Andrew, and it made landfall just south of Miami as a category 5 storm. It only takes one storm to ruin your entire year.
Map showing the track of all of the hurricanes that crossed New England since 1851. Image provided by NOAA.
Here in New England, we should always pay attention when a storm is nearing the Bahamas, as those are the ones that have the potential to impact us, and we are extremely overdue for a hurricane to make landfall. Using the HURDAT database which has data back to 1851, here are some stats that show exactly how overdue we are:
Since 1851, 39 storms of tropical storm strength of greater have made landfall in New England or Long Island, an average of one every 4.5 years. The longest we’ve ever gone without one is 11 years, between 1897 and 1908 and also between 1923 and 1934. In 2021, we had two tropical storms (Elsa and Henri) make landfall in the region, so it’s been 4 years, which means we are due for another.
Since 1851, 32 strong tropical storms (maximum sustained winds of 60 mph or more) have made landfall in New England or Long Island, an average of one every 5.4 years. The longest we’ve ever gone without one is 19 years, between 1897 and 1916. In 2021, we had two strong tropical storms (Elsa and Henri) make landfall in the region.
Since 1851, a hurricane has made landfall in New England or Long Island 18 times, an average of one every 9.7 years. The longest we’ve ever gone between hurricane landfalls is 38 years, between 1896 and 1934. It’s now been 34 years since Hurricane Bob, our 2nd longest drought on record.
Since 1851, 8 hurricanes of Category 2 intensity or stronger have made landfall in New England or Long Island, an average of one every 21.8 years. The longest we’ve gone between hits by storms of that intensity is 69 years, between 1869 and 1938. We’re at 34 years since Bob, the last one to do so.
Since 1851, New England/Long Island has had 3 Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) make landfall – an unnamed storm in October of 1869 that grazed the eastern tip of Long Island before making landfall just west of Charlestown, RI; the infamous 1938 Long Island Express that made landfall near Brookhaven, NY and then again near New Haven, CT; and Hurricane Carol in 1954 which crossed East Hampton, NY and then made a 2nd landfall near Groton, CT. That’s an average of 1 every 58 years, and we’re now at 71 years since Carol, making this the longest stretch on record. There are also 3 documented storms from before 1851 – The Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635, the 1815 New England Hurricane, and the Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane of 1821. That’s it. That changes the numbers to 6 in 390 years, or one every 65 years, with a longest drought of 180 years.
Satellite photo of Hurricane Bob approaching New England. Bob was the last hurricane to make landfall in New England – 34 years ago. Image provided by NOAA.
We all saw what Sandy did back in 2012, and that was a minimal hurricane that eventually made landfall in southern New Jersey (technically as an extratropical storm), though there were other factors that led to the amount of damage it caused. When (not if) the next big storm comes up the coast, much of this region will not be prepared for the storm or its aftermath. A storm doesn’t need to make a direct hit on New England to have significant impacts. In addition to Sandy, the so-called “Perfect Storm” in 1991 was an offshore system that became a hurricane and battered the coastline with strong winds and significant coastal impacts for a few days around Halloween. In 1955, Hurricane Connie and Tropical Storm Diane both made landfall in North Carolina 5 days apart. Connie tracked into the eastern Great Lakes, but still produced some heavy rain in New England, especially western New England. A few days later, Diane passed just south of New England on its way out to sea, but produced widespread rainfall totals of 5-15 inches across most of southern New England, with 19.75″ in Westfield, Massachusetts. The combination of these back-to-back storms resulted in some of the worst flooding this region has ever seen.
Rainfall totals from Tropical Storm Diane in August, 1995. Image provided by NOAA.
The Atlantic is quiet right now, but even if something were to form off the East Coast in the next few weeks and head this way, the waters off of New England are still much too cold to sustain a tropical system, so we’d see something more like a typical nor’easter. Only two tropical storms have ever made landfall in the Northeast before the end of June. The first was an unnamed minimal tropical storm that crossed extreme eastern Long Island and went into southeastern Connecticut on May 30, 1908. The other was Tropical Storm Agnes, which made landfall near New York City on June 22, 1972, then caused devastating flooding across parts of the Mid-Atlantic states. In terms of hurricanes, the earliest one to ever make landfall up this way was Hurricane Belle, which slammed into Long Island as a minimal hurricane with 75 mph winds on August 9, 1976. We did have Hurricane Arthur pass just offshore of Nantucket on July 4, 2014. While it did not make landfall, it made for a rather wet and cool holiday, especially across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts. Statistically, the most likely time for a hurricane to hit New England is between the middle of August and late September. Of the 18 hurricanes that made landfall in New England or Long Island since 1851, 15 of them have done so between August 19 and September 27.
The most likely time for a tropical system to impact our area is August of September. Image provided by the National Weather Service office in Norton, MA.
As always, you should get your weather information from a trusted source (hopefully you trust us), especially when dealing with tropical systems. Much like with snowstorms in the winter, there will be plenty of hype and exaggeration on Twitter and Facebook, as well as people posting doom and gloom maps showing how a thunderstorm near the coast of Africa will develop into a Category 5 storm and head right for the East Coast in the next 2 weeks. We’re not among that group, we give you facts and our best forecasts, without any hype. If there’s reason to worry, we’ll let you know with plenty of advance warning. It’s always best to prepare ahead of the season. Chances are, you won’t have anything to worry about, but in case you do, it’s always good to be prepared.
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