Weekly Outlook: July 15-21, 2024

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Hot and humid weather continues for the first half of the week, but some relief is on the way.

Heat Advisories are in effect for a large portion of the region into Wednesday. Images provided by the National Weather Service in Norton.

A Bermuda High remains anchored offshore, with southwest winds around the high continuing to pump hot and humid weather into the region into Wednesday. Daytime highs will likely top 90 away from the South Coast, and when the humidity is factored in, it will feel like it is near or over 100 degrees during the hottest part of the afternoon. Heat Advisories have been posted for the region as a result. Try to stay indoors if you can, and take precautions if you will be outside, including wearing sunscreen, seeking shade as much as possible, and drinking plenty of liquids. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon as a pair of weak disturbances cross the region, but these will likely not be that widespread. If you do get caught under one, heavy downpours and gusty winds are the biggest threats.

The heat index will be near or over 100 across much of the region Tuesday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

A cold front will move in on Wednesday, with more widespread showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it Wednesday afternoon and night. Some of the storms could be quite strong, with strong winds and heavy downpours the main threats once again. Once the front moves through at night, much drier air settles in for the end of the week and the weekend. Instead of dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s, we’ll see dewpoints in the 50s, maybe even upper 40s, and air temperatures will be in the 80s during the day, and 60s possibly upper 50s at night, so you’ll be able to give the air conditioner a break and open the windows. We may start to warm up again by the end of the weekend as high pressure slides offshore.

Dewpoints will drop into the upper 40s and 50s as much drier air settles in on Thursday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Some patchy fog early, otherwise sunshine and some afternoon clouds, chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 89-96, cooler along the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Monday night: Any showers or storms end in the evening, otherwise partly cloudy. Low 68-75.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny, a late-day shower or thunderstorm possible. High 90-97, cooler along the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy, any showers or storms end in the evening. Low 69-76.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, showers and thunderstorms likely late in the day and into the night. High 89-96, cooler along the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, not as humid. High 80-87.

Friday: Mostly sunny. High 79-86, cooler along the coast.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 81-88.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 82-89.

Weekend Outlook: July 12-15, 2024

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Hot and humid weather continues into a good chunk of next week across the region.

Dewpoints will peak in the mid 70s on Saturday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

A Bermuda High will remain anchored offshore for the next several days, with southwest winds continuing to pump very warm to hot and humid conditions into the region. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible on Friday, but a weak boundary will move in Friday night, bringing a better chance for some widespread showers and thunderstorms late Friday night into Saturday morning. Some of these storms could produce heavy rainfall, with some localized flooding possible. We’ll start to clear out late Saturday, with a drier day likely on Sunday. It’ll still be hot, and on the humid side, but not quite as humid as recent days. By Monday, humidity levels will creep back up, with a few showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon.

Many of the models are showing the potential for some heavy rainfall amounts for at least parts of the region on Saturday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 66-73.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm, a little breezy in the afternoon. High 85-92, a little cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Friday night: Becoming mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms developing after midnight. Low 68-75.

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, some of them heavy in the morning, then skies start to clear out late in the day. High 80-87, a little cooler across Cape Cod.

Saturday night: Becoming clear. Low 65-72.

Sunday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 86-93, a little cooler across Cape Cod.

Sunday night: Clear skies. Low 66-73.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, a shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 87-94, a little cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Weekly Outlook: July 8-14, 2024

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The humidity is going to stick around for most of the week, with heat to start the week as well.

Thursday looks like the day the humidity peaks with dewpoints well into the 70s. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We start the week off with very warm to hot and humid conditions across the region for Monday and Tuesday thanks to a Bermuda high. Southwest winds will pump the heat and humidity in, though it will act as a seabreeze along the South Coast. Away from the South Coast we’re looking at temperatures well into the 80s and lower 90s, with dewpoints likely in the lower to middle 70s. As a result, the heat index will be near or over 100 during the next few afternoons. A Heat Advisory is in effect for Monday and Tuesday for parts of the region, and it will likely get expanded to not only include more of the region, but extended into Wednesday as well. A few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms may pop up Tuesday afternoon, but most of the region should remain dry. A weak frontal boundary drops in on Wednesday, but we’ll likely stay quite warm and humid with the boundary north of us, but it will help to trigger more showers and thunderstorms, especially north of the Mass Pike. That front will hang around for much of the remainder of the week, giving us more cloudcover, which will keep temperatures a little lower, but also better chances for showers and thunderstorms each day, especially Thursday and Friday, when what’s left of Beryl passes by, likely to our north and west. With a humid airmass in place, any of the thunderstorms may produce some heavy downpours each afternoon, especially when Beryl’s remains pass by. While not everyone will get hit each day, by the end of the week, it wouldn’t be a surprise if some spots had picked up anywhere from 3 to 5 inches of rain. At some point during the weekend, that boundary may sag southward, bringing in some slightly drier air, and limiting the shower and thunderstorm activity, though when, or if, that occurs, is still a question mark.

Some models show the potential for quite a bit of rain in parts of the region this week. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 87-94, cooler along the coast.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, areas of fog near the South Coast. Low 67-74.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, slight chance for an afternoon shower. High 86-93, cooler along the South Coast.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, again, some fog possible near the South Coast. Low 68-75.

Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sun, some afternoon showers or thunderstorms likely, especially north of the Mass Pike. High 83-90, cooler right along the South Coast.

Thursday: Partly sunny, a few showers and thunderstorms possible, again mostly north of the Mass Pike. High 80-87.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds with more showers and thunderstorms around. High 83-90.

Saturday: Partly sunny, chance for a few additional showers and thunderstorms, mostly south of the Mass Pike. High 81-88.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 84-91.

Holiday Weekend Outlook: July 4-8, 2024 + Tropical Outlook

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The long weekend will feature typical summertime weather – warm temperatures, moderate to high humidity, and a daily chance for pop-up showers and thunderstorms.

Dewpoints will get well into the 70s around here on Saturday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

After a couple of warm but dry days, we’ll see humidity levels increasing over the next few days thanks to southwest winds. A weak front will move in for the Fourth of July, but it won’t ruin any plans you may have. It will bring in some clouds, but only a few widely scattered showers and/or thunderstorms. So, keep an eye to the sky if you’ve got outdoor plans, but don’t go cancelling them, as most places will remain dry. Some patchy dense fog is likely Thursday night, especially near the South Coast, but it shouldn’t impact any fireworks displays. Friday looks like a typical summertime day with partly sunny skies, warm and humid conditions, and a few pop-up showers or thunderstorms. Another weak system moves in for Saturday, resulting in a very humid day, with a better chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially late in the day and at night. Sunday and Monday will be similar to Friday, with intervals of sun and clouds, fairly humid conditions (but not as humid as Saturday), and a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

Hurricane Beryl is approaching the south coast of Jamaica this afternoon. Loop provided by NOAA.

Meanwhile, in the tropics, Hurricane Beryl is barreling towards Jamaica this afternoon. As of 2pm, Beryl was centered about 45 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, moving toward the west-northwest at 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 140 mph, making Beryl a Category 4 hurricane. It is the strongest storm to impact Jamaica since Hurricane Dean in 2007. Damaging winds, torrential rain, and flooding are likely across Jamaica for the rest of the afternoon and evening, especially southern portions of the island, then Beryl will head toward the Cayman Islands tonight. Beyond that, it will continue across the Caribbean while gradually weakening before another likely landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula early Friday. It should weaken over the Yucatan, but it will move back into the Gulf of Mexico late Friday, then could strengthen once again. The models are split on whether it continues westward into Mainland Mexico or makes it a right turn and heads for southern Texas, but we’ll worry about that later this week.

After Jamaica, Beryl will head towards the Cayman Islands and the Yucatan Peninsula. After that, things ger murky. Loop provided by Tomer Burg.

Beryl has been shattering records over the past several days even before crossing the Windward Islands. It is the strongest storm ever in the Atlantic during the months of June and July. It is the earliest Category 5 hurricane ever in the Atlantic (by more than 2 weeks). It was the strongest storm to ever cross the Southern Windward Islands when it moved across Carriacou Island on Monday with top winds near 140 mph. Sea surface temperatures are well above normal across the Atlantic and Caribbean, which aided in Beryl getting so strong, but it also featured upper-level conditions that were nearly ideal for development and strengthening, which is not that common during June and July.

Radar loop from Barbados showing Beryl’s approach and passage. Loop provided by Brian McNoldy/University of Miami.

Wednesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 59-66.

Thursday: Partly sunny, more humid, slight chance for a shower. High 80-87, a little cooler near the coast.

Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers possible and some patchy fog developing. Low 63-70.

Friday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 83-90, a little cooler across Cape Cod.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers. Low 64-71.

Saturday: More clouds than sun, very humid, chance for a few showers or thunderstorms. High 77-84.

Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers or thunderstorms. Low 66-73.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 85-92, a little cooler across Cape Cod.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 63-70.

Monday: Intervals of sun and clouds. High 84-91, a little cooler across Cape Cod.

Weekly Outlook: July 1-7, 2024

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Cooler and drier weather moves in to start the week, but heat and humidity will make a return appearance for the Fourth of July.

Dewpoints will drop into the 50s on Tuesday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

High pressure builds in to start the week with lower humidity and cooler temperatures. An upper-level disturbance will also move in, generating some clouds, and possibly a few pop-up showers. With the high building in for Tuesday and Wednesday we’ll have more sunshine, seasonably warm temperatures and comfortable humidity levels. A weak front will approach Wednesday night, with a few showers possible, but the front likely stalls out and washes out without moving through the region. Very warm and increasingly humid conditions are expected from the Fourth of July into the weekend. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon, especially Friday and Saturday.

Some models show the potential for hot and humid weather to return this coming weekend. Imageprovided by Weathermodels.com.

Monday: Partly sunny, chance for a pop-up shower or two, not as humid. High 72-79.

Monday night: Becoming clear. Low 57-64.

Tuesday: Lots of sunshine. High 78-85.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 58-65.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few showers at night. High 79-86.

Fourth of July: Chance for a morning shower, otherwise partly sunny and becoming humid. High 83-90, a little cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a late-day shower or thunderstorm. High 83-90, a little cooler along the coast.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for some late-day showers or thunderstorms. High 84-91, a little cooler along the coast.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 85-92, a little cooler along the coast.

Tropical Depression Two Forms

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Early season forecasts called for an active hurricane season in the Atlantic due to a multitude of factors, and so far, we’re off to a fast start.

Forecast track for Tropical Depression Two. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Earlier in June, Tropical Storm Alberto brought heavy rain and some gusty winds to parts of Mexico and southern Texas. Given that this area has been in a drought, the rainfall was actually quite welcome, though probably not all at once. The moisture from Alberto also helped to get the Southwest Monsoon season off to an early start. Now as we approach the final days of June, we have a new Tropical Depression in the Atlantic, and it’s in a spot that we normally wouldn’t expect a storm to form this early in the season (more on that in a minute).

Tropical Storm Alberto brought very heavy rain to parts of northeastern Mexico earlier in June. Image provided by WeatherBell.

As of 5pm, the National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on newly-formed Tropical Depression Two. It was centered about 1225 miles east-southeast of Barbados, moving toward the west at 21 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 35 mph. The system should gradually strengthen, likely becoming Tropical Storm Beryl later tonight or Saturday, while heading off toward the west-northwest. It will likely become a threat to the Windward Islands by late Sunday or early Monday, but as of now, there are no watches or warnings in effect. Once it passes the islands, it should continue west-northwestward across the Caribbean, but obviously other factors can impact the exact track that it takes, as well as the intensity the storm reaches. Given that these forecasts have considerable uncertainty beyond 3-4 days, we won’t even begin to speculate on where it might head.

Forecast tracks for TD2 from the members of several model ensembles. Loop provided by Tomer Burg.

We’ve been keeping a close eye on this system for a few days now as the tropical wave responsible for the system has been crossing the Atlantic. The wave stayed rather far south, which is what helped it develop. To the north, there has been some Saharan Dust making its way across the Atlantic, and wind shear has been higher. Both of those factors inhibit the development of tropical systems, but by staying farther south and avoiding those, it has taken advantage of favorable conditions to gradually get organized this week.

Satellite loop centered on Tropical Depression 2. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

If this system can become a tropical storm before Sunday evening (and all indications are that it will), it will become only the 7th named storm to form east of the Caribbean during the month of June since 1851. The previous 6 storms were:

  • Unnamed Storm #2 in 1933
  • Tropical Storm Ana in 1979
  • Tropical Storm Bret in 2017
  • Tropical Storm Bonnie in 2022
  • Tropical Storm Bret in 2023
  • Tropical Storm Cindy in 2023

Of those six storms, only the 1933 storm reached hurricane strength during the month of June.

Tropical Depression Two isn’t the only storm we’re keeping an eye at this time. A tropical wave and associated area of low pressure are approaching the Yucatan Peninsula this evening. Once it moves into the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, there is a small window for the system to develop. Whether it does or not, it will bring another round of heavy rain into northeastern Mexico.

There are a couple of areas of interest across the tropics at this time Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

There’s also another tropical wave way out in the Atlantic, several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. It’s disorganized right now, and conditions aren’t favorable for development at this time, but as it makes its way across the Atlantic, it could move into a more favorable area by early next week.

Weekend Outlook: June 28 – July 1, 2024

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More wet weather is on the way to close out June, but the weekend won’t be a washout.

Friday will be a refreshingly dry day with dewpoints only in the 40s across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

High pressure continues to build in for tonight and Friday with generally dry weather and seasonably mild temperatures. As the high slides offshore, warm and humid weather will move back in Friday night and Saturday along with clouds as a cold front approaches from the west. Most of Saturday should remain dry, albeit warm and humid, but another round of showers and thunderstorms will move in by evening, and continue overnight and into a good chunk of Sunday. The cold front moves through later Sunday, bringing an end to the shower activity, with drier weather pushing in behind it. High pressure builds back in for Monday with sunshine, cooler temperatures, and lower humidity once again.

Most of the rain this weekend will fall Saturday night and Sunday morning. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Thursday night: Clear and cool. Low 51-58.

Friday: Plenty of sunshine. High 71-78.

Friday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 54-61.

Saturday: Some morning sun, then skies become mostly cloudy and humid with some showers and thunderstorms possible by evening, breezy. High 73-80.

Saturday night: Cloudy and breezy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Low 63-70.

Sunday: Breezy with showers and thunderstorms ending, some clearing may take place late in the day. High 81-88.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 58-65.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 73-80.

Weekly Outlook: June 24-30, 2024

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As we head into the last week of June, we’ll enjoy some warm weather with humidity levels rising and dropping at various points.

Dewpoints could drop into the lower 50s by Friday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

A cold front will move across the region during the day today, but moisture will be limited, so only a few stray showers will likely accompany the front. Drier air settles in behind it for tonight and Tuesday. High pressure builds in behind the front on Tuesday with plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures. Another cold front will begin to approach on Wednesday, with hot and humid weather returning. As the front moves in late in the day, another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected. The timing of the front will determine whether we’re looking at more severe weather or not, but the potential exists, as long as the front moves in during the afternoon. Showers and storms come to an end late Wednesday night or early Thursday, then high pressure builds back in with cooler and drier conditions for Thursday and Friday. As that high moves offshore, warmer and more humid weather returns on Saturday. Another frontal system may move in on Sunday, with another round of showers and thunderstorms possible.

Some models have showers and thunderstorms move in late Wednesday afternoon, others wait until evening. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for an afternoon shower. High 79-86.

Monday night: Partly cloudy during the evening, clearing overnight. Low 58-65.

Tuesday: Sunny, not as humid. High 82-89.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 64-71.

Wednesday: Early sun, then increasing clouds, showers and thunderstorms likely late in the day and at night, breezy, more humid. High 86-93, a little cooler near the South Coast.

Thursday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny, drier. High 77-84.

Friday: Plenty of sunshine. High 73-80.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 77-84.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for some showers and thunderstorms. High 81-88.

Weekend Outlook: June 21-24, 2024

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The heat will relent for the weekend, but the humidity will take a bit longer.

Friday afternoon temperatures will be 15-25 cooler than this afternoon across the region. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Today will be the last hot and humid day for a bit across the region, with some strong to severe thunderstorms bringing an end to the heat this afternoon and evening. The main threats with these storms are heavy downpours and gusty winds. Tonight will remain warm, but a backdoor cold front moves through on Friday, ushing much cooler air in, as winds shift into the northeast, and blow in over the still relatively cool Atlantic. Highs on Friday will only be in the 70s and 80s, warmest near the South Coast, where we’ll still get warm in the morning before the front moves through. Dewpoints will drop a bit, but will likely remain in the 60s, so it’ll be on the humid side still. Some showers are likely ahead of the front as well. The front stalls out near or just south of the region on Saturday, resulting in a rather comfortable day, but with a decent amount of clouds. On Sunday, that front will try to lift northward as a warm front once again, bringing the very warm and humid air back in. However, a disturbance moving in from the west will likely help to produce some showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. A cold front moves through on Monday, with warm, humid conditions ahead of it in the morning, along with more showers and thunderstorms, then cooler and drier air starts to move in by late in the day behind the front.

Dewpoints remain fairly high through the weekend, then finally start to drop late Monday. Loop provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Showers and thunderstorms ending shortly after sunset, remaining partly to mostly cloudy overnight. Low 65-72.

Friday: Partly sunny with some showers likely. High 82-89 in the morning, turning cooler in the afternoon.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy, a few additional showers, mainly during the evening. Low 61-68.

Saturday: More clouds than sun, a few showers possible. High 77-84, a little cooler along the coast, especially the North Shore and NH Seacoast.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a shower. Low 60-67.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun, breezy, showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day. High 83-90, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers taper off during the evening. Low 65-72.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, some showers around during the morning. High 79-86, a little cooler across Cape Cod.

Weekly Outlook: June 17-23, 2024

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Ready or not, the first heat wave of the summer is on the way later this week.

A warm front will cross the region today with just some clouds accompanying it, but little to no precipitation. Behind it, south to southwest winds will usher warmer and more humid air in, and it will remain in place for a good chunk of the week. High pressure building in both at the surface and aloft will result in partly to mostly sunny skies with hot and humid conditions from Tuesday into at least Thursday. The south winds will keep the South Coast and Cape Cod cooler, only in the 80s or even upper 70s, but inland temperatures will get well into the 90s, but when you factor in the humidity, it will feel like 95-105 degrees during the hottest part of the day each afternoon. Air temperatures could approach 100 both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon, especially from MetroWest into the Merrimack Valley, with some records possible. Excessive Heat Watches and Heat Advisories are already in effect for parts of the region from Tuesday afternoon into Friday evening. A few showers and thunderstorms may pop up each afternoon, especially Thursday, but they will be widely scattered, and only provide some relief in a few spots.

Thursday is looking like the hottest day in quite some time across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

By the end of the week, a cold will start to drop down from the north, bringing more widespread showers and thunderstorms along with cooler weather, but when it moves through is still a question mark. Some models bring it down on Friday, have it lift back northward later Saturday, others have it move through on Friday, then not come back until early in the following week. This will obviously have a big impact on the temperature forecast, especially for the weekend. Some showers will likely accompany this front as waves of low pressure ride along it, but timing them is a fool’s errand at this point, because we’re not even sure yet when the front will move through.

Not all of the models have cooler air move in for Saturday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy during the afternoon. High 78-85, a little cooler near the South Coast.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 61-68.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 90-97, except 82-89 near the South Coast and 74-81 across the Cape and Islands.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 64-71.

Wednesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 93-100, except 85-92 near the South Coast and 77-84 across the Cape and Islands.

Thursday: Partly sunny. High 95-102, except 87-94 near the South Coast and 79-86 across the Cape and Islands.

Friday: Intervals of clouds and sun with some showers and thunderstorms possible. High 90-97, except 82-89 near the coast.

Saturday: Partly sunny, chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 84-91, cooler near the coast.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun, showers and thunderstorms possible. High 80-87, cooler near the coast.