Despite what the app on your phone says, most of the weekend will actually be rather pleasant.
What’s left of Debby will pass well north and west of us Friday night. Images provided by the National Hurricane Center.
What’s left of Debby will head northward tonight, sending a warm front across the region. Some showers may accompany it, but you’ll notice humidity levels increasing once again. Temperatures may actually rise a few degrees overnight as winds shift into the southeast and south. Ex-Debby will pass well north and west of the region Friday and Friday night, keeping us in the warm and humid side ahead of the storm. We’ll have some occasional showers during the day on Friday, but it won’t be a washout. Some steadier and potentially heavier showers are likely Friday night into early Saturday as Ex-Debby crosses northern New England and drags a cold front across our area. The showers end Saturday morning, then we’ll clear out in the afternoon, with gusty west to northwest winds ushering drier air in, though it will remain quite warm. High pressure then builds in for Sunday and Monday with sunshine, warm temperatures, and comfortable humidity levels.
There may be some heavier downpours, but for the most part, the models do not bring heavy rain into the region for Friday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Cloudy with a few showers likely. Low 60-67 during the evening, temperatures may rise a bit after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy, some occasional showers at times, becoming breezy in the afternoon. High 77-84.
Friday night: Mostly cloudy, breezy, showers becoming more widespread with some heavier downpours and a few rumbles of thunder. Low 69-76.
Saturday: Breezy with showers and thunderstorms ending in the morning (early afternoon across Cape Cod), becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 81-88, a little cooler across Cape Cod.
Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 58-65.
Sunday: Sunshine and a few clouds, not as humid. High 76-83.
A much cooler and wetter week is upcoming for the region.
Some models show the potential for a significant amount of rain Tuesday and Wednesday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
We’ve got one more hot and humid day today with high pressure offshore, but big changes are on the way. A cold front will move in tonight, possibly accompanied by some showers and thunderstorms. The front is expected to stall out near or just south of us on Tuesday, with much cooler weather likely behind it. Some additional showers are likely during the day on Tuesday. A wave of low pressure riding along the front will bring in some rain for Tuesday night and Wednesday, possibly some heavy rain, especially south of the Mass Pike. Despite how wet it has been around here for the past year or more, we’ve actually been rather dry for the past month or two, and can use the rain, though maybe not all at once. High pressure briefly brings in drier air for Wednesday night and part of Thursday before Debby impacts the region.
By Friday evening, there is a more than 1000 mile spread in the Ensemble members for the location of Debby. Image provided by Tomer Burg.
As of 2am, Hurricane Debby was centered only 40 miles west of Cedar Key, Florida, moving toward the north at 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 80 mph. By the time most of you read this, Debby will have already made landfall in the Florida Big Bend region. Storm surge flooding will gradually die down this morning, and winds will steadily weaken, but rain will continue across the Southeast for several days, with widespread significant flooding likely from northern Florida into the Carolinas. Once inland, Debby is likely to stall out as steering currents collapse, and meander around in the Southeast, resulting in all of that rainfall. While Debby is doing that, some of the moisture from it will get drawn northward, interacting with that stalled frontal system, bringing us some rain for Friday and Saturday. In fact, we could be looking at quite a bit of rain. The wildcard is Debby itself. Some models have Debby dissipate across the Southeast, some bring it back offshore then into the Carolinas before heading up the coast in a weakened state, and some keep it inland and weak, then bring it up here. If it gets up here, there is even more uncertainty, as some models bring what’s left of the circulation right across southern New England, some bring it south of New England, while strengthening as it becomes extratropical, which introduces even more issues here, including gusty winds, not to mention temperature forecasts depending on the where the storm tracks. What you see below is our “best guest-imate” right now, but obviously this is very low confidence based on everything we just mentioned. A cold front will move through Saturday night, kicking whatever is left of Debby out to sea, and bringing drier weather in for Sunday.
Depending on Debby’s track, parts of the region could receive more heavy rain Friday and Saturday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Mostly sunny, clouds start to increase late in the day. High 85-92, little cooler across Cape Cod.
Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with showers likely. Low 65-72.
Tuesday: More clouds than sun, any showers end early, possibly redevelop towards evening. High 72-79, early, cooler in the afternoon.
After a nearly month-long slumber, the Atlantic is waking up again with the formation of Tropical Storm Debby.
Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Debby. Loop provided by NOAA.
A tropical wave that we’ve been watching for nearly a week finally found some favorable atmospheric conditions as it moved into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and became Tropical Depression Four Friday night, then was upgraded to Tropical Storm Debby Saturday afternoon. As of 8pm Saturday, Debby was centered about 100 miles west-southwest of Key West, Florida, moving toward the northwest at 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 40 mph. Most of the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle are under a variety of Tropical Storm, Hurricane, and Storm Surge Watches or warnings.
Forecast track for Tropical Storm Debby. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Debby’s immediate future is fairly simple – it will turn more toward the north while strengthening over the next day or so, heading towards the Florida Panhandle or the Big Bend area. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for Debby to reach minimal hurricane strength before making landfall early Monday. However, the models (and NHC) do a poor job forecasting rapid intensification, and the water in the eastern Gulf of Mexico is extremely warm, providing plenty of fuel for the storm. While the forecast doesn’t show it, we wouldn’t be surprised if Debby does intensify rapidly at some point on Sunday, and is a much stronger storm at landfall.
Water temperatures in the eastern Gulf of Mexico are 30-32C (85-90F). Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.
Once inland, the steering currents collapse, and Debby will slow down and meander around across parts of northern Florida, Georgia, or South Carolina during the first part of next week while weakening. This will increase the flooding threat across the region (more on that in a bit). After that, things get very uncertain. Some models keep the storm inland over the Southeast, steadily weakening before heading northeastward later in the week. Other models bring the storm back out into the Atlantic, with some strengthening, with a second landfall in the Carolinas, or a turn out to sea. At this point, it’s impossible to tell which scenario will happen, so we won’t even attempt to.
The various model ensembles show a wide range of potential tracks for Debby over the next 5 days. Loop provided by Tomer Burg.
Debby will have significant impacts across Florida and parts of the Southeast over the next few days. Strong winds are obviously a threat near where the storm makes landfall. Storm surge is likely across most of the Florida Gulf Coast, with the highest surge and correspondingly highest chance for coastal flooding near and to the right of where the storm makes landfall. By far, the biggest threat is freshwater flooding from heavy rainfall. Widespread rainfall totals of 5-10 inches are expected from central Florida into southern North Carolina, with heavier amounts likely, especially if the storm does stall out. Rainfall totals in excess of 20 inches are not out of the question, especially in parts of Georgia and South Carolina.
Extreme rainfall is likely across the Southeast from Debby with widespread flooding likely. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
While there are no other storms on the horizon at this time, we are getting closer to the peak of hurricane season, so it is likely just a matter of time until the next storm develops.
While some people may Ride the Lightning this weekend, we certainly won’t be Trapped Under Ice.
Dewpoints could get well into the 70s on Saturday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
It’s Sad But True, that humidity will remain in place for much of the weekend, as a Bermuda remains anchored offshore, just as it has for a good chunk of the summer so far. It’s enough to drive you Stone Cold Crazy if you don’t like heat and humidity. Just a couple of stray showers or thunderstorms are possible, but most of us will stay dry. As we head into Saturday, an upper-level disturbance will head toward the region, bringing in more clouds, which will keep temperatures a little lower, but it will remain humid, which will Fuel a chance for showers and thunderstorms. A cold front moves in on Sunday, with more showers and thunderstorms likely. With the humid air in place, any showers or storms both Saturday and Sunday could produce heavy rain in some spots. Despite the fact that we’re expecting showers and thunderstorms both days, neither day will be a washout, so Wherever You May Roam, don’t cancel any outdoor plans you may have, but you should keep an eye to the sky (or on the radar), to plan your Escape if need be. The front moves through, and drier air moves in for Monday giving us One day that isn’t humid., but will stay fairly warm. A second cold front moves through late in the day, possibly triggering another shower or thunderstorm, but for the most part, Monday, should be a dry day.
Most of the models show the potential for a decent amount of rain this weekend, but activity could be more hit-and-miss than widespread. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Clear skies. Low 67-74.
Friday: Sunny in the morning, then clouds start to move in with a late-day shower or thunderstorm possible. High 88-95, a little cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers or thunderstorms. Low 68-75.
Saturday: Partly sunny with some showers and thunderstorms around. High 84-91, a little cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, a few more showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 68-75.
Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for showers and thunderstorms. High 81-88.
Sunday night: Any showers or storms end in the evening, becoming partly cloudy. Low 65-72.
Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, just a slight chance for a late-day shower or thunderstorm. High 84-91.
Unsettled weather returns this week, but that doesn’t mean any of the days will be a washout.
Showers should taper off this morning, but a few are still possible through the evening. Loop provided by WeatherBell.
A weak low pressure system will pull away from the region today, with any lingering showers coming to an end, and some sunny breaks developing. We could see a few more showers and thunderstorms pop up during the afternoon, but they’ll likely be few and far between. After that, the Bermuda High sets up shop offshore once again, with humidity levels increasing, and temperatures following suit later in the week. We’ll have a series of weak upper-level disturbances also scooting across the Northeast, and these will help to trigger some pop-up showers and thunderstorms each afternoon right through the week. Once of these disturbances may be a little stronger than the others when it moves through on Wednesday, which could lead to some stronger storms, with heavy downpours and strong winds possible in some of them. By the end of the week, temperatures may top 90 again in some areas, accompanied by high humidity, resulting in heat indices well into the 90s or even higher.
Temperatures could top 90 later this week. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Just a quick note about the tropics as well. After Beryl made landfall in Texas, it’s been rather quiet for a few weeks, but that may be changing. A tropical wave crossing the Atlantic may interact with another disturbance as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. There is some potential for this system to develop into a tropical depression later this week. One of the forecast models has been rather insistent on the development of this system, and not only that, it tries to make it a threat to the East Coast. This is just one model, and most of the others do not show this scenario. Of course, this hasn’t stopped the Facebook Forecasters from cranking up the hype machine already. The odds that this system will be a threat up here are extremely tiny at this point in time. We won’t say they are zero, but for now, it’s roughly the same odds that the USA Basketball team doesn’t win a medal at the Olympics. Still, it’s looking like the next couple of months will be rather active, and we are extremely overdue for a hurricane to come calling, so we’ll be keeping a close eye on things for you and will let you know if there is a storm we actually need to be concerned about.
After a 3-week slumber, the Atlantic could be waking up again. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Monday: Plenty of clouds with showers early, some afternoon sunny breaks with another shower or thunderstorm possible, humid. High 71-78.
Monday night: Any lingering showers end in the evening, otherwise partly cloudy, areas of patchy fog may develop. Low 62-69.
Tuesday: Partly sunny, slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 81-88.
Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 66-73.
Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine with scattered showers and thunderstorms, a few could produce heavy downpours and gusty winds. High 76-83.
Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a pop-up shower or thunderstorm. High 82-89.
Friday: Partly sunny, some late-day showers or thunderstorms are possible. High 84-91.
Saturday: Partly sunny, chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 84-91.
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 83-90.
In terms of the weather, this will be one of the best weekends all summer.
Climatologically, these are the warmest days of the year. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
A cold front will push offshore this evening, then high pressure builds in, with sunshine, lower humidity, and seasonably warm temperatures for Friday and the weekend. By Monday, things may change. Earlier, it was looking like it would be dry and more humid, but the latest models are all showing the potential for a weak storm system off the coast, which would bring in some clouds and showers. We’re a little skeptical about such a change from one run to the next, but nearly all of the models are showing it, so Monday may not be as great as we originally were thinking.
Monday may not turn out to be such a great day after all. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Any lingering showers end this evening, then skies clear out overnight. Low 59-66.
Friday: Plenty of sunshine, not as humid. High 78-85.
Friday night: Clear skies. Low 58-65.
Saturday: More sunshine. High 81-88, a little cooler near the coast.
Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 59-66.
Sunday: Sunny. High 83-90, a little cooler along the coast.
Sunday night: Clear during the evening, increasing clouds late at night. Low 60-67.
Monday. More clouds than sun with a chance of showers. High 77-84.
The humidity is back, but the heat will hold off for at least a few days.
Wednesday could end up as a rather cool day across the region. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
A warm front lifts northward across the region today, allowing warm and humid weather to return, with some showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. Another front will remain stalled out near the South Coast, and as waves of low pressure ride along the front, they’ll bring in a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms between Monday night and Thursday. Any storms that do form could produce some heavy downpours, which could lead to some flash flooding in spots, as well as some gusty winds. It’s actually been a little dry for the past month or so, so your lawn might welcome the rain, even if you don’t. With the cloudcover and rainfall, temperatures will be cooler, likely in the 70s and lower 80s for Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday night, a stronger cold front will move through with another round of showers and thunderstorms likely ahead of it. High pressure builds in behind the front for Friday and next weekend with some drier air, but it will turn even warmer, with 90-degree readings possible once again.
A little dryness is showing up across parts of northern Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire recently. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center
Monday: Partly sunny, a late-day shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 81-88.
Monday night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 63-70.
Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, chance for a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly early and again late in the day. High 75-82.
Tuesday night: Plenty of clouds with a few showers and thunderstorms possible. Low 63-70.
Wednesday: More clouds than sun with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected. High 72-79.
Thursday: Partly sunny with another round of showers and thunderstorms, mainly late in the day and into the evening. High 79-86.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, not as humid, just a slight chance for another shower or thunderstorm. High 78-85.
A drier and quieter weather pattern will be in place through the weekend.
Dewpoints will drop into the 50s and lower 60s across the region on Friday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
High pressure builds in for Friday and only slowly moves eastward, pushing offshore by the end of the weekend. That means we’ll stay dry into at least Sunday and likely Monday. A weak disturbance will bring in some clouds on Saturday, but any shower activity should remain well north and west of our area. While temperatures will remain seasonably warm, humidity levels will drop for Friday and Saturday, but then start to slowly creep up again for Sunday and Monday. A weak frontal boundary will try to drop down from the north later Sunday and Monday with a few more clouds, but it doesn’t look like it will make it through, and there probably won’t be any shower activity associated with it aside from possibly a stray shower or two Monday afternoon.
Temperatures this weekend will be near to a little above normal. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Thursday night: Skies become clear, less humid. Low 59-66, maybe a little warmer across Cape Cod.
Friday: Sunshine and just a few stray clouds. High 79-86.
Friday night: Clear skies, some clouds start to filter in late at night. Low 60-67, a little warmer across Cape Cod.
Saturday: Partly sunny. High 81-88.
Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Low 63-70.
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 83-90.
Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 61-68.
Monday: Partly sunny, a little more humid, slight chance for a pop-up shower. High 83-90.
Hot and humid weather continues for the first half of the week, but some relief is on the way.
Heat Advisories are in effect for a large portion of the region into Wednesday. Images provided by the National Weather Service in Norton.
A Bermuda High remains anchored offshore, with southwest winds around the high continuing to pump hot and humid weather into the region into Wednesday. Daytime highs will likely top 90 away from the South Coast, and when the humidity is factored in, it will feel like it is near or over 100 degrees during the hottest part of the afternoon. Heat Advisories have been posted for the region as a result. Try to stay indoors if you can, and take precautions if you will be outside, including wearing sunscreen, seeking shade as much as possible, and drinking plenty of liquids. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon as a pair of weak disturbances cross the region, but these will likely not be that widespread. If you do get caught under one, heavy downpours and gusty winds are the biggest threats.
The heat index will be near or over 100 across much of the region Tuesday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.
A cold front will move in on Wednesday, with more widespread showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it Wednesday afternoon and night. Some of the storms could be quite strong, with strong winds and heavy downpours the main threats once again. Once the front moves through at night, much drier air settles in for the end of the week and the weekend. Instead of dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s, we’ll see dewpoints in the 50s, maybe even upper 40s, and air temperatures will be in the 80s during the day, and 60s possibly upper 50s at night, so you’ll be able to give the air conditioner a break and open the windows. We may start to warm up again by the end of the weekend as high pressure slides offshore.
Dewpoints will drop into the upper 40s and 50s as much drier air settles in on Thursday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Monday: Some patchy fog early, otherwise sunshine and some afternoon clouds, chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 89-96, cooler along the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Monday night: Any showers or storms end in the evening, otherwise partly cloudy. Low 68-75.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny, a late-day shower or thunderstorm possible. High 90-97, cooler along the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy, any showers or storms end in the evening. Low 69-76.
Wednesday: Partly sunny, showers and thunderstorms likely late in the day and into the night. High 89-96, cooler along the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, not as humid. High 80-87.
Friday: Mostly sunny. High 79-86, cooler along the coast.
Hot and humid weather continues into a good chunk of next week across the region.
Dewpoints will peak in the mid 70s on Saturday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
A Bermuda High will remain anchored offshore for the next several days, with southwest winds continuing to pump very warm to hot and humid conditions into the region. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible on Friday, but a weak boundary will move in Friday night, bringing a better chance for some widespread showers and thunderstorms late Friday night into Saturday morning. Some of these storms could produce heavy rainfall, with some localized flooding possible. We’ll start to clear out late Saturday, with a drier day likely on Sunday. It’ll still be hot, and on the humid side, but not quite as humid as recent days. By Monday, humidity levels will creep back up, with a few showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon.
Many of the models are showing the potential for some heavy rainfall amounts for at least parts of the region on Saturday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 66-73.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm, a little breezy in the afternoon. High 85-92, a little cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Friday night: Becoming mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms developing after midnight. Low 68-75.
Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, some of them heavy in the morning, then skies start to clear out late in the day. High 80-87, a little cooler across Cape Cod.
Saturday night: Becoming clear. Low 65-72.
Sunday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 86-93, a little cooler across Cape Cod.
Sunday night: Clear skies. Low 66-73.
Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, a shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 87-94, a little cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
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