Quiet weather is expected for most of the upcoming week.
Much of the region could receive no rain at all this week. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
We start the week off with a weak system moving through. We’ll start the day with some sunshine, but clouds will move in this afternoon, with a few showers late in the day and tonight. After that, high pressure builds in with dry weather for most of the week. Temperatures will turn warm, especially for the second half of the week when the high is offshore. We’re not expecting any records, but much of the region may see highs in the 80s toward the end of the week. A weak front may bring in some cooler weather in during the second half of the weekend, but we’ll have a better idea on that when we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.
Mid to upper 80s Friday? Don’t take the AC out of the window just yet. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Monday: Morning sunshine, then increasing afternoon clouds, chance for a few late-day showers. High 68-75.
Monday night: Mostly cloudy with a few showers around, some clearing late at night. Low 52-59.
We’ve got some rather nice weather coming up for much of the first week of September.
Meteorological Summer will go in the books as one of the Top 10 warmest on record across much of the Northeast. Image provided by the Southeastern Regional Climate Center.
High pressure builds into the Great Lakes today and slowly moves eastward this week. That means we’ve got dry weather through at least Friday, with cool temperatures for the first half of the week, turning milder for the second half, as the high moves offshore and winds shift into the south and southwest. As we get to the end of the week, a slow-moving frontal system will approach the region, bringing an end to our extended stretch of dry weather. Showers are likely on Saturday as a frontal system makes its way into the region. A wave of low pressure may ride along the front, which could bring in some heavier rain, but it’s too early to determine whether that will happen or not. High pressure should build back in for Sunday, but how quickly we clear out will be determined by how quickly the low pressure area pulls away from the region.
Some models show the potential for a very wet Saturday around here. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Some lingering morning clouds, especially near the South Coast, then becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 72-79.
Monday night: Clear and cool. Low 46-53.
Tuesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 67-74.
Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 48-55.
Wednesday: More sunshine. High 72-79.
Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 72-79.
Friday: Partly sunny. High 72-79.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with showers likely, possibly thunderstorms. High 68-75.
Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, any lingering showers end early. High 68-75.
The final week of August could feature some active weather, but Labor Day weekend may not be that bad.
Temperatures could get well into the 80s around here on Wednesday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
We start the week off with what could be a very active day. A weak system will move across the region today, but with a warm and humid airmass present, and some cooler air aloft thanks to a nearby upper-level low pressure system, we’ve got the ingredients in place for showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe this afternoon. Activity should begin to develop towards midday, and become more widespread and potent as it gets into our region. Some of the storms that develop could produce strong to damaging winds, hail, and heavy downpours. Once we get past sunset, activity should diminish and dissipate.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.
High pressure briefly builds in for Tuesday with some sunshine and mild temperatures, but it won’t last too long. Another cold front moves in on Wednesday. How warm we get will depend on the timing of the front, but the potential exists for a very warm and humid day, if the front holds off long enough. The front will be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be strong, again depending on the timing of the front.
Another round of severe storms is possible on Wednesday. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.
Once that front moves through, high pressure builds in with cooler and drier weather for Thursday and Friday. Another system will move in during the weekend with a few showers and thunderstorms possible late Saturday or early Sunday. Behind that front, high pressure returns with sunshine and warm temperatures later Sunday and Labor Day. Another cold front may move in late in the day on Labor Day, with a few showers or thunderstorms possible, but don’t go cancelling any plans just yet. We’ll have a better idea on the timing of that front when we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.
Showers and thunderstorms could move in late Saturday or wait until Saturday night – the models don’t agree on the timing right now. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: A little fog early, otherwise some morning sun, then clouds move in with showers and thunderstorms develop, some could be strong to severe. High 74-81.
Monday night: Showers and storms end in the evening, becoming partly cloudy, patchy fog develops. Low 57-64.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 77-84.
Tuesday night: Clear during the evening, some clouds move in after midnight, showers possible toward daybreak. Low 61-68.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and humid with showers and thunderstorms likely. High 82-89.
Thursday: Morning clouds, then gradual clearing and less humid. High 68-75.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 69-76.
Saturday: More clouds than sun, chance for some late-day showers. High 73-80.
Sunday: Any showers end early, becoming partly sunny. High 76-83.
Labor Day: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a late-day shower or thunderstorm. High 75-82.
That line from “Time Stand Still” by Rush, often describes late August or September around here, and it will for at least part of this week.
Temperatures will be below normal for the next several days. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
We’re starting the week off with a slow-moving cold front making its way across the region, resulting in aa fairly damp Monday with occasional showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. The front moves offshore early Tuesday, with showers coming to an end, and some clearing behind the front by late in the day as high pressure starts to build in. However, an upper-level low pressure system will then settle into the Northeast for Wednesday and Thursday. As a result, both days will start off with some sunshine, then clouds will develop, with a few showers possible each afternoon. Temperatures will be quite cool, with many places likely staying in the 60s for highs. We could even see a few of the normally cooler locations drop into the 40s at night. As the upper low moves out and high pressure slides offshore, we’ll start to warm up for the end of the week and the weekend, with temperatures getting back to near to above normal levels. Another system could move in by the end of the weekend with some unsettled weather, but the more likely scenario is that it holds off until the start of next week.
There may be some downpours today, but most of the models do not show significant rainfall for our area. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Hurricane Ernesto will continue to generate large swells at the beaches for a few more days, so use caution if you have plans near the coast. As of 11pm Sunday, Ernesto was centered about 435 south-southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia, moving off toward the north-northeast at 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 80 mph. Ernesto is expected to turn more toward the northeast and east-northeast today, passing south of Newfoundland tonight as it becomes extratropical.
Ernesto will continue to generate large waves in the North Atlantic for a few more days. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com
Finally, we’d like to acknowledge that today marks the 33rd anniversary of Hurricane Bob making landfall along the South Coast. We’ve had some close calls in the years since then, but have not had a hurricane make landfall in New England or Long Island since Bob. This is the 2nd longest landfall drought on record for the region. Since 1851, 18 hurricanes have made landfall in this area, or one every 9.6 years, so we are very overdue. Of the 18 hurricanes that made landfall in New England or Long Island since 1851, 15 of them have done so between August 19 and September 27, so this is the time of year that we need to be especially vigilant, though the Atlantic looks to remain quiet for at least the next week or so.
Track of Hurricane Bob, August 16-19, 1991. Image provided by the National Weather Service.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with occasional showers, a rumble or two of thunder, and a few breaks of sunshine. High 74-81.
Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a few more showers. Low 57-64.
Tuesday: Any lingering showers end early, some clearing develops late in the day. High 67-74.
Tuesday night: Becoming clear. Low 50-57.
Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few showers. High 65-72.
Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, chance for a shower or two. High 67-74.
If you picked this week to take a vacation, then you’re in luck, because most of the week will feature some fantastic mid-August weather.
Temperatures this week will be pretty close to where they should be in mid-August. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Most of the week will feature seasonably warm temperatures, moderate humidity, and dry weather, with high pressure in control. There are a few exceptions though. One of them is today, when a weak upper-level disturbance moves across the Northeast. It will generate a few more clouds, and possibly a few showers, but they shouldn’t be too widespread. Thursday will be similar with another disturbance generating a few pop-up showers, but again, nothing to cancel outdoor plans over. The weekend is when things become a little more uncertain. A cold front will be moving in from the west. Saturday should be another dry, but likely warm and a bit more humid, day. Sunday, however, may not be as nice, depending on the timing of the front. We could see more clouds and a better chance for showers and thunderstorms, though at least one model delays the front until the beginning of next week, so there’s a chance Sunday could end up dry as well.
Sunday may feature showers or thunderstorms, or maybe it won’t. Depends which model your trust. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Finally, we’ll touch on the tropics. The hype train is already rolling down the tracks about “soon-to-be Ernesto”, and the threat is presents to the East Coast. Well, that’s not exactly the case. Yes, a couple of models a few days ago showed the potential for the storm to threaten the East Coast in about 10 days, but as of now, there is no actual storm to begin with. Sunday evening, the National Hurricane Centered designated the system as “Potential Tropical Cylone Five”. It still has a broad circulation, but it could become a tropical depression later today, assuming it can develop a low-level circulation. Conditions are not that favorable at the moment, but should become more conducive for development later today and Tuesday. The forecast calls for it to cross the Leeward Islands on Tuesday, then across the Virgin Islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, before turning northwestward and then northward. Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the Leeward Islands and the British and US Virgin Islands as well as Puerto Rico. The forecasts calls for it to become a hurricane toward the middle of the week, and with additional strengthening possible, it could become a significant threat to Bermuda by next weekend. Of course, a lot can change between now and then, but at this point, the threat to the East Coast is minimal, despite all the recent hype. We’ll go into more detail on this system in a separate blog post once it has actually developed.
Forecast track for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Monday: A sunny start, then some clouds move in with a few showers possible in the afternoon. High 75-82.
Monday night: Any lingering showers end in the evening, then skies become clear. Low 56-63.
Tuesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 77-84.
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 58-65.
Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 78-85.
Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few showers. High 76-83.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 77-84.
Saturday: Partly sunny, a little more humid, chance for some late-day showers. High 76-83.
Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. High 74-81.
A much cooler and wetter week is upcoming for the region.
Some models show the potential for a significant amount of rain Tuesday and Wednesday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
We’ve got one more hot and humid day today with high pressure offshore, but big changes are on the way. A cold front will move in tonight, possibly accompanied by some showers and thunderstorms. The front is expected to stall out near or just south of us on Tuesday, with much cooler weather likely behind it. Some additional showers are likely during the day on Tuesday. A wave of low pressure riding along the front will bring in some rain for Tuesday night and Wednesday, possibly some heavy rain, especially south of the Mass Pike. Despite how wet it has been around here for the past year or more, we’ve actually been rather dry for the past month or two, and can use the rain, though maybe not all at once. High pressure briefly brings in drier air for Wednesday night and part of Thursday before Debby impacts the region.
By Friday evening, there is a more than 1000 mile spread in the Ensemble members for the location of Debby. Image provided by Tomer Burg.
As of 2am, Hurricane Debby was centered only 40 miles west of Cedar Key, Florida, moving toward the north at 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 80 mph. By the time most of you read this, Debby will have already made landfall in the Florida Big Bend region. Storm surge flooding will gradually die down this morning, and winds will steadily weaken, but rain will continue across the Southeast for several days, with widespread significant flooding likely from northern Florida into the Carolinas. Once inland, Debby is likely to stall out as steering currents collapse, and meander around in the Southeast, resulting in all of that rainfall. While Debby is doing that, some of the moisture from it will get drawn northward, interacting with that stalled frontal system, bringing us some rain for Friday and Saturday. In fact, we could be looking at quite a bit of rain. The wildcard is Debby itself. Some models have Debby dissipate across the Southeast, some bring it back offshore then into the Carolinas before heading up the coast in a weakened state, and some keep it inland and weak, then bring it up here. If it gets up here, there is even more uncertainty, as some models bring what’s left of the circulation right across southern New England, some bring it south of New England, while strengthening as it becomes extratropical, which introduces even more issues here, including gusty winds, not to mention temperature forecasts depending on the where the storm tracks. What you see below is our “best guest-imate” right now, but obviously this is very low confidence based on everything we just mentioned. A cold front will move through Saturday night, kicking whatever is left of Debby out to sea, and bringing drier weather in for Sunday.
Depending on Debby’s track, parts of the region could receive more heavy rain Friday and Saturday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Mostly sunny, clouds start to increase late in the day. High 85-92, little cooler across Cape Cod.
Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with showers likely. Low 65-72.
Tuesday: More clouds than sun, any showers end early, possibly redevelop towards evening. High 72-79, early, cooler in the afternoon.
Unsettled weather returns this week, but that doesn’t mean any of the days will be a washout.
Showers should taper off this morning, but a few are still possible through the evening. Loop provided by WeatherBell.
A weak low pressure system will pull away from the region today, with any lingering showers coming to an end, and some sunny breaks developing. We could see a few more showers and thunderstorms pop up during the afternoon, but they’ll likely be few and far between. After that, the Bermuda High sets up shop offshore once again, with humidity levels increasing, and temperatures following suit later in the week. We’ll have a series of weak upper-level disturbances also scooting across the Northeast, and these will help to trigger some pop-up showers and thunderstorms each afternoon right through the week. Once of these disturbances may be a little stronger than the others when it moves through on Wednesday, which could lead to some stronger storms, with heavy downpours and strong winds possible in some of them. By the end of the week, temperatures may top 90 again in some areas, accompanied by high humidity, resulting in heat indices well into the 90s or even higher.
Temperatures could top 90 later this week. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Just a quick note about the tropics as well. After Beryl made landfall in Texas, it’s been rather quiet for a few weeks, but that may be changing. A tropical wave crossing the Atlantic may interact with another disturbance as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. There is some potential for this system to develop into a tropical depression later this week. One of the forecast models has been rather insistent on the development of this system, and not only that, it tries to make it a threat to the East Coast. This is just one model, and most of the others do not show this scenario. Of course, this hasn’t stopped the Facebook Forecasters from cranking up the hype machine already. The odds that this system will be a threat up here are extremely tiny at this point in time. We won’t say they are zero, but for now, it’s roughly the same odds that the USA Basketball team doesn’t win a medal at the Olympics. Still, it’s looking like the next couple of months will be rather active, and we are extremely overdue for a hurricane to come calling, so we’ll be keeping a close eye on things for you and will let you know if there is a storm we actually need to be concerned about.
After a 3-week slumber, the Atlantic could be waking up again. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Monday: Plenty of clouds with showers early, some afternoon sunny breaks with another shower or thunderstorm possible, humid. High 71-78.
Monday night: Any lingering showers end in the evening, otherwise partly cloudy, areas of patchy fog may develop. Low 62-69.
Tuesday: Partly sunny, slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 81-88.
Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 66-73.
Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine with scattered showers and thunderstorms, a few could produce heavy downpours and gusty winds. High 76-83.
Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a pop-up shower or thunderstorm. High 82-89.
Friday: Partly sunny, some late-day showers or thunderstorms are possible. High 84-91.
Saturday: Partly sunny, chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 84-91.
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 83-90.
The humidity is back, but the heat will hold off for at least a few days.
Wednesday could end up as a rather cool day across the region. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
A warm front lifts northward across the region today, allowing warm and humid weather to return, with some showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. Another front will remain stalled out near the South Coast, and as waves of low pressure ride along the front, they’ll bring in a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms between Monday night and Thursday. Any storms that do form could produce some heavy downpours, which could lead to some flash flooding in spots, as well as some gusty winds. It’s actually been a little dry for the past month or so, so your lawn might welcome the rain, even if you don’t. With the cloudcover and rainfall, temperatures will be cooler, likely in the 70s and lower 80s for Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday night, a stronger cold front will move through with another round of showers and thunderstorms likely ahead of it. High pressure builds in behind the front for Friday and next weekend with some drier air, but it will turn even warmer, with 90-degree readings possible once again.
A little dryness is showing up across parts of northern Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire recently. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center
Monday: Partly sunny, a late-day shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 81-88.
Monday night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 63-70.
Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, chance for a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly early and again late in the day. High 75-82.
Tuesday night: Plenty of clouds with a few showers and thunderstorms possible. Low 63-70.
Wednesday: More clouds than sun with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected. High 72-79.
Thursday: Partly sunny with another round of showers and thunderstorms, mainly late in the day and into the evening. High 79-86.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, not as humid, just a slight chance for another shower or thunderstorm. High 78-85.
Hot and humid weather continues for the first half of the week, but some relief is on the way.
Heat Advisories are in effect for a large portion of the region into Wednesday. Images provided by the National Weather Service in Norton.
A Bermuda High remains anchored offshore, with southwest winds around the high continuing to pump hot and humid weather into the region into Wednesday. Daytime highs will likely top 90 away from the South Coast, and when the humidity is factored in, it will feel like it is near or over 100 degrees during the hottest part of the afternoon. Heat Advisories have been posted for the region as a result. Try to stay indoors if you can, and take precautions if you will be outside, including wearing sunscreen, seeking shade as much as possible, and drinking plenty of liquids. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon as a pair of weak disturbances cross the region, but these will likely not be that widespread. If you do get caught under one, heavy downpours and gusty winds are the biggest threats.
The heat index will be near or over 100 across much of the region Tuesday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.
A cold front will move in on Wednesday, with more widespread showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it Wednesday afternoon and night. Some of the storms could be quite strong, with strong winds and heavy downpours the main threats once again. Once the front moves through at night, much drier air settles in for the end of the week and the weekend. Instead of dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s, we’ll see dewpoints in the 50s, maybe even upper 40s, and air temperatures will be in the 80s during the day, and 60s possibly upper 50s at night, so you’ll be able to give the air conditioner a break and open the windows. We may start to warm up again by the end of the weekend as high pressure slides offshore.
Dewpoints will drop into the upper 40s and 50s as much drier air settles in on Thursday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Monday: Some patchy fog early, otherwise sunshine and some afternoon clouds, chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 89-96, cooler along the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Monday night: Any showers or storms end in the evening, otherwise partly cloudy. Low 68-75.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny, a late-day shower or thunderstorm possible. High 90-97, cooler along the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy, any showers or storms end in the evening. Low 69-76.
Wednesday: Partly sunny, showers and thunderstorms likely late in the day and into the night. High 89-96, cooler along the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, not as humid. High 80-87.
Friday: Mostly sunny. High 79-86, cooler along the coast.
The humidity is going to stick around for most of the week, with heat to start the week as well.
Thursday looks like the day the humidity peaks with dewpoints well into the 70s. Image provided by WeatherBell.
We start the week off with very warm to hot and humid conditions across the region for Monday and Tuesday thanks to a Bermuda high. Southwest winds will pump the heat and humidity in, though it will act as a seabreeze along the South Coast. Away from the South Coast we’re looking at temperatures well into the 80s and lower 90s, with dewpoints likely in the lower to middle 70s. As a result, the heat index will be near or over 100 during the next few afternoons. A Heat Advisory is in effect for Monday and Tuesday for parts of the region, and it will likely get expanded to not only include more of the region, but extended into Wednesday as well. A few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms may pop up Tuesday afternoon, but most of the region should remain dry. A weak frontal boundary drops in on Wednesday, but we’ll likely stay quite warm and humid with the boundary north of us, but it will help to trigger more showers and thunderstorms, especially north of the Mass Pike. That front will hang around for much of the remainder of the week, giving us more cloudcover, which will keep temperatures a little lower, but also better chances for showers and thunderstorms each day, especially Thursday and Friday, when what’s left of Beryl passes by, likely to our north and west. With a humid airmass in place, any of the thunderstorms may produce some heavy downpours each afternoon, especially when Beryl’s remains pass by. While not everyone will get hit each day, by the end of the week, it wouldn’t be a surprise if some spots had picked up anywhere from 3 to 5 inches of rain. At some point during the weekend, that boundary may sag southward, bringing in some slightly drier air, and limiting the shower and thunderstorm activity, though when, or if, that occurs, is still a question mark.
Some models show the potential for quite a bit of rain in parts of the region this week. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 87-94, cooler along the coast.
Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, areas of fog near the South Coast. Low 67-74.
Tuesday: Partly sunny, slight chance for an afternoon shower. High 86-93, cooler along the South Coast.
Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, again, some fog possible near the South Coast. Low 68-75.
Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sun, some afternoon showers or thunderstorms likely, especially north of the Mass Pike. High 83-90, cooler right along the South Coast.
Thursday: Partly sunny, a few showers and thunderstorms possible, again mostly north of the Mass Pike. High 80-87.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds with more showers and thunderstorms around. High 83-90.
Saturday: Partly sunny, chance for a few additional showers and thunderstorms, mostly south of the Mass Pike. High 81-88.
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 84-91.
Storm HQ 