We’re flipping the calendar to October, but it will remain fairly mild around here this week and pretty active in the tropics.

The week starts off with high pressure in control, keeping us dry and seasonably cool, but sunshine will be limited. The combination of east to northeast winds off the Atlantic and high clouds streaming in from what’s left of Helene will result in gray skies for the most part, with a little fog developing each morning as well. A cold front moves in on Wednesday, but it will only be accompanied by a few showers, so much of the region may remain dry once again, but temperatures should turn milder with southwest winds ahead of the front. High pressure builds in behind the front with clearing and mild temperatures for Thursday and Friday. Another cold front will move early in the weekend with some more showers, then high pressure returns for the end of the weekend.

As for the tropics, we have three active systems right now, and another could be on the way. Tropical Storm Isaac was centered about 515 miles north-northwest of the Azores as of 5am Monday, moving toward the east-northeast at 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds were down to 65mph. Isaac should become extratropical later today while heading northeastward over the open waters of the North Atlantic. Tropical Depression Joyce is centered about 910 miles east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving toward the west at 2mph. Maximum sustained winds were down to 35 mph, and the storm is expected to turn northward and dissipate over open water in the next day or two. Tropical Depression 12 is centered about 690 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving toward the west at 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph. The system should quickly strengthen, becoming a tropical storm later today, and a hurricane in the next couple of days. It could become a rather potent storm later this week, but it should turn more toward the northwest, not impacting any land areas at all.

There are two other areas we’re keeping an eye on this week. The first is the western Caribbean, where there is a mass of disorganized showers and thunderstorms this morning, but forecast models show the potential for them to organize into a system over the next few days. Assuming it develops, it could move into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, but it’s far too early to speculate on where it may go beyond that, or how strong it might be, as there isn’t a system yet to track. The other area is a tropical wave that just moved off the west coast of Africa. There’s not much too it right now, but forecast models show the potential for it to develop as it moves westward across the Atlantic later this week.

Monday: Areas of morning fog, then intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 67-74.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with some patchy fog. Low 51-58.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy. High 62-69.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 49-56.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a shower. High 62-69.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 68-75.

Friday: Partly sunny, showers possible at night. High 71-78.

Saturday: Chance for morning showers, then becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 66-73.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 60-67.

Sunday was the first day of fall, and we’ll have some fall weather for most of the upcoming week.

The low pressure system that brought all the rain and cool weather to the region over the weekend has drifted off to the south, and high pressure has built in from the north, which will bring us some drier weather for the next few days. However, the flow in between the two systems will result in northeast winds, keeping us cool, while also keeping some clouds around. By Wednesday, we’ll see a frontal system start to approach from the west, bringing more clouds in. It looks like most of the rain should hold off until night time, so Wednesday should be another dry day. That system will be a slow mover though, so another wet day is likely on Thursday. High pressure builds in for Friday and the weekend with drier air, but it’s not as simple as that may sound.

A tropical system is likely to develop in the Gulf of Mexico over the next day or two, and forecast models show it becoming a formidable system before landfall somewhere between New Orleans and Tampa later this week. Once inland, it will rapidly weaken, but the moisture from it will stream northward. Some models have the high pressure area block that moisture from getting up here, while other models have it get close, possibly to the South Coast, before the high blocks any farther progress northward. So, for now, our forecast is for dry weather next weekend, but that could change by the time we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

Monday: More clouds than sunshine, breezy near the coast. High 60-67.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 48-55.

Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sun, breezy near the coast. High 61-68.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 50-57.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds, slight chance for a shower during the day, more likely at night. High 62-69.

Thursday: Cloudy with showers likely, ending late in the day. High 64-71.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 67-74.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 65-72.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 67-74.

“Summer’s going fast, nights growing colder.”

That line from “Time Stand Still” by Rush, often describes late August or September around here, and it will for at least part of this week.

We’re starting the week off with a slow-moving cold front making its way across the region, resulting in aa fairly damp Monday with occasional showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. The front moves offshore early Tuesday, with showers coming to an end, and some clearing behind the front by late in the day as high pressure starts to build in. However, an upper-level low pressure system will then settle into the Northeast for Wednesday and Thursday. As a result, both days will start off with some sunshine, then clouds will develop, with a few showers possible each afternoon. Temperatures will be quite cool, with many places likely staying in the 60s for highs. We could even see a few of the normally cooler locations drop into the 40s at night. As the upper low moves out and high pressure slides offshore, we’ll start to warm up for the end of the week and the weekend, with temperatures getting back to near to above normal levels. Another system could move in by the end of the weekend with some unsettled weather, but the more likely scenario is that it holds off until the start of next week.

Hurricane Ernesto will continue to generate large swells at the beaches for a few more days, so use caution if you have plans near the coast. As of 11pm Sunday, Ernesto was centered about 435 south-southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia, moving off toward the north-northeast at 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 80 mph. Ernesto is expected to turn more toward the northeast and east-northeast today, passing south of Newfoundland tonight as it becomes extratropical.

Finally, we’d like to acknowledge that today marks the 33rd anniversary of Hurricane Bob making landfall along the South Coast. We’ve had some close calls in the years since then, but have not had a hurricane make landfall in New England or Long Island since Bob. This is the 2nd longest landfall drought on record for the region. Since 1851, 18 hurricanes have made landfall in this area, or one every 9.6 years, so we are very overdue. Of the 18 hurricanes that made landfall in New England or Long Island since 1851, 15 of them have done so between August 19 and September 27, so this is the time of year that we need to be especially vigilant, though the Atlantic looks to remain quiet for at least the next week or so.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with occasional showers, a rumble or two of thunder, and a few breaks of sunshine. High 74-81.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a few more showers. Low 57-64.

Tuesday: Any lingering showers end early, some clearing develops late in the day. High 67-74.

Tuesday night: Becoming clear. Low 50-57.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few showers. High 65-72.

Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, chance for a shower or two. High 67-74.

Friday: Mostly sunny. High 73-80.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 77-84.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 78-85.

If you picked this week to take a vacation, then you’re in luck, because most of the week will feature some fantastic mid-August weather.

Most of the week will feature seasonably warm temperatures, moderate humidity, and dry weather, with high pressure in control. There are a few exceptions though. One of them is today, when a weak upper-level disturbance moves across the Northeast. It will generate a few more clouds, and possibly a few showers, but they shouldn’t be too widespread. Thursday will be similar with another disturbance generating a few pop-up showers, but again, nothing to cancel outdoor plans over. The weekend is when things become a little more uncertain. A cold front will be moving in from the west. Saturday should be another dry, but likely warm and a bit more humid, day. Sunday, however, may not be as nice, depending on the timing of the front. We could see more clouds and a better chance for showers and thunderstorms, though at least one model delays the front until the beginning of next week, so there’s a chance Sunday could end up dry as well.

Finally, we’ll touch on the tropics. The hype train is already rolling down the tracks about “soon-to-be Ernesto”, and the threat is presents to the East Coast. Well, that’s not exactly the case. Yes, a couple of models a few days ago showed the potential for the storm to threaten the East Coast in about 10 days, but as of now, there is no actual storm to begin with. Sunday evening, the National Hurricane Centered designated the system as “Potential Tropical Cylone Five”. It still has a broad circulation, but it could become a tropical depression later today, assuming it can develop a low-level circulation. Conditions are not that favorable at the moment, but should become more conducive for development later today and Tuesday. The forecast calls for it to cross the Leeward Islands on Tuesday, then across the Virgin Islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, before turning northwestward and then northward. Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the Leeward Islands and the British and US Virgin Islands as well as Puerto Rico. The forecasts calls for it to become a hurricane toward the middle of the week, and with additional strengthening possible, it could become a significant threat to Bermuda by next weekend. Of course, a lot can change between now and then, but at this point, the threat to the East Coast is minimal, despite all the recent hype. We’ll go into more detail on this system in a separate blog post once it has actually developed.

Monday: A sunny start, then some clouds move in with a few showers possible in the afternoon. High 75-82.

Monday night: Any lingering showers end in the evening, then skies become clear. Low 56-63.

Tuesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 77-84.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 58-65.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 78-85.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few showers. High 76-83.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 77-84.

Saturday: Partly sunny, a little more humid, chance for some late-day showers. High 76-83.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. High 74-81.

Unsettled weather returns this week, but that doesn’t mean any of the days will be a washout.

A weak low pressure system will pull away from the region today, with any lingering showers coming to an end, and some sunny breaks developing. We could see a few more showers and thunderstorms pop up during the afternoon, but they’ll likely be few and far between. After that, the Bermuda High sets up shop offshore once again, with humidity levels increasing, and temperatures following suit later in the week. We’ll have a series of weak upper-level disturbances also scooting across the Northeast, and these will help to trigger some pop-up showers and thunderstorms each afternoon right through the week. Once of these disturbances may be a little stronger than the others when it moves through on Wednesday, which could lead to some stronger storms, with heavy downpours and strong winds possible in some of them. By the end of the week, temperatures may top 90 again in some areas, accompanied by high humidity, resulting in heat indices well into the 90s or even higher.

Just a quick note about the tropics as well. After Beryl made landfall in Texas, it’s been rather quiet for a few weeks, but that may be changing. A tropical wave crossing the Atlantic may interact with another disturbance as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. There is some potential for this system to develop into a tropical depression later this week. One of the forecast models has been rather insistent on the development of this system, and not only that, it tries to make it a threat to the East Coast. This is just one model, and most of the others do not show this scenario. Of course, this hasn’t stopped the Facebook Forecasters from cranking up the hype machine already. The odds that this system will be a threat up here are extremely tiny at this point in time. We won’t say they are zero, but for now, it’s roughly the same odds that the USA Basketball team doesn’t win a medal at the Olympics. Still, it’s looking like the next couple of months will be rather active, and we are extremely overdue for a hurricane to come calling, so we’ll be keeping a close eye on things for you and will let you know if there is a storm we actually need to be concerned about.

Monday: Plenty of clouds with showers early, some afternoon sunny breaks with another shower or thunderstorm possible, humid. High 71-78.

Monday night: Any lingering showers end in the evening, otherwise partly cloudy, areas of patchy fog may develop. Low 62-69.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 81-88.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 66-73.

Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine with scattered showers and thunderstorms, a few could produce heavy downpours and gusty winds. High 76-83.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a pop-up shower or thunderstorm. High 82-89.

Friday: Partly sunny, some late-day showers or thunderstorms are possible. High 84-91.

Saturday: Partly sunny, chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 84-91.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 83-90.