Weekly Outlook: July 31-August 6, 2023

After one of the wettest Julys on record, we’ve got an extended stretch of dry weather to start August.

It has been an extraordinarily wet July across the Northeast. Images provided by WeatherBell.

A weak cold front will cross the region today, generating some clouds and possibly a few showers this afternoon, otherwise, high pressure will be in control through Thursday, with sunshine, cool temperatures and, lower humidity levels. Yes, you can turn off the air conditioning and open the windows for the next several days and save on that electric bill. By the end of the week, another upper-level low will drop into the Great Lakes, while at the surface, a low pressure area moves into southeastern Canada, dragging a cold front across the region. The result will be some showers and thunderstorms on Friday and early Saturday, with some heavy rain possible. High pressure builds back in for later Saturday and Sunday with drier weather.

Some of the models show the potential for some heavy rain around here Friday into Saturday. Images provide by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Morning sun with some afternoon clouds and a few showers or thunderstorms. High 75-82.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 55-62.

Tuesday: Sunshine with some afternoon clouds again. High 73-80.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 52-59.

Wednesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 72-79.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 75-82.

Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy and breezy with showers and thunderstorms developing. High 74-81.

Saturday: Showers end early, becoming partly sunny. High 75-82.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 77-84.

After a bit of a lull, we may have some activity in the Atlantic over the next couple of days. Images provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Finally, a quick note on the tropics. The potential exists for two named tropical systems to develop in the Atlantic over the next 24-48 hours, but neither of them will be a threat to any land areas. A tropical wave and associated area of low pressure has been slowly organizing as it made its way across the Atlantic over the past week. Conditions are favorite for some additional development as the storm turns toward the north well east of the Lesser Antilles today. It should head northward and then eventually northeastward, likely become a tropical depression and quite possibly a tropical storm over the next couple of days. It could eventually become a potent extratropical system as it heads toward the British Isles at the end of the week. There’s also a system off the North Carolina coast. This system produced heavy rain across parts of Florida and the Southeast over the past few days, and now that it is offshore again and over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, it has a small window where it could become a tropical depression or tropical storm today before it merges with a frontal system and races northeastward over the open waters of the Atlantic. If either system does develop, we’ll have another post on Monday talking about the tropics around the world, as the Atlantic isn’t the only place with tropical activity at the moment.

Weekly Outlook: July 24-30, 2023

It’s been a very wet July across most of the region, but this week will be drier, but also warmer.

Temperatures have been 2-4 degrees above normal across the Northeast this month and even warmer weather is expected this week. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

We start the week off with high pressure keeping the region dry and warm, but a weak upper-level trough of low pressure remains in place across the southeastern Canada. As little disturbances rotate around that trough, we may see a few showers and thunderstorms pop up each afternoon, but they’ll be widely scattered, and mainly across the interior. For most of us, it’ll just be partly to mostly sunny, quite warm, and not that humid for Monday and Tuesday. During the latter half of the week, both temperatures and humidity levels will be on the rise, with a couple of hot days expected for Thursday and Friday. Beyond that, a cold front will be dropping down from Canada, producing some showers and thunderstorms late Friday into early Saturday. The question is, when does the front actually move through? That’ll be the difference between another hot and humid day on Saturday or a cooler and drier day. By Sunday, the cooler and drier air should finally settle into most of the region.

Saturday could be either warm or hot, depending on which model you trust. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Sunshine filtered through some high clouds, slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, mainly well north and west of Boston. High 82-89.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 64-71.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, a few showers and thunderstorms develop in the afternoon. High 81-88.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 63-70.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, just a very slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 84-91.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, a few showers and thunderstorms possible during the afternoon and evening. High 87-94.

Friday: Partly sunny, some showers and thunderstorms possible at night. High 88-95.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly early. High 82-82.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 75-82.

Weekly Outlook: July 17-23, 2024

Yup, we’re still stuck in the same pattern we’ve been in for a while now, with an upper-level low sitting near the Great Lakes. Some days will be like yesterday – wet (or very wet), and some will be like today (dry), but there’s no persistent heat on the way.

Upper Air analysis shows our persistent upper-level low centered over Lake Superior, while a rather robust ridge over Arizona is helping to bake the Southwest. Image provided by NOAA.

After an extraordinarily wet day on Sunday, we’ll dry out today as high pressure builds in. It’ll still be warm and humid, but we’re not expecting any rain. Another frontal system will move toward the region on Tuesday, with another round of showers and thunderstorms expected during the afternoon and evening. A few of these storms may produce downpours, but for now, we’re not expecting a repeat on Sunday. High pressure returns with drier weather on Wednesday, then another system brings in more showers and thunderstorms later Thursday into Friday. Again, some downpours are possible, but a widespread heavy rain event doesn’t appear likely at this time Once that system moves out, drier air should move in for the weekend. This would be a welcome change from the past several weekends, which all seemed to feature some rain, but don’t consider it a lock just yet. It’s a week away and things can change.

The rain this week shouldn’t be as heavy as Sunday was, but there is still the potential for some locally heavy downpours. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Becoming mostly sunny. High 83-90.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 66-73.

Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sun, showers and thunderstorms develop in the afternoon. High 82-89.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers and storms end before midnight. Low 65-72.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 80-87.

Thursday: Partly sunny, showers and thunderstorms move in late in the day, continuing at night. High 77-84.

Friday: Showers end in the morning, some clearing in the afternoon. High 77-84.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 77-84.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 79-86.

Weekly Outlook: July 10-16, 2023

Stop us if you’ve heard this before – we’ll be dealing with upper-level lows and upper-level troughs of low pressure again this week, with more rain on the way.

There is a moderate risk for excessive rainfall across much of the interior today. Image provided by Iowa State University’s Iowa Environmental Mesonet.

A frontal system will move into the region today while a wave of low pressure rides up along it. This system produced extraordinarily heavy rain across western New England and eastern New York yesterday. While we’ll have some of that heavy and thunderstorms moving in today, it shouldn’t be anywhere near the magnitude of what they experienced across the Hudson and Connecticut Valleys yesterday, where as much as 5-10 inches of rain caused widespread severe flooding. Some of the thunderstorms that move through may also produce gusty winds, but heavy rain remains the most significant threat.

The heaviest rain will fall across western and northern New England today and tonight, but some models still show some heavy rain totals around here. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

That system will pull away on Tuesday with showers ending and some clearing, then high pressure builds in both at the surface and aloft for Wednesday. That means we’ll have sunshine and warm to hot and humid conditions – it’ll feel like summer once again. However, this dry interlude will be short-lived. Another trough of low pressure will start to move into the Midwest by Thursday, and only make very slow eastward progress through the weekend. As disturbances rotate through this upper trough, they’ll generate some showers and thunderstorms around here each afternoon from Thursday into Sunday. None of the days should be a washout, so don’t go cancelling any outdoor plans, but for now Friday and Sunday look to have the greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

One upper-level low moves across the Northeast to start the week, another drops into the Great Lakes later in the week. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Monday: Plenty of clouds with showers and thunderstorms likely, some heavy rain possible, especially across the interior. High 70-77.

Monday night: Showers taper off, some late-night clearing possible. Low 60-67.

Tuesday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny, chance for an afternoon shower. High 80-87.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 63-70.

Wednesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 85-92.

Thursday: Partly sunny, a few showers and thunderstorms around in the afternoon. High 79-86.

Friday: Intervals of clouds and sun, breezy, showers and thunderstorms likely, especially in the afternoon. High 76-83.

Saturday: Partly sunny and breezy with some showers and thunderstorms developing. High 76-83.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, more showers and thunderstorms possible. High 79-86.

Weekly Outlook: July 3-9, 2023

Our unsettled pattern will continue for a good chunk of the week, but some changes are expected.

There is a risk for severe weather across the region today. Image provided by the National Weather Service office in Norton, MA.

We start the week off with a similar pattern to what we’ve had for a while now. An upper-level trough of low pressure moving from the Great Lakes into the Northeast with a frontal system at the surface stalled out across the region. That front will trigger some showers and thunderstorms again today, a few of which could be quite strong. More heavy rain is possible with some storms, which could lead to areas of flooding, especially from northern Connecticut across central and northeastern Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire, where as much as 2-4 inches of rain fell on Sunday. The front will dissipate across the region on Tuesday, with some additional showers and thunderstorms possible, but they shouldn’t be as widespread as today, which is good news for July 4th celebrations in many locations.

Some additional heavy rainfall is expected across parts of the region today and tomorrow. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Wednesday and Thursday feature a change, as a ridge of high pressure builds in both at the surface and aloft. This means we’ll be drier and warmer, with many spots approaching 90 degrees. The change will be short-lived though, as another frontal system approaches on Friday, and slows down as it moves across the region next weekend. A wave of low pressure may ride along it while another upper-level trough moves in from the Midwest, meaning that we’re back in the humid and unsettled pattern. While some showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, none of the days should be a washout.

The combination of heat and humidity will make it feel like it’s in the lower 90s Thursday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Morning fog, then intervals of clouds and sunshine with showers and thunderstorms developing, some may be locally heavy. High 77-84, possibly a little warmer across southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, more showers and thunderstorms through the evening, tapering off overnight, areas of fog develop. Low 63-70.

Independence Day: Partly sunny with a chance for some additional showers and thunderstorms. High 76-83.

Tuesday night: Showers and storms end in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Low 62-69.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 81-88.

Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 83-90, a little cooler right at the coast.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few late-day showers and thunderstorms. High 82-89.

Saturday: Partly sunny with some showers and thunderstorms possible. High 79-86.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun with more showers and thunderstorms likely. High 77-84.

Weekend Outlook: June 30 – July 4, 2023

While the weather won’t be perfect for a long holiday weekend, it won’t be as bad as your weather app say it will be.

Believe it or not, rainfall has actually been below normal this morning for a good portion of the region. Images provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

We’ll have high pressure building in, and remaining in place through Saturday, which means drier weather and lower humidity, but it will remain warm. There’s still a slight chance for a pop-up shower Friday afternoon, but these should be few and far between. Clouds will start to move in late Saturday ahead of a slow-moving frontal system. In addition, another upper-level low will move into the Great Lakes, with disturbances riding around it. So, that means that for Sunday, Monday, and July 4th, we’re back in the same pattern we’ve been in, with higher humidity, and a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. None of the days should be a washout, but if you’ve got outdoor plans, make sure you keep an eye on the sky (or the radar), and be prepared to head inside if need be. For fireworks displays Tuesday night, most of the thunderstorm activity should diminish after sunset, but obviously, this is a little hard to pinpoint several days in advance.

Longer-range forecasts show no end to this pattern, with troughs of low pressure and/or cutoff lows continuing to drop into the Great Lakes and the Northeast. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy, some patchy fog may develop. Low 60-67.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a stray shower during the afternoon. High 78-85, coolest along the coast.

Friday night: Partly cloudy. Low 59-66.

Canada Day: Partly sunny. High 78-85, coolest along the coast.

Saturday night: Becoming mostly cloudy, chance for a few late-night showers. Low 62-69.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun with showers and thunderstorms developing, most widespread during the afternoon. High 74-81.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms tapering off during the evening. Low 63-70.

Monday: Partly sunny, showers and thunderstorms pop up during the afternoon. High 78-85.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers end in the evening. Low 63-70.

Fourth of July: Intervals of clouds and sun, showers and thunderstorms possible during the afternoon and evening. High 77-84.

Weekly Outlook: June 26 – July 2, 2023

This week’s forecast is fairly simple, because we’re stuck in the same weather pattern that we’ve been in for quite some time.

One upper-level low slowly moves through this week, another one starts to move in next weekend. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Upper-level low pressure over the Great Lakes will very slowly move eastward this week while weakening. As disturbances rotate around this low, we’ll have a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening each day. Not everyone will get these, and none of the days will be a washout, but the threat exists each day for some showers and thunderstorms. Any storms that do form will likely produce heavy downpours, as we’ll have a warm and humid airmass in place. A few strong to severe storms are possible, especially today, but for the most part, we’re just looking at your typical garden-variety thunderstorms each day. The upper low finally starts to move out next weekend, but another one drops right into the Great Lakes in its place, keeping the unsettled weather going for a few more days.

With all the cloudcover, temperatures will average a little below normal for most of the next week. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Morning fog, then intervals of clouds and sun with showers and thunderstorms developing, some could be quite strong. High 77-84, a little cooler along the coast from the North Shore to the New Hampshire Seacoast.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy, fog redevelops, a few more showers, mainly during the evening. Low 62-69.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy with some afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High 72-79.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy, showers taper off in the evening, fog likely again. Low 62-69.

Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sun, breezy, chance for a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High 73-80.

Thursday: Partly sunny, some showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 74-81.

Friday: Partly sunny, an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible. High 73-80.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sun, breezy, chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 76-83.

Sunday: More clouds than sun, breezy, more showers and thunderstorms possible. High 74-81.

Weekly Outlook: June 19-25, 2023

Astronomical summer begins at 10:57am Wednesday, and right on cue, some summer weather will move into the region by then.

Astronomical summer officially begins Wednesday morning. Image provided by Earth.com

The week starts off with yet another upper-level low in place across the Northeast, which means we’ll have plenty of clouds generated each day along with some showers during the afternoon and evening hours. Showers may continue for a good chunk of the night tonight as another disturbance rotates around that upper-level low. Temperatures will remain on the cool side for mid-June, especially near the coast, where a seabreeze is likely. By Wednesday, the upper-level low moves away, and a ridge of high pressure builds into the East Coast. As a result, we’ll turn drier and warmer, with temperatures likely getting into the 80s in many locations, possibly approaching 90, especially on Friday. With the warmth will come increasing humidity levels, especially over the weekend, and which may allow for a few thunderstorms to pop Friday afternoon. The ridge starts to break down over the weekend as a disturbance moves toward the region, likely producing some showers and thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms become a little more numerous on Sunday ahead of a cold front dropping down from the north.

Dewpoints could climb into the lower 70s around here by next Saturday. Images provided by Weathermodels.com

On a separate note, the tropics are starting to show signs of life. Aided by sea surface temperatures more reminiscent of late August than mid-June, a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa a few days ago has been slowly organizing over the weekend, Conditions are favorable for further development, and it will likely become a tropical depression at some point later today or Tuesday. Its immediate future calls for a westward track with gradual strengthening, and no threat to land for much of the upcoming week. As we get to the end of the week, that becomes more complicated. Once the storm does form, we’ll have a more detailed blog post about it, and what its future may look like.

Many of the models quickly bring the disturbance in the eastern Atlantic to hurricane strength by midweek. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Partly sunny, chance for a few showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. High 67-74, coolest along the coast.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with showers likely. Low 52-59.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, a few more showers possible, especially during the afternoon. High 66-73, coolest along the coast.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 52-59.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 70-77.

Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 77-84, coolest along the South Coast.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, slight chance for a late-day shower or thunderstorm. High 80-87, coolest along the South Coast.

Saturday: More clouds than sun, breezy, scattered showers and thunderstorms develop. High 80-87.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, more showers and thunderstorms expected. High 75-82.

Weekly Outlook: June 12-18, 2023

Another week, another upper-level low. This week shouldn’t be as gloomy as last week at least.

Average high temperatures for mid-June are in the middle 70s. Images provided by Weathermodels.com

We’re starting the week off on a mild note ahead of a cold front. Most of the day should remain dry, with plenty of clouds and some sunny break. The shower and thunderstorm activity with the front likely hods off until evening, with most of it coming through overnight tonight into Tuesday morning. We’ll see some clearing in the afternoon, but another shower or thunderstorm may pop up late in the day. The front may stall out across the region before it washes out, with cooler air making into areas north of the Mass Pike, while areas to the south remain mild once again. After that, an upper-level low pressure area settles into the Great Lakes and starts moving eastward. A disturbance rotating around that low will move in on Wednesday, generating showers and thunderstorms. If the timing works out right, some of those storms could be strong to severe during the late afternoon hours, with strong winds, hail, and heavy downpours likely. Thursday will be a bit more tranquil, but with the upper low moving in, we’ll have clouds and possibly some afternoon showers. Right now, Friday and the weekend look fairly similar, with morning sun, afternoon clouds, and possibly a few showers or thunderstorms each day.

Another upper-level low pressure system will influence our weather for much of the week. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, a few showers around in the morning across Southern New Hampshire. High 76-83, a little cooler near the South Coast.

Monday night: Plenty of clouds with showers likely, maybe a thunderstorm. Low 56-63.

Tuesday: Showers taper off around daybreak, otherwise mostly cloudy with a few sunny breaks in the afternoon. High 69-76 south of the Mass Pike, 62-69 north of the Mass Pike.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 52-59.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, showers and thunderstorms expected late in the day and into the evening. High 73-80.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for an afternoon shower. High 72-79.

Friday: Partly sunny, showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and evening. High 73-80.

Saturday: Intervals of sun and clouds, chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. High 71-78.

Sunday: Partly sunny, chance for a late-day shower or thunderstorm. High 73-80.

Weekly Outlook: June 5-11, 2023

Once again, we’re stuck in a persistent weather pattern, but unlike the recent ones that have kept us mostly dry, this one will keep us cool and damp for a good chunk of the week.

An upper-level low will meander around the Northeast and Atlantic Canada for the next several days. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

An upper-level low pressure system will hang around for much of the upcoming week, keeping temperatures on the cool side for the most part. A surface low pressure system will pull away today, with any lingering showers ending, and some breaks in the clouds are possible by late in the day. Tuesday may end up as a somewhat decent day with some sunshine and warmer temperatures, however, another disturbance will rotate around the upper-low, sending a cold front our way, triggering some showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. With cold air aloft, a few of the storms may produce some hail, but we’re not looking at a widespread severe weather event. Some additional weaker disturbances will move through between Wednesday and Friday, resulting in more clouds, some occasional showers, and cooler temperatures once again. It looks like the upper-level low will finally move out next weekend and high pressure builds in with drier and warmer weather. However, upper-level lows always seem to hang around a little longer than the models show, so, even though our forecast is for improvement, we’re a little weary that it may be a little slower to occur.

Temperatures will average 5-10 degrees below normal across the Northeast this week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Plenty of clouds with some showers, especially in the morning, some sunny breaks possible in the afternoon, breezy. High 59-66, coolest along the coast.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 47-54.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and evening. High 70-77.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. Low 48-55.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds, chance for a few showers. High 62-69.

Thursday: More clouds than sun, more showers possible. High 61-68.

Friday: Partly sunny, chance for some additional showers. High 61-68.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 69-76.

Sunday: Partly sunny, breezy. High 75-82.