Heavy Rain/Snow

Thanksgiving Weekend Outlook: November 28 – December 2, 2024

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Turkey Day is looking wet, but after that things will turn colder around here.

Below normal temperatures are expected through the holiday weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.

Low pressure will move out of the Tennessee Valley tonight and head towards Southern New England, passing near or just south of the South Coast on Thanksgiving Day. For most of us, we’ll see rain developing around daybreak, and ending in the evening, but across the hills from Worcester County into the Monadnocks of southwestern New Hampshire, some snow is likely, with a few inches possible. Across the rest of southern New Hampshire, we may see the rain start as snow in the morning, but it should quickly change to rain, with little to no accumulation. Farther north, especially north of Concord, NH, a few inches may accumulate, before a change to rain occurs. The system starts to pull away Thursday evening, with the rain ending before midnight, though we could see some flakes mix in as the rain winds down.

Any accumulating snow should stay well north and west of Boston on Thursday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

As the storm moves into Atlantic Canada, we’ll clear out for Friday with breezy and colder conditions. A few stray rain or snow showers are possible, especially across Cape Cod where the winds blowing over the still relatively mild water may generate some ocean-effect showers. Another weak disturbance moves through Friday night with just a few flurries, then even colder air settles in for the weekend and Monday. With an upper-level low over the Northeast and disturbances rotating around it, we could see a few widely scattered flurries or snow showers each day.

Wind chills will be in the teens Sunday morning. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Wednesday night: Becoming cloudy, rain may develop towards daybreak, mixed with snow well north and west of Boston. Low 29-36, temperatures may start to rise after midnight.

Thursday: Periods of rain, mixed with snow in the morning, especially from the hills of Worcester County into southern New Hampshire, becoming breezy along the coast. High 39-46 north and west of I-95 47-54 south and east of I-95.

Thursday night: Rain ending before midnight, possibly mixed with some wet snow, some clearing late at night, breezy along the coast during the evening. Low 30-37.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 40-47.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy, chance for a few rain or snow showers across Cape Cod. Low 25-32.

Saturday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, slight chance for a few flurries, especially across the Outer Cape, breezy, colder. High 37-44.

Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Low 22-29.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few flurries, breezy, chilly. High 35-42.

Sunday night: Clear skies. Low 20-27.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 34-41.

Weekly Outlook: November 24 – December 1, 2024

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We’ll get right to the point – despite the hype over the past several days, the vast majority of the region will NOT be having a White Thanksgiving. However, we are expecting more much-needed rainfall this week.

Another 1/4-1/2 inch of much-needed rain is expected on Tuesday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

We start the week off with high pressure in control, providing us with sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures. Clouds start to move in tonight as low pressure moves from the Great Lakes towards Northern New England. This system will bring us some rain Tuesday morning and afternoon, but we’re a little concerned about Tuesday morning in particular. Temperatures will cool off pretty quickly Monday evening before the clouds arrive, and by the time the rain moves in near or just after daybreak, temperatures may be near freezing across parts of southern New Hampshire. The ground remains fairly warm, but if it’s near 32 and starts to rain, there could be a little icing, especially on elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses. Temperatures should quickly rise above 32 after daybreak, but if you’re going to be out in southern New Hampshire around daybreak Tuesday, use a little extra caution, especially if the rain moves in a little earlier than currently expected. Rain ends Tuesday afternoon and we clear out at night as high pressure builds in Tuesday night. Wednesday starts off with sunshine, but clouds stream right back in during the afternoon as low pressure begins to move out of the Tennessee Valley.

The models agree the Thanksgiving will be stormy, but don’t agree on the details. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

The latest indications are that this low pressure system will pass south of New England or possibly across Cape Cod during Thanksgiving and into Friday morning. The result will likely be a rainy Turkey Day, so keep this in mind if you are traveling for the holiday. Of course, this is far from locked in, as there is still some uncertainty in the models. Some show the storm passing far enough south that it misses the region entirely. Some bring in a period of heavier rain, and some have enough cold air in place at the start that the rain may start as snow across the interior on Thanksgiving Day, before quickly changing to rain. None of the models show a major snowstorm around here any more, despite a couple of runs of the models doing so last week. One or two show some decent accumulations for ski country, but even that is far from certain at this point. We’ll have much more detail in our Weekend Outlook which will be published on Wednesday this week with the holiday on Thursday. The storm pulls away Friday morning, and there’s the possibility that the rain could change over to snow before ending across areas north and west of Boston, but again, this is far from certain at this point. Blustery and colder weather moves in behind that storm for the weekend, with a few flurries possible at times.

Bundle up if you’ll be out early Sunday morning, with wind chills in the teens. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Mostly sunny, clouds start to filter in towards evening, breezy. High 44-51.

Monday night: Becoming mostly cloudy, showers developing late at night, possibly as some freezing rain across southern New Hampshire. Low 30-37.

Tuesday: Rain likely, ending during the afternoon, some clearing late in the day. High 42-49 north of the Mass Pike, 50-57 south of the Pike.

Tuesday night: Becoming clear. Low 31-38.

Wednesday: Breezy with sunshine during the morning, then clouds start to move back in during the afternoon. High 43-50.

Thanksgiving Day: Cloudy with rain developing, possibly starting as a little wet snow across the interior. High 42-49 north and west of I-95, 50-57 south and east of I-95.

Friday: Showers ending in the morning, possibly changing to snow before ending across the interior, some clearing may develop in the afternoon. High 41-48.

Saturday: Partly sunny, breezy, colder, chance for a few flurries. High 37-44.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, chilly, chance for a few flurries. High 35-42.

Weekend Outlook: November 22-25, 2024

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Much-needed rain has finally made its way to the region, and more is coming.

Much of the region could pick up an inch or more of rain by the end of the weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

After weeks without significant rainfall, we finally had some move in today as low pressure moved south of New England. An upper-level low pressure system will move out of the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, pulling that system into New York and Pennsylvania tonight, which means the steady rain this evening will taper off to showers overnight. The upper low then moves in for Friday, and while there could be some sunny breaks in the morning, for the most part we’ll have plenty of clouds with a few showers around. With some cold air aloft, there could be a few snowflakes mixed in, especially across the higher terrain of central Massachusetts and southwestern New Hampshire. A disturbance rotating around that upper-level low will trigger a new storm system south and east of New England, bringing rain and gusty winds back in for late Friday into early Saturday, mainly across eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. If the precipitation shield can extend far enough west, the rain may change to snow across the hills of Worcester County and the Monadnocks of southern New Hampshire. That low pulls away on Saturday, but we’ll be slow to clear out, with a gusty northwest breeze keeping us on the cool side. High pressure builds in for Sunday with more sunshine, but there will still be some clouds around with the upper-level low nearby. Monday starts off with some sun, but then clouds start to move back in during the afternoon as another storm system heads this way from the Great Lakes. This will likely bring in more rain showers for Monday night and Tuesday.

Wind gusts of 30-40 mph are possible this weekend. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Rain tapers off to showers, ending overnight, some partial clearing possible late at night, breezy. Low 38-45.

Friday: Some sunshine in the morning, then clouds return with a few showers around, becoming a steadier rain late in the day across eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, possibly mixed with some wet snow across the higher terrain from central Massachusetts into southern New Hampshire. High 46-53.

Friday night: Periods of rain, mainly across eastern Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire, possibly mixed with some wet snow across the higher terrain from central Massachusetts into southern New Hampshire. Low 34-41.

Saturday: Cloudy and breezy with showers (or wet snow) ending in the morning, though there could be a few more showers around in the afternoon. High 43-50.

Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy. Low 35-42.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, windy. High 44-51.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 30-37.

Monday: Morning sun, clouds start to move back in during the afternoon. High 47-54.

Finally, since the hype train already left the station yesterday, we’ll address the possibility of a “White Thanksgiving”. Yes, a couple of models have occasionally shown the potential for a storm system next weekend. However, these models have been highly inconsistent at that range, and they vary widely on the track, strength, and timing of the potential system, and what, if any, impact it might have here. Anything from wind-swept rain to heavy snow, to a sunny but cool weekend is on tap. It’s just WAY too early to even speculate on what might happen a week from now. We’ll address it a little more in our Weekly Outlook early Monday, but even then, the details will probably still be a fuzzy. Bottom line: don’t worry about it, don’t go cancelling any Thanksgiving weekend plans, and stay tuned for further updates. If there is anything to worry about, we’ll let you know well in advance.

The models all have very different solutions for Thanksgiving Day. Images provided by Pivotal Weather,

Weekend Outlook: August 9-12, 2024

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Despite what the app on your phone says, most of the weekend will actually be rather pleasant.

What’s left of Debby will pass well north and west of us Friday night. Images provided by the National Hurricane Center.

What’s left of Debby will head northward tonight, sending a warm front across the region. Some showers may accompany it, but you’ll notice humidity levels increasing once again. Temperatures may actually rise a few degrees overnight as winds shift into the southeast and south. Ex-Debby will pass well north and west of the region Friday and Friday night, keeping us in the warm and humid side ahead of the storm. We’ll have some occasional showers during the day on Friday, but it won’t be a washout. Some steadier and potentially heavier showers are likely Friday night into early Saturday as Ex-Debby crosses northern New England and drags a cold front across our area. The showers end Saturday morning, then we’ll clear out in the afternoon, with gusty west to northwest winds ushering drier air in, though it will remain quite warm. High pressure then builds in for Sunday and Monday with sunshine, warm temperatures, and comfortable humidity levels.

There may be some heavier downpours, but for the most part, the models do not bring heavy rain into the region for Friday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Cloudy with a few showers likely. Low 60-67 during the evening, temperatures may rise a bit after midnight.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, some occasional showers at times, becoming breezy in the afternoon. High 77-84.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy, breezy, showers becoming more widespread with some heavier downpours and a few rumbles of thunder. Low 69-76.

Saturday: Breezy with showers and thunderstorms ending in the morning (early afternoon across Cape Cod), becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 81-88, a little cooler across Cape Cod.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 58-65.

Sunday: Sunshine and a few clouds, not as humid. High 76-83.

Sunday night: Clear skies. Low 58-65.

Monday: Mostly sunny. High 75-82.

Weekly Outlook: August 5-11, 2024

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A much cooler and wetter week is upcoming for the region.

Some models show the potential for a significant amount of rain Tuesday and Wednesday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

We’ve got one more hot and humid day today with high pressure offshore, but big changes are on the way. A cold front will move in tonight, possibly accompanied by some showers and thunderstorms. The front is expected to stall out near or just south of us on Tuesday, with much cooler weather likely behind it. Some additional showers are likely during the day on Tuesday. A wave of low pressure riding along the front will bring in some rain for Tuesday night and Wednesday, possibly some heavy rain, especially south of the Mass Pike. Despite how wet it has been around here for the past year or more, we’ve actually been rather dry for the past month or two, and can use the rain, though maybe not all at once. High pressure briefly brings in drier air for Wednesday night and part of Thursday before Debby impacts the region.

By Friday evening, there is a more than 1000 mile spread in the Ensemble members for the location of Debby. Image provided by Tomer Burg.

As of 2am, Hurricane Debby was centered only 40 miles west of Cedar Key, Florida, moving toward the north at 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 80 mph. By the time most of you read this, Debby will have already made landfall in the Florida Big Bend region. Storm surge flooding will gradually die down this morning, and winds will steadily weaken, but rain will continue across the Southeast for several days, with widespread significant flooding likely from northern Florida into the Carolinas. Once inland, Debby is likely to stall out as steering currents collapse, and meander around in the Southeast, resulting in all of that rainfall. While Debby is doing that, some of the moisture from it will get drawn northward, interacting with that stalled frontal system, bringing us some rain for Friday and Saturday. In fact, we could be looking at quite a bit of rain. The wildcard is Debby itself. Some models have Debby dissipate across the Southeast, some bring it back offshore then into the Carolinas before heading up the coast in a weakened state, and some keep it inland and weak, then bring it up here. If it gets up here, there is even more uncertainty, as some models bring what’s left of the circulation right across southern New England, some bring it south of New England, while strengthening as it becomes extratropical, which introduces even more issues here, including gusty winds, not to mention temperature forecasts depending on the where the storm tracks. What you see below is our “best guest-imate” right now, but obviously this is very low confidence based on everything we just mentioned. A cold front will move through Saturday night, kicking whatever is left of Debby out to sea, and bringing drier weather in for Sunday.

Depending on Debby’s track, parts of the region could receive more heavy rain Friday and Saturday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Mostly sunny, clouds start to increase late in the day. High 85-92, little cooler across Cape Cod.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with showers likely. Low 65-72.

Tuesday: More clouds than sun, any showers end early, possibly redevelop towards evening. High 72-79, early, cooler in the afternoon.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with showers likely, possibly heavy. Low 56-63.

Wednesday: Morning clouds and showers, some afternoon sunshine. High 71-78.

Thursday: Early sun, then clouds return in the afternoon. High 72-79.

Friday: Cloudy with a chance of rain. High 70-77.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with more rain possible. High 72-79.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun. High 73-80.

Oh Debby…Hi

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After a nearly month-long slumber, the Atlantic is waking up again with the formation of Tropical Storm Debby.

Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Debby. Loop provided by NOAA.

A tropical wave that we’ve been watching for nearly a week finally found some favorable atmospheric conditions as it moved into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and became Tropical Depression Four Friday night, then was upgraded to Tropical Storm Debby Saturday afternoon. As of 8pm Saturday, Debby was centered about 100 miles west-southwest of Key West, Florida, moving toward the northwest at 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 40 mph. Most of the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle are under a variety of Tropical Storm, Hurricane, and Storm Surge Watches or warnings.

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Debby. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Debby’s immediate future is fairly simple – it will turn more toward the north while strengthening over the next day or so, heading towards the Florida Panhandle or the Big Bend area. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for Debby to reach minimal hurricane strength before making landfall early Monday. However, the models (and NHC) do a poor job forecasting rapid intensification, and the water in the eastern Gulf of Mexico is extremely warm, providing plenty of fuel for the storm. While the forecast doesn’t show it, we wouldn’t be surprised if Debby does intensify rapidly at some point on Sunday, and is a much stronger storm at landfall.

Water temperatures in the eastern Gulf of Mexico are 30-32C (85-90F). Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Once inland, the steering currents collapse, and Debby will slow down and meander around across parts of northern Florida, Georgia, or South Carolina during the first part of next week while weakening. This will increase the flooding threat across the region (more on that in a bit). After that, things get very uncertain. Some models keep the storm inland over the Southeast, steadily weakening before heading northeastward later in the week. Other models bring the storm back out into the Atlantic, with some strengthening, with a second landfall in the Carolinas, or a turn out to sea. At this point, it’s impossible to tell which scenario will happen, so we won’t even attempt to.

The various model ensembles show a wide range of potential tracks for Debby over the next 5 days. Loop provided by Tomer Burg.

Debby will have significant impacts across Florida and parts of the Southeast over the next few days. Strong winds are obviously a threat near where the storm makes landfall. Storm surge is likely across most of the Florida Gulf Coast, with the highest surge and correspondingly highest chance for coastal flooding near and to the right of where the storm makes landfall. By far, the biggest threat is freshwater flooding from heavy rainfall. Widespread rainfall totals of 5-10 inches are expected from central Florida into southern North Carolina, with heavier amounts likely, especially if the storm does stall out. Rainfall totals in excess of 20 inches are not out of the question, especially in parts of Georgia and South Carolina.

Extreme rainfall is likely across the Southeast from Debby with widespread flooding likely. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

While there are no other storms on the horizon at this time, we are getting closer to the peak of hurricane season, so it is likely just a matter of time until the next storm develops.

Weekend Outlook: April 12-15, 2024

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Our last sign that winter is over arrives this weekend – Marathon Monday, and we’ll have some rather nice weather for it as well.

As far as we’re concerned, Patriots Day is the best day of the year. Image provided by the New York Times.

The weather won’t be so nice for the few days leading up to it this weekend, but that’s typical of Spring in New England. A strong low pressure system is heading for the Ohio Valley this afternoon, sending a warm front our way. Some showers will accompany that front this evening, with temperatures rising overnight behind it. We’ll also have some gusty southerly winds ushering that warmer air in. Showers will become a steadier and heavier rain overnight, which will renew flooding concerns once again for much of the region. The low pressure system will send a cold front through Friday morning. Ahead of it, there could be a line of thunderstorms developing, with some more heavy rain and gusty winds. Everything should wind down during the afternoon, with some clearing possible late in the day. However, an upper-level low will move across the Northeast on Saturday, keeping plenty of clouds and gusty winds around with a few more showers possible, especially during the morning. We’ll see some clearing for Saturday night, but clouds quickly return on Sunday as yet another weak system heads our way. This one will bring in another round of rain showers late Sunday and Sunday night, mainly south of the Mass Pike. That system pulls away late at night, and high pressure builds in for Patriots Day on Monday with sunshine, breezy conditions, and mild temperatures. Normal high temperatures for mid-April are in the middle to upper 50s, but we should be about 5-10 degrees warmer than that.

Monday is looking like a glorious day across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Showers redevelop, becoming a steady rain after midnight, becoming windy. Low 48-55 this evening, temperatures may rise a bit after midnight.

Friday: Rain, possibly a thunderstorm, during the morning, taper off to showers and ending early afternoon with some late-day sunny breaks possible, windy. High 57-64.

Friday night: Becoming partly cloudy, breezy. Low 41-48.

Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy, windy, chance for a few showers, mainly in the morning. High 50-57.

Saturday night: Becoming partly cloudy, breezy. Low 38-45.

Sunday: Morning sun, then clouds return, with some showers possible late in the day, breezy. High 56-63.

Sunday night: Showers likely during the evening, skies start to clear out late at night. Low 41-48.

Monday: Plenty of sunshine, breezy. High 60-67.

Weekly Outlook: April 8-14, 2024

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The sun is finally back, though it’ll briefly disappear this afternoon, but we’ve got more rain coming this week.

Should be perfect weather for viewing the eclipse across northern New England this afternoon. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Low pressure has finally moved out and high pressure has built in with sunshine and milder temperatures today. Some high clouds will start to move in this afternoon, but shouldn’t have any impact on viewing the eclipse late this afternoon. As the high slides off to the east on Tuesday, winds will become onshore, so despite the fact that we’ll have sunshine through high clouds once again, it’ll be much cooler the closer you get to the coast. For the Red Sox home opener at Fenway, it will be mostly sunny, but temperatures will probably only be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Opening Day will be sunny once again, and not as chilly as last year.

Clouds will thicken up Tuesday night and Wednesday as a warm front approaches, with some showers accompanying it late in the day. It may take its time crossing the region, so Wednesday may be another cool day, especially across southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley. We’ll break into the warmer air on Thursday as well as Friday ahead of a slow-moving cold front. Ahead of that front we’re looking at another round of rain, with many places picking up another inch or more between Thursday and Friday, so flooding concerns could return once again. The front moves offshore late Friday, then high pressure builds back in for the weekend though an upper-level low will also be moving in, which could generate a few pop-up showers each afternoon.

Much of the region will receive another inch or so of rain for the latter half of the week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Plenty of sunshine, some high clouds move in during the afternoon. High 59-66.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 39-46.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, clouds move back in during the afternoon. High 51-58 along the coast, 59-66 inland.

Tuesday night: Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 36-43.

Wednesday: Cloudy with some showers developing in the afternoon. High 50-57, coolest along the coast.

Thursday: Scattered showers, breezy. High 52-59.

Friday: Rain likely, mostly in the morning, some late-day clearing possible, windy. High 57-64.

Saturday: Partly sunny, windy, chance for a few showers. High 51-58.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, another shower possible. High 56-63.

Late-Season Impactful Storm On the Way

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A long-duration late-season storm is headed our way, but despite the hype, it will not be a big “winter” storm for most of the region.

Widespread severe weather is occurring across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this afternoon. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

Low pressure is heading towards the Great Lakes this afternoon, producing severe weather across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Rain was overspreading southwestern New England this afternoon and will continue do to so this evening, but aside from some brief bursts of steady rain, we’re just looking at some scattered showers through the evening, mainly south of the MA/NH border, with little precipitation expected overnight. Some snow may mix in across the hills of Worcester County, but little, if any, accumulation is expected. As we get into Wednesday, a secondary area of low pressure will develop over the Mid-Atlantic states and head northeastward. This will be the big weather-maker around here. Rain will redevelop, and temperatures will drop into the lower 40s and 30s, while east to northeast winds start to increase, resulting in a rather miserable early April day. Across the interior, especially in the hills of Worcester County and into the Monadnocks, the rain may be mixed with sleet. By evening, steadier and heavier precipitation will move in, with sleet changing to snow in the hills, and sleet and/or snow mixing in across areas north and west if I-495. By Thursday morning, the heaviest precipitation will move offshore, but showers will continue off and on, mixing with snow at times across the interior. As the system stalls out and an upper-level low moves in, the storm will meander around in the Gulf of Maine, keeping the shower activity going off and on into Friday and likely Saturday as well, before conditions improve on Sunday.

The European model shows the progression of the storm and precipitation types over the next few days. Loop proovided by Pivotal Weather.

OK, that’s the general overview, here’s the details of what the impacts will be. First and foremost – heavy rain. Much of the region can expect 1-3 inches of liquid precipitation, which will be nearly all rain across the I-95 corridor and points south and east. Many rivers and streams are already running high, and this will only worsen the situation. The ground remains saturated, so there will be lots of people whose backyards become ponds, which could also result in flooded basements.

The models all show quite a bit of precipitation with this next storm system. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

In addition to the rain, strong winds are likely. Sustained winds of 15-30 mph, with gusts of 40-50 mph or higher, especially along the coast, could result in some wind damage in spots. It will also produce some coastal flooding along east and northeast facing shorelines around the time of high tide on Wednesday and especially Wednesday night.

The strongest winds are expected late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Now, to the “winter” part of this storm. By now, you’ve probably seen everyone sharing model snow maps showing unbelievable amounts of snow from this storm, especially across the interior. Don’t believe them, at all. They do not tell the story of what will happen. Allow us to explain. Under normal circumstances, 1 inch of liquid will result in 10 inches of snow, all other things being equal. That’s what these maps show, and you can usually see a reference to “10:1” on these maps. Things are not equal with this storm. For one, for most of the region, temperatures may not even get down to freezing, let alone below freezing. This changes the ratio closer to 5:1, instead of 10:1, so right off the bat, you need to cut the snow totals from those maps in half. Secondly, the sun angle is much higher now than in the middle of winter, roughly the equivalent of the sun angle around Labor Day. So, during the daytime, despite the cloudcover, the sun angle is high enough to prevent snow from accumulating unless it is coming down fairly hard. In this case, the heaviest precipitation is likely after dark. So, most of the snow that those maps show falling during the day, likely won’t accumulate. Third, many of the models show of layer of warmer air about 8000 feet above ground, especially during the late afternoon and evening. As snow falls into the warmer layer it will melt, then start to refreeze in a colder layer below it – that results in sleet. So, that cuts even more into those snow amounts. The farther north you go, as well as the higher up you go (in the hills), the better chance for some snow accumulation, but for the vast majority of people reading this post, you do not need to be concerned about snow. So, after all that, how much are we actually expecting?

Areas south and east of Interstate 495: Less than 1″
Northern MA/Southern NH (including the Seacoast): 1-3″
Areas north of Concord, NH and the hills of Worcester County/Monadnocks: 4-8″, with heavier amounts likely, especially the farther north you go.

The European model snow depth change map is closest to our idea for how much snow to each. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The good news is that it is still looking like good weather for the eclipse on Monday. We’ll update you on that again in our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

Weekly Outlook: April 1-7, 2024

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We’re into April, but it won’t feel like it. In fact, there may be some flaky white stuff coming for parts of the region, and that’s not an April Fool’s joke.

Temperatures will be well below normal this week. Image provided by WeatherBell,

A weak low pressure system will pass south of the region today, bringing in some clouds, but only a few rain showers, mainly near the South Coast. However, that’s just the warmup act for what is to come. Another low pressure system will follow on Tuesday, again passing south of the region. This one will spread in a few more showers, again favoring areas closer to the South Coast, but a stronger system will move into the Great Lakes, producing some severe weather across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This is the system that will impact us Wednesday into Thursday.

Unsettled weather is expected for much of the upcoming week. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

That system will slowly drift eastward spreading rain in during the day on Wednesday, some of which could be heavy. This will renew flooding concerns across the region. Meanwhile, a secondary area of low pressure will develop near the Mid-Atlantic states, heading northeastward while strengthening. This will bring more heavy rain in along with some gusty northeast winds. This could result in some coastal flooding along east-facing shorelines at high tide. This is also where the uncertainty starts to creep in. Whether the storm stays south of New England, passes close to the South Coast, or crosses Cape Cod, remains to be seen, but it will have an impact on the forecast. Why? As the system strengthens, it will drag cold air southward from Canada. We could see some snow mix in with the rain during the daytime on Wednesday, but with the sun angle getting higher and higher, and temperatures likely above freezing, it’ll have a very tough time accumulating unless it comes down fairly hard. Once the sunsets, accumulation will be a bit more likely, especially across the hills from Worcester County into the Monadnocks, but also across the lower elevations of the interior, where temperatures may drop close to freezing. This will depend on how far north the low actually travels. The farther north the low goes, the farther north you’ll need to be to see accumulating snow. While it’s still a little early for us to start talking about amounts, others have posted some of the model snow forecasts on the internet already. The problem is, these maps significantly overestimate the amount of snow that this storm will likely produce, due to the factors we listed above. We’ll likely post a more detailed look at this storm on Tuesday, when things should be a bit clearer.

The models all have different ideas on where the storm will be and how strong it will be Wednesday night, which impacts how much and what type of precipitation we can expect. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Rain and snow showers should wind down on Thursday, but winds will remain gusty as the storm only slowly pulls away. An upper-level low pressure system will move in for Friday and Saturday, keeping the surface low pressure area nearby, resulting in breezy and chilly conditions, with a few more rain or snow showers possible. High pressure builds in for Sunday with drier and more seasonable conditions.

Historically, the odds are against us having good weather to see the eclipse on Monday. Image provided by NOAA.

For the eclipse on Monday, right now, it looks like high pressure may provide the region with at least partially clear skies, but this can obviously change, so stay tuned for future updates. Tuesday is also an important day, as it is the home opener at Fenway for the Red Sox. Right now it looks sunny, but a seabreeze is likely, so even though temperatures could get well into the 50s and 60s inland, closer to the coast, temperatures may only be in the upper 40s or lower 50s. Obviously this can change as well.

Opening Day this year should be quite a bit milder than last year.

Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers, mainly near the South Coast. High 51-58, a little cooler along the coast.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 34-41.

Tuesday: Cloudy with rain developing late in the day, mainly south of the Mass Pike. High 43-50, coolest along the coast.

Tuesday night: Periods of rain and showers spreading across the region, possibly mixed with or changing to sleet and/or snow from the Worcester Hills into the Monadnocks of southern New Hampshire, becoming breezy. Low 33-40.

Wednesday: Windy with rain, heavy at times, possibly mixed with a little sleet or snow at times inland and in the hills, especially at night. High 36-43.

Thursday: Windy with rain or snow showers gradually winding down. High 37-44, possibly warmer across southeastern Massachusetts

Friday: Cloudy and breezy with a few showers, possibly some snow showers. High 39-46.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with some additional showers, breezy. High 40-47.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, still breezy. High 47-54.