Weekly Outlook: November 20-26, 2023

Thanksgiving week has arrived, but before we get to the holiday we’ve got a complicated forecast.

Better find the winter gear, temperatures will drop into the teens in some places Tuesday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The week starts off simple enough with high pressure bringing us sunshine and cool conditions. It’ll be breezy at times, making it feel even cooler, with wind chills in the 20s and lower 30s. Tuesday starts off chilly, but we’ll see clouds start to move in as low pressure heads towards the Great Lakes. A secondary area of low pressure will develop off of the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday evening, passing near or just south of the South Coast on Wednesday while the main low passes by to the north. They’ll combine to bring us a windy and wet day on Wednesday, also known as the busiest travel day of the year. However, the rain and wind isn’t the entire story. We’ve left out a big detail, one that many of you probably won’t like. The precipitation will move in towards midnight Tuesday night, and temperatures at that time will probably be close to freezing. That means that it will likely start as snow (or sleet), especially north and west of Boston. Once you get outside of I-495, there could even be some accumulation before the change to rain washes everything away. Once you get into the hills of Worcester County and the Monadnocks of southwestern New Hampshire, there could be a few inches before the changeover. Yes folks, it’s that time of year, whether you like it or not, to use an overused phrase – “Winter is Coming.”

Most of the accumulating snow will be well north and west of Boston Tuesday night. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

The rain tapers off Wednesday afternoon, but likely doesn’t completely end until evening, but then high pressure builds in with sunshine and cool temperatures again for Thanksgiving. So, if you’re traveling locally, you shouldn’t have any issues, but if you’re heading out to one of the high school football games make sure you dress appropriately, because it will be on the chilly side. Friday looks similar to Thanksgiving with dry and cool conditions once again, but the weekend isn’t looking as nice. Another system will likely move up the coast, and this one *should* be mostly rain, but the various forecast models don’t agree on much with this storm, including how strong it will be, the track it will take, or even whether it will impact us on Saturday or Sunday or not at all. We’ll take a deeper dive on that system when we publish our Weekend Outlook, which will be out on Wednesday this week instead of the usual Thursday.

The last 3 days worth of GFS forecast runs show how inconsistent the model has been with the forecast for next weekend. Images provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Monday: Plenty of sunshine, a little breezy at times. High 34-41.

Monday night: Clear skies through the evening, some clouds start to move in after midnight. Low 18-25.

Tuesday: Becoming mostly cloudy. High 36-43.

Tuesday night: Cloudy and becoming windy snow developing around midnight north and west of Boston, changing to sleet and rain before daybreak, rain developing elsewhere. Low 30-37 during the evening, temperatures rise after midnight.

Wednesday: Cloudy and windy with rain likely, possibly heavy at times in the morning, tapering off to showers by early afternoon, ending in the evening. High 46-53, possibly a little warmer across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod.

Thanksgiving: Mostly sunny, breezy. High 43-50.

Friday: Partly sunny. High 42-49.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, breezy, chance of rain. High 39-46.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, chance of rain. High 39-46.

Weekend Outlook: November 17-20, 2023

Lots of change is in the air for the weekend, from warm to cool, from wet to dry, from windy to calm.

Temperatures should get well into the 60s for most of us on Friday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

High pressure is in control to start the weekend with dry weather for tonight and Friday. Temperatures will turn milder as winds shift into the southwest with the high pressure area moving off to our east. However, clouds will be streaming in ahead of both an approaching cold front and a low pressure area moving up the East Coast. The low pressure area is the one that has been drenching Florida for the past couple of days, but right now, it looks like it will stay far enough offshore to only bring in some rain to parts of Cape Cod and the Islands and possibly southeastern Massachusetts. However, the cold front will also bring in some showers for Friday night into Saturday morning. Saturday will start off quite mild, likely in the 50s for most spots, but with the front moving through, not only will it bring an end to the rain, it will usher much cooler weather in on gusty northwest winds. Temperatures will likely drop trough the afternoon, with skies clearing out late in the day. High pressure builds in for Sunday and Monday with sunshine and cool conditions, but it will likely remain breezy, especially on Sunday, as low pressure strengthens in Atlantic Canada.

This system shouldn’t be a big rain-maker for most of the region. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Clear skies through the evening, clouds start to move in after midnight. Low 34-41.

Friday: Increasing and thickening clouds, breezy, and mild. High 58-65.

Friday night: Cloudy with showers developing, mainly after midnight. Low 47-54.

Saturday: Rain and showers end by early afternoon, skies start to clear out late in the day, becoming breezy and turning cooler in the afternoon. High 52-59 in the morning, temperatures drop in the afternoon.

Saturday night: Clear skies, breezy during the evening. Low 28-35.

Sunday: Plenty of sunshine, breezy. High 44-51.

Sunday night: Clear skies, breezy. Low 25-32.

Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds, still a bit breezy. High 38-45.

Weekly Outlook: November 13-19, 2023

We’ve got an extended stretch of dry weather coming up and as a bonus, it’s going to turn milder too.

A few rain or snow showers are possible later today. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com

We’ll start the week with some sunshine, but clouds move in this afternoon ahead of a weak disturbance. That system may produce a few rain or snow showers late this afternoon and evening, but they’ll be widely scattered and very light. Skies clear out behind that system as high pressure builds in, setting up a sunny but chilly day on Tuesday. There may be a few ocean-effect rain or snow showers across the Outer Cape, but the rest of us will stay dry. Wednesday and Thursday look dry as well with high pressure in control, but temperatures should start to moderate by Thursday as the high slides off to the east. Clouds return on Friday ahead of the next storm system. We’ll be fairly mild ahead of that storm, with some rain likely late Friday into early Saturday. Once that system moves offshore, high pressure returns with drier and cooler conditions again on Sunday.

Temperatures could top 60 in many areas on Friday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Morning sunshine gives way to increasing afternoon clouds, a late-day rain or snow shower is possible. High 39-46.

Monday night: A rain or snow shower during the evening, some clearing after midnight. Low 26-33.

Tuesday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny, a rain or snow shower is possible across the Outer Cape. High 43-50.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 27-34.

Wednesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 44-51.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 53-60.

Friday: Becoming mostly cloudy, rain possible late in the day, more likely at night, windy. High 56-63.

Saturday: Rain ending early, some clearing in the afternoon, breezy. High 52-59.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny and breezy. High 44-51.

Weekend Outlook: November 10-13, 2023

Another dry weekend coming up? Where were these during the summer?

If you were up early enough this morning, some parts of the region had some sleet or even a few wet snowflakes for the first time this season. Don’t worry, they won’t be back for a while. Any lingering rain showers will end this evening, and while we may see a little clearing overnight, clouds quickly return on Friday as an upper-level disturbance moves across the region. Could there be a shower or two? It’s possible, but for the most part, it just be cloudy, breezy, and cool. High pressure builds in for the weekend with lots of sunshine, but again, temperatures will remain on the cool side. Another upper-level disturbance brings clouds back in on Monday, but again, we should remain dry for the most part, with only a few stray showers expected.

Temperatures will be well below normal through the weekend. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: A lingering shower this evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Low 33-40.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, slight chance for a shower, skies start to clear out late in the day, breezy. High 45-52.

Friday night: Clear skies. Low 31-38.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 43-50.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 25-32.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 38-45.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 23-30.

Monday: Morning sun, increasing afternoon clouds, slight chance for a late-day shower. High 42-49.

Weekly Outlook: November 6-12, 2023

The weather pattern will be fairly active for the first half of the week across the region.

Temperatures should get well into the 60s on Tuesday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We’re starting the week off with a rather cool day today with high pressure in control, but we’ll have plenty of clouds ahead of an approaching low pressure system. A warm front moves through tonight, bringing some showers with it. Those showers end Tuesday morning, setting up a rather mild day, with temperatures likely topping 60 in many locations. As the low pressure system passes by to t north, it will drag a cold front through late in the day, possibly producing another shower or two. High pressure builds in behind that front with much cooler weather on Wednesday. However, we’ll have another low pressure system quickly approaching by late Wednesday. This system will bring in some light rain on Thursday, but if the rain moves in fast enough, some cold air will still be in place, so the rain may start as some freezing rain or sleet well north and west of Boston. Another system may quickly follow for Friday, but this one looks to be a bit farther to the south, so any rain would likely be confined to areas south of the Mass Pike. High pressure builds back in for the weekend.

If precipitation arrives early enough on Thursday, it may not start as rain across the interior. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Becoming mostly cloudy. High 46-53.

Monday night: Cloudy and becoming breezy with showers developing. Low 41-48 during the evening, temperatures may rise a bit overnight.

Tuesday: Showers end early, then becoming partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and mild with another late-day shower possible. High 60-67.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy, breezy, turning cooler. Low 32-39.

Wednesday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy. High 42-49.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with showers likely, possibly starting as some freezing rain or sleet from the hills of Worcester County into southern New Hampshire. High 43-50.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, more showers possible during the afternoon and evening, mainly south of the Mass Pike. High 46-53.

Saturday: Any lingering showers end early, then a mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 47-54.

Sunday: Partly sunny. High 41-48.

Weekend Outlook: November 3-6, 2023

While this weekend won’t be as warm as last Saturday, it’ll be a lot warmer than the past few days.

We had our first widespread frost and freeze of the season for much of the region this morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We’ve got another chilly night coming up with high pressure settling in. Clear skies and light winds this evening will allow temperatures to drop fairly efficiently. However, as the high moves offshore, winds will shift into the southwest tonight, which will allow milder air to start to move in. You’ll notice it on Friday as the southwest winds start to pick up, allowing temperatures to get well into the 50s in most places, which is right around where we should be in early November. The warming trend will continue over the weekend and into Monday, with many places approaching 60, but a couple of disturbances will pass north of the region. While we’re not expecting any rain, except possibly a few sprinkles, we will have a decent amount of cloudcover at times. The clouds become more numerous later Monday as the next storm system begins to approach the region.

High temperatures in early November are normally in the mid-50s. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Don’t forget, Daylight Saving Time ends at 2am Sunday, when we turn the clocks back an hour. Your cell phone will do it automatically, but good luck getting it changed in your car. At least you’ll get an extra hour of sleep. Oh, and in case you forgot, sunset on Sunday will be a few minutes after 4:30pm.

It’ll start getting dark rather early as of Sunday. Image provided by Accuweather.

Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 28-35.

Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds for much of the day, clouds become more widespread toward evening, breezy during the afternoon. High 50-57.

Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with diminishing winds. Low 40-47.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 55-62.

Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 38-45.

Sunday: Partly sunny. High 55-62.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 37-44.

Monday: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. High 52-59.

Weekly Outlook: October 30 – November 5, 2023

The warm weather is gone and won’t be back anytime soon.

Temperatures will be several degrees below normal for much of the upcoming week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Low pressure rides along a frontal system stalled out across the region today, bringing us a chilly rain. Temperatures will end up a bit milder south of the front today, especially along the South Coast, possibly as far north as the Mass Pike. Rain ends this evening as the wave moves offshore, then high pressure builds in with clearing Monday night. Halloween starts off with sunshine and cool temperatures, but clouds start to move back in during the afternoon. A developing coastal system will pass south and east of the region late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Some rain is expected across parts of southeastern New England, but how far north and west the precipitation gets is still a question mark. Once you get north and west of I-495, the chances drop quickly. However, with some colder air in place, the rain may start as some wet snow. We’re not expecting any accumulation, but if you’re out an about early Wednesday morning, don’t be surprised if you see some wet snowflakes. That system quickly pulls away with skies clearing out in the afternoon. High pressure then builds back in with sunshine and chilly conditions for Thursday. Temperatures will slowly moderate for Friday into Sunday as the high moves offshore, with temperatures getting back above normal next weekend, but we’re talking into the 60s, not the 70s and 80s we just had. An approaching cold front spreads clouds in on Sunday, but it looks like any rain should hold off until Sunday night or Monday.

A couple of models show the potential for some wet snow to mix with the rain Wednesday morning. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Periods of rain and showers, ending late in the day. High 48-55 north of the Mass Pike, 56-63 south of the Pike.

Monday night: Becoming partly cloudy to clear. Low 32-39.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny during the morning, clouds start to move back in during the afternoon. High 44-51.

Tuesday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy with showers developing across southeastern Massachusetts late at night. Low 30-37.

Wednesday: Some showers around in the morning, maybe a few wet snowflakes mixed in, mainly across eastern Massachusetts, skies start to clear out late in the day. High 42-49.

Thursday: Plenty of sunshine. High 45-52.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, not as cool. High 52-59.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 55-62.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun, breezy, and mild. High 57-64.

Weekend Outlook: October 27-30, 2023

The warm weather continues into the start of the weekend, but big changes are on the way.

Temperatures could reach 80 in some spots on Saturday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

A ridge of high pressure remains in control through Saturday, keeping temperatures well above normal. In fact, with plenty of sunshine both Friday and Saturday, we may make a run at 80 degrees in some spots. Friday night will be rather mild, with our low temperatures fairly close to our normal high temperatures for late-October. A cold front moves through Saturday evening, with clouds streaming in along with it. Sunday will feature plenty of clouds, and it will turn much cooler, but we’ll still be close to normal for this time of year. A wave of low pressure riding along the front brings in some rain during the afternoon. Occasional showers will continue for Sunday night and a good chunk of Monday as the cooler air continues to filter in. As the wave and the front push farther offshore later Monday, we may see some clearing develop as high pressure starts to build in. A much cooler pattern settles in for next week with below normal temperatures. Some of the models show the potential for a storm later Tuesday into Wednesday which may not be all rain if you’re well inland, and could impact trick-or-treating Tuesday evening, but we’ll get into more detail on that in our Weekly Outlook Monday morning.

Sunday afternoon will be 20-25 degrees cooler than Saturday afternoon across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 53-60.

Friday: Becoming mostly sunny and warm. High 73-80.

Friday night: Clear skies. Low 54-61.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy, and warm. Clouds may start to increase late in the day. High 73-80.

Saturday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy and turning cooler. Low 43-50.

Sunday: Cloudy and much cooler with showers developing in the afternoon. High 54-61.

Sunday night: Occasional showers. Low 44-51.

Monday: Showers gradually ending, some clearing possible late in the day. High 55-62.

Weekly Outlook: October 23-29, 2023

The week starts off cool, but you’re really going to enjoy the second half of the week.

Frost is possible across portions of the interior Tuesday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

An upper-level low pressure area lifts out today, then high pressure starts to build in. This will result in clearing with breezy conditions today. The winds die down tonight, and with clear skies, we’ll be rather chilly. Some frost is likely away from the coast and urban areas. However, some high clouds will start to filter in overnight, which will act to level temperatures off. If the clouds move in a little quicker, that may prevent frost in some areas. Tuesday should feature sunshine after the clouds move out in the morning, with temperatures starting to moderate. High pressure moves offshore on Wednesday, and temperatures really start to warm up, possibly topping 70 in some locations. Another upper-level disturbance will bring in some clouds for late Wednesday and Thursday, but we’ll remain dry. Even warmer weather is expected for Thursday and Friday with temperatures likely getting well into 70s, possibly even approaching 80 in some spots on Friday. Saturday also looks warm, but some clouds will start to move in as a cold front approaches the region. Sunday’s forecast depends on the timing of the cold front. A disturbance riding along it will bring in some showers, but will the front move through Saturday night, or will it wait until later Sunday? If it’s earlier, Sunday will be much cooler than Saturday. If it’s later, then it’ll be another very warm day despite the cloudcover and showers. Once the front does move through, even cooler weather settles in for the start of the following week.

Sunday could be very warm, or quite a bit cooler. The models don’t agree right now. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 55-62.

Monday night: Clear and chilly, some clouds start to filter in after midnight. Low 34-41, except 41-48 in urban areas and near the coast.

Tuesday: Early clouds, then becoming mostly sunny. High 56-63.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 44-51.

Wednesday: Morning sun, increasing afternoon clouds, milder. High 64-71.

Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 70-77.

Friday: Partly sunny. High 70-77.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 71-78.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy and cooler with a chance of showers. High 61-68.

Weekend Outlook: October 20-23, 2023

For a change, it’s going to rain this weekend. The forecast itself isn’t that simple though, so let us explain.

A cold front in the Midwest and a trough of low pressure off the South Carolina coast will be the main players in our weather for the next few days. Image provided by NOAA.

High pressure slides off to the east tonight and clouds start to stream in ahead of a cold front currently crossing the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure will begin to develop off the Carolina coast tonight and head northward. Ahead of both of these, we’ll have a cloudy but mild day on Friday. Some showers are possible during the day, but the bulk of the activity should stay to our west. Showers will become more widespread by evening as the low pressure area to the south draws closer. The combination of the low and the approaching front will produce widespread showers with some bouts of steadier rain through Friday night and Saturday morning, tapering off during the afternoon. While the rain won’t be heavy, some places could see an inch or so by the time it winds down. By Saturday night, the cold front and the low pressure area move offshore, but an upper-level disturbance will move into the Northeast. This will allow the low to slow down or even stall out in the Gulf of Maine while intensifying. This may keep the showers around across parts of Southern Maine and Southern New Hampshire, possibly northern Massachusetts as well, but for most of us, it’ll just be a blustery and cool day with only a few showers around.

Sunday could end up as another damp day according to some of the models. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

High pressure finally starts to build in for Monday with some clearing, but it will remain breezy and cool. In fact, as winds subside Monday night, and skies become clear, we’ve got a chance for our first widespread frost of the fall. So, if you’ve got some outdoor plants, you may want to prepare to bring them inside.

Monday night will be the coolest night we’ve had around here since the middle of May. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Increasing clouds. Low 46-53.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers. High 60-67.

Friday night: Cloudy with showers likely. Low 52-59.

Saturday: Cloudy with occasional showers and some periods of steadier rain. High 57-64.

Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers ending in the evening, becoming breezy. Low 45-52.

Sunday: More clouds than sun, windy, cooler, more showers possible, especially from the Merrimack Valley northward. High 52-59.

Sunday night: Becoming partly cloudy, breezy. Low 38-45.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, especially in the morning. High 53-60.