Once the snow finally winds down today, chilly weather will move back in for much of the week.
Temperatures will be well below normal this week. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Low pressure will slowly pull away from the region today, with occasional light snow or snow showers for a good chunk of the day, especially north of the Mass Pike, where additional accumulations of 2-4 inches are possible (less is expected to the south). We’ll see some clearing tonight, but clouds will fill back in on Tuesday as an upper-level disturbance crosses the region, keeping temperatures on the chilly side. Another disturbance moves in on Wednesday, which may produce a few snow showers late in the day and at night. High pressure then builds in with dry and cold conditions for the latter half of the week and into the weekend. We are keeping an eye on an ocean storm late in the weekend. It’s too early to tell whether it will stay offshore with no impact or pass close enough to bring us more snow on Sunday.
Another week of model roulette awaits us. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Cloudy with occasional light snow and snow showers, ending by evening, breezy along the coast. Additional accumulation 2-4″ north of the Mass Pike, less than 2″ south of the Pike. High 19-26 north and west of Boston, 27-34 in the morning south of Boston with temperatures falling through the day.
Monday night: Any lingering snow showers end in the evening, becoming clear after midnight, breezy. Low 4-11.
Tuesday: Sunny in the morning, becoming partly to mostly cloudy in the afternoon. High 17-24.
Tuesday night: Becoming clear. Low -1 to +6, warmer across Cape Cod.
Wednesday: Morning sun, then clouds return. High 16-23.
Wednesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, slight chance for a snow shower. Low -1 to +6, warmer across Cape Cod.
Thursday: Intervals of clouds and sun. High 16-23.
Thursday night: Becoming clear. Low -3 to +4.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 13-20.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 19-26.
Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for snow. High 24-31.
The biggest snowstorm this area has seen in a few years is on the way, with arctic air preceding it.
Winter Storm Warnings are in effect from New Mexico to New England. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
An arctic cold front will cross the region later today, producing a few snow showers or squalls, but gusty northwest winds behind the system will usher in the coldest air so far this winter for the weekend. Temperatures will plunge into the single numbers tonight with some subzero readings possible. When you factor in the wind, it will feel like it is 10 to 20 below zero if you are outside Saturday morning. Despite some sunshine, temperatures will struggle to reach the teens on Saturday, but the wind will subside. We’ll see high clouds start to stream in during the afternoon as a developing low pressure system heads our way.
Bundle up if you need to head outside for any reason Saturday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.
That system will move into the Deep South, and a secondary area of low pressure will develop near the Carolinas or Virginia Tidewater region. as it starts to strengthen it will move northeastward, passing south and east of New England Sunday night and Monday. There is still a little question as to how far north the low gets, which has some implications on the forecast, as it could result in some sleet near the South Coast, but for the bulk of the region, we’re looking at snow, thanks to the cold air already in place.
The storm will bring wintry weather to a very large area this weekend. Loop provided by weathermodels.com
Because it will be so cold for much of the region, it will be a fluffier snow, which can pile up more quickly. The colder the air is, the less moisture it can hold. In general, 1 inch of liquid will result in 10 inches of snow when the temperature is near freezing. When temperatures are in the teens, as they will be across the interior for this storm, that ratio can change to as much as 15-20 inches of snow for 1 inch of liquid.
The colder the air, the fluffier the snow. Image provided by weather.com
Closer to the coast, especially south of Boston, temperatures will not be nearly as cold, thanks to something meteorologists refer to as a “coastal front”. Ocean temperatures remain near or a little over 40, so as winds blow over that water and reach the coast, we will see temperatures moderate into the 20s, or even lower 30s, but that air usually doesn’t penetrate too far inland. So, you end up with a sharp boundary, or front, where temperatures go from the teens to the west and 20s to the east over a span of just a few miles. Exactly where that front sets up makes a big difference, not only because it’s the difference between fluffy snow and wet snow, but also because that front provides a little bit of lift, which usually results in some of the heaviest snow totals just to the west of that coastal front. As the system starts to pull away on Monday, that coastal front will quickly move southeastward, allowing the very cold air to quickly return to southeastern Massachusetts.
The coastal front is easy to find on temperature maps for Sunday evening. Image provided by WeatherBell.
For the timing, it looks like the snow will move in near or just after midday on Sunday from southwest to northeast, reaching southern New Hampshire by mid-afternoon. The steadiest and heaviest snow is likely from about 6pm to 2am. If there is going to be any sleet near the South Coast, it will likely be between about 10pm and 3am. As the storm starts to pull away on Monday, we’ll still see occasional light snow for much of the day, with some additional accumulations possible. Everything should finally wind down and end Monday evening.
Many models show the potential for some sleet near the South Coast around midnight Sunday night. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Now, the part you’re all waiting for – how much snow can we expect? There’s still a few details to be worked out that will impact the final numbers (where does the coastal front set up? will there be sleet near the South Coast?), but for the most part, we feel confident enough to put the pen to the paper so to speak. For most of the region, we’re looking at a general 12-18 inches. There will be some spots that get a little more, and there could be a little less near the South Coast, especially if there’s some sleet involved.
The NWS Blend of Models is mostly closely aligned with our thinking. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
In case you’re curious, the last time some cities around here received a foot or more in a single storm:
Boston: January 29, 2022 – 23.6″ Blue Hill: January 29-30, 2022 – 27.6″ Lowell: January 6-7, 2024 – 15.8″ Worcester: January 6-7, 2024 – 15.5″ Providence: January 28-29, 2022 – 19.3″ Hartford: February 1-2, 2021 – 12.1″ Manchester: December 1-3, 2019 – 20.8″
Once this storm pulls away, cold air will remain in place for much of the upcoming week, so don’t expect any melting any time soon.
You may have heard that there’s a little storm on the way. Well, before that happens, it’s also going to get ridiculously cold. We’ll get to all of that in this blog, but we’ll tell you right now, you won’t find a forecast for snow amounts. It’s too early for that, and there’s too much uncertainty still. We’ll tell you how we think the storm will evolve and its likely impacts around here, how cold it will get Before the Storm (and how that will impact things), and lots of musical references, but we’re not going to give you a snowfall forecast. We may do that in another blog post tomorrow, but for now, we’ll leave the hype to all of the TV meteorologists and Facebook Forecasters of the world.
A variety of watches, warnings and advisories are in effect across the eastern US. Image provided by the National Weather Service Eastern Region
After a somewhat mild day today, a cold front will move through this evening, possibly accompanied by a few snow showers, but the more noticeable effect will be cooler air moving in tonight. On Friday, an arctic cold front will cross the region, possibly with some additional snow showers or squalls, and that is what will start the Change in the Weather. Bitterly cold air will flood into the region behind that front. Temperatures will plunge into the single numbers and below zero across the region, with wind chills well below zero thanks to gusty northwest winds, making you dream about those Hot Summer Nights. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for much of the region. On Saturday, sunshine will start to fade as high Clouds Race Across the Sky, but it will remain Stone Cold, with high temperatures only getting into the teens at best, with wind chills still near or below zero before winds die down in the afternoon. Clouds will continue to stream in Saturday night, but it will remain chilly. This brings us to Sunday.
Wind chills of -10 to -20 are expected Saturday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Low pressure moving into the Southwest will run into the arctic airmass covering much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation over the next few days. Moderate to heavy snow is expected from the Southern Plains across to the Tennessee Valley and parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states. To the south of these areas, a significant sleet and freezing rain storm is likely from parts of Texas into the Deep South. Places like Dallas, Little Rock and perhaps Nashville and Atlanta could be Trapped Under Ice by the end of the weekend. By Sunday, that system will move off the Carolina coast and head northeastward, developing as it passes south and east of Cape Cod early Monday. Sunday will start off cloudy and cold, with snow likely moving in by mid-to-late afternoon from southwest to northeast. With some very cold air in place, it will be more of a fluffy snow, easier to clean up, but it also piles up a lot more quickly. Snow will continue through the night, possibly heavy at times, slowly winding down during the day on Monday. The questions now are:
How much does the very dry air in place slow down the start of the snow on Sunday?
How heavy does the snow fall at times Sunday night into Monday?
When will the snow actually end?
How close will the system actually track to the coast?
Will temperatures get up close to freezing across parts of southeastern Massachusetts behind a coastal front?
Could there be some sleet and/or rain near the South Coast and Cape Cod?
With this many questions that we don’t have answers to at this point, it would be irresponsible to try and forecast snowfall totals, so we won’t do that. We will say that it is likely that much of the region gets 6 inches or more, but beyond that, we won’t commit to anything else.
After some snow showers/squalls tonight and Friday, you see the snow spreading in on Sunday. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com
Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few snow showers, skies start to clear out late at night. Low 16-23.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for some snow showers or squalls, breezy. High 27-34.
Friday night: Becoming clear, breezy, and bitterly cold. Low -3 to +4, a little milder across Cape Cod.
Saturday: Sunny and breezy in the morning, high clouds stream in during the afternoon. High 10-17.
Saturday night: Becoming mostly cloudy. Low -1 to +6.
Sunday: Cloudy with snow developing by mid-to-late afternoon. High 13-20 north and west of I-95, 21-28 south and east.
Sunday night: Snow likely, possibly mixed with a little sleet or rain near the South Coast and Cape Cod, becoming breezy. Low 8-15 north and west of I-95, 16-23 south and east.
Monday: Snow gradually ending, breezy. High 16-23 north and west of I-95, 24-31 south and east.
If you’re looking for a week for a tropical vacation, this may be the one, because we’re in for some very chilly air at times this week.
Wind chills will be in the single numbers and below zero when you head out the door Wednesday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Snow will end this morning as low pressure pulls away from the region, with some clearing possible during the afternoon. However, an arctic cold front will move through this evening, possibly accompanied by a few snow showers or squalls. They shouldn’t be that widespread, but could cause a few issues if you have to get caught under one. Luckily they’ll be moving through during the night, when very few people will be on the roads. High pressure builds in on Tuesday, with a very cold day despite sunshine. Temperatures will only get unto the upper teens and 20s, with wind chills in the single numbers or below zero. As the high moves off to the east, temperatures will start to moderate, but we’ll also see some clouds start to move in during the day ahead of the next storm system. This storm will bring in some snow showers late Wednesday night and early Thursday, but it shouldn’t be that big of a deal. High pressure then builds in with some bitterly cold air for the end of the week and the weekend.
High temperatures will only be in the teens on Saturday, Image provided by Weathermodels.com
By the end of the weekend we’re going to be keeping an eye on a storm system passing south of the region. We’ll have plenty of cold air with a large area of high pressure in place, the question is, how far north does the precipitation get. Some models keep it well to the south, with the high to the north keeping us very cold but dry, others have the precipitation move in with some snow possible. At this point, it’s still nearly a week away, so it’s impossible to tell which, if either, solution will be right. For now, we’ll just keep an eye on it as the week goes on, but we’re leaning towards the bitterly cold and dry solution.
Most of the models keep us dry and bitterly cold next Sunday, but not all of them. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Snow showers ending in the morning, some afternoon sunny breaks develop, becoming breezy. High 29-36.
Monday night: Partly cloudy with a chance for a few snow showers before midnight, clearing after midnight, breezy. Low 12-19.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy. High 19-26.
Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 4-11.
Wednesday: Morning sun, then increasing afternoon clouds. High 25-32.
Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for snow showers after midnight. Low 21-28, temperatures may rise a little overnight.
Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, some snow showers possible in the morning. High 35-42.
Thursday night: Becoming clear. Low 14-21.
Friday: Partly sunny, breezy, colder. High 23-30.
Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 14-21.
After days of endless social media hype about a snowstorm this weekend, we’ve finally there and while it’s not a blockbuster blizzard, we do have some light to perhaps moderate snow on the way.
Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for portions of the Northeast. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
A cold front is moving toward the East Coast this morning, with a wave of low pressure developing along it. At the same time, an upper-level disturbance is heading toward the Northeast. That disturbance will bring in some snow showers this morning, possibly mixed with some rain across parts of southeastern Massachusetts. While these snow showers may whiten the ground, we’re not expecting much accumulation with them. Meanwhile, low pressure developing off the Southeast coast will ride up the front, passing south and east of New England later today and tonight. The precipitation shield with that system will move in from the south later this afternoon, with snow for much of the region, except rain across parts of Cape Cod and perhaps southeastern Massachusetts. Even there, a change to snow is expected by evening as colder air moves in on the backside of the storm. Some steady snow is likely across much of the region from late afternoon through the evening, tapering off to snow showers after midnight. The snow showers may not end across parts of eastern Massachusetts until around daybreak on Monday as the storm pulls away.
Snow will spread across the region this afternoon and evening. Loop provided by WeatherBell.
In general, we’re looking at 3-5 inches. of snow for much of eastern Massachusetts, with a few heavier amounts possible. As you head farther north into the Merrimack Valley and Southern New Hampshire, as well as across parts of Cape Cod, totals will be a little lighter, generally 1-3 inches.
A general light to moderate snow is expected this afternoon and tonight. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
The weather could have an impact on the Patriots/Texans playoff game at Gillette Stadium this afternoon. Some occasional light snow is expected, with temperatures in the lower to middle 30s and light winds.
Hope you enjoyed our recent mild weather, because winter is about to return.
Wind chills will be in the teens and lower 20s when you walk out the door Friday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.
A cold front crossed the region earlier today, and cooler air has already started to move in. Another weak disturbance moves through tonight, possibly producing a few snow showers or squalls, followed by even colder air. High pressure builds in tomorrow, setting up a chilly day. With a large upper-level low pressure area settling into the Northeast we’ll see clouds pop up after some morning sunshine. Clouds thicken back up at night as another weak system heads out of the Great Lakes and towards New England. This one will bring in some precipitation on Saturday. South and east of I-95 it should be mostly rain, but north and west of there a period of light snow or snow showers is expected. We’re only looking at an inch, maybe 2 in spots, so it’s not that big of a deal, but if you’re going to be out and about during the day Saturday you’ll want to keep this in mind. This brings us to Sunday.
Some light snow is expected north and west of Boston on Saturday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
You may have seen or heard the hype on Wednesday about the “blockbuster” storm head our way for Sunday. Well, that is not likely to be the case. One run of one model (that hasn’t done so well lately) showed that yesterday afternoon, and all the Facebook Forecasters (and some of the local TV meteorologists) jumped all over it. We don’t do “wishcasting” here, we focus on actual forecasting. Yes, there will be a storm moving up the coast, but it is not likely to be a major snowstorm for the region. In fact, there are some models that keep it completely offshore with no impacts at all. We think it’ll be close enough to spread some light snow into parts of southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, possibly as far north as the Boston area, but even that is not a lock by any means. In fact, the precipitation could end up as rain across parts of Cape Cod if the storm passes close enough. As for the timing, that’s also a question mark. Some models have the precipitation move in by early afternoon, some hold off until evening. With the Patriots kicking off at 3:00, a lot of people will be paying attention to the forecast. We wouldn’t be surprised at all if there is snow during the game, especially during the second half. We’ll likely do another blog post about this system on Saturday, once things are a little more locked in. At that point, we’ll go deeper into an accumulation forecast, but for now, we don’t anticipate anywhere picking up more than 6 inches. The system pulls away Sunday night, but another upper-level disturbance moves through on Monday with some clouds and possibly a few flurries.
The models all have different ideas about the potential storm on Sunday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: A few snow showers or squalls possible, otherwise partly cloudy, breezy. Low 15-22.
Friday: Morning sun, increasing afternoon clouds, windy. High 27-34.
Friday night: Becoming mostly cloudy, snow showers possible towards daybreak. Low 21-28, temperatures may rise a little overnight.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy, light snow and snow showers developing north and west of I-95, rain, possibly mixed with a little snow, south and east. High 35-42.
Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 25-32.
Sunday: Cloudy with some snow developing in the afternoon, mainly south and east of I-95, possibly mixed with rain across Cape Cod. High 32-39.
Sunday night: Any snow ending, becoming partly cloudy after midnight. Low 18-25.
Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few flurries, breezy. High 28-35.
The first half of the week should be quiet, but things could change during the latter half.
Wednesday looks mild with only a few rain showers. Image provided by WeatherBell.
High pressure builds in with dry weather today, but the storm system that brought yesterday’s rain will intensify in Atlantic Canada today, producing some gusty winds. As the high slides off to the east, temperatures will start to moderate on Tuesday, but clouds will start to move in ahead of a fast-moving system heading our way. That system passes north of the region on Wednesday with some rain showers possible, but much of the day may end up dry. After that, things start to change. At the upper levels of the atmosphere a large trough of low pressure will shift to the Eastern US, resulting in colder weather returning to the region. A low pressure area is expected to develop and move up the East Coast on Thursday, but the forecast models have a wide range in potential scenarios with this storm, with anything from a miss offshore to a decent amount of snow to more rain than snow. At this point, it’s too early to pin down one scenario as the models keep changing their tune with every run, so we’re just going to keep the forecast vague for now, but if it does look like a threat for snow, we’ll do a special blog post beforehand. High pressure should bring drier weather in for Friday and Saturday, but there’s the chance for another coastal system on Sunday, though this one looks more like a wave riding up along a cold front right now. Again, there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty, so we’re going to keep the forecast vague for now, and hopefully have more clarity when we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.
Low pressure will likely have some impact on the region on Thursday, but what the impact is remains uncertain. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, breezy. High 32-39.
Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 25-32.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny, clouds start to move in late in the day. High 37-44.
Tuesday night: Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 30-37, temperatures may hold steady or rise a little overnight.
Wednesday: Plenty of clouds, chance for a few showers. High 42-49.
Wednesday night: Cloudy. Low 30-37.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy, chance for a little snow or rain. High 39-46.
Thursday night: Mostly cloudy, breezy, chance of snow. Low 17-24.
Friday: Intervals of clouds and sun, breezy, any snow ends early. High 26-33.
Saturday: Partly sunny. High 31-38.
Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a little snow or rain. High 32-39.
A pair of storm systems will impact our weather over the next few days, but mostly with rain, not snow.
It’s been fairly dry so far this winter, so we’re still experiencing drought conditions across much of the region. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.
High pressure will slide off to the east tonight, with winds shifting into the southwest, bringing some milder air in. Friday will be relatively mild (by January standards), but clouds will be streaming in ahead of a low pressure system headed for the Great Lakes. As that system moves into Quebec some showers are likely ahead of it Friday evening before a cold front moves through overnight. That front will stall out south of New England allowing some cooler air to move back in. Meanwhile, another low pressure system will head towards the Great Lakes, trying to bring that front back northward as a warm front. As that system moves into Ontario, a secondary low pressure system will develop off the Mid-Atlantic coastline., preventing that warm front from moving in, and giving the new low pressure area a path eastward. This will bring more substantial and widespread rain in for late Saturday into Sunday morning. However, with the cold air in place, precipitation may start as some sleet or freezing rain well north and west of Boston, mainly interior southern New Hampshire and northern Worcester County, as the rain moves in later Saturday. A few additional rain or snow showers in the afternoon as an upper-level low pressure area crosses the Northeast, then high pressure builds in for Monday with cooler and drier conditions. For the Patriots game Sunday evening, it should be mostly cloudy at kickoff, winds out of the northwest at 5-10 mph, with a game time temperature around 37, dropping into the lower 30s by the end of the game.
Much of the area could receive between half an inch and one inch of rainfall this weekend. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Thursday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 22-29.
Friday: More clouds than sun, becoming breezy in the afternoon, showers possible towards evening. High 41-48.
Friday night: Cloudy with showers likely, mainly before midnight. Temperatures continue to rise until midnight, then drop to 33-40 by daybreak.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with rain developing from southwest to northeast, possibly starting as some sleet or freezing rain well north and west of Boston. High 40-47.
Saturday night: Any mixed precipitation changes to all well rain north and west of Boston, periods of rain elsewhere. Low 33-40.
Sunday: Rain ends by midday, mostly cloudy with a few more rain or snow showers possible late in the day. High 38-45.
Warmer weather is on the way, but first we’ll have to deal with some wintry weather.
A little snow is expected later today and tonight. Image provided by WeatherBell.
The week starts off on a chilly note, but a weak low pressure system heading our way will bring in some light snow this evening and overnight. Accumulations of a coating to 2″ are likely north of the Mass Pike, with less than 1″ south. The system moves offshore, but another one quickly follows by late Tuesday. Warmer air will be moving in aloft, which may result in some freezing rain developing Tuesday night north and west of Boston, with just rain showers elsewhere. The warmer air may take its time to move inland at the surface, so freezing rain may continue into the morning hours, before everything winds down towards early afternoon. High pressure briefly builds in for Thursday with milder conditions, then another system heads our way for the end of the week. This one should be just rain for most of the region, starting Friday afternoon, but probably not ending until a cold front moves through Saturday evening. It probably won’t be raining the entire time from Friday afternoon through Saturday evening, but there probably won’t be extended dry periods either. High pressure returns with colder weather for Sunday. An early look at the weather for kickoff of the Pats/Chargers playoff game Sunday evening shows dry weather with breezy conditions, temperatures in the middle to upper 30s, and wind chills in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
50s on Friday? It’s possible. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Monday: Some morning sun, then becoming cloudy with light snow developing late in the day. High 22-29.
Monday night: Mostly cloudy with light snow ending. Up to 2″ expected north of the Mass Pike, 1″ or less to the south. Low 17-24.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy, some rain possible by evening, freezing rain north and west of Boston. High 31-38, a little milder near the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Tuesday night: Freezing rain likely north and west of Boston, rain showers elsewhere. Low 27-34 during the evening, temperatures hold steady or rise a little overnight.
Wednesday: Freezing rain changing to rain showers before ending north and west, rain showers elsewhere ending in the afternoon. Some late-day clearing possible. High 38-45, a little warmer near the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Wednesday night: Becoming partly cloudy to clear. Low 26-33.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 39-46.
Thursday night: Increasing clouds. Low 25-32.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with showers developing. High 43-50.
Saturday: Cloudy with occasional showers, ending at night. High 44-51.
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 39-46.
Storm HQ 