Month: September 2025

Weekly/Tropical Outlook: September 29 – October 5, 2025

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There’s a four letter word that begins with the letter R and rhymes with main that we really need, but you won’t find it in our forecast for the next week.

None of the models are forecasting any rain around here for the next 7 days. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

The week starts off with high pressure in control, keeping us rather mild for the end of the September. A cold front will move through on Tuesday, but only a few clouds will accompany it. Behind it, strong high pressure builds in with gusty north to northeast winds bringing much cooler air in for Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, with Hurricane Humberto and Tropical Storm Imelda well offshore (more on them in a moment), the gradient between the large high and those systems will result in gusty winds towards the middle of the week. By the end of the week and the weekend, the high will slide off to the south, keeping us dry, but with temperatures getting back to near to above normal levels.

Temperatures will turn above normal once again for the end of the week and the weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Meanwhile, as previously mentioned, we have both Hurricane Humberto and Tropical Storm Imelda in the Atlantic at this time. While both storms could bring some adverse weather to Bermuda over the next few days, and they will both generate rough surf for the East Coast, they should both stay offshore, much to dismay of the Facebook Forecasters everywhere who were tossing around phrases like “Fujiwara Effect” without actually understanding what it meant.

Tropical Storm Imelda (lower left) and Hurricane Humberto (lower right) continue to churn up the Atlantic. Loop provided by NOAA.

As of 2am Monday, Hurricane Humberto was centered about 400 miles south-southwest of Bermuda, moving toward the northwest at 14 mph. After reaching Category 5 strength over the weekend, the storm was still a Category 4 system with maximum sustained winds near 140 mph. Humberto should turn northward passing west of Bermuda Monday night and Tuesday before turning northeastward. Humberto may produce some gusty winds and heavy rain across Bermuda, which is why a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. By Wednesday, Humberto will transition into an extratropical storm as it heads east-northeastward into the open waters of the Atlantic.

Forecast track for Hurricane Humberto. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Closer to the East Coast is Tropical Storm Imelda, crossing the Bahamas early this morning while moving northward at 8 mph. Imelda has maximum sustained winds near 45 mph, and has been very slow to get organized. It will continue to bring squally conditions to the northwestern and central Bahamas on Monday where a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. As Imelda heads northward, some heavy rain may impact coastal portions of the Carolinas. By Tuesday, the storm should make a hard right turn and pull away from the coast, while strengthening, possibly becoming a hurricane by midweek. The current forecast calls for Imelda to pass very close to Bermuda Wednesday night or Thursday as a hurricane, making for a very rough week for the British Overseas Territory. After that, it should also become an extratropical storm over the open waters of the Central Atlantic.

Imelda could become a threat to Bermuda later this week. Image provided by Polar Wx.

Monday: Sunshine dimmed by some afternoon high clouds. High 73-80.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 54-61.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. High 70-77.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy, becoming breezy. Low 44-51.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, breezy, cooler. High 59-66.

Wednesday night: Clear skies, breezy along the coast. Low 38-45.

Thursday: Plenty of sunshine, breezy in the morning. High 57-64.

Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 38-45.

Friday: More sunshine, milder. High 64-71.

Saturday: Sunny. High 70-77.

Sunday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 74-81.

Weekend/Tropical Outlook: September 26-29, 2025

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Quieter weather is on the way for the weekend around here, but the Atlantic is anything but quiet right now.

There are two active storms in the Atlantic, and a third one could form soon. Loop provided by NOAA.

A cold front will push offshore tonight, with the much-needed rain finally coming to an end. However, that front is going to stall out south of New England, so skies will only slowly start to clear out on Friday as high pressure builds in. Saturday looks to be a pretty nice day with sunshine and mild temperatures, however, another wave riding along that stalled out front will send some clouds back in by late in the day. While most of the rain associated with that wave will stay offshore, there is the chance that some showers could reach the South Coast Saturday night and early Sunday. As that wave starts to pull away on Sunday skies will only slowly clear out. High pressure returns on Monday with more sunshine and mild temperatures.

Most of the models keep the rain near or off the South Coast Saturday night and early Sunday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic, we have two named storms and a third that likely will be named in the next few days. We’ll start with Hurricane Gabrielle, which still has maximum sustained winds near 75 mph. It is centered about 385 miles west of the Azores, moving toward the east at 31 mph. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Azores at this time. Gabrielle will cross the Azores tonight and early Friday, then will likely become extratropical and weaken over cooler waters as it approaches the coast of Portugal this weekend.

Radar from the Azores shows Hurricane Gabrielle approaching the islands. Loop provided by Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School.

A little closer to home is Tropical Storm Humberto, which now has maximum sustained winds near 50 mph. It is centered about 465 miles east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving toward the northwest at 8 mph. Humberto is expected to strengthen into a hurricane on Friday, and could become a pretty potent storm this weekend as it passes well north of the Greater Antilles. The current forecast shows that it should turn more toward the northwest and eventually north as it reaches the western edge of a ridge of high pressure, passing west of Bermuda early next week. However, Humberto’s future isn’t quite that simple. We’ll get into that a bit more later.

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Humberto. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

The more immediate concern is with a tropical wave crossing Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos this afternoon. This system has been producing squally conditions across the northeastern Caribbean for the past day or two, and will continue to do so as it moves northwestward over the next few days. The system could consolidate into an area of low pressure tonight or Friday as it moves into the Bahamas. The storm may become a tropical depression or tropical storm this weekend, and if it does, it would be named Imelda. The future of this system is a lot murkier than the others. It will be traversing the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and upper-level conditions should be favorable, so the system could intensify pretty rapidly, but where it goes is still a giant question mark. Forecast models always struggle with systems that haven’t developed yet, and they already have a wide range of solutions for this system. Complicating that is the fact the Humberto will not be that far away, and there is the potential for the storms to interact with each other. This could alter the tracks of both storms,, making for even higher uncertainty that usual.

There is a considerable amount of uncertainty where the system goes once it gets past the Bahamas. Image provided by Polar Wx.

While the track will obviously dictate what effects this system would have on land, there are bigger concerns. A frontal system will stall out near the region, bringing some heavy rain into parts of the Mid-Atlantic states and the Carolinas. With this system likely to be at least nearby for a couple of days to start the week, there is the potential for some very heavy rain across parts of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states. In fact, some models show the potential for as much as 5-10 inches (or more) of rain over the next week. While the region has been in a drought, that much rain at once will likely lead to widespread significant flooding. Parts of this region experienced devastating flooding just one year ago from Hurricane Helene, and still have not recovered. This would be a significant setback to those recovery efforts.

Most of the models show some significant rainfall for the Carolinas over the next week. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Rain ending, remaining cloudy overnight. Low 60-67.

Friday: Morning clouds give way to some afternoon sunshine. High 74-81.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 55-62.

Saturday: Morning sun, then clouds return in the afternoon. High 71-78, coolest along the coast.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers, mainly near the South Coast. Low 55-62.

Sunday: Any linger showers near the South Coast end early, otherwise plenty of clouds with some afternoon sun developing, especially north of the Mass Pike. High 73-80.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 54-61.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 74-81.

Weekly Outlook: September 22-28, 2025

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Summer officially ends at the Autumnal Equinox at 2:19 this afternoon, but summer-like weather will continue beyond that.

Astronomical Fall begins with the Autumnal Equinox at 2:19pm today. Image provided by EarthSky.org

High pressure remains in control for today and part of Tuesday, keeping us dry, as has been the case for much of the summer. After a cool weekend, temperatures will start to moderate a bit today, but Tuesday will be rather warm and somewhat humid, with many locations likely topping 80. Clouds will start to move in during the day as a frontal system approaches the region. This will bring in some showers and possibly some thunderstorms late in the day and at night. As the front slows down, a wave of low pressure will ride along it on Wednesday, bringing in some additional showers along with much cooler temperatures. We do need the rain, and some models show the potential for some very beneficial amounts. However, for the most part, they have overestimated rainfall with several recent systems, plus there’s an old adage that usually holds true when talking about rainfall forecasts during a drought – “When in Drought, Leave it Out”. So, even though Wednesday will be a cool and damp day, it’s likely not going to be the widespread heavy rain that we need.

Temperatures could top 80 in many areas on Tuesday. Image provided by weathermodels.com.

High pressure builds in for Wednesday night and early Thursday with some drier air, but it won’t last long. An upper-level low pressure system and its surface reflection over the Great Lakes will start to slowly move into southeastern Canada toward the end of the week. The models are all over the place with the timing and strength of this system, but it looks like a second period of rainfall is expected possibly starting as early as Thursday afternoon, continuing into Friday night or possibly Saturday. Temperatures on Friday could be tricky. Several models show the system sending a warm front across the region, so even though we’re expecting more showers, temperatures could get well into the 70s. Of course, if the front gets hung up south of New England, temperatures may stay stuck in the 60s. We’re leaning towards the warmer scenario for now, but it is far from a lock. The system pulls away on Saturday then high pressure builds back in with drier air for Sunday.

Many models show the potential for a decent amount of rain between our two systems this week. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 68-75.

Monday night: Clear skies during the evening, becoming partly cloudy overnight. Low 54-61.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds through midday, then clouds thicken up in the afternoon with some late-day showers and thunderstorms develop. High 76-83.

Tuesday night: Cloudy with showers likely. Low 58-65.

Wednesday: Cloudy and cooler with more showers. High 66-73.

Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy, showers ending in the evening. Low 54-61.

Thursday: More clouds than sun, showers may redevelop in the afternoon. High 64-71.

Thursday night: Cloudy with showers likely. Low 55-62.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with additional showers, mainly in the morning. High 70-77.

Saturday: Morning clouds and a few showers across the Cape and Islands give way to some afternoon sunshine. High 70-77.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 68-75.

Weekend Outlook: September 19-22, 2025

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Astronomical Summer ends on Monday, and the final weekend of summer will feature quiet but cooler weather.

Drought conditions continue to worsen across the region. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

Skies clear out tonight as low pressure pulls away from the region, setting us up for a rather nice day on Friday. A cold front will cross the region with just a few clouds accompanying it, but ahead of it temperatures will get well into the 70s, with 80s in some spots. High pressure builds in with much cooler conditions for Friday night and Saturday. Saturday night will be rather chilly, with some of the normally colder spots dropping into the 30s. As the high slides off to the east temperatures will slowly moderate for Sunday and Monday with sunshine continuing. Summer officially ends and Fall begins on Monday at 2:19pm with the Autumnal Equinox.

Sunday morning could be on the chilly side. Image provided by weathermodels.com

Thursday night: Clear skies. Low 55-62.

Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 72-79.

Friday night: Clear and cooler. Low 44-51, milder in urban areas and right along the coast.

Saturday: Plenty of sunshine. High 63-70.

Saturday night: Clear and chilly. Low 40-47, milder in urban areas and right along the coast

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 64-71.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 45-52.

Monday: Mostly sunny. High 69-76.

Weekly Outlook: September 15-21, 2025

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We’re not going to get much, if any, relief for the drought this week across the majority of the region, but temperatures should remain comfortable.

Over the past 90 days, rainfall totals across the region are roughly 2-5 inches below average normal. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We start the week off with high pressure in control, giving us a couple of dry and warm days for Monday and Tuesday, with a seabreeze keeping coastal areas a little cooler, especially today. Wednesday and Thursday are the days with the most uncertainty at this point. We’ll still have high pressure to the north, but a low pressure area will be passing offshore. This will send in some clouds, but similar to last week’s system the question is how far north the rain shield will get. Some models keep it all offshore, several bring it up to the South Coast, some bring in farther inland. Given then the models overestimated how far inland it would get with the system last week, we’re inclined to think that the rain probably won’t get much farther inland than the South Coast, with most of it falling Wednesday night into early Thursday. The system pulls away later Thursday, then a cold front drops down from the north on Friday. The models show most of the rain with the front drying up before it gets here, so the front should move through with little fanfare on Friday. Behind it, high pressure returns with much cooler air on Saturday, though temperatures should start to moderate a bit on Sunday.

Most of the models keep what little rain we’re expecting close to the South Coast late Wednesday into Thursday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Areas of morning fog, otherwise partly to mostly sunny. High 71-78, a little cooler along the coast.

Monday night: Partly cloudy, areas of fog developing. Low 50-57.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 70-77, a little cooler along the coast.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 50-57.

Wednesday: More clouds than sun, chance for a few showers, mainly near the South Coast. High 69-76.

Wednesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers near the South Coast. Low 54-61.

Thursday: Morning clouds, maybe a shower near the South Coast, becoming mostly sunny during the afternoon. High 75-82, a little cooler across Cape Cod.

Thursday night: Mostly clear. Low 55-62.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 76-83.

Saturday: Plenty of sunshine, cooler. High 63-70.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 65-72.

Weekend Outlook: September 12-15, 2025

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We’ve got a couple of very nice days coming up across the region.

Average high temperatures for mid-September are in the lower to middle 70s. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

A weak cold front moves through this evening with little fanfare, then high pressure builds in with sunshine and cooler temperatures for Friday and Saturday. An upper-level disturbance moves through on Sunday with some showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Monday is a bit of a tricky forecast. Some models showed an upper-level low pressure area hanging around with more clouds and possibly some additional showers, but more recent trends have been for high pressure to build back in with drier weather.

The showers on Sunday will not make much of a difference for the ongoing drought. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Evening clouds, then becoming clear. Low 52-59.

Friday: Plenty of sunshine. High 67-74.

Friday night: Clear skies. Low 47-54.

Saturday: Morning sunshine with some afternoon clouds. High 70-77.

Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Low 52-59.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun with some showers likely in the afternoon. High 71-78.

Sunday night: Any showers end in the evening, clearing overnight. Low 52-59.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 69-76.

Weekly Outlook: September 8-14, 2025

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Much of the upcoming week will be dominated by quiet and cool weather thanks to a large high pressure area.

Temperatures will be several degrees below normal for much of the week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The cold front that produced severe weather on Saturday and a cool but beneficial rainfall on Sunday has pushed offshore and high pressure will build in bringing drier air in along with temperatures that are below normal for today and Tuesday. Things could get a little complicated for part of the region for Wednesday. An area of low pressure will pass well offshore, but the precipitation shield around the edge of the system could get close to parts of the South Coast, possibly even a little farther northward. However, the high to the north looks like it may remain strong enough to keep most of the rain offshore, so we’re going to lean towards a dry forecast for now. High pressure returns for the end of the week and start of the weekend. A cold front will move through with little fanfare on Sunday, keeping us dry.

An offshore system may produce some rain across Cape Cod and the South Coast, or maybe it won’t. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Partly sunny. High 66-73.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 47-54.

Tuesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, breezy near the coast. High 66-73.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 49-56.

Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for a few showers near the South Coast and Cape Cod. High 65-72.

Wednesday night: Any showers end in the evening, becoming partly cloudy to clear. Low 50-57.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 73-80.

Thursday night: Clear skies. Low 50-57.

Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 65-72.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 66-73.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 68-75.

Weekend Outlook: September 5-8, 2025

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Even though the calendar says September it’s still astronomical summer, and it will feel like it for the next few days.

Dewpoints will be near or over 70 Saturday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

After a strong of rather nice days changes are on the way. A warm front will cross the region tonight, possibly accompanied by a few showers before daybreak on Friday. Once the front lifts northward, we’ve got warm and humid weather on the way for much of Friday and Saturday, with temperatures getting into the 80s along the coast, and dewpoints creeping back into the 60s or even lower 70s. For the most part it will be mostly sunny on Friday after the clouds move out in the morning, with some patchy fog Friday night. During the day on Saturday we’ll see clouds start to move back in ahead of an approaching cold front. The trend in the models recently has been to slow down this front, so for now, it looks like we’ll stay dry for most of the day Saturday. Some showers and thunderstorms will start to move in towards evening from west to east, with showers likely during the overnight hours. Sunday’s forecast is a little uncertain at this point. The showers should end during the morning, but some models continue to slow down the front with the showers not ending until afternoon from Boston southward, and possibly not until Sunday evening near the South Coast and Cape Cod. This will have an impact on temperatures as well, since the longer it rains, the less chance temperatures will warm up in the afternoon. With the Patriots season opener kicking off in Foxborough at 1:00 PM, any rain could impact not only playing conditions to start the game, but also tailgating beforehand. The front should push offshore at night, with high pressure building in for Monday with cooler and drier weather.

Most of the models aren’t forecasting a lot of rain for the weekend, but every little bit helps to fight the drought. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Increasing clouds, chance for a few late-night showers. Low 58-65.

Friday: Morning clouds, maybe a shower, then becoming partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and humid. High 78-85.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy, a little patchy fog may develop. Low 62-69.

Saturday: A sunny start, then clouds move in during the afternoon, showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day well north and west of Boston, breezy. High 81-88, cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Saturday night: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Low 57-64, possibly a little warmer across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod.

Sunday: Showers gradually ending from northwest to southeast, some late-day sunny breaks develop well north and west of Boston. High 67-74.

Sunday night: Gradual clearing. Low 50-57.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 68-75.

Weekly Outlook: September 1-7, 2025

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Happy Labor Day and welcome to September. It marks the unofficial end of summer and the official start of meteorological autumn. College football is underway, the pros start this week, hockey training camps start up in a couple of weeks, pumpkin everything is available everywhere, and after a cool August, warmer weather will return for a few days this week.

Temperatures were below normal across much of the Northeast during August. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

High pressure will keep us dry for the first half of the week, likely right into Thursday, but with an upper-level low nearby, we’ll still have some afternoon clouds each afternoon. Temperatures will be close to normal for early September to start the week, but as the high slides offshore, southwest winds will bring warmer and eventually more humid air in towards Wednesday and Thursday. A slow-moving cold front will move in Thursday night, with some showers and a few thunderstorms likely on Friday. With the front taking its time, Saturday may also be a warm and humid day, with the potential for some additional showers or thunderstorms, depending on when the front actually moves across the region. High pressure should build in behind the front for Sunday with cooler and drier weather, just in time for the Patriots home opener in Foxborough.

We’re not expecting a lot of rain with the cold front at the end of the week, but every little bit helps as the drought worsens. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Partly sunny. High 71-78, coolest along the coast.

Monday night: Partly cloudy with some patchy fog possible. Low 52-59.

Tuesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 72-79, coolest along the coast.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 51-58.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 74-81, coolest along the coast.

Wednesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 53-60.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy. High 75-82, coolest along the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Thursday night: Becoming cloudy, showers possible late at night. Low 57-64.

Friday: More clouds than sun with showers and a few thunderstorms likely, breezy, humid. High 73-80.

Saturday: Partly sunny, humid, a few additional showers or thunderstorm possible, breezy. High 75-82.

Sunday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny, drier. High 70-77.