The heat and humidity are gone, with cool and damp weather return, the hot and humid weather could make a return by the end of the weekend.
Temperatures are 20-30 degrees colder this afternoon than they were at this time yesterday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
The front that ended the heat wave moved through yesterday and has settled offshore, with high pressure building in to the north. This has shifted winds into the east and northeast, bringing much cooler air in, and it will hang around into Friday. As disturbances ride along the front, we’ll have episodes of showers into Saturday, though the vast majority of the time will remain dry. As the high slides offshore, winds will start to shift into south and southwest on Saturday, allowing temperatures to warm into the 70s in many areas, especially south of the Mass Pike, though we’ll still have plenty of clouds and a few showers, especially north of the Mass Pike, but dewpoints will climb back into the 60s, perhaps even lower 70s across the region. We should see a little more in the way of sunshine on Sunday, allowing temperatures to get back into the 80s in many areas. By Monday, the very warm and humid weather will return, with highs well into the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s and lower 70s across much of the region resulting in another moderately uncomfortable day.
Most (but not all) of the models show drier weather moving in Saturday afternoon. Images provided by Pivotal Weather,
Thursday night: Plenty of clouds with a few showers possible. Low 56-63.
Friday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, slight chance for a shower. High 66-73.
Friday night: Mostly cloudy with some showers likely. Low 55-62.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for more showers, mainly in the morning. High 73-80 south of the Mass Pike, 65-72 north of the Pike.
Saturday night: More clouds with a few more showers possible. Low 60-67.
Sunday: Becoming partly sunny. High 75-82.
Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 58-66.
Monday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 81-88, cooler across Cape Cod.
The first half of the week is looking quite toasty, but the second half looks quite unsettled. There’s also the chance the first tropical depression of the season in the Atlantic could develop.
A large ridge of high pressure will bring heat and humidity to much of the East to start the week. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
A ridge of high pressure will remain in place across the Eastern US to start the week, resulting in some very warm to hot and humid conditions. Temperatures will soar well into the 90s in many areas today with sunny skies, but a seabreeze will keep coastal areas a little cooler, mainly in the 80s. When you factor in dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s, it’s going to feel like it is over 100 degrees outside, away from the coastline. Temperatures only drop into the 70s at night, setting us a brutally hot and humid day on Tuesday. Temperatures should be well into the 90s across much of the region, and it isn’t out of the question that a few places get close to 100 degrees. Again, with the humidity factored in, it will feel likely 100 to 110 once again. Wednesday is the transition day, as a weak backdoor cold front begins to drop down from the north. Inland areas will still be hot, likely topping 90 once again, but coastal areas may stay in the 80s as winds become onshore. A few showers or thunderstorms may accompany the front, bringing some relief from the heat.
The heat index will be over 100 across much of the region Tuesday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.
That front should settle off to the south later Wednesday before stalling out, bringing an end to the heat and allowing much cooler air to settle into the region. As weak disturbances ride along the front, we’ll have episodes of showers and times between Thursday and Sunday. None of the days should be a washout, but it will definitely be cooler and wetter than the first half of the week, with temperatures likely below normal for the end of June. Sunday may actually turn out to be a decent day, with a lesser chance for showers and the potential for some milder temperatures.
The latter half of the week and the weekend will feature below normal temperatures. Image provided by weathermodels.com
Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 90-97 inland, 82-89 along the coast, a little cooler across the Outer Cape.
Monday night: Mostly clear, a little patchy fog possible near the South Coast and Cape Cod. Low 69-76, a little cooler across Cape Cod.
Tuesday: Sunny, hot, and humid, just a slight chance for a late-day shower or thunderstorm. High 93-100, cooler across Cape Cod and the immediate South Coast.
Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 71-78, cooler across Cape Cod.
Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a shower. High 87-94, cooler along the immediate coast and across Cape Cod.
Wednesday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers. Low 62-69.
Thursday: More clouds than sunshine with some showers possible. High 71-78.
Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a shower. Low 57-64.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with some showers likely. High 68-75.
Saturday: Plenty of clouds, chance for more showers. High 71-78.
Sunday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a shower. High 75-82.
Meanwhile, in the tropics, there is the chance that our first tropical depression of the season could be forming. A weak area of low pressure has developed a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. It is generating some thunderstorms, and conditions are marginally favorable for a little development today, then conditions become a little more hostile after that. Given that we are past the average date of the first tropical storm in the Atlantic (June 20), and there hasn’t been anything even resembling an organized system yet, the folks at the National Hurricane Center are probably bouncing off the walls with nothing to do, so they’ll probably end up naming this, even though it’s not purely tropical and won’t be around for more than 12-24 hours.
Low pressure east of Bermuda is being monitored for development. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
We’ve got a fairly complicated forecast for the final days of Spring and initial days of Summer.
The heat index will reach the middle to upper 90s across much of the region on Thursday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
A warm and humid airmass has settled into the region, and it will be here into Thursday. We’ll have plenty of clouds through the evening with a few showers and possibly a rumble of thunder as a weak disturbance moves across the region. These showers should end before midnight, then we’ll see some fog developing. Once the fog burns off Thursday morning a hot and humid day is expected under partly to mostly sunny skies. Gusty southwest winds will help send temperatures into the upper 80s and lower 90s in much of the region, except along the South Coast and Cape Cod, where winds off the water will keep temperatures a little cooler. Dewpoints well get into the 60s and lower 70s, resulting in the heat index reaching the middle to upper 90s in many areas. A Heat Advisory has been issued for parts of the region as a result.
Severe weather is possible in the Northeast Thursday with damaging winds the greatest threat. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
A cold front will move across the region late in the day, triggering some showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening. A few of these storms may produce strong winds, heavy downpours and some hail, but it looks like the best chance for severe storms will be off to our west. If the front were to move in a little faster than we currently expect, the odds for severe weather would rise, since it would be arriving around the time of maximum heating. Behind the front, drier air settles in for Friday, and while it won’t be as hot, it will still be quite warm. As we get to Saturday, it looks like we will finally break our streak of wet Saturdays with sunshine, mild temperatures, and lower humidity, but that doesn’t mean the entire weekend will be dry.
A cluster of thunderstorms could rumble across the region before daybreak Sunday, Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
Forecast models have been showing the potential for a cluster of potent thunderstorms to develop across the Northern Plains Friday evening which would then race across the Northern Great Lakes on Saturday before diving into New England after midnight Saturday night. While they should be weakening by the time they get here, don’t be surprised if you’re awakened early Sunday morning by frequent lightning and some heavy downpours. Once those storms move offshore, skies will become partly to mostly sunny again with another dry and warm day expected. Things change again by Monday. A ridge of high pressure will start to build in, resulting in heat and humidity returning on Monday, and possibly for at least a few more days beyond that heading into next week. We’ll have more on that in our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning.
The first half of next week could be quite toasty around here. Image provided by weathermodels.com
Wednesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers during the evening, areas of fog develop overnight, muggy. Low 61-68.
Thursday: Becoming mostly sunny, hot, and humid, showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day, breezy. High 87-94, cooler along the South Coast and across Cape Cod.
Thursday night: Showers and thunderstorms expected during the evening, clearing overnight, breezy. Low 61-68.
Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds, not as humid, still breezy. High 76-83.
Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 58-65.
Saturday: Sunshine with some afternoon clouds. High 80-87, cooler across Cape Cod.
Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers and thunderstorms possible after midnight. Low 61-68.
Sunday: Showers and storms end early, then a mix of sun and clouds. High 81-88, cooler across Cape Cod.
Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 63-70.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny, hot, and humid. High 87-94, cooler along the South Coast and across Cape Cod.
Astronomical summer begins Friday night (10:41pm EDT to be exact), but we’re going to have some summer weather for a good portion of the upcoming week.
Temperatures could reach 90 in some spots on Thursday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
We’re starting the week off with high pressure in control, keeping us dry, but temperatures will remain a little below normal for mid-June, but changes are coming. Low pressure heading into southern Canada will send a warm front our way on Tuesday, but it likely doesn’t arrive until nighttime, keeping us on the cool side once again. There could be a few showers ahead of a warm front, but most of us should stay dry. The warm front moves through, setting up a much warmer and more humid day on Wednesday. Again, there is a chance for a few widely scattered showers or thunderstorms, but they shouldn’t be that common. Thursday, however, could be an interesting day weather-wise. A cold front will be approaching the region from the west. Ahead of it, it will be a very warm and humid day, and with the approaching front, some showers and thunderstorms are likely. There are several factors we need to pay attention to, the biggest one being the timing of the front, but the potential exists for some strong to severe storms. We’ll keep an eye on this, and will post an update on Wednesday if severe weather looks more likely. Behind the front, dry and somewhat cooler air settles in for Friday, though an upper-level disturbance moving through could trigger another pop-up shower or two. This brings us to Saturday, and for the first time in a while, it looks like it will be dry. There’s plenty of time for things to change, but our stretch of wet Saturdays *could* be ending this week. Another weak system may bring in a few showers or thunderstorms on Sunday.
For now, the models are indicating that Saturday may stay dry around here. Images provided by Pivotal Weather,
Monday: Intervals of clouds and sun. High 69-76, coolest along the coast.
Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, slight chance for a shower, patchy fog may develop. Low 53-60.
Tuesday: More clouds than sun, chance for a few showers. High 68-75, coolest along the coast.
Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with a few showers, mainly during the evening, fog may redevelop. Low 56-63.
Wednesday: Becoming partly sunny, a shower is possible. High 76-83, a little cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy, patchy fog possible. Low 62-69.
Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon, breezy. High 84-91, cooler along the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Thursday night: Showers and storms ending in the evening, then becoming clear. Low 61-68.
Friday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, slight chance for a shower. High 77-84.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 77-84.
Sunday: Partly sunny, chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 81-88, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
The calendar says it’s mid-June, but the forecast feels like Groundhog Day, because for the 13th week in a row, we’re here to tell you that it’s going to rain on Saturday.
No matter which model you look at, they all have rain for at least part of the region Saturday morning. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
After a warm day today we have a cold front moving through with just some clouds and possibly a stray shower through the evening. That front will settle just offshore and stall out, with cooler weather filtering in behind it for Friday, with temperatures running 10-15 degrees cooler than today, close to or a little below where we should be in mid-June. Friday should be dry, with sunshine filtered through some high clouds. A weak area of low pressure will ride along the front Friday night and early Saturday, bringing some rain into the region along with rather cool conditions. The rain should taper off during the morning, but east winds off the Atlantic will keep clouds in place Saturday afternoon with a little drizzle at times, and temperatures only in the 60s, possibly upper 50s near the coast. For Sunday and Monday, we’ll be stuck in between high pressure to the north and another weak low pressure system riding along that front to our south. The result will be plenty of clouds, possibly a few showers, and temperatures remaining on the cool side, though Monday will likely be a little milder. The good news is that temperatures should warm up quite a bit as we get towards the middle of next week.
Temperatures will be cooler than normal for the next few days. Image provided by weathermodels.com
Thursday night: Slight chance for a shower near the South Coast during the evening, otherwise clear to partly cloudy with increasing clouds late at night. Low 55-62.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 72-79, a little cooler across Cape Cod.
We’ve got a fairly typical week of weather for mid-June coming up across the region.
Thursday looks like the warmest day this week with many locations likely getting well into the 80s. Image provided by WeatherBell.
We start the week off on a cloudy and cool note with a warm front off to our south and a weak upper-level disturbance moving through, possibly producing a few widely scattered showers. The warm front moves through late tonight and early Tuesday as low pressure passes north and west of the region. This will result in a warmer and more humid day, with some showers and thunderstorms expected ahead of a cold front trailing that low pressure system. Behind that front high pressure builds in with warmer and drier weather for Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures well into the 70s, with some 80s, especially on Thursday. Although we’ll have sunshine, smoke from Canadian wildfires may result in hazy skies both days, and my keep temperatures a little lower than we are currently expecting.
Smoke from Canadian wildfires will impact much of the Northeast on Wednesday. Image provided by NASA.
The end of the week is a lot more uncertain at this point. We’ll have a big high pressure area across southeastern Canada, and a frontal system stalled out south of New England, with waves of low pressure riding along it. Where that front stalls out and has the waves move through determines when (or if), we get any rain (and how much) next weekend. Friday should be a mostly dry day with the front moving through, though there could be a few showers accompanying it. It’s the weekend that has the most uncertainty. Some models keep Saturday dry, some have some showers, some heave steadier rain especially late in the day. Sunday is fairly similar, with some models showing a decent amount of rain, some having just some showers, and some keeping us mostly dry. Temperatures will also be dependent on the position of the front and waves riding along it, along with the timing and amount of any rainfall. Don’t go cancelling any weekend plans just yet as it’s still several days away and there’s a lot of uncertainty, but have a backup plan ready just in case.
Are we in for yet another rainy Saturday? It remains to be seen. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Areas of morning fog, otherwise mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. High 63-70, coolest along the coast.
Monday night: Overcast with a few showers and some dense fog possible. Low 53-60.
Tuesday: Plenty of clouds with showers and some thunderstorms. High 67-74.
Tuesday night: Showers end in the evening followed by clearing after midnight. Low 55-62.
Wednesday: Plenty of sunshine, breezy. High 76-83, a little cooler across Cape Cod.
Wednesday night: Mostly clear. Low 60-67.
Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, breezy. High 78-85, a little cooler across Cape Cod.
Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 56-63.
Friday: Intervals of clouds and sun. High 72-79.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with some showers possible. High 65-72.
Sunday: More clouds than sun with a chance for more showers. High 65-72.
Someone call Ripley, because Believe It or Not, there’s rain in the forecast for part of the weekend.
More rain is expected for parts of the region Friday and Saturday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
After a hot and somewhat humid day today, changes are on the way as a slow-moving cold front makes its way toward the region. We’ll see clouds become more numerous tonight and Friday, with some showers and thunderstorms likely on Friday, especially in the afternoon, and mainly north of the Mass Pike. Some of these storms may produce strong winds and heavy rain which could lead to areas of flooding, so if you’ve got outdoor plans, keep an eye on the radar. It’ll still be quite warm and humid, but not as hot as today.
Some severe storms are possible on Friday, especially across the interior. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.
The cold front finally moves through on Saturday, accompanied by some additional showers, but they shouldn’t be that heavy. They’ll also be accompanied by cooler temperatures behind the front. Sunday will be the pick of the weekend as high pressure builds in with more comfortable conditions, though there will still be some clouds around as an upper-level disturbance crosses the region. We also have more smoke from Canadian wildfires drifting in on Sunday, resulting in hazy skies at times. Monday is a little uncertain at the moment. Many of the models had been showing high pressure remaining in control with a weak low pressure system passing well to the south, but some of those models are bringing the system a lot farther northward now, possibly bringing in more showers on Monday. We’re going to be cautiously optimistic for now that it should remain mostly dry, but with low confidence.
Will high pressure or low pressure be in control on Monday? Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, a few showers or thunderstorms possible during the evening. Low 61-68.
Friday: Some morning sun, otherwise becoming mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms developing, some could produce heavy downpours and strong winds. High 78-85, cooler along the coast.
Friday night: Mostly cloudy, showers and thunderstorms wind down before midnight. Low 57-64.
Saturday: Plenty of clouds with more showers likely. High 70-77.
Saturday night: Any lingering showers end in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Low 54-61.
Sunday: Intervals of clouds and hazy sunshine. High 70-77, cooler across Cape Cod.
“Summer’s here and the time is right for dancing in the street”
Climatological summer began yesterday, and we’ve got some summer-like weather finally on the way.
Thursday looks to be the warmest day this week. Image provided by WeatherBell.
We have one more cool day today as low pressure continues to slowly pull away from the region. With northwest winds, temperatures will be a little below normal for early June, and we’ll still have some clouds around, especially in the afternoon, with an upper-level low pressure area nearby. Things start to change for Tuesday though with high pressure building in. We’ll have more sunshine, and southwest winds will start to usher milder air in. Winds aloft will still be out of the northwest, so we could see some smoke aloft from Canadian wildfires start to drift in, resulting in some hazy conditions in the afternoon. Wednesday should be a little warm and also a bit more humid, but still comfortable, but we’ll have a better chance for hazy skies as more smoke flows in from the wildfires in central Canada.
Models show the highest concentration of smoke over our area around midday Wednesday. Image provided by weathermodels.com.
By Thursday a cold front will begin to approach from the northwest, but ahead of it should be the warmest and most humid day of the week, temperatures likely reaching or exceeding 90 in many areas away from the South Coast, and dewpoints should get into the 60s in many locations. That front may trigger some showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. The front will stall out nearby, with keeping temperatures on the mild side for Friday, but not as warm as the previous few days. A wave of low pressure riding along the front may bring some additional showers and thunderstorms later Friday into Saturday. We know, another Saturday with rain. Save your complaints, we only tell you what to expect, we can’t control it. The front finally pulls offshore later Saturday, and high pressure builds in for Sunday with cooler and drier conditions.
Another Saturday with some rain? The models are leaning that way right now. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 64-71.
Monday night: Clear skies. Low 46-53.
Tuesday: Plenty of sunshine, becoming hazy late in the day. High 71-78, cooler across Cape Cod.
Tuesday night: Clear skies, hazy. Low 51-58.
Wednesday: Sunshine filtered through smoke and haze. High 80-87, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Wednesday night: Clear skies, hazy. Low 57-64.
Thursday: Partly sunny, still hazy at times, chance for some late-day showers and thunderstorms. High 84-91, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Thursday night: Any showers or storms end in the evening, otherwise partly cloudy. Low 60-67.
Friday: Becoming mostly cloudy, showers developing late in the day. High 78-85, cooler across Cape Cod.
Saturday: Plenty of clouds with some showers likely, tapering off late in the day. High 72-79, cooler across Cape Cod.
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 71-78, cooler across Cape Cod.
Stop us if you’ve heard this before, but there’s some rain on the way for part of the weekend.
Rainfall has been above normal across the region for most of climatological Spring. Image provided by weathermodels.com
A weak low pressure area pulls away from the region tonight, taking any lingering showers with it. Friday looks like a decent day with some sunshine and warm temperatures, but a weak disturbance moving across the region could produce a shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon. After that, we turn our attention to an area of low pressure heading this way from the southwest. It will bring in some rain for Friday night and Saturday morning, some of which could be heavy, though it looks like the heaviest rain will stay just west of our area. We get into a bit of a lull Saturday afternoon, then another disturbance brings in more showers and possible some thunderstorms Saturday evening and night. High pressure starts to build in on Sunday with drier and cooler weather, but with an upper-level low also moving in, we’ll see some clouds and possibly a popup shower or two. Monday should be the nicest day of this stretch, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures running a little below normal for this time of year.
Most of the models are depicting some heavy rainfall totals for parts of New England this weekend. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Sunday marks not only the beginning of climatological summer, but also the start of hurricane season. While there’s nothing imminent, we did take a look at what to expect this season and explained how extremely overdue we are for a storm to head towards New England and our annual start of hurricane season post that was published yesterday.
Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, any lingering showers end in the evening. Low 51-58.
Friday: Becoming partly sunny, chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 69-76, cooler along the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Friday night: Mostly cloudy with rain developing, possibly heavy overnight. Low 52-59.
Saturday: Rain tapers off in the morning, some sunny breaks may develop in the afternoon. High 64-71.
Saturday night: Mostly cloudy with another round of showers and thunderstorms, ending overnight. Low 47-54.
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a shower, breezy. High 61-68.
Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 45-52.
Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 65-72.
Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on Sunday June 1 and runs through November 30, and indications are that it shouldn’t be as active as last year.
List of names for storms that form during the 2025 Hurricane Season. Image provided by NOAA.
The 2024 season was an above normal season by the numbers, with 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. The season got off to a slower start than recent years, with only 3 storms through the beginning of August, and 5 through Labor Day, but 8 named storms formed in a 4 week span between September 9 and October 5. Hurricane Helene made the most headlines, hitting the Big Bend region of Florida area as a Category 4 hurricane on September 27, producing catastrophic wind damage and flooding in parts of the Carolinas. Hurricane Milton was the strongest storm of the season, reaching Category 5 intensity. The estimated minimum pressure in the storm of 895mb tied it with 2005’s Hurricane Rita for the 4th lowest pressure in the Atlantic Basin. Milton made landfall near Siesta Key, Florida on October 9 as a Category 3 hurricane. The other storms to make landfall in the US were Hurricane Beryl in central Texas on July 8, Hurricane Debby which hit the Florida Big Bend on August 5, and Hurricane Francine, which hit Louisiana on September 11. The 5 US hurricane landfalls is the most since 2020, when 6 hurricanes struck the United States. That year also featured 2 major hurricane landfalls, just like 2024. In 2021, a total of 8 tropical systems made landfall in the United States, but only 2 at hurricane strength. That includes 2 tropical storms that made landfall in New England that summer – Elsa and Henri. Both Elsa and Henri each made landfall near Westerly, Rhode Island about 6 weeks apart. This was just the 5th time since 1851 that two tropical systems made landfall in Southern New England or Long Island in the same year, and only the 2nd time (1961 being the other), that both storms were only tropical storm strength. (We’ll have more info on New England tropical systems a little later in this post).
2024 was another active hurricane season. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Forecasts for the upcoming season are calling for a season that features near to above normal activity, though conditions are not nearly as favorable as they were at this time last year. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are considerably cooler, especially in the Main Development Region. In terms of ENSO, last year’s La Nina has faded and we are now in a neutral phase, which is not as favorable for storm development. NOAA issued their seasonal hurricane outlook on May 22, and it calls for a 60 percent chance for an above normal season, a 30 percent chance for a near normal season, and a 10 percent chance for a below normal season. Most of the other hurricane outlooks issued by various outlets are also expecting an above normal season, due to the signals mentioned above. An average season consists of 14.4 named storms, of which 7.2 become hurricanes and 3.2 become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale). NOAA’s forecast for this season calls for 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State, the first group to forecast how active a hurricane season would be, originally led by the late Dr. Bill Gray, will issue their updated forecast on June 11. Their initial forecast from April called for an above average season, with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. They also pegged the chance at a storm making landfall in the Massachusetts at 40% (33% is the average in any given year), and the odds of a hurricane making landfall in Massachusetts at 18% (14% is the average). Overall, 8 of the past 9 hurricane seasons have featured above normal activity across the Atlantic.
Forecasters are expecting another active hurricane season. Image provided by NOAA.
Despite the early start for the many of the past several years, the average date for the first named storm in the Atlantic is still June 20, and the average date for the first hurricane is August 11. Over 97% of all named storms in the Atlantic form between June 1 and November 30. Most early season storms tend to be on the weaker side. A hurricane hasn’t made landfall in the United States before July 1 since Hurricane Bonnie came ashore as a minimal hurricane near the Texas/Louisiana border on June 26, 1986.
Based on climatology, the most likely spots for an early season storm are off the Southeast coast, in the Gulf of Mexico, or the northwestern Caribbean. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
The number of storms that form in any given season has no correlation on how many storms (if any) will impact the United States. In 2010, 19 named storms were observed in the Atlantic, 12 of them became hurricanes, and 5 were major hurricanes. Only one storm made landfall in the United States, and that was Bonnie, which was a minimal tropical storm at landfall. In 1990, there were a total 14 named storms, 8 of them hurricanes and 1 major hurricane. Not a single one of them made landfall in the United States. On the flip side, only 7 named storms formed in 1992, and the first one didn’t develop until August 16. That storm, however, was named Andrew, and it made landfall just south of Miami as a category 5 storm. It only takes one storm to ruin your entire year.
Map showing the track of all of the hurricanes that crossed New England since 1851. Image provided by NOAA.
Here in New England, we should always pay attention when a storm is nearing the Bahamas, as those are the ones that have the potential to impact us, and we are extremely overdue for a hurricane to make landfall. Using the HURDAT database which has data back to 1851, here are some stats that show exactly how overdue we are:
Since 1851, 39 storms of tropical storm strength of greater have made landfall in New England or Long Island, an average of one every 4.5 years. The longest we’ve ever gone without one is 11 years, between 1897 and 1908 and also between 1923 and 1934. In 2021, we had two tropical storms (Elsa and Henri) make landfall in the region, so it’s been 4 years, which means we are due for another.
Since 1851, 32 strong tropical storms (maximum sustained winds of 60 mph or more) have made landfall in New England or Long Island, an average of one every 5.4 years. The longest we’ve ever gone without one is 19 years, between 1897 and 1916. In 2021, we had two strong tropical storms (Elsa and Henri) make landfall in the region.
Since 1851, a hurricane has made landfall in New England or Long Island 18 times, an average of one every 9.7 years. The longest we’ve ever gone between hurricane landfalls is 38 years, between 1896 and 1934. It’s now been 34 years since Hurricane Bob, our 2nd longest drought on record.
Since 1851, 8 hurricanes of Category 2 intensity or stronger have made landfall in New England or Long Island, an average of one every 21.8 years. The longest we’ve gone between hits by storms of that intensity is 69 years, between 1869 and 1938. We’re at 34 years since Bob, the last one to do so.
Since 1851, New England/Long Island has had 3 Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) make landfall – an unnamed storm in October of 1869 that grazed the eastern tip of Long Island before making landfall just west of Charlestown, RI; the infamous 1938 Long Island Express that made landfall near Brookhaven, NY and then again near New Haven, CT; and Hurricane Carol in 1954 which crossed East Hampton, NY and then made a 2nd landfall near Groton, CT. That’s an average of 1 every 58 years, and we’re now at 71 years since Carol, making this the longest stretch on record. There are also 3 documented storms from before 1851 – The Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635, the 1815 New England Hurricane, and the Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane of 1821. That’s it. That changes the numbers to 6 in 390 years, or one every 65 years, with a longest drought of 180 years.
Satellite photo of Hurricane Bob approaching New England. Bob was the last hurricane to make landfall in New England – 34 years ago. Image provided by NOAA.
We all saw what Sandy did back in 2012, and that was a minimal hurricane that eventually made landfall in southern New Jersey (technically as an extratropical storm), though there were other factors that led to the amount of damage it caused. When (not if) the next big storm comes up the coast, much of this region will not be prepared for the storm or its aftermath. A storm doesn’t need to make a direct hit on New England to have significant impacts. In addition to Sandy, the so-called “Perfect Storm” in 1991 was an offshore system that became a hurricane and battered the coastline with strong winds and significant coastal impacts for a few days around Halloween. In 1955, Hurricane Connie and Tropical Storm Diane both made landfall in North Carolina 5 days apart. Connie tracked into the eastern Great Lakes, but still produced some heavy rain in New England, especially western New England. A few days later, Diane passed just south of New England on its way out to sea, but produced widespread rainfall totals of 5-15 inches across most of southern New England, with 19.75″ in Westfield, Massachusetts. The combination of these back-to-back storms resulted in some of the worst flooding this region has ever seen.
Rainfall totals from Tropical Storm Diane in August, 1995. Image provided by NOAA.
The Atlantic is quiet right now, but even if something were to form off the East Coast in the next few weeks and head this way, the waters off of New England are still much too cold to sustain a tropical system, so we’d see something more like a typical nor’easter. Only two tropical storms have ever made landfall in the Northeast before the end of June. The first was an unnamed minimal tropical storm that crossed extreme eastern Long Island and went into southeastern Connecticut on May 30, 1908. The other was Tropical Storm Agnes, which made landfall near New York City on June 22, 1972, then caused devastating flooding across parts of the Mid-Atlantic states. In terms of hurricanes, the earliest one to ever make landfall up this way was Hurricane Belle, which slammed into Long Island as a minimal hurricane with 75 mph winds on August 9, 1976. We did have Hurricane Arthur pass just offshore of Nantucket on July 4, 2014. While it did not make landfall, it made for a rather wet and cool holiday, especially across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts. Statistically, the most likely time for a hurricane to hit New England is between the middle of August and late September. Of the 18 hurricanes that made landfall in New England or Long Island since 1851, 15 of them have done so between August 19 and September 27.
The most likely time for a tropical system to impact our area is August of September. Image provided by the National Weather Service office in Norton, MA.
As always, you should get your weather information from a trusted source (hopefully you trust us), especially when dealing with tropical systems. Much like with snowstorms in the winter, there will be plenty of hype and exaggeration on Twitter and Facebook, as well as people posting doom and gloom maps showing how a thunderstorm near the coast of Africa will develop into a Category 5 storm and head right for the East Coast in the next 2 weeks. We’re not among that group, we give you facts and our best forecasts, without any hype. If there’s reason to worry, we’ll let you know with plenty of advance warning. It’s always best to prepare ahead of the season. Chances are, you won’t have anything to worry about, but in case you do, it’s always good to be prepared.
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