Weekly Outlook: September 16-22, 2024

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A couple more dry and warm days are coming up, but changes are coming later this week.

Much cooler weather is expected to move in by next weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

High pressure remains in control to start the week with more sunshine and warm temperatures, though a seabreeze will keep coastal areas a little cooler. We’ll also see some high clouds start to filter the sunshine today as they stream northward from a low pressure system near the Carolinas. Clouds will continue to increase and thicken on Tuesday as that system pushes farther inland across the Carolinas, but we’ll remain dry and warm. On Wednesday, the high moves out, but it should keep enough dry air in place to prevent the rain from moving in as the low pressure system continues moving into the Mid-Atlantic states. That low will start to head eastward, spreading some rain in for Wednesday night and Thursday, but how far north the rain gets is still a big question mark. There’s a decent chance that areas north of the Mass Pike could remain dry the entire time, while there is the potential for some heavy rain as you get close to the South Coast. Exactly where this battlezone sets up will be the key to the forecast, as we’ll go from dry to very wet in just a short distance. How quickly the low pulls away is also a question mark, with the potential for rain to linger into early Friday near the South Coast. High pressure should build back in for the weekend with dry and much cooler conditions, but we could have another low pressure area lurking to the south, so we’ll need to keep an eye on that as well.

We’ll go from little to no rain to a lot over a short distance later this week. Exactly where remains to be seen. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Sunshine starts to get dimmed by some afternoon high clouds. High 77-84, cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 50-57.

Tuesday: Increasing and thickening clouds. High 79-86, cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 54-61.

Wednesday: More clouds than sun, showers possible at night, mainly near the South Coast. High 74-81.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, showers likely, mainly south of the Mass Pike. High 70-77.

Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for more showers, mainly during the morning near the South Coast, breezy, cooler. High 66-73.

Saturday: Partly sunny, breezy. High 62-69.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 62-69.

Weekend Outlook: September 13-16, 2024

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If you’re on vacation, you’ve got a nearly perfect weekend coming up.

Temperatures will remain above normal into early next week. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

For the most part, we’ve got dry weather through the early to middle of next week thanks to high pressure, but it’s a little more complicated than that. We’ll see a little fog developing tonight, but once it burns off, we’ll enjoy a warm day. A weak boundary dropping southward could trigger a stray shower or thunderstorm, favoring areas from northeastern Massachusetts into southern New Hampshire, but we’re not expecting any widespread showers. Fog may redevelop Friday night, then high pressure builds back in for the weekend with slightly cooler conditions as winds shift into the north. By Monday, the high will move offshore, winds will become southwesterly once again, and we’ll start to warm back up.

It’s been quite dry around here for a while now. That won’t change anytime soon. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

Thursday night: Partly cloudy, areas of fog develop. Low 53-60.

Friday: Mostly sunny, slight chance for a late-day shower or thunderstorm, mainly from northeastern Massachusetts into southern New Hampshire. High 79-86, little cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy, patchy fog may redevelop. Low 55-62.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 76-83, coolest along the coast.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy, a little patchy fog possible again. Low 54-61.

Sunday: Plenty of sunshine. High 74-81, coolest along the coast.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 51-58.

Monday: More sunshine. High 78-85, little cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Weekly Outlook: September 9-15, 2024

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Quiet weather is expected for most of the upcoming week.

Much of the region could receive no rain at all this week. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

We start the week off with a weak system moving through. We’ll start the day with some sunshine, but clouds will move in this afternoon, with a few showers late in the day and tonight. After that, high pressure builds in with dry weather for most of the week. Temperatures will turn warm, especially for the second half of the week when the high is offshore. We’re not expecting any records, but much of the region may see highs in the 80s toward the end of the week. A weak front may bring in some cooler weather in during the second half of the weekend, but we’ll have a better idea on that when we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

Mid to upper 80s Friday? Don’t take the AC out of the window just yet. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Morning sunshine, then increasing afternoon clouds, chance for a few late-day showers. High 68-75.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with a few showers around, some clearing late at night. Low 52-59.

Tuesday: Becoming mostly sunny. High 71-78.

Tuesday night: Clear skies, cool. Low 47-54, milder across Cape Cod.

Wednesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 72-79.

Thursday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds. High 76-83, a little cooler across Cape Cod.

Friday: Mostly sunny. High 80-87, a little cooler across Cape Cod.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 78-85, a little cooler across Cape Cod.

Sunday: Partly sunny. High 74-81.

Weekend Outlook: September 5-9, 2024

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Most of the upcoming weekend will feature some rather nice weather for early September.

Temperatures will be a little below normal over the next few days. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

High pressure will move off to the east over the next few days, with dry weather continuing into a good chunk of Saturday. Plenty of sunshine is expected on Thursday with warm temperatures, but we’ll see some clouds start to move in on Friday. The clouds will be more numerous on Saturday as a frontal system moves in from the west and low pressure passes well offshore. Saturday looks to remain dry, with showers likely holding off until evening. Showers continue Saturday night, ending early Sunday as the cold front moves through, with clearing developing in the afternoon. High pressure returns on Monday with sunshine and cooler temperatures.

The rain should be offshore by the time most of you wake up Sunday morning. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Wednesday night: Clear skies. Low 50-57.

Thursday: Plenty of sunshine. High 72-79.

Thursday night: Clear during the evening, some clouds start to move in overnight. Low 52-59.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 71-78.

Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 54-61.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, showers possible late in the day. High 70-77.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Low 53-60.

Sunday: Any lingering showers end early followed by gradual clearing. High 69-76.

Sunday night: Clear skies. Low 48-55.

Monday: Lots of sunshine. High 69-76.

Weekly Outlook: September 2-8, 2024

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We’ve got some rather nice weather coming up for much of the first week of September.

Meteorological Summer will go in the books as one of the Top 10 warmest on record across much of the Northeast. Image provided by the Southeastern Regional Climate Center.

High pressure builds into the Great Lakes today and slowly moves eastward this week. That means we’ve got dry weather through at least Friday, with cool temperatures for the first half of the week, turning milder for the second half, as the high moves offshore and winds shift into the south and southwest. As we get to the end of the week, a slow-moving frontal system will approach the region, bringing an end to our extended stretch of dry weather. Showers are likely on Saturday as a frontal system makes its way into the region. A wave of low pressure may ride along the front, which could bring in some heavier rain, but it’s too early to determine whether that will happen or not. High pressure should build back in for Sunday, but how quickly we clear out will be determined by how quickly the low pressure area pulls away from the region.

Some models show the potential for a very wet Saturday around here. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Some lingering morning clouds, especially near the South Coast, then becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 72-79.

Monday night: Clear and cool. Low 46-53.

Tuesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 67-74.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 48-55.

Wednesday: More sunshine. High 72-79.

Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 72-79.

Friday: Partly sunny. High 72-79.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with showers likely, possibly thunderstorms. High 68-75.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, any lingering showers end early. High 68-75.

Weekend Outlook: August 30 – September 2, 2024

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The unofficial end of summer has arrived – Labor Day Weekend, but we’ve still got summer weather for most of it.

Sunday could feature temperatures well into the 80s in many spots. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We start off with high pressure in control, giving us another nice day on Friday with sunshine and mild temperatures, but clouds will start to move in at night ahead of a warm front. That front may trigger a shower or two early Saturday, otherwise, we’ll stay dry. Warm and humid air moves back in for Saturday, but so do clouds as a cold front begins to approach from the west. It looks like most of the shower activity should hold off until nighttime, so daytime activities on Saturday should be good. Showers taper off Sunday morning as the front moves through, then a secondary front moves through late in the day with another shower or two possible. Once that front crosses the region, cooler and drier air settles in for Labor Day.

A few models show the potential for some heavy downpours Saturday night. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Clear skies. Low 48-55.

Friday: Plenty of sunshine. High 69-76.

Friday night: Clear during the evening, clouds start to move in overnight with a stray shower possible. Low 55-62.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, humid, showers may develop toward evening. High 74-81.

Saturday night: Cloudy with showers and a few thunderstorms. Low 63-70.

Sunday: Showers end in the morning, becoming partly sunny in the afternoon, slight chance for another late-day shower. High 75-82.

Sunday night: Becoming clear. Low 55-62.

Monday: Lots of sunshine. High 71-78.

Weekly Outlook: August 26-September 2, 2024

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The final week of August could feature some active weather, but Labor Day weekend may not be that bad.

Temperatures could get well into the 80s around here on Wednesday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We start the week off with what could be a very active day. A weak system will move across the region today, but with a warm and humid airmass present, and some cooler air aloft thanks to a nearby upper-level low pressure system, we’ve got the ingredients in place for showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe this afternoon. Activity should begin to develop towards midday, and become more widespread and potent as it gets into our region. Some of the storms that develop could produce strong to damaging winds, hail, and heavy downpours. Once we get past sunset, activity should diminish and dissipate.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

High pressure briefly builds in for Tuesday with some sunshine and mild temperatures, but it won’t last too long. Another cold front moves in on Wednesday. How warm we get will depend on the timing of the front, but the potential exists for a very warm and humid day, if the front holds off long enough. The front will be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be strong, again depending on the timing of the front.

Another round of severe storms is possible on Wednesday. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

Once that front moves through, high pressure builds in with cooler and drier weather for Thursday and Friday. Another system will move in during the weekend with a few showers and thunderstorms possible late Saturday or early Sunday. Behind that front, high pressure returns with sunshine and warm temperatures later Sunday and Labor Day. Another cold front may move in late in the day on Labor Day, with a few showers or thunderstorms possible, but don’t go cancelling any plans just yet. We’ll have a better idea on the timing of that front when we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

Showers and thunderstorms could move in late Saturday or wait until Saturday night – the models don’t agree on the timing right now. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: A little fog early, otherwise some morning sun, then clouds move in with showers and thunderstorms develop, some could be strong to severe. High 74-81.

Monday night: Showers and storms end in the evening, becoming partly cloudy, patchy fog develops. Low 57-64.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 77-84.

Tuesday night: Clear during the evening, some clouds move in after midnight, showers possible toward daybreak. Low 61-68.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and humid with showers and thunderstorms likely. High 82-89.

Thursday: Morning clouds, then gradual clearing and less humid. High 68-75.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 69-76.

Saturday: More clouds than sun, chance for some late-day showers. High 73-80.

Sunday: Any showers end early, becoming partly sunny. High 76-83.

Labor Day: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a late-day shower or thunderstorm. High 75-82.

Weekend Outlook: August 23-26, 2024

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A warming trend is on the way for the weekend.

High temperatures at this time of year are normally within a degree or two of 80 for most of the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

The upper-level low that brought us cool temperatures and some showers over the past few days is moving out and high pressure is building in. That will mean sunshine and warmer weather as it slides eastward over the next few days. A seabreeze will keep coastal areas cool, but as a whole, temperatures will be near to above normal through the weekend, with many inland locations topping 80 over the next few days. Humidity levels will also start to creep up, enough that you’ll probably notice it by Sunday. Clouds will start to move back in on Sunday as another weak system approaches the region. That system may produce some showers and thunderstorms late Sunday and Sunday night, but they’ll be more likely on Monday.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely on Monday, but coverage, duration, and intensity are still to be determined. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Clear and cool. Low 53-60.

Friday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds. High 75-82.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 56-63.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 77-84.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 57-64.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, more humid, slight chance for a late-day shower. High 79-86.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy, chance for a few showers. Low 59-66.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sun with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 76-83.

Weekly Outlook: August 19-25, 2024

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“Summer’s going fast, nights growing colder.”

That line from “Time Stand Still” by Rush, often describes late August or September around here, and it will for at least part of this week.

Temperatures will be below normal for the next several days. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

We’re starting the week off with a slow-moving cold front making its way across the region, resulting in aa fairly damp Monday with occasional showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. The front moves offshore early Tuesday, with showers coming to an end, and some clearing behind the front by late in the day as high pressure starts to build in. However, an upper-level low pressure system will then settle into the Northeast for Wednesday and Thursday. As a result, both days will start off with some sunshine, then clouds will develop, with a few showers possible each afternoon. Temperatures will be quite cool, with many places likely staying in the 60s for highs. We could even see a few of the normally cooler locations drop into the 40s at night. As the upper low moves out and high pressure slides offshore, we’ll start to warm up for the end of the week and the weekend, with temperatures getting back to near to above normal levels. Another system could move in by the end of the weekend with some unsettled weather, but the more likely scenario is that it holds off until the start of next week.

There may be some downpours today, but most of the models do not show significant rainfall for our area. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Hurricane Ernesto will continue to generate large swells at the beaches for a few more days, so use caution if you have plans near the coast. As of 11pm Sunday, Ernesto was centered about 435 south-southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia, moving off toward the north-northeast at 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 80 mph. Ernesto is expected to turn more toward the northeast and east-northeast today, passing south of Newfoundland tonight as it becomes extratropical.

Ernesto will continue to generate large waves in the North Atlantic for a few more days. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com

Finally, we’d like to acknowledge that today marks the 33rd anniversary of Hurricane Bob making landfall along the South Coast. We’ve had some close calls in the years since then, but have not had a hurricane make landfall in New England or Long Island since Bob. This is the 2nd longest landfall drought on record for the region. Since 1851, 18 hurricanes have made landfall in this area, or one every 9.6 years, so we are very overdue. Of the 18 hurricanes that made landfall in New England or Long Island since 1851, 15 of them have done so between August 19 and September 27, so this is the time of year that we need to be especially vigilant, though the Atlantic looks to remain quiet for at least the next week or so.

Track of Hurricane Bob, August 16-19, 1991. Image provided by the National Weather Service.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with occasional showers, a rumble or two of thunder, and a few breaks of sunshine. High 74-81.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a few more showers. Low 57-64.

Tuesday: Any lingering showers end early, some clearing develops late in the day. High 67-74.

Tuesday night: Becoming clear. Low 50-57.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few showers. High 65-72.

Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, chance for a shower or two. High 67-74.

Friday: Mostly sunny. High 73-80.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 77-84.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 78-85.

Weekend Outlook: August 16-19, 2024

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Most of the weekend should feature some nice weather, thanks to Hurricane Ernesto.

Monday will feature some rather cool temperatures thanks to some rain. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

An upper-level low over Atlantic Canada will lift back out tonight, with any lingering showers or thunderstorms ending this evening. High pressure then builds in for Friday and Saturday with drier weather, though smoke drifting down from Canadian wildfires will dim the sun at times. Another upper-level low will settle into the Great Lakes, with a surface low pressure and its associated cold front slowly making their way eastward over the next few days. Hurricane Ernesto will be heading north and then northeastward well east of the region this weekend, but it will act to slow down the front, keeping us on the dry side. Some clouds will move in ahead of it, but it looks like the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the front will hold off until late Sunday. As the front moves in, showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread Sunday night and Monday before the front moves offshore later Monday.

A slowing moving cold front will produce heavy rain at the end of the weekend, but the heaviest will stay to our west. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

As for Hurricane Ernesto, it has Bermuda in its crosshairs at the moment. As of 5pm, Ernesto was centered about 495 miles south-southwest of Bermuda, moving toward the north at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 85 mph. The forecast calls for Ernesto to strengthen a little more tonight and Friday while heading northward, passing very close to Bermuda Friday night and early Saturday as it slows down. Beyond that, it will start to turn more toward the northeast, gradually weakening as it loses its tropical characteristics this weekend while passing south of Atlantic Canada. It could bring some heavy rain and gusty winds to parts of Newfoundland, but the bigger impact it will have, except for what it does to Bermuda, will be the large swells it generates. Rough seas are likely this weekend, with large waves smashing into the East Coast from the Carolinas northward to Atlantic Canada, resulting in hazardous conditions at the beaches and a high risk for rip currents, as well as the threat for some coastal flooding near the time of high tide, as we are approaching the astronomical high tides for the month.

Forecast track for Hurricane Ernesto. Image provided by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.

Thursday night: Showers and thunderstorms end this evening, partly to mostly cloudy overnight with areas of fog developing. Low 59-66.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, smoke from Canadian wildfires will dim the sun at times. High 77-84, coolest along the coast.

Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, patchy fog possible again. Low 60-67.

Saturday: Hazy sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 77-84.

Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 62-69.

Sunday: More clouds than sun, some showers and thunderstorms may develop in the afternoon. High 75-82.

Sunday night: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms becoming more likely. Low 62-69.

Monday: Plenty of clouds with more showers and thunderstorms. High 73-80.