Cooler weather is on the way, and it looks like may even a little snow too.
High pressure builds in with cool and dry conditions tonight and Friday. Some clouds may start to filter in for Friday night and Saturday as a large ocean storm starts backing in. With a persistent east to northeast flow around this storm, we could see some drizzle or a few showers on Saturday across parts of eastern Massachusetts, especially Cape Cod. The clouds hang around on Sunday as another low pressure system moves into the eastern Great Lakes before heading southeastward, passing south of New England Sunday night and early Monday. It will spread some precipitation in, and with temperatures near or below freezing at night, it may fall in the form of snow. Most of the precipitation will fall west of our area, but some snow showers or even a period of light snow seems likely. For many of us, it will probably be enough to coat the ground, with a few spots possibly seeing an inch or so, except across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts, where it will be more rain than snow. This is not a big storm, and most of the snow will fall Sunday night and early Monday, so keep that in mind if you’ll be out and about. The system pulls away on Monday, and high pressure builds back in with sunshine returning.
A little light snow is expected Sunday night. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Thursday: Clear skies. Low 25-32.
Friday: Plenty of sunshine. High 38-45.
Friday night: Clear through the evening, clouds start to move in late at night. Low 22-29, a little milder across southeastern Massachusetts.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy, chance for some drizzle or a few showers, mainly across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts. High 33-40.
Saturday night: Mostly cloudy, showers or drizzle taper off in the evening. Low 22-29, a little milder across southeastern Massachusetts.
Sunday: Plenty of clouds, snow showers possible late in the day, mixed with rain across Cape Cod. High 31-38.
Sunday night: Scattered snow showers, except rain or snow showers across Cape Cod. Low 23-30.
Monday: Any lingering rain or snow showers end early, becoming partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 34-41.
Uh oh. It’s that time. You might want to sit down. Yup. We’ve got some bad news for you. That word is in the forecast. You know which one we’re talking about. The one that you really don’t like. At all. It’s 4 letters, begins with “s” and ends with “w” and it rhymes with “no”. Yeah, that word. You knew it was coming eventually, but you still didn’t want to hear (or read) it. Well, it’s too late. You’ve been warned.
We start the week off with high pressure in control for Monday. The result is plenty of sunshine, but rather chilly temperatures, a stark contrast to what we had over the weekend. But, it is November, and the nice weather can’t last forever, because this is New England, not Miami or San Diego or St. Croix. Tuesday looks dry and chilly too, but we’ll have clouds streaming in ahead of a low pressure system moving toward the region.
Normal high temperatures for mid-November are within a degree or two of 50. Iage provided by Weathermodels.com
Tuesday night, some moisture will start streaming in ahead of that storm, and with temperatures likely near or below freezing, we may see some (WARNING: BAD WORD INCOMING) “snow” developing across the area. For areas from Boston southward, it may be just a few flurries or sprinkles Tuesday evening. The more substantial moisture moves in overnight, with most rain in the I-95 corridor and points south and east. North and west of there, especially outside of I-495, some wet snow may develop, but even here, it should change to rain by daybreak. The pavement remains far too warm for any accumulations (except for bridges and overpasses), but grassy surfaces, and car windshields could see some slushy accumulation, perhaps up to an inch as you head into southern New Hampshire. Across the Worcester Hills and up into the Monadnocks, there could even be a little more than that. Everything changes over to rain during the morning, and rain continues into the afternoon before winding down. There could be some gusty winds along the coast as well, but all in all, this is not a big deal. Across parts of Cape Cod and potentially southeastern Massachusetts, temperatures could briefly spike into the 50s or even 60s if the low tracks across the area, but for the rest of, Wednesday will feature temperatures in the 40s or even 30s.
If you’re out and about before daybreak Wednesday, precipitation may not be all rain. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
An upper-level trough of low pressure crosses the Northeast of Thursday with some clouds and possibly a few sprinkles or flurries. High pressure then builds in for the end of the week and the weekend with generally dry and chilly conditions.
Temperatures on Saturday could be 10-15 degrees below normal. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Monday: Plenty of sunshine, breezy at times. High 40-47.
Monday night: Mostly clear skies. Low 21-28.
Tuesday: Some morning sun, then clouds stream in. High 39-46.
Tuesday night: Cloudy with light rain developing at night, starting as light snow or a wintry mix north and west of Boston, gradually changing to all rain by daybreak. Up to an inch of slushy accumulation is possible on grassy surfaces north and west of I-495. Low 27-34, temperatures slowly rise after midnight.
Wednesday: Any lingering wintry mix changing to all rain, ending during the afternoon. High 40-47 north and west of Boston, 48-55 south, potentially warmer across Cape Cod.
Thursday: Partly sunny, breezy, chance for a rain or snow shower. High 40-47.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy. High 39-46.
While the clocks “spring ahead” with Daylight Saving Time beginning this weekend, we’ll still be dealing with winter at times.
High pressure remains in control into Friday with generally dry weather. We’ll be on the chilly side tonight, but temperatures should rebound nicely on Friday, though we’ll see clouds streaming in and thickening up late in the day. This is in advance of a developing low pressure system that will impact us on Saturday. Earlier in the week, it looked like this system would pass west of us, with strong southerly winds bringing in very mild air and rainfall. Well, the latest indications are that the storm will pass right across southern New England, or possibly even south of it. This means that it won’t be as windy or warm as we were thinking earlier, but we’re not looking at a major snowstorm, it’ll still be too mild. We’ll have rain developing by daybreak Saturday, and it could be heavy at times during the day. It may still be quite breezy along the South Coast and across Cape Cod if the system does move across southern New England. Once it passes by during the afternoon it will continue to intensify, with strong northwest winds behind it ushering much colder air back in by late in the day. This will likely result in the rain changing to snow before it ends in the evening. How quickly it changes over and how quickly it moves out will determine whether the snow will accumulate. Right now, the best odds for any accumulation will be from central Massachusetts into southwestern and central New Hampshire. Farther north and west, this will be quite a storm for ski country, which is good news for them.
This storm will be good news for ski country. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
Behind the storm, we’ll clear out for Saturday night and Sunday with high pressure building in. It will be breezy and quite chilly, but this won’t last long. Winds will subside Sunday afternoon, and as the high moves off to the east, temperatures will moderate nicely on Monday.
Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 24-31.
Friday: Some morning sun, then increasing and thickening clouds. High 46-53.
Friday night: Mostly cloudy, rain develops before daybreak. Low 31-38.
Saturday: Rain, heavy at times, possibly changing to snow late in the day, becoming windy. High 45-52, possibly a little warmer across southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Temperatures will quickly drop during the afternoon
Saturday night: Windy with rain or snow showers ending in the evening, clearing late at night. Low 16-23.
Sunday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 30-37.
Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 23-30.
Monday: Mostly sunny, some clouds may pop up in the afternoon. High 46-53.
As we head into the final days of February, yesterday’s record highs are just a memory and a snowstorm now gets all of our attention.
Temperatures at midday were 30-40 degrees colder than they were at this time yesterday. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
Low pressure will head toward the Ohio Valley tonight, then redevelop off the Mid-Atlantic coast, passing south of New England on Friday. We’ll see snow developing before daybreak on Friday, and it will quickly become heavy. Warmer air will start to move in Friday morning, first aloft, then at the surface. This will allow for a change to sleet, and along the South Coast and Cape Cod, eventually rain. The big question mark remains how far north does that sleet progress, since it will have a significant impact on snow accumulations? At this point, we’re thinking it gets to at least the Mass Pike, possibly Route 2. Is there a chance it makes it into southern New Hampshire? Yes, there is. By early afternoon, precipitation will lighten up, and as the storm starts to pull away, everything will go back to snow from northwest to southeast, with the snow ending during the evening.
How much snow do we expect? We really haven’t changed our thinking too much from yesterday:
Cape Cod: 2-5″ South Coast: 3-6″ Southeastern MA/RI: 5-9″ Metro Boston/MetroWest/Merrimack Valley/North Shore: 7-11″ Central and Southern New Hampshire/NH Seacoast: 6-10″
If the sleet doesn’t mix in, accumulations will be toward the higher end of the ranges, especially locations north of the Mass Pike. The longer that sleet occurs, the more likely accumulations will be toward the lower end of the ranges.
The ECMWF is probably closest to our thinking for snowfall. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Skies clear out late Friday night and Saturday as the storm pulls away and high pressure builds in. Another weak system moves through on Sunday with some clouds and possibly a snow shower or two. High pressure builds back in for Monday with some rather chilly weather for the final day of February.
Monday’s temperatures will be about 15 degrees below normal. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Thursday night: Mostly cloudy with snow developing 3-5am. Low 19-26.
Friday: Breezy with snow, heavy at times in the morning, mixing with or changing to sleet south of Route 2, and changing to rain across the South Coast. Precipitation lightens up during the afternoon before changing back to snow showers. High 27-34.
Friday night: Snow showers end in the evening, skies start to clear out after midnight. Low 7-14.
Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 27-34.
Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 13-20.
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a snow shower. High 33-40.
A cold front is crossing the region this afternoon, which will bring an end to our record warmth. A few spots even managed to reach 70 today, but you can kiss the mild weather goodbye, as it won’t be back for a while. Temperatures quickly drop this evening and tonight as high pressure builds in, but clouds will start to stream back in on Thursday as low pressure heads toward the Ohio Valley. The system will then redevelop off the Mid-Atlantic coastline, and pass south of New England on Friday. As you’d expect with a system passing south of us in late February, this will produce snow for most of the area. The exact track of the system will determine how much snow we get (more on that in a bit).
Much of New England and eastern New York are under a Winter Storm Watch. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
We’ll see snow develop before daybreak on Friday, and it may fall heavy at times during the morning and afternoon. At the same time, warmer air will be trying to move in aloft, which would allow the snow to change to sleet and/or freezing rain from south to north during the late morning and early afternoon. At this point, the only places that are likely to get above freezing and change to plain rain will be along the South Coast and across the Cape and the Islands. The question now is, how far north does that change to sleet occur, since it will have a significant impact on the accumulation totals? Most of the models only bring the change as far north as the Mass Pike. However, there is at least one model that brings the changeover all the way northward into southern New Hampshire. This concerns us a little, and we’re going to hedge our bets against this in the snowfall forecast, as you’ll see below.
There is some disagreement among the models as to how far north the changeover line progresses. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
No matter how far north the changeover gets, as the system starts to pull away later on Friday, everything should change back to snow before winding down and ending in the evening. While this will likely impact the evening commute, the impact will be considerably less than what the morning commute experiences.
As for amounts, this is where things get tricky, since any mixing will cut down amounts significantly. There has been a trend in the models over the past 12 hours or so to shift the axis of heaviest snow into northern and central Massachusetts, with a bit less as you head into southern New Hampshire. Having said that, here’s our thinking as of now:
Cape Cod: 2-4″ South Coast: 3-6″ Southeastern MA/RI: 5-9″ Metro Boston/MetroWest/Merrimack Valley/North Shore: 6-12″ Central and Southern New Hampshire/NH Seacoast: 5-10″
Our forecast is not that dissimilar to the National Weather Service forecast. Image provided by WeatherBell.
The ranges are a bit wider than we normally like, but this reflects the uncertainty. The less sleet that mixes in, the more likely you are to be near the higher end of the range. Conversely, the more sleet that mixes in, the more likely you are to be toward the lower end of the range. We’ll update this forecast in our Weekend Outlook tomorrow afternoon.
We’ve got quite the week coming up with everything from some snow and bitterly cold temperatures to heavy rain and possibly more record highs by the end of the week.
Snow showers will come to an end this morning, then skies will start to clear out this afternoon as high pressure starts to build in. Despite the developing sunshine, temperatures will only be in the 20s, which is 10-15 degrees below normal for mid-February. As skies become clear tonight and winds diminish, combined with the fresh snowcover, we’ll have some radiational cooling. Temperatures will likely drop into the single numbers, with some sub-zero readings possible. Tuesday remains chilly, but not quite as cold as today as the high pressure area continues to build in. By Wednesday, that high shifts offshore, and a significant temperature moderation develops. The milder air will be accompanied by clouds though as a storm system begins to move toward the region.
Tuesday morning looks quite chilly across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.
By Thursday, that system draws nearer, with gusty southwest winds sending temperatures well into the 50s and possibly 60s, with more record highs possible. While temperatures will be mild during the day, it looks like the warmest temperatures will be at night. We could be near or above 60 degrees at midnight Thursday night across the region. We’ll also have some heavy rain as the system gets closer, which combined with the mild weather, will help melt much of the snow that remains on the ground. A widespread soaking rainfall is likely, with rainfall totals of more than an inch possible. We wouldn’t even be surprised if there’s a rumble of thunder. This storm will likely produce some severe weather across the South, and while that’s not likely here, a few thunderstorms are possible. Friday likely starts off warm and wet with temperatures still in the 50s at daybreak, but as a strong cold front comes through during the morning, the rain will end, and temperatures will drop during the day. High pressure builds back in for the weekend with dry and seasonably cool conditions for Saturday, but we may start to turn milder again on Sunday.
Some record highs are possible on Thursday across the Northeast. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Monday: Snow showers ending in the morning, skies start to clear out by late in the day, breezy. High 18-25.
Monday night: Becoming mostly clear. Low -2 to +5.
Tuesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 23-30.
Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 6-13.
Wednesday: Sunny in the morning, clouds start to stream in during the afternoon, becoming breezy and milder. High 38-45.
Thursday: Plenty of clouds with some sunny breaks, especially in the morning, showers developing in the afternoon, becoming windy. Wind-swept rain likely at night, possibly some thunder as well. High 56-63. The warmest temperatures are likely at night.
Friday: Windy with rain ending in the morning, clearing during the afternoon. High 47-54 at daybreak, temperatures drop during the day.
Hope you enjoyed the record warmth today, because Mother Nature is going to quickly remind you that it is still February.
Temperatures got well into the 50s and lower 60s across the region Saturday afternoon. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Unseasonably mild temperatures continued across the region on Saturday, with a few records set, but a cold front moved through around midday, and a stronger one will move through this evening, bringing an abrupt end to the mild weather. Temperatures will quickly drop tonight as the front pushes offshore, and on Sunday, most places will likely be in the 30s or even upper 20s during the daytime. That’s not the big story though.
A wave of low pressure will ride along the front on Sunday, passing south and east of the region. It will be close enough to produce some light snow and snow showers across parts of eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, possibly even into southern New Hampshire, during Sunday morning and early afternoon. Most of the snow will remain light, with accumulations of an inch or two possible, mainly from Boston southward. The story doesn’t end there. As the low passes by, winds will shift into the northeast, which will result in some ocean-effect snow across parts of Cape Cod and coastal Plymouth County, and possibly Cape Ann as well. The areas that receive snow will be highly dependent on the wind direction. Northeast winds will spread the snow inland across southeastern Massachusetts, but as winds shift into the north Sunday night, the bands of ocean-effect snow will retreat closer to the coast of Plymouth County and across Cape Cod. By Monday morning, winds will shift into the northwest, bringing an end to the snow for most of us.
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands as well as Plymouth County. Image provided by the National Weather Service office in Norton, MA.
How much snow may fall? North and West of I-495, just a dusting to perhaps a half an inch. From 495 to I-95, some spots could see an inch, possibly 2 inches. It’s areas south of Boston (and Cape Ann), that may need shovels (and possibly plows). Across interior portions of southeastern Massachusetts as well as Cape Ann, we could see 2-4 inches of snow. The “jackpot” is likely to be across coastal Plymouth County as well as parts of Cape Cod, where as much as 4-7 inches could accumulate.
The heavy snow is likely from coastal Plymouth County into Cape Cod Sunday into early Monday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
High pressure builds in behind this system on Monday with much colder weather. Despite sunshine developing in the afternoon, temperatures will only rise into the lower to middle 20s for highs, with single numbers and lower teens likely Monday night as skies clear out and winds die down. Tuesday also looks chilly, though likely a few degrees milder, but a big warmup is likely for the middle to latter half of the week. In fact, we could make a run at 60 again on Thursday, before another system brings in some rain.
Tuesday morning looks rather chilly across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.
There are some indications that this arctic blast for Monday and Tuesday could be the last really cold blast of the winter. Oh, it’ll still be cold, it’s only mid-February after all, but days with highs in the 20s and lows in the single numbers or below zero may be done for the year, though this is far from a guarantee. We’ve been known to have arctic blasts into March and even early April, though with the increasing sun angle, they tend to lose their staying power. This does not mean that winter is over, not by a longshot. We still can get snow around here well into April and even May if things set up properly. The longer range models are indicating that a milder pattern should start to take hold soon, and last into March. However, these same models also still show the threat for snow well into March, so don’t go putting away the winter gear just yet.
It’s mild today, but a messy Friday is on the way.
A strong cold is making its way toward the region this afternoon. We’ll have some rain ahead of it tonight, and the rain may be quite heavy. The combination of rain and mild temperatures will help to melt a lot of the snow that remains from last weekend’s blizzard. The front moves through this evening, and colder air will slowly make its way into the region early on Friday, first at the surface, then aloft. As temperatures drop, the rain will change to freezing rain and then sleet from north to south. With the roads already wet from the rain and temperatures dropping, a flash freeze is likely, and it will unfortunately be timed for the morning commute. If you’re going to be out in the morning, use plenty of caution, as untreated surfaces will become very icy quickly.
Much of the region will receive 1.5-2.0 inches of rain tonight and Friday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Temperatures will continue to drop during the day, with the freezing rain and sleet likely ending as some wet snow, mainly north of the Mass Pike. Everything winds down in the evening, then skies gradually clear out at night as high pressure builds in. This sets up a sunny but cold Saturday across the region. The high slides off to the east for Sunday and Monday, keeping us dry, but allowing temperatures to begin to moderate once again.
Saturday night looks quite chilly across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Thursday night: Rain, possibly heavy at times, changing to freezing rain and sleet late at night, mainly across southern New Hampshire and northern Massachusetts. Low 26-33 north of the Mass Pike, 34-44 south of the Pike.
Friday: Rain and freezing rain changing to sleet, and eventually some wet snow north of the Mass Pike. Temperatures dropping during the day.
Friday night: Wintry mix ending, some clearing late at night. Low 12-19.
Saturday: Becoming mostly sunny, breezy, and cold. High 19-26.
Saturday night: Clear and cold. Low -7 to 0 north and west of Boston, 1-8 south of Boston.
Sunday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 24-31.
Saturday is not going to be a pretty day around here, but most of you already knew that. There are some changes to our forecast though. Once again, we’ll start with the basics (which really haven’t changed), then work our way into the details (which have changed a bit).
Blizzard Warnings are in effect from coastal Maine to the Delmarva Peninsula. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
Low pressure will develop off the Southeast coast this afternoon and will head up the Eastern Seaboard tonight and Saturday, rapidly intensifying as it does so. The system will likely pass just south and east of Nantucket Saturday night, and pull away from the region on Sunday. A few snow showers are possible today as a cold front moves through, completely unrelated to the storm. What that front will do is bring colder air back in, so that we’ll be dealing with all snow across nearly all of the region, except possibly Nantucket and Outer Cape Cod.
OK, let’s get to the details. We’ll start with temperatures. North and west of Boston, temperatures will likely be in the teens for much of the storm, resulting in a fluffy snow. This will make cleanup easier, but also make it easier for accumulations to pile up quicker. South of Boston, temperatures will be in the 20s to start, but will drop during the day, so we’re also looking at a fluffier snow here as well. Across Cape Cod, temperatures will be closer to freezing, so it’ll be a wetter snow, with the possibility of rain mixing in, depending on how close the storm actually tracks. The general rule is that 1 inch of liquid equals about 10 inches of snow, which works fine with temperatures close to freezing. The colder you get, the higher the ratio gets. When temperatures drop into the teens, the ratio can get to 20:1, which means 1 inch of liquid results in 20 inches of snow. We’re not sure it’ll get that high, as there are other factors involved beyond the temperature at the ground, but it is certainly possible. The other thing to keep in mind is that the temperatures, combined with strong winds (see next paragraph), will result in very cold wind chills, so keep this in mind if you’re heading outside to do some shoveling during the storm.
Wind chills will be near or below zero across the region by Saturday evening. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Next, we’ll get to the winds and coastal flooding. As the storm gets cranked up south of the region, winds will pick up on Saturday. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph are likely inland, with sustained winds of 20-40 mph along the coast. Wind gusts of 40-50 mph are likely inland, but along the coast, wind gusts of 50-70 mph seem likely, with higher gusts possible, especially across Cape Cod. Some trees and power lines could come down, so be prepared for power outages, but with a fluffier snow, there might be less widespread than you’d normally expect. The winds, combined with astronomical high tides, will result in some coastal flooding, especially at northeast and north-facing coastal areas during both the morning and evening high tides on Saturday.
Wind gusts could exceed 50 mph across much of the coastal plain. Image provided by WeatherBell.
With strong winds and heavy snow (more on that in a moment), blizzard conditions are expected on Saturday. If you don’t have to go out, then don’t. Whiteout conditions will make travel nearly impossible during the afternoon and evening. The National Weather Service has issued a Blizzard Warning for most of eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, as well as the New Hampshire Seacoast and coastal Maine.
Sustained winds or frequent gusts ≥ 35 mph AND considerable falling and/or blowing snow frequently reducing visibility < ¼ for ≥ 3 hours.
Blizzard conditions need to be the predominant condition over a 3 hour period.
Official definition of a Blizzard Warning from the National Weather Service
Now to the part that you’ve all been waiting for – how much snow is going to fall? If you read our Weekend Outlook yesterday, or are a regular reader of the blog, then you know that we are normally very conservative in our snowfall forecasts – no hype here. Well, many of the forecast models continue to forecast insane snowfall totals, and most of the guys on TV are buying in. With that in mind, we are issuing an Extreme Hype Warning.
When an Extreme Hype Warning has been issued, it means you’ll see blanket coverage from the network stations around here, hourly updates even when they go to regular programming, and of course, obligatory live shots from (take your pick):
The side of an Interstate
Logan Airport
A local DPW salt pile
A beach showing the rough surf and coastal flooding
A Dunkin Donuts where they are talking to a plow operator
All of the above
You’ll also get network reports about how the snow is creating chaos in New York City, how it put Washington at a standstill (due to the 1-3 inches they’ll get), and possibly how it dumped heavy snow (a.k.a. 1 inch) on parts of the Southeast.
As for our forecast? We’re going to raise forecast amounts from what we had yesterday, but not to the levels that most of the media is forecasting. Light snow may develop by midnight along the South Coast, spreading northward over the ensuing few hours, reaching southern and central New Hampshire and southern Maine by 3-5am. Between about 10am and 7pm, it’s going to snow rather heavily. Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour will be likely in many areas. However, there will be some embedded bands of intense snowfall, with snowfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour. If you’re under one of these bands for any length of time, your totals may end up higher than our forecast, while areas outside the band a few miles away have significantly less snowfall.
OK, we’ve rambled on enough, let’s go to the actual forecast totals:
Central NH (Lebanon/Laconia): 4-8″ Southern NH/Central MA (Concord/Manchester/Nashua/Fitchburg): 10-15″ Merrimack Valley/495 Belt/NH Seacoast (Portsmouth/Haverhill/Lowell/Framingham): 15-20″ I-95 corridor (Beverly/Boston/Providence): 18-24″ Southeastern MA/Cape Cod (Brockton/Weymouth/Plymouth/Taunton/Fall River): 20-26″ with some totals in excess of 30″ possible.
The National Blend of Models continues to be closest to our thinking for snowfall totals. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Once the storm pulls away, dry and colder conditions settle in for Sunday and Monday, before temperatures start to moderate. There are some indications for a big warmup late-week and a storm that will bring in rain, but it’s still several days away, so we wouldn’t put too much stock into that just yet,
We’ve certainly got an eventful weekend coming up across the region.
Another chilly night is expected as high pressure slides offshore, but clouds will start to move in, and temperatures may actually start to rise after midnight as winds shift into the south and southwest. Friday will feature plenty of clouds and somewhat milder temperatures, but an approaching cold front may produce a few snow showers during the afternoon. This brings us to the main event.
Winter Storm Watches are in effect for much of the coastal plain in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
We’ll give you the general idea first, then get into specifics in the next paragraph or four. Low pressure will move up the East Coast Friday night and Saturday. There are still some questions as to exact track and strength, but we are narrowing the possibilities. At this point, it looks like the storm will track just south and east of Nantucket, which means that this will be all snow for everyone, except possibly Nantucket and the Outer Cape. The storm should pull away before daybreak Sunday, with clearing Sunday afternoon, then high pressure builds in with sunshine and colder weather on Monday.
There is still disagreement among the models as to how close the low gets to Nantucket. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Now, let’s get to the details of the storm. As winds shift into the northeast Friday evening, the onshore flow may produce some flurries or snow showers across the region, but these won’t do much more than whiten the ground. The steady snow will spread across the region between 2 and 5am. Between about 10am and 10pm, we’ll have snow falling moderate to heavy at times, especially near the coast and south of Boston. There will be some embedded bands of intense snowfall, falling at the rate of 1-3 inches an hour, but picking out where those will develop is a fool’s errand at this point. The snow should taper off in the evening, and end from west to east between 3 and 6am Sunday. We’ll detail the amounts in a bit, as snow is not the only concern with this system.
As the storm rapidly intensifies, winds will ramp up, with sustained winds of 15-25 mph inland, and 20-40 mph along the coast and south of Boston. Wind gusts in excess of 50-60 mph are possible, especially across Cape Cod and the Islands. This will result in significant blowing and drifting snow, with blizzard conditions possible. It also will increase the threat for power outages, with trees and power lines coming down. The winds, combined with astronomical high tides (Tuesday is the New Moon), will result in coastal flooding, possibly moderate to major coastal flooding, especially at east and northeast-facing coastlines.
Wind gusts of 40-50 mph are likely across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Another factor will be temperatures. We mentioned that this will be all snow for nearly all of the region, but it’s looking like it’ll be a fluffy snow for many of us. This is both good and bad. It’s good, because it makes it a lot easier to clean up, but bad, because it allows the snow to pile up even faster. The reason it will be a fluffy snow is because it’s going to be quite chilly. Areas north and west of Boston may stay in the teens all day Saturday, with 20s from Boston southward. Add in the strong winds, and you’re looking at wind chills in the single numbers and below zero. Keep that in mind if you’re going to try and clean up the driveway a few times during the storm.
OK, we’ve gone over the timing, the winds, the coastal flooding, the temperatures, did we miss anything? Oh yeah, how much to expect. You’ve probably seen or heard that there are many models forecasting some outrageous amounts of snow. Well, as is usually the case, you won’t find that here. Oh, we’re still expecting a rather potent storm, but if you really expect widespread 2-3 feet, then we’re going to disappoint you. Since we’re still 36 hours from the start of the storm, this could still change, and we’ll likely issue another blog post tomorrow, but here’s our current thinking:
Central NH (Lebanon/Concord): 2-6″ Southern NH/Central MA (Manchester/Nashua/Fitchburg): 5-10″ Merrimack Valley/495 Belt/NH Seacoast (Portsmouth/Haverhill/Lowell/Framingham): 8-12″ I-95 corridor (Beverly/Boston/Providence): 10-15″ Southeastern MA/Cape Cod (Brockton/Plymouth/Taunton/Fall River): 12-18″ with some totals in excess of 20″ possible.
The National Blend of Models is fairly close to our thoughts in terms of snowfall. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Thursday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 15-22, but temperatures may start to rise after midnight.
Friday: Cloudy with a chance of snow showers. High 30-37.
Friday night: Snow showers becoming a steady light snow, becoming breezy. Low 18-25 north and west of Boston, 26-33 south.
Saturday: Windy with snow, heavy at times. Temperatures will hold steady or drop during the day.
Storm HQ 