The final days of January and first few of February are going to feature some typical winter weather with chilly temperatures and a few chances at some light snow.

We start the week out with a sunny, breezy, and chilly day with temperatures close to where they should be in late January. Things start to change on Tuesday as a cold front moves through in the morning. This front may be accompanied by some snow showers or squalls, which could drop a quick half an inch to an inch in spots, possibly as early as the morning commute, so keep this in mind for your drive to work or school.

An Alberta Clipper will quickly follow on Wednesday. There is still some uncertainty with the exact track this system will take, which has an impact on the forecast. Some models bring the system across Northern New England, which would mean some rain or snow showers for most of us. Some bring it right across the region, with some light snow mainly north of the Mass Pike, and rain or snow showers to the south, and some bring it south of New England, with light snow for everyone. For now, we’re going to play the middle ground, with some light snow or snow showers for much of the region, possibly mixed with rain across parts of Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts. An inch or two of snow could accumulate, in most spots from this storm. Once this system moves by, we get another arctic blast for Thursday with very cold temperatures and gusty winds, but it only lasts for one day as temperatures quickly moderate on Friday.

The weekend is a bit of a question mark at this point. Most of the models all have a system moving in at some point later Friday into Saturday, though at least one model now keeps the storm south of New England. Some have milder air moving in ahead of it, with some rain, changing to snow as the system moves by, some have just occasional rain or snow showers through the weekend, and some have nothing at all. It’s far too early to tell which solution (if any of these) will be right, so we’ll just keep monitoring it, and will hopefully have a bit more clarity when we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday. Right now, it looks like high pressure will build in for Sunday with drier weather.

Sunday is also Groundhog Day. According to tradition, if the groundhog emerges from its burrow and sees its shadow, and will go back inside and winter will last for 6 more weeks. If it doesn’t see its shadow, spring will arrive early. The most famous celebration of this day takes place in Punxsutawney, PA, where Punxsutawney Phil is brought out every year. He has only seen his shadow 20 times in the 138 years this has been recorded.

Monday: Plenty of sunshine with a few afternoon clouds, breezy. High 32-39.

Monday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy, breezy. Low 25-32.

Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for some snow showers or squalls during the morning, windy, especially through early afternoon. High 31-38 in the morning, temperatures start dropping in the afternoon.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy, light snow or snow showers develop before daybreak. Low 12-19, though temperatures may hold steady or rise a little after midnight.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with some light snow or snow showers likely, possibly mixed with rain across parts of Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts. High 32-39.

Wednesday night: Clearing, breezy. Low 10-17.

Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy, colder. High 23-30.

Thursday night: Partly cloudy. Low 12-19, but temperatures may start rising after midnight.

Friday: Intervals of clouds and sun, breezy, rain or snow possible late in the day. High 33-40.

Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow. High 30-37.

Sunday: Partly sunny. High 27-34.

Some chilly weather, even by January standards, is expected for much of the week, but things could get complicated next weekend.

A low pressure system will pass south of New England today. This is the same storm that brough blizzard conditions to Kansas City over the weekend, and a decent-sized snowstorm to Washington, DC today. Around here, it’ll just bring in clouds, and maybe a few flurries to the Cape and Islands. That storm will combine with another one over Newfoundland and remain in place for much of the week, resulting in generally dry but breezy and chilly conditions through Friday. Some weak upper-level disturbances may move through at times, generating a few snow showers here and there, but they’ll be on the light side.

By the end of the week, a storm system will begin taking shape that could produce wintry weather from Texas into the Tennessee Valley at the end of the week. What it does next weekend is still a big question mark, and dependent on a few upper-level features that are still out over the Pacific Ocean, which makes things highly uncertain at this point. You may have seem some of the usual characters on social media (a.k.a. Facebook Forecasters) posting maps showing a massive blizzard impacting New England. Yes, some of the models have shown this, and yes it’s possible, but the odds of it happening at this point seem fairly low to us. There are two other scenarios shown on the models that seem more likely, at least for now. One scenario is that the system moves off the Carolina or Mid-Atlantic coastline and stays well to the south, with no impacts up here at all, similar to today’s system. A second scenario is that the storm does develop, and moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast, but stays just far enough offshore that we are only on the fringe of the storm, with some light snow for part of the region. For now, we’re going to lean towards these latter scenarios, while keeping a close eye on the development of the system, just in case, the initial scenario becomes more likely (though we don’t expect at that to be the coast). We’ll obviously have much more clarity when we publish our Weekend Outlook Thursday afternoon.

Monday: More clouds than sun, slight chance for a flurry across Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket, skies may start to clear out late in the day. High 23-30.

Monday night: Clouds hang around across the Outer Cape, clearing elsewhere, becoming breezy. Low 11-18.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, a stray snow shower is possible, breezy. High 22-29.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy, breezy. Low 12-19.

Wednesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, maybe a snow shower, windy. High 21-28.

Thursday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a flurry, breezy. High 24-31.

Friday: Mostly sunny, not as chilly. High 31-38.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sun, slight chance for some light snow at night, favoring areas south of Boston. High 30-37.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun with a slight chance for some light snow, mainly south of Boston. High 30-37.

As we head into the final week before Christmas, Hanukkah, Kwanzaa, or whatever else you celebrate, we’ve got some active weather ahead. We also will officially enter astronomical winter this week, with the Winter Solstice at 4:20am on Saturday (Meteorological Winter started on December 1).

A weak low pressure system will pass south of the region today, but with plenty of dry air in place, most of the precipitation associated with that system will dry up before it gets here, with only a few flurries or freezing drizzle possible this morning. However, another system quickly follows that one. As it heads across southern Canada, it will drag a warm front across the region this evening, with some rain expected ahead of the front tonight into Tuesday morning. Temperatures will rise behind the warm front tonight, setting up a mild day on Tuesday, though a cold front will move through in the afternoon. We’ll clear out behind that front later Tuesday, but clouds quickly return on Wednesday as yet another system heads our way. This one will bring in some more rain Wednesday night into early Thursday, however, it may be cold enough for some snow across parts of southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley at the start. Everything winds down Thursday morning as the system pulls away, with clearing Thursday afternoon.

Another weak system moves through on Friday with a few snow showers possible. For the weekend, we’re watching high pressure build in across southern Canada, and low pressure develop off the Mid-Atlantic states. Right now, it looks like the high will be the dominant force around here, with dry and very chilly weather, but that’s far from a lock at this point, so we’ll keep a close watch on it, in case things start to change.

Monday: Morning clouds with a flurry or some freezing drizzle possible, some afternoon sunny breaks develop. High 37-44.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with some light rain developing, becoming breezy after midnight. Low 34-41 during the evening, temperatures rise overnight.

Tuesday: Rain ends early, then a mix of sun and clouds with diminishing winds for the afternoon. High 50-57.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 30-37.

Wednesday: Becoming mostly cloudy, rain develops at night, possibly starting as snow north and west of I-495. High 42-49.

Thursday: Rain or snow ends early, skies clear out in the afternoon, breezy. High 39-46.

Friday: More clouds than sun with a few snow showers possible. High 29-36, a little warmer across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for some snow showers, mainly across Cape Cod. High 27-34, a little warmer across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny, quite chilly. High 17-24, a little milder across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod.