Despite the wet start to the weekend, drier weather is expected for much of the time.
A healthy drink of water tonight will help put a dent on the drought. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Low pressure moving up the Appalachians will bring some rain into the region this evening, possibly heavy at times for a while. As the system lifts northward, the rain will taper off and end from south to north before daybreak as temperatures rise thanks to increasing southwest winds. Temperatures may top 60 Friday morning in many areas before the storm drags a cold front across the region. Gusty west winds will usher cooler air in, with temperatures dropping through the afternoon. High pressure builds in for the weekend, but with an upper-level low moving through we’ll still have some clouds at times, and winds will remain gusty on Saturday. By Monday, we’ll see clouds start to move back in ahead of a fast-moving storm system moving out of the Great Lakes, with some showers possible at night.
Wind gusts of 30-40 mph or higher are likely across the region Friday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Thursday night: Rain likely, possibly heavy for a while through the evening, ending before daybreak, breezy. Low 48-55.
Friday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, windy. High 54-61 in the morning, temperatures drop in the afternoon.
Friday night: Partly cloudy, breezy. Low 39-46.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy. High 50-57.
Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 31-38, a little milder across Cape Cod.
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 48-55.
Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 30-37, a little milder across Cape Cod.
Some unsettled weather is on the way for the 2nd half of the week for our region. Meanwhile, Jamaica is going to get walloped by Hurricane Melissa.
Wednesday could be a chilly, damp day for a good portion of the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
We start the week off with dry and cool conditions thanks to a large area of high pressure of eastern Canada. However, with an upper-level low still overhead we’ll see clouds popping up today with just a slight chance for a shower, mainly across Cape Cod where northerly winds could generate a few ocean-effect showers. As we head into Tuesday, low pressure will move off the Carolina coast and head out to sea well south of New England. However, the gradient between the developing low and the high to our north will result in northeast winds, bringing some moisture in from the Atlantic. This will result in some clouds, and possibly a few showers or some drizzle across eastern Massachusetts from late Tuesday into Wednesday.
The potential exists for more heavy rain at the end of the week. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
By late Wednesday, we’ll start to watch a low pressure area developing in the Tennessee Valley. It should head northeastward, but there is still quite a bit of uncertainty with this system. We’ll likely see some rain move in from this system on Thursday, ending Friday morning, which would result in dry weather for trick-or-treating Friday evening. But that’s not the entire story. It’ll likely be rather breezy with this storm, taking down a lot of the remaining leaves on the trees. As a result, if we get enough rain, it’ll result in some slick roads with the wet leaves covering them, as well as areas of poor drainage flooding. But wait, there’s more! We’ll also be keeping an eye on what remains of Hurricane Melissa (more on that in a moment). The system should be heading well out to sea, but it could be just close enough to the East Coast for our developing system to tap into it, and infuse some tropical moisture, which would result in much heavier rain from this system. This scenario is not looking that likely at this time, but it is a possibility, so we felt the need to mention it. An upper-level low pressure area will then move in for the weekend with breezy and cooler conditions.
Forecast track for Hurricane Melissa. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
In the Caribbean, Hurricane Melissa is assaulting Jamaica and nearby portions of Cuba and Haiti, and this will continue for another day or two. As of 2am, Melissa was centered about 130 miles south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, drifting toward the west at 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 150 mph, making Melissa a Category 4 storm. Unfortunately, the forecast for Jamaica is rather grim. Melissa will drift westward for another day or so, with some additional strengthening expected. That means rain and strong winds will continue to increase across Jamaica. By Monday night, the storm will start to turn more toward the north as a trough of low pressure off the Southeast begins to pick the storm up. That means it will likely cut right across the island, possibly as a Category 5 storm. In addition to sustained winds possibly in excess of 150 mph, a storm surge of up to 15-20 feet east of the center will likely result in widespread damage, including the capital city of Kingston. On top of that, rainfall totals of 20-40 inches (or higher) will result in catastrophic flooding and mudslides. Torrential rain and strong winds are also likely across portions of Haiti and eastern Cuba, especially as Melissa turns northward towards these areas. It will then cross the Turks and Caicos and parts of the Bahamas as it continues to slowly weaken. By mid-week, it could be a threat to Bermuda as well, possibly still at hurricane strength.
Rainfall totals of 20 to perhaps 40 or more inches are possible. Image provided by the Weather Prediction Center.
Monday: Morning sun with some afternoon clouds, slight chance for a shower or two, especially across Cape Cod. High 48-55.
Monday night: Clear skies north and west of Boston, partly to mostly cloudy south with a few showers or drizzle possible. Low 34-41, a little milder across Cape Cod.
Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sun, breezy, chance for a few showers or some drizzle near the coast. High 49-56.
Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with some showers or drizzle around. Low 36-43, a little milder across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod.
Wednesday: More clouds than sun, breezy, some additional showers or drizzle near the coast. High 49-56.
Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers. Low 38-45, a little milder across Cape Cod.
Thursday: Plenty of clouds, breezy, rain developing. High 54-61.
Thursday night: Periods of rain, breezy. Low 44-51.
Friday: Cloudy and breezy with rain ending. High 54-61.
Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 51-58.
Much of the upcoming weekend will feature dry and cool conditions. That will not be the case in parts of the Caribbean as Tropical Storm Melissa meanders around.
High temperatures may only be in the lower 50s by Monday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
An upper-level low pressure system will settle into the Northeast for the next few days while high pressure starts to build in at the surface. The result will be cooler temperatures with some clouds each afternoon, but for the most part we’ll stay on the dry side. The exception will be Friday, with a weak disturbance will move through, possibly generating a couple of pop-up showers during the afternoon hours. As we get deeper into the weekend, the upper-level low will lift out and high pressure becomes more dominant, but we’ll stay on the cool side. As we get towards Monday, we may see more clouds starting to stream in as low pressure heads toward the Mid-Atlantic states. That system could have some impacts here later next week, but we’ll get into more detail about that in our Weely Outlook early Monday morning.
Forecast track for Tropical Storm Melissa. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Meanwhile, in the Caribbean, Tropical Storm Melissa remains weak this afternoon, but that may change this weekend. As of 2pm, Melissa was centered about 200 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, drifting toward the north-northwest at 2pm. Maximum sustained winds were near 45 mph. Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches are in effect for parts of Haiti and all of Jamaica. Wind shear has been keeping Melissa weak since yesterday, but there are signs that the shear will relax over the next 24 hours, which would allow the storm to strengthen. With a large high pressure area building in to the north, the storm will drift westward for the next few days, right on top of some of the warmest water in the Caribbean. This could result in Melissa rapidly strengthening into a powerful hurricane near or just south of Jamaica. Strong winds and torrential rainfall could lash the island, as well as nearby portions of Haiti and eastern Cuba for days. Some models show the potential for 2-4 FEET of rain by early next week, which would result in widespread significant flooding, and mudslides.
Parts of Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba could see as much as 20-40 inches of rain between now and the middle of next week. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 38-45.
Friday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, chance for a shower or two. High 53-60.
Friday night: Clear skies. Low 36-43, a little milder across Cape Cod.
Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 50-57.
Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Low 34-41, a little milder across Cape Cod.
Sunday: Partly sunny. High 48-55.
Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 32-39, a little milder across Cape Cod.
Some nice weather is on the way for most of the weekend, but more rain is in our future.
Low pressure south of Nova Scotia continues to send clouds into eastern New England. loop provided by College of DuPage.
Our stubborn ocean storm will finally lose its influence on the region tonight with winds diminishing as high pressure builds in from the west. There might still be a few showers across parts of Cape Cod, but otherwise it will remain dry with skies becoming clear across the area. As the high slowly crosses the region we’ll have sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures on Friday. By Saturday, we’ll see temperatures start to moderate, but also some clouds starting to move in ahead of a low pressure area moving into the Great Lakes. Sunday looks like the pick of the weekend with some sunshine in the morning, but clouds start to increase and thicken up during the afternoon. Increasing southwest winds will send temperatures well into the 60s with some spots possibly topping 70. As the front continues to advance eastward, we’ll see some showers developing late Sunday night, likely continuing for a good chunk of Monday until the front pushes offshore.
Monday’s rainfall will be helpful, but we need a lot more to break the drought. Image provided by weathermodels.com
Thursday night: Plenty of clouds with a few showers across Cape Cod, becoming clear elsewhere, breezy along the coast. Low 37-44, milder across Cape Cod.
Friday: Clearing across Cape Cod, plenty of sunshine elsewhere. High 55-62.
Friday night: Clear skies. Low 36-43, milder across Cape Cod.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with some afternoon high clouds. High 57-64.
Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Low 41-48.
Sunday: Some morning sun, then increasing and thickening clouds, breezy and milder. High 62-69.
Sunday night: Cloudy with showers developing. Low 50-57.
Monday: Periods of rain and showers, breezy. High 58-65.
We’ve had warm and dry weather for much of the past few months, but that is going to change this weekend.
Freeze Warnings (dark blue) and Frost Advisories (light blue) are in effect for much of the Northeast. Image provided by the National Weather Service.
A large area of high pressure will settle across the region tonight, bringing us clear skies and light winds – the ideal setup for radiational cooling. As a result, we’re looking at the coolest night so far this fall, with widespread frost away from the coast and urban areas, with a freeze expected in the normally colder locations. Friday will feature plenty of sunshine, but we’ll remain on the cool side. As the high starts to slide off to the south and east, winds will shift into the southwest Friday night, so we won’t be as chilly as tonight. Saturday should be a milder day, but we’ll see clouds starting to move in as moisture streams northward from a low pressure area developing off the Carolina coast. That system will drift northward Sunday and Monday, but won’t get this far north, though it will still have a significant impact on the region.
A developing low pressure will impact much of the East Coast this weekend. Loop provided by WeatherBell.
We’ll see rain spreading northward from the system, likely moving in from south to north Sunday afternoon and evening. How far north the rain gets is still a bit of a question mark, but it looks like most of the region should receive some much-needed rainfall. How much rainfall is also a question, but at this point it looks like the heaviest rain will be near the South Coast and also east-facing coastal areas, which some spots could see 1-2 inches of rain, possibly more, before everything starts to wind down on Tuesday.
Some models show the potential for very heavy rainfall with this system. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Rain isn’t the only impact from this system though. The pressure gradient between the developing low to the south and high pressure to the north will result in gusty east to northeast winds, especially near the coast, where some gusts in excess of 40 mph are possible, especially later Sunday into Monday. In addition, with tides still near the astronomical high for the month, persistent onshore gusty winds will result in some areas of coastal flooding, especially along east and northeast facing locations. Oh, and the combination of cloudcover, rainfall, and winds, will keep temperatures on the cool side again, especially on Monday.
Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are possible, especially near the coast, Sunday night and Monday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Thursday night: Clear and chilly. Low 29-36, milder along the coast and in urban areas.
Friday: Plenty of sunshine. High 56-63.
Friday night: Clear during the evening, some clouds start to filter in from south to north after midnight. Low 38-45, a little milder along the coast and in urban areas.
Saturday: Partly sunny, clouds start to thicken up late in the day. High 60-67.
Saturday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 44-51.
Sunday: Cloudy and becoming windy with rain developing from south to north. High 57-64.
Sunday night: Cloudy and windy with rain likely, possibly heavy at times. Low 48-55.
Monday: Cloudy and windy with more rain, possibly heavy at times. High 54-61, a little milder near the South Coast and Cape Cod.
We’ve got some absolutely glorious weather coming up for the weekend.
It’s been very dry across the region over the past 3 months, and that won’t change this weekend. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.
A large area of high pressure will sink southward over the next few days. With it right overhead tonight, we’ll have clear skies and light winds – the recipe for radiational cooling. It will be quite chilly tonight, with lows mainly in the 40s with upper 30s in the cold spots. A few patches of frost are possible in spots as well. After that, as the high continues to move southward we’ll see winds shift into the west and southwest, bringing warmer air in for the entire weekend with plenty of sunshine each day. Coastal areas may still a little cooler with afternoon seabreezes, but inland temperatures could top 80 during Saturday, Sunday and Monday.
Temperatures will be well above normal this weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy and chilly. Low 39-46.
Quieter weather is on the way for the weekend around here, but the Atlantic is anything but quiet right now.
There are two active storms in the Atlantic, and a third one could form soon. Loop provided by NOAA.
A cold front will push offshore tonight, with the much-needed rain finally coming to an end. However, that front is going to stall out south of New England, so skies will only slowly start to clear out on Friday as high pressure builds in. Saturday looks to be a pretty nice day with sunshine and mild temperatures, however, another wave riding along that stalled out front will send some clouds back in by late in the day. While most of the rain associated with that wave will stay offshore, there is the chance that some showers could reach the South Coast Saturday night and early Sunday. As that wave starts to pull away on Sunday skies will only slowly clear out. High pressure returns on Monday with more sunshine and mild temperatures.
Most of the models keep the rain near or off the South Coast Saturday night and early Sunday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Meanwhile, in the Atlantic, we have two named storms and a third that likely will be named in the next few days. We’ll start with Hurricane Gabrielle, which still has maximum sustained winds near 75 mph. It is centered about 385 miles west of the Azores, moving toward the east at 31 mph. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Azores at this time. Gabrielle will cross the Azores tonight and early Friday, then will likely become extratropical and weaken over cooler waters as it approaches the coast of Portugal this weekend.
Radar from the Azores shows Hurricane Gabrielle approaching the islands. Loop provided by Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School.
A little closer to home is Tropical Storm Humberto, which now has maximum sustained winds near 50 mph. It is centered about 465 miles east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving toward the northwest at 8 mph. Humberto is expected to strengthen into a hurricane on Friday, and could become a pretty potent storm this weekend as it passes well north of the Greater Antilles. The current forecast shows that it should turn more toward the northwest and eventually north as it reaches the western edge of a ridge of high pressure, passing west of Bermuda early next week. However, Humberto’s future isn’t quite that simple. We’ll get into that a bit more later.
Forecast track for Tropical Storm Humberto. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
The more immediate concern is with a tropical wave crossing Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos this afternoon. This system has been producing squally conditions across the northeastern Caribbean for the past day or two, and will continue to do so as it moves northwestward over the next few days. The system could consolidate into an area of low pressure tonight or Friday as it moves into the Bahamas. The storm may become a tropical depression or tropical storm this weekend, and if it does, it would be named Imelda. The future of this system is a lot murkier than the others. It will be traversing the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and upper-level conditions should be favorable, so the system could intensify pretty rapidly, but where it goes is still a giant question mark. Forecast models always struggle with systems that haven’t developed yet, and they already have a wide range of solutions for this system. Complicating that is the fact the Humberto will not be that far away, and there is the potential for the storms to interact with each other. This could alter the tracks of both storms,, making for even higher uncertainty that usual.
There is a considerable amount of uncertainty where the system goes once it gets past the Bahamas. Image provided by Polar Wx.
While the track will obviously dictate what effects this system would have on land, there are bigger concerns. A frontal system will stall out near the region, bringing some heavy rain into parts of the Mid-Atlantic states and the Carolinas. With this system likely to be at least nearby for a couple of days to start the week, there is the potential for some very heavy rain across parts of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states. In fact, some models show the potential for as much as 5-10 inches (or more) of rain over the next week. While the region has been in a drought, that much rain at once will likely lead to widespread significant flooding. Parts of this region experienced devastating flooding just one year ago from Hurricane Helene, and still have not recovered. This would be a significant setback to those recovery efforts.
Most of the models show some significant rainfall for the Carolinas over the next week. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Friday: Morning clouds give way to some afternoon sunshine. High 74-81.
Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 55-62.
Saturday: Morning sun, then clouds return in the afternoon. High 71-78, coolest along the coast.
Saturday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers, mainly near the South Coast. Low 55-62.
Sunday: Any linger showers near the South Coast end early, otherwise plenty of clouds with some afternoon sun developing, especially north of the Mass Pike. High 73-80.
Summer officially ends at the Autumnal Equinox at 2:19 this afternoon, but summer-like weather will continue beyond that.
Astronomical Fall begins with the Autumnal Equinox at 2:19pm today. Image provided by EarthSky.org
High pressure remains in control for today and part of Tuesday, keeping us dry, as has been the case for much of the summer. After a cool weekend, temperatures will start to moderate a bit today, but Tuesday will be rather warm and somewhat humid, with many locations likely topping 80. Clouds will start to move in during the day as a frontal system approaches the region. This will bring in some showers and possibly some thunderstorms late in the day and at night. As the front slows down, a wave of low pressure will ride along it on Wednesday, bringing in some additional showers along with much cooler temperatures. We do need the rain, and some models show the potential for some very beneficial amounts. However, for the most part, they have overestimated rainfall with several recent systems, plus there’s an old adage that usually holds true when talking about rainfall forecasts during a drought – “When in Drought, Leave it Out”. So, even though Wednesday will be a cool and damp day, it’s likely not going to be the widespread heavy rain that we need.
Temperatures could top 80 in many areas on Tuesday. Image provided by weathermodels.com.
High pressure builds in for Wednesday night and early Thursday with some drier air, but it won’t last long. An upper-level low pressure system and its surface reflection over the Great Lakes will start to slowly move into southeastern Canada toward the end of the week. The models are all over the place with the timing and strength of this system, but it looks like a second period of rainfall is expected possibly starting as early as Thursday afternoon, continuing into Friday night or possibly Saturday. Temperatures on Friday could be tricky. Several models show the system sending a warm front across the region, so even though we’re expecting more showers, temperatures could get well into the 70s. Of course, if the front gets hung up south of New England, temperatures may stay stuck in the 60s. We’re leaning towards the warmer scenario for now, but it is far from a lock. The system pulls away on Saturday then high pressure builds back in with drier air for Sunday.
Many models show the potential for a decent amount of rain between our two systems this week. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 68-75.
Monday night: Clear skies during the evening, becoming partly cloudy overnight. Low 54-61.
Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds through midday, then clouds thicken up in the afternoon with some late-day showers and thunderstorms develop. High 76-83.
Tuesday night: Cloudy with showers likely. Low 58-65.
Wednesday: Cloudy and cooler with more showers. High 66-73.
Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy, showers ending in the evening. Low 54-61.
Thursday: More clouds than sun, showers may redevelop in the afternoon. High 64-71.
Thursday night: Cloudy with showers likely. Low 55-62.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with additional showers, mainly in the morning. High 70-77.
Saturday: Morning clouds and a few showers across the Cape and Islands give way to some afternoon sunshine. High 70-77.
Astronomical Summer ends on Monday, and the final weekend of summer will feature quiet but cooler weather.
Drought conditions continue to worsen across the region. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.
Skies clear out tonight as low pressure pulls away from the region, setting us up for a rather nice day on Friday. A cold front will cross the region with just a few clouds accompanying it, but ahead of it temperatures will get well into the 70s, with 80s in some spots. High pressure builds in with much cooler conditions for Friday night and Saturday. Saturday night will be rather chilly, with some of the normally colder spots dropping into the 30s. As the high slides off to the east temperatures will slowly moderate for Sunday and Monday with sunshine continuing. Summer officially ends and Fall begins on Monday at 2:19pm with the Autumnal Equinox.
Sunday morning could be on the chilly side. Image provided by weathermodels.com
Thursday night: Clear skies. Low 55-62.
Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 72-79.
Friday night: Clear and cooler. Low 44-51, milder in urban areas and right along the coast.
Saturday: Plenty of sunshine. High 63-70.
Saturday night: Clear and chilly. Low 40-47, milder in urban areas and right along the coast
We’ve got a couple of very nice days coming up across the region.
Average high temperatures for mid-September are in the lower to middle 70s. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
A weak cold front moves through this evening with little fanfare, then high pressure builds in with sunshine and cooler temperatures for Friday and Saturday. An upper-level disturbance moves through on Sunday with some showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Monday is a bit of a tricky forecast. Some models showed an upper-level low pressure area hanging around with more clouds and possibly some additional showers, but more recent trends have been for high pressure to build back in with drier weather.
The showers on Sunday will not make much of a difference for the ongoing drought. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Evening clouds, then becoming clear. Low 52-59.
Friday: Plenty of sunshine. High 67-74.
Friday night: Clear skies. Low 47-54.
Saturday: Morning sunshine with some afternoon clouds. High 70-77.
Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Low 52-59.
Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun with some showers likely in the afternoon. High 71-78.
Sunday night: Any showers end in the evening, clearing overnight. Low 52-59.
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