We’re less than 24 hours away from the first snowstorm of the year for most of the region, and while not a blockbuster, it will still have a sizable impact on the region.
Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for much of the Northeast. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
Low pressure will move across the Southeast and off the Mid-Atlantic coastline later today and tonight, passing south of New England on Sunday. Meanwhile, high pressure over Quebec will move into Atlantic Canada. While this high will provide cold air to start, due to its position and movement, combined with low pressure to the south, we’ve have gusty east winds across much of the region, possibly gusting to 30-40 mph or higher along the coast. With water temperatures still in the lower to middle 40s, this will mean that places close to the coastline will likely be rain or a mix to start. This includes parts of Cape Ann, the North Shore, Boston, and most of the South Shore, Cape Cod, and Southeastern Massachusetts. We’ll have a few flurries or sprinkles around this afternoon, but the steadier precipitation should move in between 6 and 9 pm. The precipitation may fall heavy at times overnight, but by daybreak winds will become more northeasterly, and eventually northerly towards midday. This will allow colder air to slide southward, changing the rain over to snow along the coast as well. This will also allow any untreated roads to rapidly ice up, so be careful if you will be out and about. The snow should eventually end during the evening, with winds rapidly diminishing overnight.
The High-Resolution Canadian Regional Model depicts the progression of the storm from later Saturday into Sunday evening. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
So, how much snow are we expecting? Well, if you read our initial forecast in the Weekend Outlook, we’re bumping numbers up a bit.
Cape Cod: Coating to 2 inches. Southeastern Massachusetts: 2-5″ I-95 corridor (Boston to Providence) and immediate North Shore: 4-7″ MetroWest/Merrimack Valley/Interior Essex County/Southern NH: 5-10″ isolated totals of 12″+
The Blend of Models is still closest to our forecast. Image provided by WeatherBell.
We’ll clear out for Monday with chilly temperatures, due to the fresh snowcover. Another system follows for late Tuesday and Wednesday, and while this one may have some snow to start, it will end up much warmer with strong winds and heavy rain being the main concerns.
Your luck has run out. Our first snowstorm of the winter is on the way this weekend.
A Winter Storm Watch is in effect north and west of I-95. Image provided by the National Weather Service office in Norton, MA
High pressure builds in for tonight and Friday, with clearing skies, breezy, and colder conditions. Clouds star to move back in Friday night and Saturday as low pressure moves across the Deep South and into the Southeast. It’ll move up the coast on Saturday, likely passing south of the region on Sunday, while high pressure in southern Quebec slides off to the east. There is still some uncertainty as what exactly will transpire, so some of the next paragraph is subject to change.
There is still plnety of disagreement among the models as to the evolution of the low pressure system. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
While the high over southern Quebec will provide us with plenty of cold air to start, it’s not in the perfect position to provide the region with enough cold air to keep everything all snow, especially near the coastline. Winds will be out of the east, allowing milder air to move in off of the relatively mild Atlantic. (To get mostly snow, you want to high to be a little farther west, so you get northeast winds across our area). There is also still some uncertainty as to exact track the low pressure area takes and how close it gets to the coastline, which will also lead to some rain in spots, especially near the coast. We should see the snow developing Saturday evening, likely starting as a mix or even just plain rain along the coast from Boston southward since winds will be out of the east. Snow will continue through the night, but it may stay rain or a mix right along the immediate coastline for a while. By mid-morning Sunday, as the low passes by, winds will shift from the east into the north, allowing the cold air to push back in, changing everything to all snow, even across Cape Cod and the Islands before everything winds down by evening. The rain and milder temperatures keep accumulations lower near the coast, but inland, this will not be a blockbuster storm, as the snow , while falling for a while, will only be light to occasionally moderate for most of the time. So, how much are we looking at?
Cape Cod: Coating – 2″ I-95 corridor (Boston-Providence and points South+East): 2-5″, lowest along the coast Areas North+ West of I-95: 4-8″ with isolated totals to 10″ possible.
The National Blend of Models is closest to our thinking for snow amounts. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Everything winds down Sunday night, and high pressure builds back in for Monday with sunshine and seasonably chilly conditions.
With fresh snowcover, Monday morning could be quite chilly across the region. Image provided by weathermodels.com
Thursday night: Clear skies, breezy. Low 17-24.
Friday: Plenty of sunshine, breezy during the morning. High 29-36.
Friday night: Partly cloudy. Low 20-27.
Saturday: Becoming mostly cloudy. High 32-39.
Saturday night: Snow developing, mixed with or changing to rain along the coast, becoming windy. Low 25-32 during the evening, temperatures hold steady or rise a bit overnight.
Sunday: Windy with snow likely, except rain or mix changing to snow along the coast by midday. High 32-39, temperatures rapidly drop along the coast in the afternoon.
Sunday night: Any lingering snow ends in the evening, some clearing late at night, winds rapidly diminish during the evening. Low 13-20.
Wet n Wild was the name of a water park in Orlando that closed many years ago, but it also could describe our weather today.
Wet n Wild may be gone from Orlando, but it’ll be an apt description of our weather today. Image provided by Tripadvisor.
Low pressure will move up the Hudson Valley today, producing rain, some of it heavy during the morning, but it will taper off during the afternoon, ending during the evening. Many places could see 1-3 inches of rain, resulting in flooding in some areas. Luckily, it’s been dry for the past couple of months after a very wet summer, so river levels have dropped quite a bit, and many of them can handle this amount of rain. Rain isn’t the only threat with this storm though. Strong southeast to south winds are likely today, which could result in tree and power line damage. The strong winds may also result in some coastal flooding along south-facing coastlines. The gusty south winds will also bring unseasonably mild air in, with temperatures approaching or topping 60 by midday. Once the system passes our latitude, winds will shift into the west and southwest this afternoon. They won’t be as strong as in the morning, but will be quite gusty, and will bring a quick end to the mild air.
Wind gusts in excess of 50 mph are possible across much of the region today. Image provided by WeatherBell.
The system pulls away Monday night with the rain ending and winds rapidly diminishing, but an upper-level low moves into the Northeast on Tuesday. This will bring in more clouds, with a few showers popping up, possibly mixed with a little wet snow. High pressure then builds in for Wednesday through Friday with sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures. We do have to keep an eye on an ocean storm well to our east. Some of the models try to drift it close enough to bring in some clouds towards Thursday or Friday, or possibly even some showers, but right now, we’re thinking that we’ll stay dry. A weak system may bring in some clouds and possibly some rain or snow showers on Saturday, then we should be dry and a little milder for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
Looking like a Green Christmas with temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal. Image provided by weathermodels.com
Monday: Rain, heavy at times during the morning, tapering off to showers in the afternoon, very windy, with gusts to 50 mph or higher, especially along the coast. High 56-63.
Monday night: Showers end in the evening, some clearing overnight, winds rapidly diminishing. Low 33-40.
Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for a few rain or snow showers, much cooler. High 41-48.
Tuesday night: Clearing. Low 24-31.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, breezy at times. High 37-44.
Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy again. High 36-43.
Friday: Partly sunny, a bit breezy, especially early. High 33-40.
Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a few rain or snow showers. High 35-42.
Christmas Eve: Partly to mostly sunny. High 39-46.
This weekend is going to end up very similar to last weekend, dry to start, then very wet to end.
Temperatures will be as much as 10-15 degrees above normal across much of the region on Friday. Image provided by weathermodels.com.
High pressure keeps us dry into Saturday. We’ll start off chilly this evening under clear skies, but as winds shift into the southwest, temperatures will level off toward midnight, and could rise a bit overnight. Friday is about as good a day as we can expect for mid-December with sunshine and above normal temperatures. Clouds start to filter in Friday night and during the day on Saturday as low pressure begins to develop across the Southeast. As that low moves northward, we’ll have plenty of clouds on Sunday, with rain moving in by late afternoon or evening. The rain will likely be heavy Sunday night into Monday morning, with some gusty south winds bringing unseasonably mild air back in, with temperatures making a run at 60 in some spots. Monday is where the models start to diverge. Some of them bring the storm well to our west (central or western NY), some a little closer (western MA). Overall, this doesn’t make too much of a difference at this point, but the eastern track would likely mean the rain ends earlier, and the cold front swings through earlier, bringing an end to the mild air. Beyond that, the models rapidly diverge, which has significant impacts on the forecast around here for Tuesday and into midweek, but this forecast only goes through Monday, so we’ll worry about next week in our Weekly Outlook Sunday night.
Where will the storm be centered Monday afternoon? It makes a difference for the forecast. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Clear skies. Low 26-33 during the evening, temperatures may rise a little after midnight.
Friday: Plenty of sunshine, breezy at times, especially through early afternoon. High 45-52.
Friday night: Clear skies during the evening, some clouds start to move in overnight. Low 32-39.
Saturday: Intervals of sunshine and clouds. High 43-50.
Some rain is on the way along with milder temperatures as we head towards the weekend.
Some very heavy rain is possible Sunday night, especially well inland. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
We start off with high pressure in control, keeping us dry through Saturday. Temperatures will be chilly tonight, but as the high moves off to the east, we’ll start to moderate for Friday and Saturday. Friday should feature a decent amount of sunshine, but clouds will increase and thicken up during the day on Saturday as low pressure heads toward the Great Lakes. As that low heads into southeastern Canada, southerly winds will start to pick up on Sunday, resulting in quite a mild day, with temperatures likely getting close to 60 degrees in many locations. It looks like most of the rain should hold off until late in the day, but once it moves in, some heavy rain is possible Sunday night into Monday morning. South to southwest winds will be quite gusty at night as well. The low will drag a cold front across the region Monday morning, with the rain ending by early afternoon. Once the front moves through, west to northwest winds will usher much cooler air in. So, even though we’ll likely start the day well into the 50s, we’ll drop in the 40s by afternoon. Skies should start to clear out by late in the day.
Temperatures could still be in the 60s Monday morning ahead of a strong cold front. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Thursday night: Becoming mostly clear. Low 17-24.
Friday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 38-45.
Friday night: Clear during the evening, some clouds move in overnight. Low 26-33.
Saturday: Increasing and thickening clouds, milder. High 46-53.
Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 35-42.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy, becoming breezy and mild, rain developing late in the day. High 55-62.
Sunday night: Windy with periods of rain, possibly heavy at times. Low 52-59.
Monday: Rain ending around midday, some late-day clearing, still breezy. High 52-59 in the morning, temperatures drop through the afternoon.
Another rainy Saturday? Yup, we’ve got another rainy Saturday on the way.
Tropical Storm Philippe may have a role in our weather this weekend. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
We start off with another foggy night tonight, with plenty of moisture around and high pressure sliding off to the east. Once the fog burns off Friday morning, we’ll still have plenty of clouds ahead of a cold front slowing moving in from the west. A few showers are possible during the day, but they’ll become more likely at night, and through a good chunk of the day on Saturday. Complicating matters is Tropical Storm Philippe, or what’s left of it. It will be moving northward, passing east of the region, but some of the rain from it could move into eastern Massachusetts. Eventually, it’ll get tugged northwestward by an upper-level low (more on that in a minute), moving into Maine or New Brunswick this weekend, with some heavy rain and gusty winds for parts of northern New England. The cold front moves across the region Saturday evening, bringing an end to the rain, then much cooler air settles in behind it. However, that upper-level low over southeastern Canada will move southeastward, which means that despite high pressure building in at the surface, we’ll still have plenty of clouds around Sunday and Monday, with a few popup showers possible.
The heaviest rain will stay well to our west, but there is the potential for some heavy rain in eastern New England this weekend. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Becoming mostly cloudy with areas of fog, some of it dense. Low 54-61.
Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance for a shower or two. High 67-74.
Friday night: Cloudy with showers developing. Low 57-64.
Saturday: Periods of rain and showers. High 61-68.
Saturday night: Showers end, some clearing possible late at night, becoming breezy. Low 46-53.
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, windy, cooler. High 57-64.
We’ve got a rather complicated forecast coming up as we officially end astronomical summer and begin fall with the autumnal equinox at 2:50am Saturday.
Fall officially begins early Saturday morning. Image provided by CBS News.
High pressure to our north will keep us dry and seasonably cool into Friday. However, high clouds will begin to stream northward from what is currently being called “Potential Tropical Cyclone 16”, but will likely be named Ophelia soon. Whether it is tropical or subtropical doesn’t have much impact on the forecast. Future Ophelia will likely strengthen a bit before moving into eastern North Carolina early Saturday.
Forecast track for Potential Tropical Cyclone 16. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
As our high pressure system moves off to the east, southerly flow will send the rain up the East Coast. This is where things get tricky, because another high pressure area will also be trying to build in from the northwest. We’ve seen this setup many times before, and what usually happens is that the high wins out and keeps most of the rain (or snow in the winter) off to our south. However, anytime there’s been a chance for rain this summer, we’ve ended up with a lot of rain. So, taking both of those ideas into account, here’s what we think will happen:
The rain will move up the coast on Friday and Friday night, but will have a tough time moving in early Saturday with plenty of dry air in place. Eventually, the rain will win out, overspreading the region during the afternoon. How far north it gets is still a big question, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to us if the rain never made it across the MA/NH border. Some of the rain may be heavy during the late afternoon and evening, especially south of the Mass Pike. The rain may taper off for a while Saturday night and early Sunday as the second high tries to build in, and the low to the south moves up into the Mid-Atlantic states. A second batch of showers is possible later Sunday and Sunday night as the low starts to turn more toward the northeast, eventually passing out to sea south of New England on Monday, with some additional showers possible.
Heavy rain is likely across parts of the region this weekend, but how far north is still in doubt. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Clear skies, though some high clouds will start to move in. Low 47-54.
Friday: Sunshine filtered through high clouds in the morning, clouds thicken up in the afternoon. High 65-72.
Friday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 49-56.
Saturday: Showers developing from south to north during the late morning and early afternoon, becoming a steady and potentially heavy rain by late afternoon. High 58-65 during the morning, temperatures drop into the 50s during the afternoon.
Saturday night: Rain tapers off to showers during the evening, mostly cloudy overnight. Low 49-56.
Sunday: Plenty of clouds, some showers may redevelop during the afternoon. High 60-67.
Sunday night: Cloudy with showers likely. Low 50-57.
Monday: Mostly cloudy, more showers around, especially during the morning. High 61-68.
Another rainy Monday is on the way, but much of the upcoming week will feature dry weather.
A frontal system will move into the region today while an area of low pressure develops off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. The low will ride up the front, passing close to or across southeastern New England later today. The result will be periods of rain and showers through the day today, some of which could be heavy at times. Some localized flooding is possible in spots, but we should have any flooding to the magnitude we saw last Monday. Everything winds down tonight as the system pulls away, then high pressure builds in with dry and seasonably mild conditions for Tuesday through Friday and probably Saturday as well.
The models are all forecasting heavy rain across the region today. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Late Saturday and Sunday is when things get complicated again. Low pressure will begin to develop off the Southeast coast later this week. As our high pressure system moves off to the east, moisture from the low to the south will start to head northward, and may result in some wet weather around here for Saturday night and Sunday. The forecast models don’t all have the same timing and evolution of this system, so we’ll likely be refining this part of the forecast when we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.
Normal high temperatures for late-September are in the lower 70s.
Monday: Periods of rain and showers, some of the rain may be heavy at times. High 64-71.
Monday night: Showers ending, then areas of fog develop. Low 54-61.
Tuesday: Becoming mostly sunny and breezy. High 68-75.
Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 50-57.
Wednesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 69-76.
Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 68-75.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 68-75.
Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sun, rain possible at night. High 65-72.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. High 65-72.
The final days of meteorological summer feature more rain, which is pretty much keeping to the theme we had all summer.
Rainfall has been well above normal across New England this summer. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.
The week starts off with a rather complex forecast, but today should be mainly dry with high pressure moving offshore. With the high centered mainly north and then east of us, we’ll have onshore winds, keeping temperatures on the cooler side of normal near the coastline. Moisture will begin streaming northward in the form of high clouds today, though they will thicken up and lower later in the day. Here’s where things start to get complicated. A frontal system is currently stalled out across the Southeast, it will gradually lift northward tonight and Tuesday, allowing some tropical moisture to follow. As moisture rides northward along the front, some rain is expected to move in late tonight and Tuesday, especially across southeastern New England. Some of this rain could be quite heavy, but how far north and west the rain shield extends, and how far northward the heavy rain gets is still a question mark. Right now, it looks like it’ll be mainly across the South Coast and parts of southeastern Massachusetts, but that is obviously subject to change. At the same time, we’ll also have another cold front approaching from the northwest. We’ll also be keeping a close eye on Hurricane Franklin well offshore and Tropical Storm (possibly Hurricane) Idalia in the Gulf of Mexico (more on these two below). Franklin will be helping to push the front to our south northward, while the other front moves in from the west. In between, we’ll have another round of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday, especially during the morning hours, before the approaching front finally moves through the region. Again, some heavy rain is possible in spots, but probably not with coverage or intensity expected across the South Coast on Tuesday.
More heavy rain is possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
High pressure builds in behind the cold front for Wednesday night, and remains in place into the weekend, keeping us mostly on the dry side, with temperatures starting cool, but gradually warming up as we get to the weekend. There is a potential fly in that ointment though. Idalia is expected to make landfall near the Big Bend area of Florida Tuesday night or early Wednesday, then head into the Carolinas and offshore on Thursday. The high building in here should block its northward progress and steer it out to sea well to our south. However, if the timing is off a bit, say Idalia slows down and makes landfall later than currently expected, then perhaps some of the moisture from it or its remnants ends up being dragged farther north, and ruins our forecast of drier weather into Labor Day Weekend. While this isn’t likely right now, it’s several days away, and things can change quickly, especially when tropical systems are involved. Either way, between Franklin and Idalia, we’ll have some rough surf across the beaches and coastal waters for much of the upcoming week, so keep that in mind if that’s where your plans bring you.
The GFS model shows high pressure building in for the end of the week and the weekend, shunting Idalia out to sea well to the south. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
By the weekend and into Labor Day, another cold front will approach the region, but aside from a few showers as it moves in on Sunday, it looks to remain mostly dry and warm.
As for the tropics, here’s the latest on our two named systems:
Satellite loop showing Tropical Storm Idalia in the northwestern Caribbean and Hurricane Franklin northeast of the Bahamas. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits
Hurricane Franklin was centered about 530 miles southwest of Bermuda as of 11pm Sunday, moving toward the north-northwest at 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 105 mph. Franklin continues to get better organized and will continue to strengthen for another day or two as it heads northward and then northeastward over warm waters. While it will pass west and northwest of Bermuda late Tuesday and Wednesday, it will likely be close enough to produce tropical storm conditions on the island, with some locally heavy showers, and winds gusting upwards of 40-60 mph. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be issued for Bermuda on Monday. After that, Franklin will likely head northeastward out into the open Atlantic while gradually losing tropical characteristics.
Forecast track for Hurricane Franklin. Image provided by the Bermuda Weather Service.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Idalia formed on Sunday in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. As of 2am Monday, it was centered about 150 miles south of the western tip of Cuba and barely moving. Maximum sustained winds were up to 60 mph. The forecast for Idalia calls for it to start heading northward, passing close to or across extreme western Cuba on Monday before heading into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Steady strengthening is expected, and Idalia will likely become a hurricane on Monday. Once into the Gulf, the water is very warm, and the warm water extends rather deeply under the surface, which is one of the main ingredients that feeds tropical systems. While the upper-level environment may not be perfect, the potential is there for Idalia to rapidly strengthen on Monday and Tuesday, possibly into a major hurricane as it approaches the Gulf Coast of Florida. Eventually it will start turning more toward the northeast, but when that turn occurs will be crucial for pinpointing landfall. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Florida Gulf Coast from Englewood to Indian Pass, which includes the Tampa Bay area. Once inland, it will start to weaken, but it should start to turn more toward the east-northeast and eventually east, as the high building in up here should block its northward progress. How quick that turn occurs will determine how long it stays over land before moving into the Atlantic, which in turn will determine how strong it still is when it reaches the Atlantic, if it survives that long. We’ll have a much more detailed post about the tropics on Tuesday as Idalia nears the Gulf Coast and Franklin makes its closest pass to Bermuda.
Forecast track for Tropical Storm Idalia. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny in the morning after some patchy fog burns off, clouds increase and thicken in the afternoon. High 73-80.
Monday night: Mostly cloudy, showers developing near the South Coast, Cape, and Islands late at night. Low 58-65.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with showers likely, possibly a thunderstorm, except some locally heavy rain and thunderstorms possible across parts of Rhode Island, southeastern Massachusetts, Cape Cod, and Islands. High 71-78.
Tuesday night: Cloudy with scattered showers, possibly a rumble of thunder. Low 61-68.
Wednesday: Cloudy with more showers, possibly a thunderstorm, ending in the afternoon, followed by clearing in the evening. High 72-79.
Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy. High 69-76.
Friday: Plenty of sunshine. High 72-79.
Saturday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 74-81.
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, chance for a shower. High 75-82.
More rain is on the way, but most of the weekend should end up rather nice.
Rainfall totals over the past few months have been 1.5 to 3 times the normal amount. We’ll add to that tonight and Friday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Low pressure is moving across the Great Lakes this afternoon, and it will slowly head eastward, sending clouds into the region today, with rain developing tonight. Friday is looking like a cloudy, breezy, cool, and wet day ahead of the system, with episodes of rain and showers, possibly a few embedded thunderstorms, especially near the South Coast. The system will try to send a warm front across the region, but it doesn’t look like it’ll make too much progress northward, so most of us will stay cool, except areas closer to the South Coast. Some of the rain may be heavy during the day on Friday. The rain will taper off Friday night, but it may not end until Saturday morning, especially across eastern Massachusetts. As a cold front pushes offshore, we’ll see some sunshine develop, but another upper-level disturbance will move across the region, generating some additional clouds, and possibly a few late-day showers. High pressure starts to build in on Sunday, but yet another upper-level disturbance will move through, likely producing more clouds. We’ll have some drier air in place, but there will still be a chance for a stray shower or two as the disturbance moves through. Monday looks like the pick of the weekend with partly to mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures.
The potential exists for some heavy rainfall across the region between tonight and Saturday morning. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Cloudy with periods of rain and showers developing, especially after midnight. Low 58-65.
Friday: Breezy and cool with episodes of rain and showers, some possibly heavy, a few rumbles of thunder are also possible. High 67-74.
Storm HQ 