Much of the upcoming weekend will feature dry and cool conditions. That will not be the case in parts of the Caribbean as Tropical Storm Melissa meanders around.
An upper-level low pressure system will settle into the Northeast for the next few days while high pressure starts to build in at the surface. The result will be cooler temperatures with some clouds each afternoon, but for the most part we’ll stay on the dry side. The exception will be Friday, with a weak disturbance will move through, possibly generating a couple of pop-up showers during the afternoon hours. As we get deeper into the weekend, the upper-level low will lift out and high pressure becomes more dominant, but we’ll stay on the cool side. As we get towards Monday, we may see more clouds starting to stream in as low pressure heads toward the Mid-Atlantic states. That system could have some impacts here later next week, but we’ll get into more detail about that in our Weely Outlook early Monday morning.
Meanwhile, in the Caribbean, Tropical Storm Melissa remains weak this afternoon, but that may change this weekend. As of 2pm, Melissa was centered about 200 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, drifting toward the north-northwest at 2pm. Maximum sustained winds were near 45 mph. Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches are in effect for parts of Haiti and all of Jamaica. Wind shear has been keeping Melissa weak since yesterday, but there are signs that the shear will relax over the next 24 hours, which would allow the storm to strengthen. With a large high pressure area building in to the north, the storm will drift westward for the next few days, right on top of some of the warmest water in the Caribbean. This could result in Melissa rapidly strengthening into a powerful hurricane near or just south of Jamaica. Strong winds and torrential rainfall could lash the island, as well as nearby portions of Haiti and eastern Cuba for days. Some models show the potential for 2-4 FEET of rain by early next week, which would result in widespread significant flooding, and mudslides.
Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 38-45.
Friday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, chance for a shower or two. High 53-60.
Friday night: Clear skies. Low 36-43, a little milder across Cape Cod.
Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 50-57.
Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Low 34-41, a little milder across Cape Cod.
Sunday: Partly sunny. High 48-55.
Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 32-39, a little milder across Cape Cod.
Monday: Intervals of clouds and sun. High 47-54.
Storm HQ 