While the weather won’t be perfect for a long holiday weekend, it won’t be as bad as your weather app say it will be.
Believe it or not, rainfall has actually been below normal this morning for a good portion of the region. Images provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.
We’ll have high pressure building in, and remaining in place through Saturday, which means drier weather and lower humidity, but it will remain warm. There’s still a slight chance for a pop-up shower Friday afternoon, but these should be few and far between. Clouds will start to move in late Saturday ahead of a slow-moving frontal system. In addition, another upper-level low will move into the Great Lakes, with disturbances riding around it. So, that means that for Sunday, Monday, and July 4th, we’re back in the same pattern we’ve been in, with higher humidity, and a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. None of the days should be a washout, but if you’ve got outdoor plans, make sure you keep an eye on the sky (or the radar), and be prepared to head inside if need be. For fireworks displays Tuesday night, most of the thunderstorm activity should diminish after sunset, but obviously, this is a little hard to pinpoint several days in advance.
Longer-range forecasts show no end to this pattern, with troughs of low pressure and/or cutoff lows continuing to drop into the Great Lakes and the Northeast. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy, some patchy fog may develop. Low 60-67.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a stray shower during the afternoon. High 78-85, coolest along the coast.
Friday night: Partly cloudy. Low 59-66.
Canada Day: Partly sunny. High 78-85, coolest along the coast.
Saturday night: Becoming mostly cloudy, chance for a few late-night showers. Low 62-69.
Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun with showers and thunderstorms developing, most widespread during the afternoon. High 74-81.
Sunday night: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms tapering off during the evening. Low 63-70.
Monday: Partly sunny, showers and thunderstorms pop up during the afternoon. High 78-85.
Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers end in the evening. Low 63-70.
Fourth of July: Intervals of clouds and sun, showers and thunderstorms possible during the afternoon and evening. High 77-84.
This week’s forecast is fairly simple, because we’re stuck in the same weather pattern that we’ve been in for quite some time.
One upper-level low slowly moves through this week, another one starts to move in next weekend. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
Upper-level low pressure over the Great Lakes will very slowly move eastward this week while weakening. As disturbances rotate around this low, we’ll have a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening each day. Not everyone will get these, and none of the days will be a washout, but the threat exists each day for some showers and thunderstorms. Any storms that do form will likely produce heavy downpours, as we’ll have a warm and humid airmass in place. A few strong to severe storms are possible, especially today, but for the most part, we’re just looking at your typical garden-variety thunderstorms each day. The upper low finally starts to move out next weekend, but another one drops right into the Great Lakes in its place, keeping the unsettled weather going for a few more days.
With all the cloudcover, temperatures will average a little below normal for most of the next week. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Monday: Morning fog, then intervals of clouds and sun with showers and thunderstorms developing, some could be quite strong. High 77-84, a little cooler along the coast from the North Shore to the New Hampshire Seacoast.
Monday night: Mostly cloudy, fog redevelops, a few more showers, mainly during the evening. Low 62-69.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy with some afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High 72-79.
Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy, showers taper off in the evening, fog likely again. Low 62-69.
Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sun, breezy, chance for a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High 73-80.
Thursday: Partly sunny, some showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 74-81.
Friday: Partly sunny, an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible. High 73-80.
Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sun, breezy, chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 76-83.
Sunday: More clouds than sun, breezy, more showers and thunderstorms possible. High 74-81.
The first weekend of summer is not going to feature much, if any sunshine, but it will be warm and humid. Meanwhile, the tropics are in mid-summer mode.
Dewpoints will be near or just above 70 across the region Saturday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.
As has been the case for the past couple of months, an upper-level low will be the main driver of our weather for the next few days as it lifts northward from the Tennessee Valley into the eastern Great Lakes and then across the Northeast. Low pressure at the surface will send a warm front our way, spreading lots of clouds in tonight, with a noticeable increase in humidity on Friday as the front moves through. The front may be accompanied by a few showers and thunderstorms, but it won’t be a washout. Showers and thunderstorms may be a little more numerous on Saturday, and some of them could be locally heavy. More showers and thunderstorms are possible on Sunday as the system moves across the region and off to the east. So, things improve on Monday, right? Try again. Another upper-level low moves into the Midwest, which means unsettled conditions continue, with some additional showers and thunderstorms, and this pattern may persist for a good chunk of next week. Keep in mind, that even though there are showers and thunderstorms in the forecast every day, each day shouldn’t be a washout. They’ll be most likely during the afternoon and evening each day, but it doesn’t mean they’ll cover the entire area.
Despite the showers and storms forecast each day this weekend, most of the models are not showing an excessive amount of rainfall. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Meanwhile, in the tropics, things have gotten active. Thanks to sea surface temperatures more reminiscent of late August than late June, two tropical systems have developed from waves moving off the African coast. We usually don’t see storms of this type begin to develop until late July or August, and to have two of them in June is extremely rare. The more immediate concern is Tropical Storm Bret. As of 2pm Thursday, Bret was centered about 45 miles east-northeast of Barbados, moving toward the west at 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 65 mph. Barbados has already reported wind gusts as high as 52 mph. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for many of the islands in the Lesser Antilles. Bret has likely peaked in intensity, but it will bring very squally conditions to the islands as it moves through later today and tonight. Once it moves into the eastern Caribbean on Friday, increasing wind shear will begin to rip the system apart, and it should weaken and degenerate into a tropical wave over the weekend as it moves into the central Caribbean.
As Bret approaches the Lesser Antilles, the wind shear is evident as most of the thunderstorm activity is displaced east of the center. Loop provided by NOAA.
Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Four has developed in the Central Atlantic. As of 11am Thursday, it was centered about 1270 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, moving toward the west-northwest at 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 35 mph. This system should strengthen into Tropical Storm Cindy over the next day or so, and will continue to strengthen through Saturday. However, after that, increasing wind shear will begin to take its toll on this system as well, and it will begin to weak. The track should bring in more toward the northwest with time, meaning it will stay over the open waters of the Central Atlantic, and not impact any land areas.
None of the models show TD 4 as a threat to any land areas over the next 3-5 days. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.
Thursday night: Becoming mostly cloudy with areas of fog likely, a shower or two is possible. Low 54-61.
Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy, much more humid, chance for a few showers, mainly across the interior. High 74-81.
Friday night: Mostly cloudy, a shower is possible, mainly during the evening. Low 62-69.
Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers and thunderstorms expected in the afternoon. High 75-82.
Saturday night: Plenty of clouds, a few showers around. Low 62-69.
Sunday: Clouds with some sunny breaks, more showers and thunderstorms possible. High 78-85.
Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, some additional showers likely, especially during the evening. Low 61-68.
Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy with more showers and thunderstorms likely. High 77-84.
Astronomical summer begins at 10:57am Wednesday, and right on cue, some summer weather will move into the region by then.
Astronomical summer officially begins Wednesday morning. Image provided by Earth.com
The week starts off with yet another upper-level low in place across the Northeast, which means we’ll have plenty of clouds generated each day along with some showers during the afternoon and evening hours. Showers may continue for a good chunk of the night tonight as another disturbance rotates around that upper-level low. Temperatures will remain on the cool side for mid-June, especially near the coast, where a seabreeze is likely. By Wednesday, the upper-level low moves away, and a ridge of high pressure builds into the East Coast. As a result, we’ll turn drier and warmer, with temperatures likely getting into the 80s in many locations, possibly approaching 90, especially on Friday. With the warmth will come increasing humidity levels, especially over the weekend, and which may allow for a few thunderstorms to pop Friday afternoon. The ridge starts to break down over the weekend as a disturbance moves toward the region, likely producing some showers and thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms become a little more numerous on Sunday ahead of a cold front dropping down from the north.
Dewpoints could climb into the lower 70s around here by next Saturday. Images provided by Weathermodels.com
On a separate note, the tropics are starting to show signs of life. Aided by sea surface temperatures more reminiscent of late August than mid-June, a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa a few days ago has been slowly organizing over the weekend, Conditions are favorable for further development, and it will likely become a tropical depression at some point later today or Tuesday. Its immediate future calls for a westward track with gradual strengthening, and no threat to land for much of the upcoming week. As we get to the end of the week, that becomes more complicated. Once the storm does form, we’ll have a more detailed blog post about it, and what its future may look like.
Many of the models quickly bring the disturbance in the eastern Atlantic to hurricane strength by midweek. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Monday: Partly sunny, chance for a few showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. High 67-74, coolest along the coast.
Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with showers likely. Low 52-59.
Tuesday: Partly sunny, a few more showers possible, especially during the afternoon. High 66-73, coolest along the coast.
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 52-59.
Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 70-77.
Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 77-84, coolest along the South Coast.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, slight chance for a late-day shower or thunderstorm. High 80-87, coolest along the South Coast.
Saturday: More clouds than sun, breezy, scattered showers and thunderstorms develop. High 80-87.
Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, more showers and thunderstorms expected. High 75-82.
We’ve got good news and bad news. Good news: the 4-day period this forecast encompasses won’t be half bad. Bad news: the 4-day period this forecast encompasses will be half bad.
Friday is the pick of the weekend with temperatures topping 80 in much of the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.
We start off with high pressure in control tonight and early Friday with dry and seasonably mild conditions. Low pressure sends a warm front our way on Friday, with more clouds in the afternoon along with more humid air, and eventually, some showers and thunderstorms by evening. The low pressure system will take it’s time moving across the region as it will be accompanied by yet another upper-level low, which means Saturday will feature occasional showers and thunderstorms and cooler temperatures. The showers will likely continue into early Sunday before tapering off, but with the low only slowly departing, clouds will remain for much of the day. We should see some improvement on Monday, but with that upper-level low nearby, we could see a few pop-up showers in the afternoon.
Many of the models are showing quite a bit of rain around here this weekend. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Clear skies. Low 56-63.
Friday: Sunshine in the morning then clouds start to increase along with humidity levels, showers and thunderstorms possible by evening. High 77-84.
Friday night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 56-63.
Saturday: Cloudy with occasional showers and some bouts of steadier rain, a few thunderstorms possible as well. High 62-69.
Saturday night: Plenty of clouds with a few more showers likely. Low 52-59.
Sunday: Showers taper off in the morning, mostly cloudy in the afternoon with a few breaks of sun possible. High 63-70.
Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 51-58.
Monday: Partly sunny, a shower is possible during the afternoon. High 66-73.
Another week, another upper-level low. This week shouldn’t be as gloomy as last week at least.
Average high temperatures for mid-June are in the middle 70s. Images provided by Weathermodels.com
We’re starting the week off on a mild note ahead of a cold front. Most of the day should remain dry, with plenty of clouds and some sunny break. The shower and thunderstorm activity with the front likely hods off until evening, with most of it coming through overnight tonight into Tuesday morning. We’ll see some clearing in the afternoon, but another shower or thunderstorm may pop up late in the day. The front may stall out across the region before it washes out, with cooler air making into areas north of the Mass Pike, while areas to the south remain mild once again. After that, an upper-level low pressure area settles into the Great Lakes and starts moving eastward. A disturbance rotating around that low will move in on Wednesday, generating showers and thunderstorms. If the timing works out right, some of those storms could be strong to severe during the late afternoon hours, with strong winds, hail, and heavy downpours likely. Thursday will be a bit more tranquil, but with the upper low moving in, we’ll have clouds and possibly some afternoon showers. Right now, Friday and the weekend look fairly similar, with morning sun, afternoon clouds, and possibly a few showers or thunderstorms each day.
Another upper-level low pressure system will influence our weather for much of the week. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
Monday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, a few showers around in the morning across Southern New Hampshire. High 76-83, a little cooler near the South Coast.
Monday night: Plenty of clouds with showers likely, maybe a thunderstorm. Low 56-63.
Tuesday: Showers taper off around daybreak, otherwise mostly cloudy with a few sunny breaks in the afternoon. High 69-76 south of the Mass Pike, 62-69 north of the Mass Pike.
Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 52-59.
Wednesday: Partly sunny, showers and thunderstorms expected late in the day and into the evening. High 73-80.
Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for an afternoon shower. High 72-79.
Friday: Partly sunny, showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and evening. High 73-80.
Saturday: Intervals of sun and clouds, chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. High 71-78.
Sunday: Partly sunny, chance for a late-day shower or thunderstorm. High 73-80.
Some improvement to our weather is coming this weekend, but it won’t last that long.
The first week of June has been a cool one across the Northeast, especially near the coast. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.
The upper-level low pressure area that has kept us cloudy and cool with occasional showers for the past several days will gradually lift out over the weekend. It will remain nearby on Friday with more clouds, some additional showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. With cold air aloft, any thunderstorms that form could produce some small hail. By Saturday, the upper-level low finally starts to move out, but it will remain close enough to produce a few more showers, especially during the first half of the day. With the low moving out, some of the smoke from the wildfires in Canada maystart to drift back into the region, resulting in hazy conditions, but for now at least, it doesn’t look anywhere near as bad as what New York has had for the past few days. High pressure builds in for Saturday night and Sunday with drier and warmer weather, but we’ll still have the smoke and haze to deal with. By Monday, another low pressure system begins to approach from the west, but it looks like any showers associated with it will hold off until late in the day or at night. This system may bring in a much-needed soaking rain for Tuesday, but we’ll wait until it gets closer for a more definitive look at that.
Sunday is the definitely the pick of the weekend. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 45-52.
Friday: Plenty of clouds with a few sunny breaks, some showers and thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon. A few storms may produce small hail. High 61-68.
Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers and storms taper off in the evening. Low 47-54.
Saturday: Morning clouds and a few showers, some sunshine develops in the afternoon, but it could be dimmed by haze and smoke. High 65-72, coolest along the coast.
Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy, hazy. Low 49-56.
Sunday: Morning hazy sunshine, clouds start to move in during the afternoon. High 74-81, coolest along the coast.
Sunday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 53-60.
Monday: Plenty of clouds with showers possible late in the day, breezy. High 74-81.
Once again, we’re stuck in a persistent weather pattern, but unlike the recent ones that have kept us mostly dry, this one will keep us cool and damp for a good chunk of the week.
An upper-level low will meander around the Northeast and Atlantic Canada for the next several days. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
An upper-level low pressure system will hang around for much of the upcoming week, keeping temperatures on the cool side for the most part. A surface low pressure system will pull away today, with any lingering showers ending, and some breaks in the clouds are possible by late in the day. Tuesday may end up as a somewhat decent day with some sunshine and warmer temperatures, however, another disturbance will rotate around the upper-low, sending a cold front our way, triggering some showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. With cold air aloft, a few of the storms may produce some hail, but we’re not looking at a widespread severe weather event. Some additional weaker disturbances will move through between Wednesday and Friday, resulting in more clouds, some occasional showers, and cooler temperatures once again. It looks like the upper-level low will finally move out next weekend and high pressure builds in with drier and warmer weather. However, upper-level lows always seem to hang around a little longer than the models show, so, even though our forecast is for improvement, we’re a little weary that it may be a little slower to occur.
Temperatures will average 5-10 degrees below normal across the Northeast this week. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Monday: Plenty of clouds with some showers, especially in the morning, some sunny breaks possible in the afternoon, breezy. High 59-66, coolest along the coast.
Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 47-54.
Tuesday: Partly sunny, showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and evening. High 70-77.
Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. Low 48-55.
Wednesday: Plenty of clouds, chance for a few showers. High 62-69.
Thursday: More clouds than sun, more showers possible. High 61-68.
Friday: Partly sunny, chance for some additional showers. High 61-68.
All good things must come to an end, and that includes our recent stretch of dry and warm weather.
Some record highs are possible across the interior on Friday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
We’ve got one more warm to hot day on Friday before a backdoor cold front brings an end to the warm weather party. The front will be accompanied by showers and possibly a few thunderstorms, then once it sags southward, gusty northeast winds will usher much cooler air into the region for Saturday. In fact, the cooler air will hang around through the weekend and into Monday. The other forecast issue is an offshore low pressure system, and how close it gets to New England, which will have an impact on the forecast for later Sunday and Monday. Right now, we’re thinking that it stays far enough offshore to have little impact on most of the region, though it may be close enough for some showers across eastern Massachusetts. We’re not expecting a washout unless something changes significantly.
Some models bring rain into parts of eastern Massachusetts Sunday and Monday, some don’t. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy, fog possible near the South Coast. Low 57-64, a little cooler near the South Coast.
Friday: Morning sun, then increasing clouds with showers and possibly some thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening. High 78-85 near the coast, 86-93 across the interior.
Friday night: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely. Low 47-54.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy and quite breezy and lingering showers end in the morning, some sunny breaks may develop late in the day. High 56-63, coolest near the coast.
Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 42-49.
Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for some showers across eastern Massachusetts, breezy. High 55-62, a little cooler near the coast.
Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, showers possible across eastern Massachusetts. Low 44-51.
Monday: More clouds than sun, again some showers are possible, mainly in eastern Massachusetts. High 61-68, coolest near the coast.
Finally, Hurricane Season began on Thursday, and at the end of our preview, we mentioned that the Atlantic was quiet. Well, that turned out to be incorrect. A cluster of thunderstorms in the Gulf of Mexico got organized enough on Thursday to be classified as Tropical Depression Two. The system is weak, though it has a chance to become a weak tropical storm on Friday, but it is expected to weaken and dissipate during the weekend, without impacting land. The thunderstorms from the system may end up producing heavy rain across parts of Cuba, Florida, and the Bahamas, but the system itself won’t do much.
Forecast track for Tropical Depression Two. Images provided by the National Hurricane Center.
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