The first half of the week is looking quite active, with all sorts of hazardous weather for the region.

The week starts off with high pressure over Quebec keeping us dry, but that won’t last long. Low pressure heading into the Great Lakes sends some clouds our way, then a secondary low pressure system will develop, passing across southern New England tonight and early Tuesday. The result will be a period of rain for much of the region, starting late this afternoon, and ending shortly after midnight, but that’s not the entire story. Across southern New Hampshire, temperatures may be cold enough for the precipitation to start as snow, with some accumulation expected, mainly from Manchester northward. By evening, warmer air will move in aloft, but cold air may get trapped at the surface, so we could be looking some freezing rain, again, mostly from Manchester northward. Precipitation tapers off to drizzle or freezing drizzle after midnight as the system pulls away. Tuesday looks to be a cloudy day with some patchy drizzle at times, and temperatures holding steady or only very slowly rising as we head through much of the day.

Another low pressure will start to make its way toward us Tuesday night into Wednesday, and this one will have some significant impacts on the region. We’ll see rain developing Tuesday night, continuing into Wednesday and it could be heavy at times. Many models are showing the potential for 1-2 inches of rain (or more), which would help put a dent in the ongoing drought. Accompanying the rain will be gusty south to southwest winds. Many models are showing the potential for wind gusts in excess of 40 mph across the region, with several showing even stronger winds, especially across eastern and southeastern Massachusetts. We’re skeptical that winds could be as strong as some of the models are showing, but it will be a windy day for sure. Those winds will also bring unseasonably warm air in, with temperatures likely getting well into the 50s across much of the region, with some places possibly topping 60. As the system passes by Wednesday night, it will drag a strong cold front through near or just after midnight. This will bring a quick end to the rainfall, but will also usher much colder air into the region. Many places could still be in the 50s or warmer at midnight, but will drop into the 30s by daybreak, and then hold steady or drop some more during the daytime hours despite clearing skies.

High pressure builds in for later Thursday into Saturday with mainly dry and cool conditions. Sunday is a bit of a question mark at this point. Some models show the potential for another system to move in with unsettled weather, some delay that storm until Monday, and some have it stay well to our south. At this point, it’s just too early to determine which, if any, solution is correct, so we’ll worry more about that in our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

Monday: Some morning sun, then becoming mostly cloudy with rain developing late in the day, except snow developing in southern New Hampshire. High 40-47.

Monday night: Cloudy, snow changing to freezing rain and potentially plain rain across southern New Hampshire, showers across the rest of the region, with everything winding down shortly after midnight, but a little drizzle or freezing drizzle may linger late at night. Low 28-35 north and west of I-95, 36-43 south and east of I-95.

Tuesday: Plenty of clouds with some spotty drizzle, maybe some freezing drizzle across southern New Hampshire. High 33-40 north of the Mass Pike 41-48 south of the Pike, a little warmer across Cape Cod and the South Coast.

Tuesday night: Cloudy with showers developing, possibly starting as a little freezing rain across central New Hampshire. Low 32-39 during the evening north and west of I-95, 40-47 south and east of I-95, temperatures slowly rise overnight.

Wednesday: Cloudy with periods of rain, some of it could be heavy, becoming windy. Rain ends shortly after midnight. High 56-63.

Thursday: Becoming partly sunny, breezy, especially in the morning. High 36-43 early, temperatures hold steady or drop during the day.

Friday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 30-37.

Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning, clouds start to move in during the afternoon. High 34-41.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of rain, especially late in the day. High 38-45.

We’ll get right to the point – despite the hype over the past several days, the vast majority of the region will NOT be having a White Thanksgiving. However, we are expecting more much-needed rainfall this week.

We start the week off with high pressure in control, providing us with sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures. Clouds start to move in tonight as low pressure moves from the Great Lakes towards Northern New England. This system will bring us some rain Tuesday morning and afternoon, but we’re a little concerned about Tuesday morning in particular. Temperatures will cool off pretty quickly Monday evening before the clouds arrive, and by the time the rain moves in near or just after daybreak, temperatures may be near freezing across parts of southern New Hampshire. The ground remains fairly warm, but if it’s near 32 and starts to rain, there could be a little icing, especially on elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses. Temperatures should quickly rise above 32 after daybreak, but if you’re going to be out in southern New Hampshire around daybreak Tuesday, use a little extra caution, especially if the rain moves in a little earlier than currently expected. Rain ends Tuesday afternoon and we clear out at night as high pressure builds in Tuesday night. Wednesday starts off with sunshine, but clouds stream right back in during the afternoon as low pressure begins to move out of the Tennessee Valley.

The latest indications are that this low pressure system will pass south of New England or possibly across Cape Cod during Thanksgiving and into Friday morning. The result will likely be a rainy Turkey Day, so keep this in mind if you are traveling for the holiday. Of course, this is far from locked in, as there is still some uncertainty in the models. Some show the storm passing far enough south that it misses the region entirely. Some bring in a period of heavier rain, and some have enough cold air in place at the start that the rain may start as snow across the interior on Thanksgiving Day, before quickly changing to rain. None of the models show a major snowstorm around here any more, despite a couple of runs of the models doing so last week. One or two show some decent accumulations for ski country, but even that is far from certain at this point. We’ll have much more detail in our Weekend Outlook which will be published on Wednesday this week with the holiday on Thursday. The storm pulls away Friday morning, and there’s the possibility that the rain could change over to snow before ending across areas north and west of Boston, but again, this is far from certain at this point. Blustery and colder weather moves in behind that storm for the weekend, with a few flurries possible at times.

Monday: Mostly sunny, clouds start to filter in towards evening, breezy. High 44-51.

Monday night: Becoming mostly cloudy, showers developing late at night, possibly as some freezing rain across southern New Hampshire. Low 30-37.

Tuesday: Rain likely, ending during the afternoon, some clearing late in the day. High 42-49 north of the Mass Pike, 50-57 south of the Pike.

Tuesday night: Becoming clear. Low 31-38.

Wednesday: Breezy with sunshine during the morning, then clouds start to move back in during the afternoon. High 43-50.

Thanksgiving Day: Cloudy with rain developing, possibly starting as a little wet snow across the interior. High 42-49 north and west of I-95, 50-57 south and east of I-95.

Friday: Showers ending in the morning, possibly changing to snow before ending across the interior, some clearing may develop in the afternoon. High 41-48.

Saturday: Partly sunny, breezy, colder, chance for a few flurries. High 37-44.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, chilly, chance for a few flurries. High 35-42.