We’ll get right to the point – despite the hype over the past several days, the vast majority of the region will NOT be having a White Thanksgiving. However, we are expecting more much-needed rainfall this week.

We start the week off with high pressure in control, providing us with sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures. Clouds start to move in tonight as low pressure moves from the Great Lakes towards Northern New England. This system will bring us some rain Tuesday morning and afternoon, but we’re a little concerned about Tuesday morning in particular. Temperatures will cool off pretty quickly Monday evening before the clouds arrive, and by the time the rain moves in near or just after daybreak, temperatures may be near freezing across parts of southern New Hampshire. The ground remains fairly warm, but if it’s near 32 and starts to rain, there could be a little icing, especially on elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses. Temperatures should quickly rise above 32 after daybreak, but if you’re going to be out in southern New Hampshire around daybreak Tuesday, use a little extra caution, especially if the rain moves in a little earlier than currently expected. Rain ends Tuesday afternoon and we clear out at night as high pressure builds in Tuesday night. Wednesday starts off with sunshine, but clouds stream right back in during the afternoon as low pressure begins to move out of the Tennessee Valley.

The latest indications are that this low pressure system will pass south of New England or possibly across Cape Cod during Thanksgiving and into Friday morning. The result will likely be a rainy Turkey Day, so keep this in mind if you are traveling for the holiday. Of course, this is far from locked in, as there is still some uncertainty in the models. Some show the storm passing far enough south that it misses the region entirely. Some bring in a period of heavier rain, and some have enough cold air in place at the start that the rain may start as snow across the interior on Thanksgiving Day, before quickly changing to rain. None of the models show a major snowstorm around here any more, despite a couple of runs of the models doing so last week. One or two show some decent accumulations for ski country, but even that is far from certain at this point. We’ll have much more detail in our Weekend Outlook which will be published on Wednesday this week with the holiday on Thursday. The storm pulls away Friday morning, and there’s the possibility that the rain could change over to snow before ending across areas north and west of Boston, but again, this is far from certain at this point. Blustery and colder weather moves in behind that storm for the weekend, with a few flurries possible at times.

Monday: Mostly sunny, clouds start to filter in towards evening, breezy. High 44-51.

Monday night: Becoming mostly cloudy, showers developing late at night, possibly as some freezing rain across southern New Hampshire. Low 30-37.

Tuesday: Rain likely, ending during the afternoon, some clearing late in the day. High 42-49 north of the Mass Pike, 50-57 south of the Pike.

Tuesday night: Becoming clear. Low 31-38.

Wednesday: Breezy with sunshine during the morning, then clouds start to move back in during the afternoon. High 43-50.

Thanksgiving Day: Cloudy with rain developing, possibly starting as a little wet snow across the interior. High 42-49 north and west of I-95, 50-57 south and east of I-95.

Friday: Showers ending in the morning, possibly changing to snow before ending across the interior, some clearing may develop in the afternoon. High 41-48.

Saturday: Partly sunny, breezy, colder, chance for a few flurries. High 37-44.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, chilly, chance for a few flurries. High 35-42.

We’re into April, but it won’t feel like it. In fact, there may be some flaky white stuff coming for parts of the region, and that’s not an April Fool’s joke.

A weak low pressure system will pass south of the region today, bringing in some clouds, but only a few rain showers, mainly near the South Coast. However, that’s just the warmup act for what is to come. Another low pressure system will follow on Tuesday, again passing south of the region. This one will spread in a few more showers, again favoring areas closer to the South Coast, but a stronger system will move into the Great Lakes, producing some severe weather across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This is the system that will impact us Wednesday into Thursday.

That system will slowly drift eastward spreading rain in during the day on Wednesday, some of which could be heavy. This will renew flooding concerns across the region. Meanwhile, a secondary area of low pressure will develop near the Mid-Atlantic states, heading northeastward while strengthening. This will bring more heavy rain in along with some gusty northeast winds. This could result in some coastal flooding along east-facing shorelines at high tide. This is also where the uncertainty starts to creep in. Whether the storm stays south of New England, passes close to the South Coast, or crosses Cape Cod, remains to be seen, but it will have an impact on the forecast. Why? As the system strengthens, it will drag cold air southward from Canada. We could see some snow mix in with the rain during the daytime on Wednesday, but with the sun angle getting higher and higher, and temperatures likely above freezing, it’ll have a very tough time accumulating unless it comes down fairly hard. Once the sunsets, accumulation will be a bit more likely, especially across the hills from Worcester County into the Monadnocks, but also across the lower elevations of the interior, where temperatures may drop close to freezing. This will depend on how far north the low actually travels. The farther north the low goes, the farther north you’ll need to be to see accumulating snow. While it’s still a little early for us to start talking about amounts, others have posted some of the model snow forecasts on the internet already. The problem is, these maps significantly overestimate the amount of snow that this storm will likely produce, due to the factors we listed above. We’ll likely post a more detailed look at this storm on Tuesday, when things should be a bit clearer.

Rain and snow showers should wind down on Thursday, but winds will remain gusty as the storm only slowly pulls away. An upper-level low pressure system will move in for Friday and Saturday, keeping the surface low pressure area nearby, resulting in breezy and chilly conditions, with a few more rain or snow showers possible. High pressure builds in for Sunday with drier and more seasonable conditions.

For the eclipse on Monday, right now, it looks like high pressure may provide the region with at least partially clear skies, but this can obviously change, so stay tuned for future updates. Tuesday is also an important day, as it is the home opener at Fenway for the Red Sox. Right now it looks sunny, but a seabreeze is likely, so even though temperatures could get well into the 50s and 60s inland, closer to the coast, temperatures may only be in the upper 40s or lower 50s. Obviously this can change as well.

Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers, mainly near the South Coast. High 51-58, a little cooler along the coast.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 34-41.

Tuesday: Cloudy with rain developing late in the day, mainly south of the Mass Pike. High 43-50, coolest along the coast.

Tuesday night: Periods of rain and showers spreading across the region, possibly mixed with or changing to sleet and/or snow from the Worcester Hills into the Monadnocks of southern New Hampshire, becoming breezy. Low 33-40.

Wednesday: Windy with rain, heavy at times, possibly mixed with a little sleet or snow at times inland and in the hills, especially at night. High 36-43.

Thursday: Windy with rain or snow showers gradually winding down. High 37-44, possibly warmer across southeastern Massachusetts

Friday: Cloudy and breezy with a few showers, possibly some snow showers. High 39-46.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with some additional showers, breezy. High 40-47.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, still breezy. High 47-54.

An active weather pattern means you won’t see the sun much this week.

High pressure is in control to start the week, but with plenty of low-level moisture around we’ll have plenty of clouds, along with some spotty drizzle. If we can get any sunshine, especially well inland, temperatures could get well into the 50s again, otherwise, places closer to the coast will stay in the 40s. A weak low pressure area moves up the coast for Tuesday, spreading some showers in, and keeping temperatures in the 40s, but that is still above normal for early March. We’ll turn much milder on Wednesday, with some spots possibly topping 60 degrees, despite plenty of clouds once again as another system begins to head toward the region. This one will bring in more rain for late Wednesday into Thursday, and some of it could be heavy. We’ll turn cooler on Thursday as system moves through, and there’s a chance that the rain could mix with snow before ending Thursday evening, especially north and west of Boston. Friday looks to be the pick of the week with some sunshine developing as high pressure builds in briefly.

Next weekend is a bit uncertain at this point. Most of the models show a system impacting the region, but they don’t agree on the timing or the details of the system. Temperatures look to be colder, and there is a chance that we could see some snow from the system across parts of the region. It is still early March, so this is not an uncommon occurrence. We should have a better idea of what to expect and when to expect it by the time we get to our Weekend Outlook Thursday afternoon.

Also, don’t forget – Daylight Saving Time begins next Sunday at 2am, when we “Spring Ahead”, and you lose an hour of sleep. The good news? Sunset next Sunday is at 6:45pm.

Monday: Patchy morning fog, otherwise plenty of clouds with some spotty drizzle, a few sunny breaks possible, especially inland. High 47-54, coolest along the coast.

Monday night: Cloudy with a chance for a few late-night showers. Low 36-43.

Tuesday: Plenty of clouds with showers likely, especially in the afternoon. High 45-52.

Tuesday night: Overcast with showers ending in the evening. Low 38-45 during the evening, temperatures hold steady or rise a bit overnight.

Wednesday: Cloudy and milder with rain developing in the afternoon, possibly heavy at night. High 55-62, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Thursday: Windy with showers gradually ending. High 42-49.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 42-49.

Saturday: Cloudy and breezy with some rain or snow possible. High 39-46.

Sunday: Cloudy and breezy with a chance for rain or snow. High 43-50.

Some snow is on the way, quite a bit for some areas, and probably more than once this week.

We’ll start the week off with sunshine thanks to high pressure in control of the region, but it won’t last too long. Clouds will start to steam in this afternoon and thicken up tonight as the low pressure area that brought severe weather to parts of Texas and the Deep South yesterday moves into the Tennessee Valley. By Monday night, a secondary area of low pressure will develop near the Mid-Atlantic coast, passing south of New England on Tuesday. There’s not a lot of cold air in place, but with the storm passing far enough to the south, we should be cold enough for snow across most of the region, except for parts of Cape Cod and possibly southeastern Massachusetts, but even there, a change to snow is expected. The snow will be accompanied by gusty northeast winds, especially across the Cape and Islands where a High Wind Watch has been posted. With tides already at astronomically high levels, some coastal flooding is also expected, so a Coastal Flood Watch has been issued for much of eastern Massachusetts. The storm will be moving rather quickly, so snowfall totals won’t be outrageous. Snow should start around sunrise Tuesday, and end around sunset, but in between, it could snow rather heavily for a while late Tuesday morning and early afternoon. If you don’t have to be on the roads, we’d recommend you stay home. Complicating the snow forecast is that many of the models show a sharp cutoff to the northern edge of the snow, but don’t agree where that northern edge will be. Some have it in central New Hampshire, some in southern New Hampshire, some across northern Massachusetts. Wherever it does setup, you are going to see snowfall totals go from quite a bit to virtually nothing over a small area, perhaps even as little as 20 miles. Having said that, our snowfall forecast is, for lack of a better term, our “best guess” across central and southern New Hampshire right now.

So, how much snow can we expect?

Outer Cape/Islands: 1-3″
Upper Cape/South Coast: 3-5″
Central New Hampshire: (Concord): 3-6″
Southeastern Massachusetts: 4-8″
Southern New Hampshire (Nashua/Manchester to Portsmouth): 4-8″
Remainder of Eastern Massachusetts: 6-10″ with a few spots picking up 12″ or more

We’ll quickly clear out Tuesday night, then a cold front moves through with a few flurries Wednesday morning, followed by high pressure building in for Wednesday afternoon and Thursday with sunshine and colder weather. Clouds will start to move back in later Thursday ahead of a weak storm system moving out of the Great Lakes. That system will bring in some light snow or rain for Thursday night into early Friday. Skies will start to clear out Friday afternoon, but clouds quickly return ahead of yet another storm moving out of the Ohio Valley. This one will likely bring in some more light snow on Saturday. Another cold front follows on Sunday with some more clouds and possibly a few snow showers.

Monday: Morning sunshine, clouds filter in and thicken up during the afternoon. High 42-49.

Monday night: Becoming mostly cloudy, snow developing by daybreak, possibly mixed with some rain across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts. Low 26-33.

Tuesday: Windy with snow, possibly heavy at times, tapering off late in the day. High 30-37 early, temperatures start falling in the afternoon.

Tuesday night: Any lingering snow ends in the evening, then skies clear out, breezy. Low 17-24.

Wednesday: Sunshine and a few clouds, windy, colder, slight chance for a snow flurry early. High 28-35.

Thursday: Sunny in the morning, clouds move in during the afternoon, some light snow or rain possible overnight, breezy. High 31-38.

Friday: Any snow or rain ends early, becoming partly sunny and windy in the afternoon. High 33-40.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with some light snow possible. High 28-35.

Sunday: Partly sunny, breezy, chance for a few snow showers. High 31-38.