Storm HQ

Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on Sunday June 1 and runs through November 30, and indications are that it shouldn’t be as active as last year.

The 2024 season was an above normal season by the numbers, with 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. The season got off to a slower start than recent years, with only 3 storms through the beginning of August, and 5 through Labor Day, but 8 named storms formed in a 4 week span between September 9 and October 5. Hurricane Helene made the most headlines, hitting the Big Bend region of Florida area as a Category 4 hurricane on September 27, producing catastrophic wind damage and flooding in parts of the Carolinas. Hurricane Milton was the strongest storm of the season, reaching Category 5 intensity. The estimated minimum pressure in the storm of 895mb tied it with 2005’s Hurricane Rita for the 4th lowest pressure in the Atlantic Basin. Milton made landfall near Siesta Key, Florida on October 9 as a Category 3 hurricane. The other storms to make landfall in the US were Hurricane Beryl in central Texas on July 8, Hurricane Debby which hit the Florida Big Bend on August 5, and Hurricane Francine, which hit Louisiana on September 11. The 5 US hurricane landfalls is the most since 2020, when 6 hurricanes struck the United States. That year also featured 2 major hurricane landfalls, just like 2024. In 2021, a total of 8 tropical systems made landfall in the United States, but only 2 at hurricane strength. That includes 2 tropical storms that made landfall in New England that summer – Elsa and Henri. Both Elsa and Henri each made landfall near Westerly, Rhode Island about 6 weeks apart. This was just the 5th time since 1851 that two tropical systems made landfall in Southern New England or Long Island in the same year, and only the 2nd time (1961 being the other), that both storms were only tropical storm strength. (We’ll have more info on New England tropical systems a little later in this post).

Forecasts for the upcoming season are calling for a season that features near to above normal activity, though conditions are not nearly as favorable as they were at this time last year. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are considerably cooler, especially in the Main Development Region. In terms of ENSO, last year’s La Nina has faded and we are now in a neutral phase, which is not as favorable for storm development. NOAA issued their seasonal hurricane outlook on May 22, and it calls for a 60 percent chance for an above normal season, a 30 percent chance for a near normal season, and a 10 percent chance for a below normal season. Most of the other hurricane outlooks issued by various outlets are also expecting an above normal season, due to the signals mentioned above. An average season consists of 14.4 named storms, of which 7.2 become hurricanes and 3.2 become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale). NOAA’s forecast for this season calls for 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State, the first group to forecast how active a hurricane season would be, originally led by the late Dr. Bill Gray, will issue their updated forecast on June 11. Their initial forecast from April called for an above average season, with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. They also pegged the chance at a storm making landfall in the Massachusetts at 40% (33% is the average in any given year), and the odds of a hurricane making landfall in Massachusetts at 18% (14% is the average). Overall, 8 of the past 9 hurricane seasons have featured above normal activity across the Atlantic.

Despite the early start for the many of the past several years, the average date for the first named storm in the Atlantic is still June 20, and the average date for the first hurricane is August 11. Over 97% of all named storms in the Atlantic form between June 1 and November 30. Most early season storms tend to be on the weaker side. A hurricane hasn’t made landfall in the United States before July 1 since Hurricane Bonnie came ashore as a minimal hurricane near the Texas/Louisiana border on June 26, 1986.

The number of storms that form in any given season has no correlation on how many storms (if any) will impact the United States. In 2010, 19 named storms were observed in the Atlantic, 12 of them became hurricanes, and 5 were major hurricanes. Only one storm made landfall in the United States, and that was Bonnie, which was a minimal tropical storm at landfall. In 1990, there were a total 14 named storms, 8 of them hurricanes and 1 major hurricane. Not a single one of them made landfall in the United States. On the flip side, only 7 named storms formed in 1992, and the first one didn’t develop until August 16. That storm, however, was named Andrew, and it made landfall just south of Miami as a category 5 storm. It only takes one storm to ruin your entire year.

Here in New England, we should always pay attention when a storm is nearing the Bahamas, as those are the ones that have the potential to impact us, and we are extremely overdue for a hurricane to make landfall. Using the HURDAT database which has data back to 1851, here are some stats that show exactly how overdue we are:

• Since 1851, 39 storms of tropical storm strength of greater have made landfall in New England or Long Island, an average of one every 4.5 years. The longest we’ve ever gone without one is 11 years, between 1897 and 1908 and also between 1923 and 1934. In 2021, we had two tropical storms (Elsa and Henri) make landfall in the region, so it’s been 4 years, which means we are due for another.
• Since 1851, 32 strong tropical storms (maximum sustained winds of 60 mph or more) have made landfall in New England or Long Island, an average of one every 5.4 years. The longest we’ve ever gone without one is 19 years, between 1897 and 1916. In 2021, we had two strong tropical storms (Elsa and Henri) make landfall in the region.
• Since 1851, a hurricane has made landfall in New England or Long Island 18 times, an average of one every 9.7 years. The longest we’ve ever gone between hurricane landfalls is 38 years, between 1896 and 1934. It’s now been 34 years since Hurricane Bob, our 2nd longest drought on record.
• Since 1851, 8 hurricanes of Category 2 intensity or stronger have made landfall in New England or Long Island, an average of one every 21.8 years. The longest we’ve gone between hits by storms of that intensity is 69 years, between 1869 and 1938. We’re at 34 years since Bob, the last one to do so.
• Since 1851, New England/Long Island has had 3 Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) make landfall – an unnamed storm in October of 1869 that grazed the eastern tip of Long Island before making landfall just west of Charlestown, RI; the infamous 1938 Long Island Express that made landfall near Brookhaven, NY and then again near New Haven, CT; and Hurricane Carol in 1954 which crossed East Hampton, NY and then made a 2nd landfall near Groton, CT. That’s an average of 1 every 58 years, and we’re now at 71 years since Carol, making this the longest stretch on record. There are also 3 documented storms from before 1851 – The Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635, the 1815 New England Hurricane, and the Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane of 1821. That’s it. That changes the numbers to 6 in 390 years, or one every 65 years, with a longest drought of 180 years.

We all saw what Sandy did back in 2012, and that was a minimal hurricane that eventually made landfall in southern New Jersey (technically as an extratropical storm), though there were other factors that led to the amount of damage it caused. When (not if) the next big storm comes up the coast, much of this region will not be prepared for the storm or its aftermath. A storm doesn’t need to make a direct hit on New England to have significant impacts. In addition to Sandy, the so-called “Perfect Storm” in 1991 was an offshore system that became a hurricane and battered the coastline with strong winds and significant coastal impacts for a few days around Halloween. In 1955, Hurricane Connie and Tropical Storm Diane both made landfall in North Carolina 5 days apart. Connie tracked into the eastern Great Lakes, but still produced some heavy rain in New England, especially western New England. A few days later, Diane passed just south of New England on its way out to sea, but produced widespread rainfall totals of 5-15 inches across most of southern New England, with 19.75″ in Westfield, Massachusetts. The combination of these back-to-back storms resulted in some of the worst flooding this region has ever seen.

The Atlantic is quiet right now, but even if something were to form off the East Coast in the next few weeks and head this way, the waters off of New England are still much too cold to sustain a tropical system, so we’d see something more like a typical nor’easter. Only two tropical storms have ever made landfall in the Northeast before the end of June. The first was an unnamed minimal tropical storm that crossed extreme eastern Long Island and went into southeastern Connecticut on May 30, 1908. The other was Tropical Storm Agnes, which made landfall near New York City on June 22, 1972, then caused devastating flooding across parts of the Mid-Atlantic states. In terms of hurricanes, the earliest one to ever make landfall up this way was Hurricane Belle, which slammed into Long Island as a minimal hurricane with 75 mph winds on August 9, 1976. We did have Hurricane Arthur pass just offshore of Nantucket on July 4, 2014. While it did not make landfall, it made for a rather wet and cool holiday, especially across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts. Statistically, the most likely time for a hurricane to hit New England is between the middle of August and late September. Of the 18 hurricanes that made landfall in New England or Long Island since 1851, 15 of them have done so between August 19 and September 27.

As always, you should get your weather information from a trusted source (hopefully you trust us), especially when dealing with tropical systems. Much like with snowstorms in the winter, there will be plenty of hype and exaggeration on Twitter and Facebook, as well as people posting doom and gloom maps showing how a thunderstorm near the coast of Africa will develop into a Category 5 storm and head right for the East Coast in the next 2 weeks. We’re not among that group, we give you facts and our best forecasts, without any hype. If there’s reason to worry, we’ll let you know with plenty of advance warning. It’s always best to prepare ahead of the season. Chances are, you won’t have anything to worry about, but in case you do, it’s always good to be prepared.