Month: November 2024

Thanksgiving Weekend Outlook: November 28 – December 2, 2024

wxmanscottkLeave a comment

Turkey Day is looking wet, but after that things will turn colder around here.

Below normal temperatures are expected through the holiday weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.

Low pressure will move out of the Tennessee Valley tonight and head towards Southern New England, passing near or just south of the South Coast on Thanksgiving Day. For most of us, we’ll see rain developing around daybreak, and ending in the evening, but across the hills from Worcester County into the Monadnocks of southwestern New Hampshire, some snow is likely, with a few inches possible. Across the rest of southern New Hampshire, we may see the rain start as snow in the morning, but it should quickly change to rain, with little to no accumulation. Farther north, especially north of Concord, NH, a few inches may accumulate, before a change to rain occurs. The system starts to pull away Thursday evening, with the rain ending before midnight, though we could see some flakes mix in as the rain winds down.

Any accumulating snow should stay well north and west of Boston on Thursday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

As the storm moves into Atlantic Canada, we’ll clear out for Friday with breezy and colder conditions. A few stray rain or snow showers are possible, especially across Cape Cod where the winds blowing over the still relatively mild water may generate some ocean-effect showers. Another weak disturbance moves through Friday night with just a few flurries, then even colder air settles in for the weekend and Monday. With an upper-level low over the Northeast and disturbances rotating around it, we could see a few widely scattered flurries or snow showers each day.

Wind chills will be in the teens Sunday morning. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Wednesday night: Becoming cloudy, rain may develop towards daybreak, mixed with snow well north and west of Boston. Low 29-36, temperatures may start to rise after midnight.

Thursday: Periods of rain, mixed with snow in the morning, especially from the hills of Worcester County into southern New Hampshire, becoming breezy along the coast. High 39-46 north and west of I-95 47-54 south and east of I-95.

Thursday night: Rain ending before midnight, possibly mixed with some wet snow, some clearing late at night, breezy along the coast during the evening. Low 30-37.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 40-47.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy, chance for a few rain or snow showers across Cape Cod. Low 25-32.

Saturday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, slight chance for a few flurries, especially across the Outer Cape, breezy, colder. High 37-44.

Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Low 22-29.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few flurries, breezy, chilly. High 35-42.

Sunday night: Clear skies. Low 20-27.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 34-41.

Weekly Outlook: November 24 – December 1, 2024

wxmanscottkLeave a comment

We’ll get right to the point – despite the hype over the past several days, the vast majority of the region will NOT be having a White Thanksgiving. However, we are expecting more much-needed rainfall this week.

Another 1/4-1/2 inch of much-needed rain is expected on Tuesday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

We start the week off with high pressure in control, providing us with sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures. Clouds start to move in tonight as low pressure moves from the Great Lakes towards Northern New England. This system will bring us some rain Tuesday morning and afternoon, but we’re a little concerned about Tuesday morning in particular. Temperatures will cool off pretty quickly Monday evening before the clouds arrive, and by the time the rain moves in near or just after daybreak, temperatures may be near freezing across parts of southern New Hampshire. The ground remains fairly warm, but if it’s near 32 and starts to rain, there could be a little icing, especially on elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses. Temperatures should quickly rise above 32 after daybreak, but if you’re going to be out in southern New Hampshire around daybreak Tuesday, use a little extra caution, especially if the rain moves in a little earlier than currently expected. Rain ends Tuesday afternoon and we clear out at night as high pressure builds in Tuesday night. Wednesday starts off with sunshine, but clouds stream right back in during the afternoon as low pressure begins to move out of the Tennessee Valley.

The models agree the Thanksgiving will be stormy, but don’t agree on the details. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

The latest indications are that this low pressure system will pass south of New England or possibly across Cape Cod during Thanksgiving and into Friday morning. The result will likely be a rainy Turkey Day, so keep this in mind if you are traveling for the holiday. Of course, this is far from locked in, as there is still some uncertainty in the models. Some show the storm passing far enough south that it misses the region entirely. Some bring in a period of heavier rain, and some have enough cold air in place at the start that the rain may start as snow across the interior on Thanksgiving Day, before quickly changing to rain. None of the models show a major snowstorm around here any more, despite a couple of runs of the models doing so last week. One or two show some decent accumulations for ski country, but even that is far from certain at this point. We’ll have much more detail in our Weekend Outlook which will be published on Wednesday this week with the holiday on Thursday. The storm pulls away Friday morning, and there’s the possibility that the rain could change over to snow before ending across areas north and west of Boston, but again, this is far from certain at this point. Blustery and colder weather moves in behind that storm for the weekend, with a few flurries possible at times.

Bundle up if you’ll be out early Sunday morning, with wind chills in the teens. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Mostly sunny, clouds start to filter in towards evening, breezy. High 44-51.

Monday night: Becoming mostly cloudy, showers developing late at night, possibly as some freezing rain across southern New Hampshire. Low 30-37.

Tuesday: Rain likely, ending during the afternoon, some clearing late in the day. High 42-49 north of the Mass Pike, 50-57 south of the Pike.

Tuesday night: Becoming clear. Low 31-38.

Wednesday: Breezy with sunshine during the morning, then clouds start to move back in during the afternoon. High 43-50.

Thanksgiving Day: Cloudy with rain developing, possibly starting as a little wet snow across the interior. High 42-49 north and west of I-95, 50-57 south and east of I-95.

Friday: Showers ending in the morning, possibly changing to snow before ending across the interior, some clearing may develop in the afternoon. High 41-48.

Saturday: Partly sunny, breezy, colder, chance for a few flurries. High 37-44.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, chilly, chance for a few flurries. High 35-42.

Weekend Outlook: November 22-25, 2024

wxmanscottkLeave a comment

Much-needed rain has finally made its way to the region, and more is coming.

Much of the region could pick up an inch or more of rain by the end of the weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

After weeks without significant rainfall, we finally had some move in today as low pressure moved south of New England. An upper-level low pressure system will move out of the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, pulling that system into New York and Pennsylvania tonight, which means the steady rain this evening will taper off to showers overnight. The upper low then moves in for Friday, and while there could be some sunny breaks in the morning, for the most part we’ll have plenty of clouds with a few showers around. With some cold air aloft, there could be a few snowflakes mixed in, especially across the higher terrain of central Massachusetts and southwestern New Hampshire. A disturbance rotating around that upper-level low will trigger a new storm system south and east of New England, bringing rain and gusty winds back in for late Friday into early Saturday, mainly across eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. If the precipitation shield can extend far enough west, the rain may change to snow across the hills of Worcester County and the Monadnocks of southern New Hampshire. That low pulls away on Saturday, but we’ll be slow to clear out, with a gusty northwest breeze keeping us on the cool side. High pressure builds in for Sunday with more sunshine, but there will still be some clouds around with the upper-level low nearby. Monday starts off with some sun, but then clouds start to move back in during the afternoon as another storm system heads this way from the Great Lakes. This will likely bring in more rain showers for Monday night and Tuesday.

Wind gusts of 30-40 mph are possible this weekend. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Rain tapers off to showers, ending overnight, some partial clearing possible late at night, breezy. Low 38-45.

Friday: Some sunshine in the morning, then clouds return with a few showers around, becoming a steadier rain late in the day across eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, possibly mixed with some wet snow across the higher terrain from central Massachusetts into southern New Hampshire. High 46-53.

Friday night: Periods of rain, mainly across eastern Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire, possibly mixed with some wet snow across the higher terrain from central Massachusetts into southern New Hampshire. Low 34-41.

Saturday: Cloudy and breezy with showers (or wet snow) ending in the morning, though there could be a few more showers around in the afternoon. High 43-50.

Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy. Low 35-42.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, windy. High 44-51.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 30-37.

Monday: Morning sun, clouds start to move back in during the afternoon. High 47-54.

Finally, since the hype train already left the station yesterday, we’ll address the possibility of a “White Thanksgiving”. Yes, a couple of models have occasionally shown the potential for a storm system next weekend. However, these models have been highly inconsistent at that range, and they vary widely on the track, strength, and timing of the potential system, and what, if any, impact it might have here. Anything from wind-swept rain to heavy snow, to a sunny but cool weekend is on tap. It’s just WAY too early to even speculate on what might happen a week from now. We’ll address it a little more in our Weekly Outlook early Monday, but even then, the details will probably still be a fuzzy. Bottom line: don’t worry about it, don’t go cancelling any Thanksgiving weekend plans, and stay tuned for further updates. If there is anything to worry about, we’ll let you know well in advance.

The models all have very different solutions for Thanksgiving Day. Images provided by Pivotal Weather,

Weekly Outlook: November 18-24, 2024

wxmanscottkLeave a comment

It looks like we may finally get some rain this week.

Rainfall totals over the past 6 months are only 1/2 to 3/4 of normal across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We start the week off with some clouds this morning as a weak system moves through, but as has been the case for a while now, it will be accompanied by little, if any, rainfall. We’ll clear out this afternoon with breezy conditions, increasing the fire danger once again. Tuesday and Wednesday look dry and mild with high pressure in control once again, so we’ll remain in a high fire danger situation. Things begin to change for the second half of the week though.

Another very mild day is expected across the region today. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

A low pressure system that will bring a significant storm system to the nation’s mid-section to start the week will head into central Canada while an upper-level low pressure system moves from the Plains into the Great Lakes, and by the end of the week into the Northeast. A disturbance rotating around that upper-low will trigger a new low pressure system at the surface by mid-week in the Ohio Valley, which should bring in some much-needed rain around here for Thursday. There is still a lot of uncertainty with this storm, as it may draw in some of the remnants of Sara, adding some additional juice to the system. However, the track the storm takes will determine if we just get some occasional showers and a brief period of steady rain, or some prolonged heavier rain. Recent history would suggest the former, but the latter can’t be ruled out yet. We’ll update you on this during the week if needed. By the end of the week, that upper-level low moves in, with some occasional showers and much cooler weather for Friday and likely Saturday as well. In fact, those showers may fall as snow showers across the higher terrain from Worcester County into the Monadnocks of southern New Hampshire, and we could see some snowflakes mixed in at the lower elevations as well. High pressure then builds back in for Sunday with drier and cool conditions.

The models all have different ideas on where the storm system will be on Thursday and how much rain it will bring in. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Morning clouds and a slight chance for a sprinkle, then becoming partly to mostly sunny, a little breezy in the afternoon, quite mild. High 55-62.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 36-43.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy. High 51-58.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 32-39.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, clouds start to filter in during the afternoon. High 50-57.

Thursday: Cloudy and breezy with showers developing, possibly some steadier rain. High 47-54.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with more showers around, possibly mixed with some wet snow, especially across the higher terrain. High 44-51.

Saturday: More clouds than sunshine, breezy, chance for a few more showers. High 44-51.

Sunday: Partly sunny, breezy. High 45-52.

Weekend Outlook: November 15-18, 2024

wxmanscottkLeave a comment

After a few chilly days, a warmup is in store for the weekend.

Temperatures will be above normal again this weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

High pressure will keep us dry for the next few days, but that doesn’t mean it’s a simple forecast. A weak system passing well to our south and west tonight will spread some high clouds in, which will be just enough to keep us from getting as cold as last night. As that system pulls away on Friday, a bigger storm moving into Atlantic Canada will start to drift westward, sending more clouds our way during the afternoon, and these will be a little thicker, especially along the coast. However, we’ll also start to warm up as the airmass begins to moderate. The clouds start to move out on Saturday as upper-level high pressure builds in, with developing sunshine and milder temperatures. On Sunday, we flip things around with sunshine in the morning, then clouds start to move back in during the afternoon as a weak disturbance approaches from the west. It may produce a few widely scattered showers as it moves through on Monday, but this is far from the drought-buster that we desperately need.

The drought continues to worsen across the region. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

Thursday night: Partly cloudy. Low 24-31, a little milder across Cape Cod.

Friday: Becoming sunny in the morning, clouds start to move back in by late in the day. High 49-56.

Friday night: Partly cloudy. Low 35-42.

Saturday: Morning clouds, especially near the coast, then becoming sunny again, breezy. High 54-61.

Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 36-43.

Sunday: Sunny through the morning, clouds start to move back in during the afternoon. High 54-61.

Sunday night: Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 36-43.

Monday: Morning clouds, possibly a shower, some afternoon clearing. High 56-63.

Weekly Outlook: November 11-17, 2024

wxmanscottkLeave a comment

Although today will be mild, much of this week will be cooler than we have been for a while.

Today will be the warmest day of the week by a large margin. Image provided by WeatherBell.

A warm front moved through overnight, setting us up for a mild day today, with some spots possibly making a run at 70 degrees. Any lingering showers will end this morning as a cold front moves through, with rapid clearing behind the front this afternoon. However, the airmass behind the front isn’t that cold, which is one reason why we’ll be some warm today. A second cold front moves through late tonight or early Tuesday with little moisture accompanying it. Behind it, gusty northwest winds will usher some cooler air in during the day. As high pressure moves right overhead on Wednesday we’ll have sunshine but temperatures will be quite cool, even below normal for mid-November. That high pressure area will settle into eastern Canada for the end of the week, keeping us dry and cool. A weak low pressure system moving out of the Great Lakes will spread some clouds in on Thursday, but it looks like that system will slide off to our south, so we’re not expecting any rainfall from it.

Temperatures will be a little below normal for much of this week. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.

The end of the week and the weekend becomes a little more complicated, but the end result is that we should remain dry and seasonably cool. We’ll have an ocean storm moving into Atlantic Canada that is going to try and back in from the east, and a big high pressure centered to our west. The high should win out, keeping us dry and seasonably cool, but there may be clouds and a few showers at times, and possibly some gusty winds, especially near the coast, thanks to the ocean storm. We’ll keep a close eye on how this actually evolves later this week, and will update things in our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

The weekend forecast is a battle between low pressure to our east and high pressure to our west. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Showers ending early, then skies become mostly sunny in the afternoon, breezy. High 61-68.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy, becoming breezy again late at night. Low 40-47.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy, cooler. High 48-55.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy across Cape Cod and the Islands, clear elsewhere. Low 25-32, a little milder across Cape Cod and the Islands.

Wednesday: Plenty of sunshine with a few clouds across Cape Cod and the Islands, chilly. High 41-48.

Thursday: Intervals of clouds and sun. High 41-48.

Friday: Partly sunny, clouds may become a little more prevalent late in the day with just a slight chance for a few showers, especially near the coast. High 46-53.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 49-56.

Sunday: Partly sunny. High 52-59.

Weekend Outlook: November 8-11, 2024

wxmanscottkLeave a comment

Unseasonably warm weather is on the way out, but could there be some much-needed rain on the way?

Temperatures will be a little below normal around here on Saturday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

A cold front crossed the region earlier, bringing an end to the record warmth we had yesterday, but we’re still enjoying another mild day today with high pressure building in. Tomorrow looks to be another mild day, but another cold front is on its way. This one moves through late in the day with just some clouds and little to no rainfall, but even cooler air settles in behind this front. High pressure builds in for Saturday with temperatures that are closer to where we should be in early November, maybe even a little below normal, despite lots of sunshine. Clouds come streaming back in on Sunday as low pressure heads into the Great Lakes, sending a warm front our way. This front may produce some showers Sunday evening and night as it moves through. We’re not expecting a lot of rainfall with these showers, but as the drought continues to worsen and fire danger remains high, we need every drop we can get. Behind the front, milder air moves in for Monday, but it will be short-lived as the cold front moves through in the afternoon, with skies starting to clear out behind it by late in the day.

It’s not a drought-buster, but the models all agree on a little rain around here Sunday night. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Clear skies. Low 38-45.

Friday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds, breezy. High 57-64.

Friday night: Evening clouds, then becoming clear, breezy. Low 33-40.

Saturday: Plenty of sunshine, breezy, and cooler. High 46-53.

Saturday night: Clear skies, some clouds may start to filter in toward daybreak. Low 27-34.

Sunday: Increasing and thickening clouds, showers may develop may evening. High 52-59.

Sunday night: Cloudy with showers likely. Low 43-50 during the evening, temperatures may rise a little overnight.

Monday: Showers end early, some clearing in the afternoon. High 58-65.

Weekly Outlook: November 4-10, 2024

wxmanscottkLeave a comment

Little rainfall is expected this week, which means drought conditions will continue to worsen across the region.

Rainfall has been above normal across parts of Rhode Island over the past 6 months, but below to well below normal for the rest of the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

High pressure slides offshore today and a warm front heads toward the region. Clouds will increase and thicken up during the day ahead of the front, but only a few widely scattered showers will accompany the front tonight. Temperatures will rise tonight behind the front, with a couple of unseasonably warm days likely once again for Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures topping 70 in many areas , especially on Wednesday. A cold front will cross the region Wednesday night, accompanied by little to no rainfall once again. High pressure builds in for Thursday and Friday with cooler conditions, though temperatures will remain above normal for early November. Another cold front moves through Friday night with little fanfare, but even cooler weather follows for the weekend as high pressure builds back in. Clouds will start to move back in by late Sunday ahead of yet another system that will move in for the start of next week.

Record highs are possible across the Northeast on Wednesday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Sunshine filtered through high clouds, but they’ll thicken up late in the day. High 49-56.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy, slight chance for a shower. Low 43-50 in the evening, temperatures start to rise overnight.

Tuesday: Morning clouds, becoming partly sunny, breezy, and warmer. High 64-71.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy, breezy. Low 55-62.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, slight chance for a shower at night. High 69-76, a little cooler across Cape Cod.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, not as warm. High 59-66.

Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy. High 56-63.

Saturday: Mostly sunny and cooler. High 50-57.

Sunday: Morning sunshine fades behind increasing afternoon clouds, showers possible at night. High 52-59.