There’s not much rain in the forecast, and that’s not good for the worsening drought.
Little rainfall is on the way to help with the drought. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.
Unseasonably warm weather continues across the region into Friday ahead of a strong cold front. We’ll see clouds start to move in tonight as the cold front gets closer, but it doesn’t have a lot of moisture to work with, so we’re only expecting a few widely scattered showers when the front moves through late Friday morning. We’ll quickly clear out behind the front in the afternoon, but the cooler air lags a bit behind the front, so we’ll have another warm day, with temperatures likely topping 70 in many areas once again. High pressure then builds in for the weekend with much cooler weather, with temperatures a little below normal for early November. Clouds will start to move back in Sunday night and Monday as another warm front heads our way. We’ll likely stay on the cool side during the day, with any showers likely holding off until evening or more likely overnight, but again, we’re not expecting drought-busting rain, just some widely scattered showers.
Don’t forget – Daylight Saving Time ends at 2am Sunday, so you’ll get an extra hour of sleep when we turn the clocks back one hour.
Clocks go back 1 hour at 2am on Sunday. Image provided by the Associated Press.
Thursday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy, slight chance for a few showers toward daybreak, winds start to pick up late at night. Low 57-64.
Friday: Cloudy and breezy with a few widely scattered showers in the morning, skies quickly clear out after midday. High 71-78, a little cooler across Cape Cod.
Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy with diminishing winds. Low 40-47.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, much cooler. High 51-58.
Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 30-37.
Sunday: Sunshine with some afternoon clouds. High 48-55.
Sunday night: Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 30-37.
Monday: Plenty of clouds, a few showers possible toward evening. High 47-54.
Temperatures will be riding a rollercoaster this week, but we’re still not expecting much rain.
It’s looking rather chilly across the region tonight. Image provided by WeatherBell.
The week starts off with a rather chilly day as high pressure settles in. Despite sunshine, temperatures will only get into the 50s for most spots, and some may not even get that warm. As the high moves overhead tonight, we’ll have clear skies and light winds – a perfect recipe for radiational cooling. Some high clouds may start to move in overnight, which would slow the temperature fall. Temperatures should drop below freezing for much of the region, except possibly the urban areas and some spots across Cape Cod. If you’ve still got a few plants outside, it’s time to bring them in. The high slides off to the east on Tuesday, allowing temperatures to start to moderate a bit. Clouds move in late in the day ahead of a warm front. That warm front may bring in a few showers Tuesday night, but they shouldn’t be that widespread or heavy. Behind it, much milder weather returns for Wednesday and Thursday. Despite some clouds, temperatures will likely top 70 again in many locations on Halloween, and possibly even 80, which will make for some rather nice trick-or-treating weather Thursday evening, and possibly set a few records as well. Another cold front will move in early Friday, again with only a few showers accompanying it. Temperatures look like they’ll be quite mild in the morning, but cooler air moves in behind it during the afternoon. If the front comes in even later than we’re currently thinking, then we could see many places get well into the 70s again on Friday. High pressure returns for next weekend with much cooler air once again.
The models don’t agree on the timing of Friday’s cold front, which has a significant impact on the temperature forecast. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Don’t forget – Daylight Saving Time ends Sunday at 2am, when the clocks go back one hour. So, the good news is that you get an extra hour of sleep Saturday night. The bad news? Sunset next Sunday is at 4:34pm.
Clocks go back one hour at 2am on Sunday. Image provided by the Associated Press.
Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 48-55.
Monday night: Clear through the evening, some high clouds may start to drift in after midnight. Low 27-34, a little milder across the Outer Cape and in urban areas.
Tuesday: Increasing and thickening clouds. High 52-59.
Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for some widely scattered showers. Low 46-53 during the evening, temperatures may start to rise a bit after midnight.
Wednesday: Becoming partly sunny, breezy, and warmer. High 67-74, a little cooler across Cape Cod.
Thursday: Partly sunny, breezy, and very warm. High 72-79, a little cooler across Cape Cod.
Friday: Some morning showers, some clearing in the afternoon, breezy. High 63-70.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, cooler. High 49-56.
Sunday: Sunny in the morning, clouds start to move back in during the afternoon. High 53-60.
As we head into the final weekend of October, temperatures will return to near to below normal.
Average high temperatures for late October are in the upper 50s. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
A cold front continues to push offshore this evening and high pressure builds in with clearing skies and diminishing winds resulting in a cooler night than the past few. Friday should feature a good amount of sunshine and temperatures that are closer to where we should be in late October, but another cold front will be approaching from the west. Clouds will start to move in late in the day ahead of the front, then it should move through on Saturday morning. As has been the case for a while now, this front will not have much moisture to work with, so aside from a few widely scattered showers, most places will remain dry when the front moves through. We’ll clear out during the day on Saturday with breezy conditions as even cooler air settles into the region. High pressure builds in for both Sunday and Monday with sunshine returning, but temperatures that will be below normal, with most places likely not reaching 60 either day, and widespread frost and freezing temperatures are expected Sunday night, except for urban locations and parts of Cape Cod and the Islands.
Drought conditions continue to expand across the Northeast. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.
Thursday night: Becoming clear with diminishing winds. Low 38-45, a little milder across Cape Cod.
Friday: Plenty of sunshine, clouds start to filter in late in the day. High 55-62.
Friday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy, just a slight chance for a shower. Low 41-48.
Saturday: Morning clouds, then skies clear out in the afternoon, breezy. High 59-66.
Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 34-41, a little milder across Cape Cod.
Sunday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds, breezy, and cooler. High 49-56.
Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy and chilly. Low 28-35, a little milder across Cape Cod.
Our stretch of dry and warm weather will continue for a few more days, but changes are coming later this week.
Another fantastic mid-Autumn day is expected today. Image provided by WeatherBell.
We start the week off with high pressure still in control, giving us dry and unseasonably warm conditions through Wednesday. High temperatures will likely top 70 in many areas each of the next 3 days, and a few places could even reach 80 this afternoon, though a backdoor cold front may bring some cooler weather into coastal areas on Tuesday. However, all good things must come to an end, and a stronger cold front will bring an end to the warm weather on Thursday. Breezy and cooler weather is likely with the frontal passage early in the day, but as has been the case for a while now, little rainfall will accompany it. After a couple of cool and dry days, another cold front will approach on Saturday. Once again, we’re not expecting drought-busting rainfall with this front, just a few widely scattered showers. Behind that front even cooler weather settles in for the end of the weekend.
Precipitation has been below normal over the past 6 months and this week won’t help that. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.
Monday: Sunshine with just a few afternoon clouds. High 72-79, a little cooler across Cape Cod.
Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 49-56.
Tuesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 69-76, a littler cooler along the coast.
Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 49-56.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 69-76, a little cooler across Cape Cod.
Thursday: Some morning clouds, then becoming mostly sunny, breezy, and much cooler. High 56-63.
Friday: Mostly sunny. High 52-59.
Saturday: Partly sunny, chance for a few widely-scattered showers. High 56-63.
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and cool. High 50-57.
Temperatures could get well into the 70s on Monday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
For the most part, we’ve got a rather simple forecast for the next several days. An area of low pressure well south of New England will keep clouds in place across southeastern Massachusetts into Friday with some gusty northeast winds at times. Otherwise, high pressure will slide across the region and off to the east over the next several days, resulting in sunny days and clear night. Temperatures will warm back up to above normal levels over the weekend, with many places likely reaching or exceeding 70 as winds become more south to southwesterly. This pattern will likely continue into a good portion of next week as well.
Some models have no rain at all here through next weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Thursday night: Slow clearing across Southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod, clear skies elsewhere, breezy along the coast and across Cape Cod. Low 34-41, a little milder near the coast and urban areas.
Friday: Plenty of sunshine, a few clouds across Cape Cod, winds gradually subside. High 56-63, coolest along the coast.
Friday night: Clear skies. Low 36-43.
Saturday: Lots of sunshine. High 63-70, coolest across Cape Cod.
Saturday night: Clear. Low 38-45.
Sunday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 66-73, coolest across Cape Cod.
Sunday night: Clear skies. Low 45-52.
Monday: More sunshine. High 70-77, coolest across Cape Cod.
This week will be the coolest week we’ve had around here in the past six months.
Temperatures will be below normal for much of the upcoming week. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
We’re starting the week off on a damp note with a low pressure system crossing the region, generating a few more showers, mainly during the morning hours today. We’ll start to clear out behind a cold front this afternoon, with gusty northwest winds developing. We may turn mild this afternoon, with parts of the region topping 60, especially south of Boston, but much cooler air will settle in behind the front tonight. High pressure builds in with dry and cool conditions for Tuesday into Thursday, but with an upper-level low moving across the Northeast, it will remain breezy, with a few clouds around at times. In addition, the onshore flow around the high pressure area may bring a few clouds and even a shower or two into coastal areas. To our north, this upper-level low will generate some snow showers across parts of Northern New England, especially in the mountains, but that’s not a concern around here. As the high slides off to the east, temperatures should start to moderate at the end of the week. Another frontal system may move in for the end of the weekend, but for now, it doesn’t look like it will have much moisture to work with.
It’s getting toward that time of year. Some snow is likely in the mountains this week. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Monday: Cloudy and becoming breezy with showers ending by early afternoon, skies start to clear out late in the day. High 52-59 north of the Mass Pike, 60-67 south of the Pike.
Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 34-41.
Tuesday: Sunshine with some afternoon clouds, breezy, and cooler, slight chance for an afternoon shower near the coast. High 49-56.
Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 34-41.
Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a shower along the coast. High 48-55.
Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny, another shower possible near the coastline. High 52-59.
Hurricane Milton remains a Category 4 storm as it begins to close in on the Florida Gulf Coast.
Hurricane Milton is heading toward western Florida. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
After peaking as a Category 5 hurricane twice over the past few days, Hurricane Milton is starting to weaken, and will continue to do so right up until landfall along the Florida Gulf Coast tonight. As of 3pm EDT Milton still had maximum sustained winds near 130 mph, and was centered about 110 miles west of Ft. Myers, Florida, moving toward the northeast at 16 mph. A variety of watches and warnings are in effect for most of Florida as well as parts of the Bahamas and Southeast coastline.
Milton’s eye shows up on the radar from Tampa. Loop provided by the College of DuPage.
At this point, the forecast for Milton is fairly straightforward. Upper-level conditions are becoming increasingly hostile, so Milton should continue to weaken, but will likely still be a Category 3 or Category 2 hurricane at landfall around or just after midnight tonight. It should turn a bit more toward the east-northeast this evening, with landfall likely south of Tampa Bay, probably somewhere in the vicinity of Sarasota. Once inland, it will move east-northeastward across Florida while continuing to weaken, likely emerging in the Atlantic Thursday morning as a Category 1 hurricane. It should then continue out into the open Atlantic. This track should keep the strongest winds south of Interstate 4, sparing the Tampa/Orlando/Daytona Beach areas from the worst of the conditions.
Milton should cross central Florida tonight then move into the Atlantic. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Milton has already begun to transition into an extratropical system, and by the time it moves into the Atlantic Thursday morning, that transition should be nearly complete. Unfortunately, this will result in Milton becoming and even larger storm, and the strong winds, albeit weaker than they are now, spread out over a much larger area. While the winds will result in widespread damage, especially near landfall, the strongest winds should stay south of Tampa, Orlando, and Daytona Beach. These areas may see gusts to hurricane strength, especially in Tampa, but wind will not be the biggest concern here.
The strongest winds are expected to stay just south of the Interstate-4 corridor. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Heavy rain has been falling across parts of Florida, especially central Florida for a few days now, and Milton will only worsen that. Much of the region has received 1-4 inches of rain already this week, and along and north of the track, additional rainfall totals of 10-15 inches or more are likely by Thursday morning, resulting in widespread significant flooding. This does include the metro areas of Tampa, Orlando, and Daytona.
Torrential rainfall is expected along and north of Milton’s track. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
The biggest concern is along the Florida Gulf Coast, where a large storm surge is expected near and south of where the center makes landfall. Milton has been piling up the water in the Gulf for a couple of days now, and even though it has begun weakening, the seas will not subside much, if at all, before landfall. A storm surge if 10-14 feet is expected from the mouth of Tampa Bay southward to the Charlotte Harbor area. With landfall expected near or just before high tide, it will exacerbate the storm surge a bit more. Much of the remainder of the Florida Gulf Coast can still expect a significant storm surge, especially southward, including the Naples and Fort Myers areas, but with the storm passing south of Tampa Bay, we were spared the worst-case scenario of a storm passing just to the north, sending a 15-foot storm surge right up the Bay and into downtown Tampa. Storm surge will also be a concern, but to a lesser degree along the Atlantic coast, mainly across central and northeastern Florida from Melbourne to Jacksonville, where a 3-5 foot storm surge is still expected.
Storm Surge is the biggest concern along the Florida Gulf Coast. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
If that wasn’t enough, Milton will also produce numerous tornadoes across parts of central and southern Florida today and tonight. There have already been more than half a dozen reports of tornadoes across parts of the area, and a Tornado Watch remains in effect through this evening for much of central and southern Florida. It will almost certainly be extended through the night.
Tornadoes are likely across central and southern Florida ahead of Milton. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.
Hurricane Milton peaked as a Category 5 storm on Monday with a central pressure of 897mb. The lower the pressure the stronger the storm. This made it the 5th strongest storm on record in the Atlantic Basin, and one of just 7 storms to have a central pressure of 900mb or lower. The last storm to do so was Hurricane Wilma in October of 2005. Wilma’s pressure bottomed out at 882mb, which is the lowest sea-level pressure recorded in the Atlantic, and second lowest in the western hemisphere (Hurricane Patricia in the Eastern Pacific had a pressure of 872mb in 2015).
Storm
Pressure
Year
Wilma
882mb
2005
Gilbert
888mb
1988
Labor Day
892mb
1935
Rita
895mb
2005
Milton
897mb
2024
Strongest hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin by pressure.
Milton isn’t the only active storm right now. We also have Hurricane Leslie, centered about 985 miles east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving toward the northwest at 10 mph. Leslie weakened to a tropical storm on Tuesday, but has regained hurricane strength, with maximum sustained winds near 85 mph. Leslie may strengthen a little more tonight and Wednesday before a weakening trend commences. Leslie should turn more toward the north and northeast, remaining over open water while steadily weakening over the next few days, before becoming extratropical this weekend.
Forecast track for Hurricane Leslie. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
We’re also keeping an eye on an area of low pressure a few hundred miles west-southwest of Bermuda. It’s not tropical in origin, but it does have a small window over the next day or so where it could acquire some tropical characteristics, before upper-level conditions become unfavorable once again. Hurricane Season doesn’t officially end until November 30, so chances are, there will be more storms forming over the coming weeks.
A good portion of the upcoming week will feature cool and dry weather. Meanwhile, all eyes are turning to Hurricane Milton in the Gulf of Mexico.
Temperatures will be below normal for the next several days across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.
A cold front will cross the region today with some showers likely. While we need the rain, as we’re starting to slip into a drought, this will not be nearly enough rain to alleviate it. The front moves offshore late today, then we’ll clear out and turn cooler for Tuesday. With clear skies and light winds Tuesday night, some patchy frost is possible in the normally colder locations, especially well north and west of Boston. Another front moves through on Wednesday with little fanfare, but it will bring even cooler weather in for Thursday, when many locations likely won’t reach 60 for a high temperature. High pressure then slides offshore, allowing temperatures to moderate a little on Friday, and even more on Saturday, when many places may top 70 again. Another system may bring in some cooler and unsettled conditions for late Sunday and Columbus Day.
Rainfall has been well below normal for a few months now, and we’re not going to get much help this week. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Meanwhile, the tropics remain active with three hurricanes, but one of them is a significant threat to land. As of 5am, Hurricane Milton was centered about 750 miles west-southwest of Tampa, Florida, moving toward the east-southeast at 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 100 mph. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for parts of the Yucatan Peninsula, and Hurricane Watches are in effect for much of western Florida. Milton is expected to continue to strengthen for the next day or so, likely reaching Category 4 intensity as it turns more toward the northeast. However, by later Tuesday, upper-level conditions will become more hostile, and Milton should start to weaken, and in fact, could weaken rather quickly. However, it will still likely make landfall along the Florida Gulf Coast late Wednesday or early Thursday, but exactly where landfall will happen is still a question mark, and a fairly significant one. The strongest winds and highest storm surge will be to the right of the center. Some models bring the storm in near or north of Tampa, others to the south. A track south of Tampa means offshore winds for Tampa Bay, and not only would the storm surge be a lot less, it could actually send much of the water out of the Bay. However, a track just to the north of Tampa sends all the surge into the Bay, which would be very bad for the Tampa area. No matter where it makes landfall, it will bring additional heavy rain to much of Florida, with strong winds well inland. Once it makes landfall, it should continue to steadily weaken, and become extratropical as it moves off the east coast of Florida and into the Atlantic.
Hurricane Milton continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Loop provided by NOAA.
Well out in the Atlantic, we have Hurricanes Kirk and Leslie. As of 5am, Kirk still had maximum sustained winds near 75 mph, and was centered about 765 miles west-northwest of the Azores, moving toward the northeast at 30 mph. Kirk is expected to become extratropical later today as it heads eastward, and will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of northwestern Europe later this week. Meanwhile, Hurricane Leslie is centered about 1065 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, heading northwestward at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 90 mph. Leslie is expected to continue northwestward over open water this week while slowly weakening.
The tropics remain active today. Image provided by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.
Monday: Cloudy with showers likely, ending late in the day. High 60-67.
Monday night: Clearing. Low 43-50.
Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 59-66.
Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 38-45.
Wednesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 58-65.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and cool. High 54-61.
Friday: Lots of sunshine. High 58-65.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and milder. High 66-73.
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, showers possible at night. High 61-68.
Columbus Day: Partly to mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance for showers. High 53-60.
Changes are on the way as we head through the weekend. Meanwhile, the tropics remain active.
Drought conditions are beginning to develop across our area. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.
High pressure remains in control into Friday with dry and mild conditions. A cold front will start to move our way on Friday, with clouds streaming in ahead of it in the afternoon. The front will produce a few showers late Friday night and early Saturday, then skies clear out in the afternoon behind the front. We’ll remain fairly mild behind the front on Saturday, but as high pressure slowly moves in, we’ll turn a little cooler on Sunday despite more sunshine. Clouds start to filter in later Sunday ahead of a stronger cold front. That front will bring in some rain late Sunday night and Monday, but its bigger impact will be even cooler weather moving in behind it for the middle part of next week.
Cooler than normal temperatures are expected across the region next week. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.
The Atlantic remains active with two named storms, though neither is expected to impact land over the next week or so. Hurricane Kirk is now a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 125 mph. It is centered about 1130 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving toward the northwest at 10 mph. Kirk may strengthen a bit more, likely reaching Category 4 strength, but it will turn more toward the north and then northeast, crossing the open waters of the North Atlantic. It should start to weaken over the weekend, and become extratropical early next week. It could impact parts of western Europe with strong winds and heavy rain toward the middle to latter part of next week. We also have Tropical Storm Leslie, which has maximum sustained winds near 45 mph. Leslie is centered about 540 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving toward the west at 5 mph. Forecasts call for Leslie to steadily strengthen, likely becoming a hurricane in the next day or two. Leslie could become a rather potent storm by early next week, but it should be turning more toward the northwest, and will likely not impact any land areas.
Both Kirk and Leslie should remain over open water for the next several days. Image provided by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy, areas of patchy fog may develop. Low 47-54.
Friday: Some morning sun, then clouds increase and thicken up in the afternoon. High 67-74.
Friday night: Mostly cloudy with some showers developing, mostly after midnight. Low 52-59.
Saturday: Showers end in the morning, skies clear out in the afternoon. High 67-74.
Saturday night: Clear skies, cooler. Low 44-51.
Sunday: Lots of sunshine, clouds start to move in by late in the day. High 62-69.
Storm HQ 