Month: September 2024

Weekly/Tropical Outlook: September 30 – October 6, 2024

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We’re flipping the calendar to October, but it will remain fairly mild around here this week and pretty active in the tropics.

Friday looks like the pick of the week with temperatures well into the 70s for much of the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The week starts off with high pressure in control, keeping us dry and seasonably cool, but sunshine will be limited. The combination of east to northeast winds off the Atlantic and high clouds streaming in from what’s left of Helene will result in gray skies for the most part, with a little fog developing each morning as well. A cold front moves in on Wednesday, but it will only be accompanied by a few showers, so much of the region may remain dry once again, but temperatures should turn milder with southwest winds ahead of the front. High pressure builds in behind the front with clearing and mild temperatures for Thursday and Friday. Another cold front will move early in the weekend with some more showers, then high pressure returns for the end of the weekend.

The tropics remain active to start the week. Images provided by the National Hurricane Center.

As for the tropics, we have three active systems right now, and another could be on the way. Tropical Storm Isaac was centered about 515 miles north-northwest of the Azores as of 5am Monday, moving toward the east-northeast at 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds were down to 65mph. Isaac should become extratropical later today while heading northeastward over the open waters of the North Atlantic. Tropical Depression Joyce is centered about 910 miles east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving toward the west at 2mph. Maximum sustained winds were down to 35 mph, and the storm is expected to turn northward and dissipate over open water in the next day or two. Tropical Depression 12 is centered about 690 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving toward the west at 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph. The system should quickly strengthen, becoming a tropical storm later today, and a hurricane in the next couple of days. It could become a rather potent storm later this week, but it should turn more toward the northwest, not impacting any land areas at all.

Tropical Depression 12 is getting better organized this morning. Loop provided by NOAA.

There are two other areas we’re keeping an eye on this week. The first is the western Caribbean, where there is a mass of disorganized showers and thunderstorms this morning, but forecast models show the potential for them to organize into a system over the next few days. Assuming it develops, it could move into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, but it’s far too early to speculate on where it may go beyond that, or how strong it might be, as there isn’t a system yet to track. The other area is a tropical wave that just moved off the west coast of Africa. There’s not much too it right now, but forecast models show the potential for it to develop as it moves westward across the Atlantic later this week.

The various members of the ECMWF Ensemble show the Atlantic remaining active over the next two weeks. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com.

Monday: Areas of morning fog, then intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 67-74.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with some patchy fog. Low 51-58.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy. High 62-69.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 49-56.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a shower. High 62-69.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 68-75.

Friday: Partly sunny, showers possible at night. High 71-78.

Saturday: Chance for morning showers, then becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 66-73.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 60-67.

Weekend/Tropical Outlook: September 27-30, 2024

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Once the rain ends, we’ve got some rather nice weather coming up for the weekend. Meanwhile, the tropics are getting active again with Major Hurricane Helene heading for the Florida Panhandle, Tropical Storm Isaac in the North Atlantic, and potentially another system this weekend.

Some much-needed rainfall is expected across the region tonight. Image provided by WeatherBell.

A cold front will cross the region tonight, taking the rain with it by morning as it moves offshore. High pressure will then build in, and remain in control through Monday, keeping us dry and mild, but don’t expect bright sunshine the entire time. We’ll have some slow clearing behind the front on Friday, especially near the South Coast and the Cape. After that, some high-level moisture from Hurricane Helene and its remnants (more on that in a minute) will stream up here. This will result in filtered sunshine for Saturday and likely part of Sunday too. We’ll also have northeast winds around the high pressure area to our north bringing in some clouds at times from the Atlantic. Monday will probably feature the most sunshine, but there will still be some clouds around.

The tropics are getting active again with both Hurricane Helene and Tropical Storm Isaac. Image provided by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.

Hurricane Helene continues to strength as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. As of 4pm EDT, Helene was centered about 145 miles west-southwest of Tampa, Florida, moving toward the north-northeast at 21 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 120 mph, making Helene at Category 3 Hurricane. Helene’s future is fairly simple at this point. It will continue north-northeastward, with a little more strengthening likely, then it will make landfall in the Florida Big Bend area tonight. This is a sparsely populated region of Florida, which is the only “good” news we have with this storm. A storm surge of 15-20 feet is likely near and to the right of where the center makes landfall. Helene is a very large storm, with tropical storm force winds up to 350 miles from the center of the storm. With this in mind, strong winds are likely well inland after landfall, likely into southern or central Georgia, with widespread wind damage expected.

Hurricane Helene is marching toward the Florida Big Bend. Loop provided by the College of DuPage.

The biggest threat will be heavy rain well inland. Much of the Southeast has already received 3-6 inches of rain in the past day or two from a frontal system, and Helene will add another 5-10 inches or more to that. While this region has been in a drought and needs rainfall, too much rainfall doesn’t help as much and creates widespread flooding. An upper-level low pressure system over the Mississippi Valley will capture the remains of Helene this weekend, slowing it down across the Tennessee Valley before it finally dissipates, bringing even more rain to this region as well.

Helene will produce heavy rain over a very large area over the next few days. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Helene isn’t the only show in town though. We also have Tropical Storm Isaac, centered about 820 miles east-northeast of Bermuda as of 11am EDT, moving toward the east at 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph. Isaac is expected to steadily strengthen, and could become a hurricane this weekend. It should continue eastward or east-northeastward over the open waters of the North Atlantic, becoming extratropical early next week, at which point it could be heading towards Europe.

Tropical Storm Isaac is gradually organizing in the North Atlantic. Loop provided by NOAA.

But wait, there’s more! Another area of low pressure in the central Atlantic, several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to get better organized this afternoon, and conditions are favorable for it to become a tropical depression later today or Friday. The system could become a tropical storm over the weekend, but should eventually turn more toward the north and head out into the open Atlantic without impacting any land areas for the next week or so.

The next system should head out to sea without impacting land. Loop provided by Tomer Burg.

Thursday night: Cloudy with rain gradually ending, some clearing late at night, mainly from the Merrimack Valley northward, some patchy fog may also develop. Low 54-61.

Friday: A few lingering showers early across Cape Cod and the South Coast, otherwise, skies become mostly sunny in the morning, then high clouds stream back in during the afternoon. High 69-76.

Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 51-58.

Saturday: Sunshine filtered through high clouds. High 66-73.

Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 50-57.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 64-71.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 49-56.

Monday: Partly sunny. High 66-73.

Weekly Outlook: September 23-29, 2024

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Sunday was the first day of fall, and we’ll have some fall weather for most of the upcoming week.

Temperatures will be a little cooler than normal over the next several days. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

The low pressure system that brought all the rain and cool weather to the region over the weekend has drifted off to the south, and high pressure has built in from the north, which will bring us some drier weather for the next few days. However, the flow in between the two systems will result in northeast winds, keeping us cool, while also keeping some clouds around. By Wednesday, we’ll see a frontal system start to approach from the west, bringing more clouds in. It looks like most of the rain should hold off until night time, so Wednesday should be another dry day. That system will be a slow mover though, so another wet day is likely on Thursday. High pressure builds in for Friday and the weekend with drier air, but it’s not as simple as that may sound.

The models are in good agreement that we should get some beneficial rainfall Wednesday night and Thursday. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

A tropical system is likely to develop in the Gulf of Mexico over the next day or two, and forecast models show it becoming a formidable system before landfall somewhere between New Orleans and Tampa later this week. Once inland, it will rapidly weaken, but the moisture from it will stream northward. Some models have the high pressure area block that moisture from getting up here, while other models have it get close, possibly to the South Coast, before the high blocks any farther progress northward. So, for now, our forecast is for dry weather next weekend, but that could change by the time we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

Most of the Ensemble members are in good agreement on a track toward the Florida Panhandle later this week with a developing tropical system. Loop provided by Tomer Burg.

Monday: More clouds than sunshine, breezy near the coast. High 60-67.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 48-55.

Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sun, breezy near the coast. High 61-68.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 50-57.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds, slight chance for a shower during the day, more likely at night. High 62-69.

Thursday: Cloudy with showers likely, ending late in the day. High 64-71.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 67-74.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 65-72.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 67-74.

Weekend Outlook: September 20-23, 2024

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Astronomical summer ends this weekend and so does our extended stretch of dry and warm weather.

Much cooler weather is expected for the weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

In the big picture, the forecast for the next few days is fairly simple, but the details aren’t so simple. An area of low pressure will meander around south of New England for the next few days while high pressure remains in place to the north. In between the two, we’ll have increasing northeasterly winds, bringing cooler air into the region. The big question is in regards to the shield of rain around the low pressure system, and how far inland it penetrates. The computer models all have varying ideas on this, so they don’t provide a lot of help in this case, so we’re relying on past experience and gut feeling for the most part. The best chance for rain will obviously be closer to the system itself, which means Cape Cod, the Islands, and likely the South Coast and parts of southeastern Massachusetts. Farther north and west, chances decrease fairly rapidly, as dry air from the high pressure system will keep most of the moisture from reaching the ground. In fact, there’s a pretty good chance that it remains dry, especially once you get north and west of Interstate 495, and possibly Interstate 95. For the areas where we do expect rain, it will rain off and on at times from now into part of Saturday. None of the days will be a washout, and there will be extended periods of dry weather, especially as you head farther inland, but there will be some episodes of steadier and potentially heavier rain, especially on Cape Cod.

The models don’t agree on how far inland the rain will penetrate. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

The system should start to pull away later Saturday, with gradual clearing on Sunday, which is the first day of Autumn. The Autumnal Equinox occurs at 8:43am Sunday, officially ending summer. While we should see some sunshine developing, temperatures will stay on the cool side, thanks to the northeast wind, with most of the region not getting out of the 60s. High pressure builds back in for Monday, with more dry and cool conditions.

Astronomical Fall begins with the Autumnal Equinox at 8:43am Sunday. Image provided by EarthSky.org

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy with showers likely, favoring areas south of Boston, breezy. Low 57-64.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy with occasional showers and some periods of steadier rain, especially south of Boston. High 63-70.

Friday night: Plenty of clouds with more showers, again, favoring areas south of Boston, still breezy. Low 54-61.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, a few more showers around, mostly in the morning, and again, mostly south of Boston, breezy near the coast. High 61-68.

Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 50-57, a little milder across Cape Cod.

Sunday: Skies gradually become partly to mostly sunny, with the most sunshine north and west of Boston, breezy again. High 61-68.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 46-53, a little milder across Cape Cod.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 62-69.

Weekly Outlook: September 16-22, 2024

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A couple more dry and warm days are coming up, but changes are coming later this week.

Much cooler weather is expected to move in by next weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

High pressure remains in control to start the week with more sunshine and warm temperatures, though a seabreeze will keep coastal areas a little cooler. We’ll also see some high clouds start to filter the sunshine today as they stream northward from a low pressure system near the Carolinas. Clouds will continue to increase and thicken on Tuesday as that system pushes farther inland across the Carolinas, but we’ll remain dry and warm. On Wednesday, the high moves out, but it should keep enough dry air in place to prevent the rain from moving in as the low pressure system continues moving into the Mid-Atlantic states. That low will start to head eastward, spreading some rain in for Wednesday night and Thursday, but how far north the rain gets is still a big question mark. There’s a decent chance that areas north of the Mass Pike could remain dry the entire time, while there is the potential for some heavy rain as you get close to the South Coast. Exactly where this battlezone sets up will be the key to the forecast, as we’ll go from dry to very wet in just a short distance. How quickly the low pulls away is also a question mark, with the potential for rain to linger into early Friday near the South Coast. High pressure should build back in for the weekend with dry and much cooler conditions, but we could have another low pressure area lurking to the south, so we’ll need to keep an eye on that as well.

We’ll go from little to no rain to a lot over a short distance later this week. Exactly where remains to be seen. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Sunshine starts to get dimmed by some afternoon high clouds. High 77-84, cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 50-57.

Tuesday: Increasing and thickening clouds. High 79-86, cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 54-61.

Wednesday: More clouds than sun, showers possible at night, mainly near the South Coast. High 74-81.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, showers likely, mainly south of the Mass Pike. High 70-77.

Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for more showers, mainly during the morning near the South Coast, breezy, cooler. High 66-73.

Saturday: Partly sunny, breezy. High 62-69.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 62-69.

Weekend Outlook: September 13-16, 2024

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If you’re on vacation, you’ve got a nearly perfect weekend coming up.

Temperatures will remain above normal into early next week. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

For the most part, we’ve got dry weather through the early to middle of next week thanks to high pressure, but it’s a little more complicated than that. We’ll see a little fog developing tonight, but once it burns off, we’ll enjoy a warm day. A weak boundary dropping southward could trigger a stray shower or thunderstorm, favoring areas from northeastern Massachusetts into southern New Hampshire, but we’re not expecting any widespread showers. Fog may redevelop Friday night, then high pressure builds back in for the weekend with slightly cooler conditions as winds shift into the north. By Monday, the high will move offshore, winds will become southwesterly once again, and we’ll start to warm back up.

It’s been quite dry around here for a while now. That won’t change anytime soon. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

Thursday night: Partly cloudy, areas of fog develop. Low 53-60.

Friday: Mostly sunny, slight chance for a late-day shower or thunderstorm, mainly from northeastern Massachusetts into southern New Hampshire. High 79-86, little cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy, patchy fog may redevelop. Low 55-62.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 76-83, coolest along the coast.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy, a little patchy fog possible again. Low 54-61.

Sunday: Plenty of sunshine. High 74-81, coolest along the coast.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 51-58.

Monday: More sunshine. High 78-85, little cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Weekly Outlook: September 9-15, 2024

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Quiet weather is expected for most of the upcoming week.

Much of the region could receive no rain at all this week. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

We start the week off with a weak system moving through. We’ll start the day with some sunshine, but clouds will move in this afternoon, with a few showers late in the day and tonight. After that, high pressure builds in with dry weather for most of the week. Temperatures will turn warm, especially for the second half of the week when the high is offshore. We’re not expecting any records, but much of the region may see highs in the 80s toward the end of the week. A weak front may bring in some cooler weather in during the second half of the weekend, but we’ll have a better idea on that when we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

Mid to upper 80s Friday? Don’t take the AC out of the window just yet. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Morning sunshine, then increasing afternoon clouds, chance for a few late-day showers. High 68-75.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with a few showers around, some clearing late at night. Low 52-59.

Tuesday: Becoming mostly sunny. High 71-78.

Tuesday night: Clear skies, cool. Low 47-54, milder across Cape Cod.

Wednesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 72-79.

Thursday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds. High 76-83, a little cooler across Cape Cod.

Friday: Mostly sunny. High 80-87, a little cooler across Cape Cod.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 78-85, a little cooler across Cape Cod.

Sunday: Partly sunny. High 74-81.

Weekend Outlook: September 5-9, 2024

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Most of the upcoming weekend will feature some rather nice weather for early September.

Temperatures will be a little below normal over the next few days. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

High pressure will move off to the east over the next few days, with dry weather continuing into a good chunk of Saturday. Plenty of sunshine is expected on Thursday with warm temperatures, but we’ll see some clouds start to move in on Friday. The clouds will be more numerous on Saturday as a frontal system moves in from the west and low pressure passes well offshore. Saturday looks to remain dry, with showers likely holding off until evening. Showers continue Saturday night, ending early Sunday as the cold front moves through, with clearing developing in the afternoon. High pressure returns on Monday with sunshine and cooler temperatures.

The rain should be offshore by the time most of you wake up Sunday morning. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Wednesday night: Clear skies. Low 50-57.

Thursday: Plenty of sunshine. High 72-79.

Thursday night: Clear during the evening, some clouds start to move in overnight. Low 52-59.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 71-78.

Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 54-61.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, showers possible late in the day. High 70-77.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Low 53-60.

Sunday: Any lingering showers end early followed by gradual clearing. High 69-76.

Sunday night: Clear skies. Low 48-55.

Monday: Lots of sunshine. High 69-76.

Weekly Outlook: September 2-8, 2024

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We’ve got some rather nice weather coming up for much of the first week of September.

Meteorological Summer will go in the books as one of the Top 10 warmest on record across much of the Northeast. Image provided by the Southeastern Regional Climate Center.

High pressure builds into the Great Lakes today and slowly moves eastward this week. That means we’ve got dry weather through at least Friday, with cool temperatures for the first half of the week, turning milder for the second half, as the high moves offshore and winds shift into the south and southwest. As we get to the end of the week, a slow-moving frontal system will approach the region, bringing an end to our extended stretch of dry weather. Showers are likely on Saturday as a frontal system makes its way into the region. A wave of low pressure may ride along the front, which could bring in some heavier rain, but it’s too early to determine whether that will happen or not. High pressure should build back in for Sunday, but how quickly we clear out will be determined by how quickly the low pressure area pulls away from the region.

Some models show the potential for a very wet Saturday around here. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Some lingering morning clouds, especially near the South Coast, then becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 72-79.

Monday night: Clear and cool. Low 46-53.

Tuesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 67-74.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 48-55.

Wednesday: More sunshine. High 72-79.

Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 72-79.

Friday: Partly sunny. High 72-79.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with showers likely, possibly thunderstorms. High 68-75.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, any lingering showers end early. High 68-75.