For a change, it’s going to rain this weekend. The forecast itself isn’t that simple though, so let us explain.

High pressure slides off to the east tonight and clouds start to stream in ahead of a cold front currently crossing the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure will begin to develop off the Carolina coast tonight and head northward. Ahead of both of these, we’ll have a cloudy but mild day on Friday. Some showers are possible during the day, but the bulk of the activity should stay to our west. Showers will become more widespread by evening as the low pressure area to the south draws closer. The combination of the low and the approaching front will produce widespread showers with some bouts of steadier rain through Friday night and Saturday morning, tapering off during the afternoon. While the rain won’t be heavy, some places could see an inch or so by the time it winds down. By Saturday night, the cold front and the low pressure area move offshore, but an upper-level disturbance will move into the Northeast. This will allow the low to slow down or even stall out in the Gulf of Maine while intensifying. This may keep the showers around across parts of Southern Maine and Southern New Hampshire, possibly northern Massachusetts as well, but for most of us, it’ll just be a blustery and cool day with only a few showers around.

High pressure finally starts to build in for Monday with some clearing, but it will remain breezy and cool. In fact, as winds subside Monday night, and skies become clear, we’ve got a chance for our first widespread frost of the fall. So, if you’ve got some outdoor plants, you may want to prepare to bring them inside.

Thursday night: Increasing clouds. Low 46-53.
Friday: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers. High 60-67.
Friday night: Cloudy with showers likely. Low 52-59.
Saturday: Cloudy with occasional showers and some periods of steadier rain. High 57-64.
Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers ending in the evening, becoming breezy. Low 45-52.
Sunday: More clouds than sun, windy, cooler, more showers possible, especially from the Merrimack Valley northward. High 52-59.
Sunday night: Becoming partly cloudy, breezy. Low 38-45.
Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, especially in the morning. High 53-60.